Midseason Top 30 at Baseball America

[Y2Jimmy0]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/chicago-white-sox-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/

This is a really interesting list at Baseball America. 

1. Luis Robert

2. Andrew Vaughn

3. Dylan Cease

4. Michael Kopech

5. Nick Madrigal

6. Matthew Thompson RHP 

Thompson has a high-end, if inconsistent, fastball that has touched the mid-90s. He couples it with a snappy slider and a projectable frame that could lead to a power profile.

7. Andrew Dalquist RHP 

Chicago’s third-rounder in the 2019 draft, Dalquist couples a three-pitch mix fronted by an above-average fastball with a projectable frame and easy delivery. He also earned a strong reputation as a strike-thrower.

8. Blake Rutherford OF

Rutherford started the season slowly but has worked diligently to adopt a more all-fields approach. He’s been extremely impressive in the second half and has begun showing the power he’ll need in order to fit in a corner outfield spot.

9. Steele Walker OF

10. Luis Gonzalez OF 

The rest is littered with young guys. 

11. Dane Dunning

12. Zack Collins

13. Micker Adolfo

14. Gavin Sheets

15. Jonathan Stiever

16. James Beard

17. Konnor Pilkington

18. Bryce Bush

19. Anderson Comas

20. Luis Mieses

21. Ian Hamilton

22. Alec Hansen

23. Luis Alexander Basabe

24. Lenyn Sosa

25. Caberea Weaver

26. Codi Heuer

27. DJ Gladney

28. Seby Zavala

29. Jake Burger

30. Kodi Medeiros 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

A lot of new names. Honestly a little surprised Basabe fell so far. I figured some of the injuries he’s had would have been taken into consideration.

[Timmy U]

19 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

A lot of new names. Honestly a little surprised Basabe fell so far. I figured some of the injuries he’s had would have been taken into consideration.

I think they were, and they decided to bail on him.  Most prospects fail to reach their full upside.  That's why it's upside.  And as we see guys turning 23, 24, 25, the prospect hounds abandon them.  It's interesting how many super young guys make the list.  Clearly, BA is interested in long-term potential.  Maybe Basabe is starting to seem to them like a 4th outfielder or an up and down guy.

[turnin' two]

30 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

A lot of new names. Honestly a little surprised Basabe fell so far. I figured some of the injuries he’s had would have been taken into consideration.

He just hasn't hit enough.  Obviously the tools are there, but he just hasn't hit enough.  Simple as that.  The tools only carry you so far.  He is advanced and old enough where the results matter. 

[Perfect Vision]

I know a lot of people are down on Blake Rutherford, but I think he still has a good chance of making it as an average or better MLB player.  He's trending towards a .280+ batting average on the season (which is pretty impressive considering his terrible first 2 months).  He hit .293 last year.  I know the power numbers are low, but there are plenty of examples of players hitting for a good average but low power in the minors, who develop power in their mid-20s (Michael Brantley and Scooter Gennett are a couple guys who come to mind).

[mqr]

21 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

He just hasn't hit enough.  Obviously the tools are there, but he just hasn't hit enough.  Simple as that.  The tools only carry you so far.  He is advanced and old enough where the results matter. 

As soon as he broke his hand, you pretty much knew he would have a tough time producing for a while and then he started getting leg injuries. I'm not writing him off.

[TaylorStSox]

11 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I know a lot of people are down on Blake Rutherford, but I think he still has a good chance of making it as an average or better MLB player.  He's trending towards a .280+ batting average on the season (which is pretty impressive considering his terrible first 2 months).  He hit .293 last year.  I know the power numbers are low, but there are plenty of examples of players hitting for a good average but low power in the minors, who develop power in their mid-20s (Michael Brantley and Scooter Gennett are a couple guys who come to mind).

I agree. Outside of the top 6, I think Rutherford is easily the most likely to stick on MLB team for years. Nothing really wows you, but he's good at pretty much everything. 

 

From the pitching side, I feel similarly about Pilkington. Again, nothing really wows you, but when I watch his videos and look at his make up, I see a guy that's going to have a nice career as a 4th/5th starter. There's a lot of value in that. 

Edited July 19, 2019 by TaylorStSox

[SoxAce]

22 minutes ago, mqr said:

As soon as he broke his hand, you pretty much knew he would have a tough time producing for a while and then he started getting leg injuries. I'm not writing him off.

He'll probably be fine next year. I doubt he's still 100% and similar to Robert last year is kind of just riding out the season. He hit a couple of balls at the warning track in the games I saw that probably go out if his hand is healthy.

[bmags]

Little sad to not see any of the upstart AZL guys there. 

[caulfield12]

Thompson and Dalquist really flew up the list in a hurry.

Poor Burger...hard to imagine many Top 15-20 picks in that year’s first round are already out of their organization’s Top 25-30 lists.

[SoxAce]

3 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

A lot of new names. Honestly a little surprised Basabe fell so far. I figured some of the injuries he’s had would have been taken into consideration.

Injuries definitely had a hand in their rankings. Adolfo by talent alone should be a walking top 5 prospect in this org, but the kid is made of glass.

[Jack Parkman]

I told everyone not to write off Rutherford. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Interesting list.  The Basabe ranking is quite frankly ridiculous and I fully expect them to look like assholes a year from now when his hand is fully recovered.

[OneDog847]

18 hours ago, Perfect Vision said:

I know a lot of people are down on Blake Rutherford, but I think he still has a good chance of making it as an average or better MLB player.  He's trending towards a .280+ batting average on the season (which is pretty impressive considering his terrible first 2 months).  He hit .293 last year.  I know the power numbers are low, but there are plenty of examples of players hitting for a good average but low power in the minors, who develop power in their mid-20s (Michael Brantley and Scooter Gennett are a couple guys who come to mind).

It's nice to see Rutherford having a nice second half but his OPS is still below 700.  He needs to get it closer to 800 in my opinion before I consider him a legit prospect. 

Do you think he repeats AA next year? 

16 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Thompson and Dalquist really flew up the list in a hurry.

Poor Burger...hard to imagine many Top 15-20 picks in that year’s first round are already out of their organization’s Top 25-30 lists.

Is Burger even going to get on the field this year? I thought he was supposed to be back the beginning of June? 

Also, no Zack Burdi in the top 30 either. Looking more and more like he is one of the 15% percent that never return from Tommy John. 

[caulfield12]

34 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

It's nice to see Rutherford having a nice second half but his OPS is still below 700.  He needs to get it closer to 800 in my opinion before I consider him a legit prospect. 

Do you think he repeats AA next year? 

Is Burger even going to get on the field this year? I thought he was supposed to be back the beginning of June? 

Also, no Zack Burdi in the top 30 either. Looking more and more like he is one of the 15% percent that never return from Tommy John. 

They now expect Burger not to play until the fall or winter ball...

[NotHahn]

Mercedes?

[Y2Jimmy0]

7 minutes ago, NotHahn said:

Mercedes?

Yermin Mercedes? No. He's an org guy. I just did my top 40 list for FutureSox and I didn't include him. 

[NotHahn]

5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Yermin Mercedes? No. He's an org guy. I just did my top 40 list for FutureSox and I didn't include him. 

Just an org guy who is crushing AAA. Seriously? 1.028 OPS. 7 hr 26 RBI in 21 games at AAA. At this point he might be the best catching prospect we have in the org.

[Y2Jimmy0]

9 minutes ago, NotHahn said:

Just an org guy who is crushing AAA. Seriously? 1.028 OPS. 7 hr 26 RBI in 21 games at AAA. At this point he might be the best catching prospect we have in the org.

He's not a catcher though. He can't play the position in the majors. He's a 26 year old with a bad body destroying International League pitching. He might be able to hit but we don't typically rank 26 year old designated hitters 

[TaylorStSox]

4 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

It's nice to see Rutherford having a nice second half but his OPS is still below 700.  He needs to get it closer to 800 in my opinion before I consider him a legit prospect. 

Do you think he repeats AA next year? 

Is Burger even going to get on the field this year? I thought he was supposed to be back the beginning of June? 

Also, no Zack Burdi in the top 30 either. Looking more and more like he is one of the 15% percent that never return from Tommy John. 

I think you move Rutherford up to AAA next year. He'll probably struggle in the first half again. Have him repeat AAA and look for a September call up in 21.

[NotHahn]

36 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

He's not a catcher though. He can't play the position in the majors. He's a 26 year old with a bad body destroying International League pitching. He might be able to hit but we don't typically rank 26 year old designated hitters 

How do you know or where did you read that he can't play catcher? Hes 5'11 225. Very compareable to some good mlb catchers. He has thrown out a decent amount of runners. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

5 minutes ago, NotHahn said:

How do you know or where did you read that he can't play catcher? Hes 5'11 225. Very compareable to some good mlb catchers. He has thrown out a decent amount of runners. 

A few of our writers at FutureSox have seen him play quite a bit in person. We've also talked to team broadcasters and others who have spoken to scouts. He can't play catcher. Could he be a DH? Possibly. Those guys aren't really considered prospects though. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

9 minutes ago, NotHahn said:

How do you know or where did you read that he can't play catcher? Hes 5'11 225. Very compareable to some good mlb catchers. He has thrown out a decent amount of runners. 

Just because a guy can throw hard doesn't make them a good catcher. Just google him. There are plenty of reports saying he is well below average behind the plate. Believe Y2Jimmy0, he's a DH. Just look at this year alone - 13 PB in just 45 games at catcher. Collins, who everyone also says is a future 1B, has just 3 in 32 games.

[NotHahn]

23 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Just because a guy can throw hard doesn't make them a good catcher. Just google him. There are plenty of reports saying he is well below average behind the plate. Believe Y2Jimmy0, he's a DH. Just look at this year alone - 13 PB in just 45 games at catcher. Collins, who everyone also says is a future 1B, has just 3 in 32 games.

Can't base how good a catcher is on just pb stats. Some of that's on the pitcher.

Someone has got to catch. Whether it be Collins, Mercedes or Zavala. 

Even if Mercedes is the backup catcher or DH he should probably be on the list. Burger is most likely a DH. Or is it the fact that at 26 he is too old to be on a prospect list?

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

5 minutes ago, NotHahn said:

Can't base how good a catcher is on just pb stats. Some of that's on the pitcher.

Someone has got to catch. Whether it be Collins, Mercedes or Zavala. 

Even if Mercedes is the backup catcher or DH he should probably be on the list. Burger is most likely a DH. Or is it the fact that at 26 he is too old to be on a prospect list?

Sure, PB are not a great stat to base a catchers defensive skill on, but look at his career. He is terrible compared to other catchers minor league stats. If you don't want to believe me, fine, but google him and see for yourself what the consensus is on him. 

From an Eric Logenhagen FG chat on 6/28/19:

Quote

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s super fun to watch hit but he’s a bad-bodied 26 year old beating up Double-A pitching and he’s a below average receiver. Maybe he’s an offensive-first backup or 3rd catcher?