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KnightsOnMintSt

What does a McCann extension look like?

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Hopefully, right now, it doesn't look like anything. As it hasn't been thought about much by the FO. 

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It will look similar to this, except with McCann instead of Brees

73206886-976E-4303-B0E6-62B1947ABF76.png

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31 minutes ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

Something like 3-year, $36 million?

Six weeks ago it would have taken something like 3 years at 6 million per year.  Now it might be about 3 years at 10 million per year.  Soon your number will be spot on.  This Is exactly what some of us were warning would happen.  

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Why were people b****ing when McCann was signed for $2.5 million? What's his arb number next year? These extension numbers are crazy. You really think his BABIP will continue over .400?

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Just now, Dick Allen said:

Why were people b****ing when McCann was signed for $2.5 million? What's his arb number next year? These extension numbers are crazy. You really think his BABIP will continue over .400?

I agree that the extension numbers being thrown around are crazy for a half season of good production. Sox absolutely can be patient as McCann is still under arbitration control next season, plenty of time to evaluate. 

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It is not time for an extension. He has a long bad track record and we control him next year. His BABIP is insane - even if he’s gotten a lot better, he won’t be THIS good, so it doesn’t make sense to pay him at this level. Give it time to see where he levels off, see if anyone else develops below him, etc., then offer during 2020. 

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There is no reason to extend McCann right now, we have him for another year.  It's also counter productive for a front office to start extension talks when he's literally never been more valuable.

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Why were people b****ing when McCann was signed for $2.5 million? What's his arb number next year? These extension numbers are crazy. You really think his BABIP will continue over .400?

I was wondering that, I'm going to assume 5 million? JT REalmuto got 5.2 mill in arb 2 with much more production and consistency. I don't know how arbs factor in all star bumps like this.

So buy out next year a bit higher, say $6 mill. Then what are you paying for a 2 year extension after that, I'd say maybe go for a wilson ramos contract of 2 for 19, so all in for 3 for 25 million?

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1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

It is not time for an extension. He has a long bad track record and we control him next year. His BABIP is insane - even if he’s gotten a lot better, he won’t be THIS good, so it doesn’t make sense to pay him at this level. Give it time to see where he levels off, see if anyone else develops below him, etc., then offer during 2020. 

I disagree. I think people are overthinking this. If McCann expects to be paid like an all star catcher then you don't extend, but he is likely not an idiot. he can guarantee extra years, get a bonus for next year, and sox can cement in place a veteran catcher his pitchers love and can mentor multiple young catchers in place. He's not going to get an extension of 3 years 60 million.

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16 minutes ago, bmags said:

I was wondering that, I'm going to assume 5 million? JT REalmuto got 5.2 mill in arb 2 with much more production and consistency. I don't know how arbs factor in all star bumps like this.

So buy out next year a bit higher, say $6 mill. Then what are you paying for a 2 year extension after that, I'd say maybe go for a wilson ramos contract of 2 for 19, so all in for 3 for 25 million?

If it's three years eight million why sweat it? That's nothing. If that's all it takes, extend him now. 3 for 25. The problem is poor Collins will be his backup 4 more seasons.

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2 hours ago, steveno89 said:

I agree that the extension numbers being thrown around are crazy for a half season of good production. Sox absolutely can be patient as McCann is still under arbitration control next season, plenty of time to evaluate. 

Being patient is silly. Don't ever criticize management.

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2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Why were people b****ing when McCann was signed for $2.5 million? What's his arb number next year? These extension numbers are crazy. You really think his BABIP will continue over .400?

With the massive caveat that nobody knows what Mccann is looking for i would wait as long as possible to re-up with him.

 

If you regress his babip down to a more sustainable 330 he's a solid regular but not a star.  Solid regular is awesome but we don't want to pay him like this is his true talent until we know it's real.  It probably isn't.

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Would Wilson Ramos be a good comp here? Had a bad 2017 but was a 2018 All Star, hit free agency at age 31, a little bit better than McCann defensively in 2018, got 2/$19 from the Mets.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Would Wilson Ramos be a good comp here? Had a bad 2017 but was a 2018 All Star, hit free agency at age 31, a little bit better than McCann defensively in 2018, got 2/$19 from the Mets.

I think it's a decent working number since there just have been quite few "middle of the road" catchers.  I 100% believe it would be somewhere in between 2/15 and 2/19, and I really don't mind those prices even assuming non-all star offensive production.

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4 hours ago, bmags said:

I disagree. I think people are overthinking this. If McCann expects to be paid like an all star catcher then you don't extend, but he is likely not an idiot. he can guarantee extra years, get a bonus for next year, and sox can cement in place a veteran catcher his pitchers love and can mentor multiple young catchers in place. He's not going to get an extension of 3 years 60 million.

Agree 100%.

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Would Wilson Ramos be a good comp here? Had a bad 2017 but was a 2018 All Star, hit free agency at age 31, a little bit better than McCann defensively in 2018, got 2/$19 from the Mets.

I’m guessing something like 3/$25M gets it done with McCann.

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I was thinking something like 5/35. For a guy with one good half of baseball, that's a lot of guaranteed money. It might work for both sides.

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9 hours ago, bmags said:

I disagree. I think people are overthinking this. If McCann expects to be paid like an all star catcher then you don't extend, but he is likely not an idiot. he can guarantee extra years, get a bonus for next year, and sox can cement in place a veteran catcher his pitchers love and can mentor multiple young catchers in place. He's not going to get an extension of 3 years 60 million.

I just think that option is still there next year.

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$16M/2YR with a club or mutual option? If he keeps this up.

He was DFA'd last year. Now he's an all-star. End result is likely somewhere in between.

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12 hours ago, poppysox said:

Six weeks ago it would have taken something like 3 years at 6 million per year.  Now it might be about 3 years at 10 million per year.  Soon your number will be spot on.  This Is exactly what some of us were warning would happen.  

And if the Sox resign McCann for one year via salary arbitration, what will the extension money look like after half a season of him OPS’ing .750?

You are making it sound like McCann is a lock to hit next year like he is now.  I wouldn’t put my money on that bet.

Edited by Moan4Yoan

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McCann is obviously due for some regression, but his xWOBA is still .345.  For reference, league average across all positions is .318.  And for comparison, here are the other All-Star catchers: Sánchez = .385, Grandal = .366, Contreras =. 354, & Realmuto = .353.

The reality is he’s not that far off from Contreras & Realmuto with the bat even if his BABIP regresses to the mean.  Outside of framing, he’s been everything you could ask for in a catcher, especially one that will continue to handle a lot of young arms.  

If you want to keep him around, the time to offer an extension is this coming offseason.  Again, something like 3/$25M seems like a fair compromise.  If he wants more, given his uncertainty with the bat, you quickly get to the point of pursuing Grandal and worrying what to do with James later.  My guess is he quickly accepts that offer though.

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