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SonofaRoache

You're White Sox GM and can see a year and a half into the future....

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You are deciding on whether or not to bring up Robert and Madrigal and all of a sudden you can see into the future and you know that the highest win total in the division next season from a non Sox team is 88. You also can see you added a decent RF, Cole or Bum, Hammels to a one year deal, and a bullpen arm during FA. 

 

Option 1- Call them both up before September 1 and add 7 wins to your season total next year (not WAR) due to development and them being ready for showtime opening day.

Option 2- Bring them up after spring training and add 2 wins to your season total next year as they need a month to get adjusted and do not have the offseason to work on major league issues they have, like they can in option 1. 

Option 3- Bring them up mid April and lose two extra games next season. 

 

 

Which option would you take? Now these aren't true totals, but it very well could come down to when we call them up. 

 

 

Edited by SonofaRoache
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Calling them up in September vs. calling them up to start the 2020 season changes nothing in terms of team control so this is really option 1 vs. option 3. If I had more faith in the front office to be able to fill in the spots left behind when Giolito, Anderson, and Moncada hit free agency I think it would be worth it to maximize team control for Madrigal and Robert rather than try to maximize this particular contention window. I don't have that faith though and I want both of those guys to get a September call-up to get their feet wet and see how they will be pitched to at the MLB level.

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10 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Calling them up in September vs. calling them up to start the 2020 season changes nothing in terms of team control so this is really option 1 vs. option 3. If I had more faith in the front office to be able to fill in the spots left behind when Giolito, Anderson, and Moncada hit free agency I think it would be worth it to maximize team control for Madrigal and Robert rather than try to maximize this particular contention window. I don't have that faith though and I want both of those guys to get a September call-up to get their feet wet and see how they will be pitched to at the MLB level.

Option two exists because people may feel the players are being rushed if they come up in September. For instance, Madrigal may not reach triple A for a few weeks and a september call up could feel rushed for him. 

I agree with you about the re-signings you mentioned. I do believe the Sox have already formulated a plan of action for those guys and potential FAs. They have 5 years to figure it out so there is no excuse. 

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I would say 80 percent of the board does not want to "rush" any Sox prospect. They'd keep 'em in the minors as long as possible. This is changing just a little bit however cause of the success of Tatis and Vlad Jr. This is confusing the situation a bit regarding age of players in MLB. I personally want MLB to copy NBA and start playing these guys at 20, 21. If the new era tells us 34 is ancient for hitters, then let em start hacking away in the bigs at 21. If the new normal is 24-28 or 29, baseball is not gonna be a good sport for hitters.

Careers are gonna be cut short in the future of everyday lineup players. Let's make Tatis the RULE rather than the exception. Play 'em young. Specifically have Madrigal start next season in the bigs ditto Robert. Madrigal will be 23 next March for gosh sakes; Robert will be 22 this August. Thank goodness Eloy got the call in his age 22 season.

Edited by greg775

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Interesting thread for an off day.  If I knew that 88 wins was what it would take I'd bring up Robert but not Madrigal, mostly just because I think Nick can benefit from more time down there whereas Robert probably won't.

For your scenarios I'd go with option 1.

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54 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I would say 80 percent of the board does not want to "rush" any Sox prospect. They'd keep 'em in the minors as long as possible. This is changing just a little bit however cause of the success of Tatis and Vlad Jr. This is confusing the situation a bit regarding age of players in MLB. I personally want MLB to copy NBA and start playing these guys at 20, 21. If the new era tells us 34 is ancient for hitters, then let em start hacking away in the bigs at 21. If the new normal is 24-28 or 29, baseball is not gonna be a good sport for hitters.

Careers are gonna be cut short in the future of everyday lineup players. Let's make Tatis the RULE rather than the exception. Play 'em young. Specifically have Madrigal start next season in the bigs ditto Robert. Madrigal will be 23 next March for gosh sakes; Robert will be 22 this August. Thank goodness Eloy got the call in his age 22 season.

I wouldn't wait til next season to bring them up. I'd call Robert up in early August if he's earned it and Madrigal up in September if he's earned it. 

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1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Interesting thread for an off day.  If I knew that 88 wins was what it would take I'd bring up Robert but not Madrigal, mostly just because I think Nick can benefit from more time down there whereas Robert probably won't.

For your scenarios I'd go with option 1.

This is why it is a tough call. The division can be decided on whether or not we make these moves now or later. Cleveland and Minny won't be projected to win more than 90 games after this offseason. It would suck to realize we didn't win our division and lost a season to go after a title because we called these two up later. We would basically trade a run in 2020 for one in 2027, when we don't even know if Moncada, Timmy, McCann, Gio, Cease, Kopech or Rodon will still be here. 

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6 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

This is why it is a tough call. The division can be decided on whether or not we make these moves now or later. Cleveland and Minny won't be projected to win more than 90 games after this offseason. It would suck to realize we didn't win our division and lost a season to go after a title because we called these two up later. We would basically trade a run in 2020 for one in 2027, when we don't even know if Moncada, Timmy, McCann, Gio, Cease, Kopech or Rodon will still be here. 

You can plan a pretty picnic but you can't predict the weather! 

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I am not sure bringing them up for a month is going to make that much difference.  The other teams will expand rosters and they will face plenty of pitchers who may not be any better than AAA.  With the rules as they are I may take option 3.  It won't be popular but I gain two years of control and two players protected from rule 5 by not having Rober and Madrigal on the 40 man.  It will be more important that the young pitchers recovering from surgery do well and having enough depth to ease them back in if possible.  How many innings do you let Kopech, Rodon, Dunning and even Cease throw next year.  Remember Washington shutting down Strasburg?  This board would flip if we shut down a bunch.

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15 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I am not sure bringing them up for a month is going to make that much difference.  The other teams will expand rosters and they will face plenty of pitchers who may not be any better than AAA.  With the rules as they are I may take option 3.  It won't be popular but I gain two years of control and two players protected from rule 5 by not having Rober and Madrigal on the 40 man.  It will be more important that the young pitchers recovering from surgery do well and having enough depth to ease them back in if possible.  How many innings do you let Kopech, Rodon, Dunning and even Cease throw next year.  Remember Washington shutting down Strasburg?  This board would flip if we shut down a bunch.

I don't see pitching restrictions being a huge thing for Cease and Kopech. I also think we will sign two starters and put Lopez and Rodon in the pen, who could both emergency start if need be. The extra month or two would give them valuable experience, acclimate them to the MLB and city, and give them a chance to work on big league mistakes they made. If we call them up mid April, it may not be until June or July that they settle in.

Also note these two things. 

 

1. Their callup could be early August and that playing time would help them, even with call ups. 

2. The service year is a dangerous game because the premise would be we'd possibly lose a contention year now by calling them up mid April, for an extra year in 2026 where we don't know if our top players will be here. 

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How many innings do you give any of our pitchers coming back from Tommy John?  

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52 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

How many innings do you give any of our pitchers coming back from Tommy John?  

It is unclear if inning restrictions are even necessary. But if you restrict Kopech's innings, have him do a late spring training and pitch a few innings in the minors to rev it up until you get the year of service time back. Then call him up and let him pitch through the postseason. 

I think we should sign two starters so I'm not worried about the other recoveries being on inning limits. The Nationals were stupid. 

Edited by SonofaRoache

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13 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

It is unclear if inning restrictions are even necessary. But if you restrict Kopech's innings, have him do a late spring training and pitch a few innings in the minors to rev it up until you get the year of service time back. Then call him up and let him pitch through the postseason. 

I think we should sign two starters so I'm not worried about the other recoveries being on inning limits. The Nationals were stupid. 

You kind of have a built in buffer because of the timing of Rodon's TJS. Rodon can return and take over for Kopech when he gets shut down. Pitchers coming of TJS tend to struggle with command, so honestly I'm not sure Kopech shouldn't go down to Charlotte out of ST with the idea that he comes back up when either a) he gets his command issues settled and b) after June 1st when they get a year of service time back. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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17 hours ago, greg775 said:

I would say 80 percent of the board does not want to "rush" any Sox prospect. They'd keep 'em in the minors as long as possible. This is changing just a little bit however cause of the success of Tatis and Vlad Jr. This is confusing the situation a bit regarding age of players in MLB. I personally want MLB to copy NBA and start playing these guys at 20, 21. If the new era tells us 34 is ancient for hitters, then let em start hacking away in the bigs at 21. If the new normal is 24-28 or 29, baseball is not gonna be a good sport for hitters.

Careers are gonna be cut short in the future of everyday lineup players. Let's make Tatis the RULE rather than the exception. Play 'em young. Specifically have Madrigal start next season in the bigs ditto Robert. Madrigal will be 23 next March for gosh sakes; Robert will be 22 this August. Thank goodness Eloy got the call in his age 22 season.

Vlad Jr's only palpable success this season came has come via the home run derby. 

Just pointing that out. 

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If you through the cost and effort of adding 2 SPs, a reliever and a RF, then you have to do option 1.

I think you have numbers pegged pretty well....adding 2 good SPs, a reliever and a RF probably turns this into an 86 win team (presuming natural progression of other players, Cease sticks in the rotation, etc.), so you'll likely need those 2 extra wins.   Too close in any case.

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41 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You kind of have a built in buffer because of the timing of Rodon's TJS. Rodon can return and take over for Kopech when he gets shut down. Pitchers coming of TJS tend to struggle with command, so honestly I'm not sure Kopech shouldn't go down to Charlotte out of ST with the idea that he comes back up when either a) he gets his command issues settled and b) after June 1st when they get a year of service time back. 

Good point about Rodon, but sadly I see him needing extra time to heal. His body is just a wreck right now. I'd just sign the two FA starters and have Gio, Cease, those two, and Lopez or something if it came to it. When everyone is healthy the rest will figure itself out. 

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26 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

If you through the cost and effort of adding 2 SPs, a reliever and a RF, then you have to do option 1.

I think you have numbers pegged pretty well....adding 2 good SPs, a reliever and a RF probably turns this into an 86 win team (presuming natural progression of other players, Cease sticks in the rotation, etc.), so you'll likely need those 2 extra wins.   Too close in any case.

Bingo. I think most people want to wait until mid April to call them up, but will feel salty if we lost the division because of it. Especially if we turned it on big time later in the season and look like a true championship contender. 

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On 7/9/2019 at 5:26 PM, greg775 said:

I would say 80 percent of the board does not want to "rush" any Sox prospect. They'd keep 'em in the minors as long as possible. This is changing just a little bit however cause of the success of Tatis and Vlad Jr. This is confusing the situation a bit regarding age of players in MLB. I personally want MLB to copy NBA and start playing these guys at 20, 21. If the new era tells us 34 is ancient for hitters, then let em start hacking away in the bigs at 21. If the new normal is 24-28 or 29, baseball is not gonna be a good sport for hitters.

Careers are gonna be cut short in the future of everyday lineup players. Let's make Tatis the RULE rather than the exception. Play 'em young. Specifically have Madrigal start next season in the bigs ditto Robert. Madrigal will be 23 next March for gosh sakes; Robert will be 22 this August. Thank goodness Eloy got the call in his age 22 season.

I would have brought Robert & Madrigal up yesterday.  We have seen Moncada /Eloy/Anderson and Gio all take time to adjust to the major league game.  Use the time now when wins & losses don't matter.  They will develop faster playing at the ML level although  they will hit rough patches like the players I mentioned.  Find two starting pitchers and a Right Fielder.  We would compete for the Central next year.

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22 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I would have brought Robert & Madrigal up yesterday.  We have seen Moncada /Eloy/Anderson and Gio all take time to adjust to the major league game.  Use the time now when wins & losses don't matter.  They will develop faster playing at the ML level although  they will hit rough patches like the players I mentioned.  Find two starting pitchers and a Right Fielder.  We would compete for the Central next year.

I like it. Nice post.

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The thing is, we can only speculate as to the effectiveness of bringing Robert and Madrigal up 1) now vs. 2) in August/Sept. vs. 3) beginning of next season vs. 4) late April/May next season.  I personally don’t want the decision to bring them up to be based purely on speculation.  Also, if you bring them up this season, you are banking on the idea that you will acquire 2 mid-rotation starters, a RF better than Jay, and a contending-caliber bullpen this coming offseason.  You are also banking on both Rodon and Kopech both coming back and being effective for the majority of next season.  Lot’s of IFs to count on to justify bringing them up this season.

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13 minutes ago, asindc said:

The thing is, we can only speculate as to the effectiveness of bringing Robert and Madrigal up 1) now vs. 2) in August/Sept. vs. 3) beginning of next season vs. 4) late April/May next season.  I personally don’t want the decision to bring them up to be based purely on speculation.  Also, if you bring them up this season, you are banking on the idea that you will acquire 2 mid-rotation starters, a RF better than Jay, and a contending-caliber bullpen this coming offseason.  You are also banking on both Rodon and Kopech both coming back and being effective for the majority of next season.  Lot’s of IFs to count on to justify bringing them up this season.

Spending more money than everyone on free agents is the thing in baseball you have the most control over. Signing guys you want isn't really an "If" if you know you're willing to spend whatever it takes. Kopech is going to be a year and a half out from his surgery, he will at least be healthy but effective is certainly to be determined. Rodon's health is not something I would ever count on again, if you get anything from him before he hits free agency that's just a bonus in my eyes.

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39 minutes ago, asindc said:

The thing is, we can only speculate as to the effectiveness of bringing Robert and Madrigal up 1) now vs. 2) in August/Sept. vs. 3) beginning of next season vs. 4) late April/May next season.  I personally don’t want the decision to bring them up to be based purely on speculation.  Also, if you bring them up this season, you are banking on the idea that you will acquire 2 mid-rotation starters, a RF better than Jay, and a contending-caliber bullpen this coming offseason.  You are also banking on both Rodon and Kopech both coming back and being effective for the majority of next season.  Lot’s of IFs to count on to justify bringing them up this season.

Lots of ifs for sure. I think the Sox are looking at next year as the last developmental year of the rebuild. Guys like Kopech, Cease, Collins, Madrigal, and Robert will all be in their first full season of pro ball. 2020 will be the calm before the storm. 2021 is when this team should be ready to fully rock and roll. 

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1 hour ago, asindc said:

The thing is, we can only speculate as to the effectiveness of bringing Robert and Madrigal up 1) now vs. 2) in August/Sept. vs. 3) beginning of next season vs. 4) late April/May next season.  I personally don’t want the decision to bring them up to be based purely on speculation.  Also, if you bring them up this season, you are banking on the idea that you will acquire 2 mid-rotation starters, a RF better than Jay, and a contending-caliber bullpen this coming offseason.  You are also banking on both Rodon and Kopech both coming back and being effective for the majority of next season.  Lot’s of IFs to count on to justify bringing them up this season.

Well our FO better bank on getting quality players in FA or they need to leave. If you get two starters to pair with Gio and Cease, you can kinda take a soft blow of Kopech and Rodon needing more time or starting in the pen if it came to that. This entire rebuild is based around our FO bringing in talent to supplement our roster. Get it done or get out. 

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