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2019 Trade Deadline Predictions


Chicago White Sox
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2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Well that sucks...we end up with nothing for Abreu.

Nope, they just re-sign him to a 2 year deal. It is fine. He can be a place holder until Vaughn is ready, and then maybe he's having a better year and making less money, so someone could be serious about trading for him when Vaughn is called up. 

The only player I'd trade off the team for these types of trash offers is Nova. If he continues to pitch well in the 2nd half and isn't traded, I'd consider bringing him back as SP insurance and a long man out of the pen. 

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Fine then, If I'm Hahn I hold on to everyone, and tell the opposition to call back when they're serious about making a deal. 

I don't disagree with what you're saying or think the Sox shouldn't start with something similar to what you're proposed deals are.  Just don't think the return for any of those three players will be as strong as the deals you proposed, if Colome and Abreu are moved.  As I said, if those deals were on the table, they'd be agreed to already. 

The same logic could be said for Mazara.  Why are the Sox getting such good returns for Abreu and Colome (relatively), and the Rangers get trash for their 24 year old Mazara?  Sorta backwards logic.   

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4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't disagree with what you're saying or think the Sox shouldn't start with something similar to what you're proposed deals are.  Just don't think the return for any of those three players will be as strong as the deals you proposed, if Colome and Abreu are moved.  As I said, if those deals were on the table, they'd be agreed to already. 

The same logic could be said for Mazara.  Why are the Sox getting such good returns for Abreu and Colome (relatively), and the Rangers get trash for their 24 year old Mazara?  Sorta backwards logic.   

Because Mazara only has 2.33 years of team control left, Boras is his agent, and he's been a ~1 WAR player since he's been called up. His value is about the same as Avi in the winter of 2017-18.  If Mazara takes off, he's certainly going to FA, and if he doesn't then you have a 1 WAR player. If you trade for Mazara, and he becomes good, he's only a two year rental. 

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Because Mazara only has 2.33 years of team control left, Boras is his agent, and he's been a ~1 WAR player since he's been called up. His value is about the same as Avi in the winter of 2017-18.  If Mazara takes off, he's certainly going to FA, and if he doesn't then you have a 1 WAR player. If you trade for Mazara, and he becomes good, he's only a two year rental. 

And Abreu has 2 months of control and gets more in return that Mazara? Lol, your logic makes no sense.  

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7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Because Mazara only has 2.33 years of team control left, Boras is his agent, and he's been a ~1 WAR player since he's been called up. His value is about the same as Avi in the winter of 2017-18.  If Mazara takes off, he's certainly going to FA, and if he doesn't then you have a 1 WAR player. If you trade for Mazara, and he becomes good, he's only a two year rental. 

And what's Abreu's control and WAR this year?

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

And Abreu has 2 months of control and gets more in return that Mazara? Lol, your logic makes no sense.  

It is different because Abreu can be better and has a track record of success, despite his last two seasons. How much of that has to do with having trash hitters and no protection? Abreu has been a 3-4 WAR player in the past. Mazara hasn't even come close to that. 

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5 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

And what's Abreu's control and WAR this year?

I know, but he has a completely different profile and a better track record than Mazara. Track record matters. Mazara hasn't even come close to Abreu's 2017. 

Abreu put up a 4.3 fWAR in 2017. In Mazara's best year he put up a 1.0 fWAR. You don't see the difference here? Abreu himself has said that he feels like he has to do it all himself. That explains a lot of his hacking and lack of OBP. Imagine if the dude could relax a little at the plate instead of pressing. 

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It is different because Abreu can be better and has a track record of success, despite his last two seasons. How much of that has to do with having trash hitters and no protection? Abreu has been a 3-4 WAR player in the past. Mazara hasn't even come close to that. 

Except he's on the decline so he probably isn't going to be better. Dude is late on 90 MPH heaters.

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1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

Except he's on the decline so he probably isn't going to be better. Dude is late on 90 MPH heaters.

How much of that has to do with him pressing because he's been surrounded by garbage hitters and how much has to do with declining skill? That is the $1M question. 

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2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I'd say very little.

And I'd disagree because Abreu himself has said as much. He said that he feels like he has to do it all himself. That is why they moved Moncada behind him, but that has affected Moncada negatively because he now doesn't have protection. Ricky won't bat Eloy 5th, so now Moncada gets the trash pitches. 

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3 hours ago, Wanne said:

Has everybody cooled on Joc Pederson?  Sounds like it's not a bad time to reach out to LA for him if they're looking for relievers.

I'm surprised I haven't seen more of this rumor...seem like an obvious fit.

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4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I know, but he has a completely different profile and a better track record than Mazara. Track record matters. Mazara hasn't even come close to Abreu's 2017. 

Abreu put up a 4.3 fWAR in 2017. In Mazara's best year he put up a 1.0 fWAR. You don't see the difference here? Abreu himself has said that he feels like he has to do it all himself. That explains a lot of his hacking and lack of OBP. Imagine if the dude could relax a little at the plate instead of pressing. 

And ichiro could have hit 50 HR a year if he wanted.  Don't believe everything you read.  Jose has never taken his walks except maybe for a brief period in the first two seasons he was in MLB.  He's lost bat speed and now is flying open and pull happy that's not going to help with his outside slider problem it's just made it worse.

Has absolutely nothing to do with "protection".  If he was seeing so many shitty pitches he should be taking a helluva lot more walks.  But he's not.  So what does that tell you?  That he thinks he's helping the team by grounding into a double play or striking out?  No, it tells you fans and perhaps Jose himself are reaching for excuses instead of facing reality and that is that he's a declining slugger that has always had a problem laying off junk outside.

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Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

I don't mind this because tomorrow is going to be fucking nuts.  Force teams to buy or sell at an earlier date and let Chaos ensue.  

Maybe some of these teams close should have brought in FA's over the off season.

I hope you're right.  And your 2nd point is spot on and hopefully one the Sox understand for this offseason.

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3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Especially because he has voiced displeasure about his playing time recently

And the fact they shoved him over to play 1B much to his disliking. Dodgers have a glut out OFs...they need help in the pen. It'll boil down to how bad they want good bullpen help. I'm not one to want to trade Colome just to trade him...need to have a good return for him or no dice.

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