Free Agency - How confident are you?

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Call it what you want to call it, but Wheeler has made more starts since 2017 than Bumgarner.  He also has much less mileage on his arm and the stuff remains top-end.  You’re too focused on the need for a lefty IMO.

Only because of Bumgarner's non-baseball freak injury. He crashed his ATV. Bumgarner has still been good this year, and he's been really good down the stretch. I question guys that have great stuff and poor results like Wheeler. His FIP/xFIP look good but he's put up results that are worse than Nova. Javy Vazquez anyone? 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10310&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5524&position=P

They're pretty similar advanced stat wise IMO. 

 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wheeler >>>>>> Bumgarner IMO

I would rather have Wheeler which sounds crazy, but when you factor in expected cost I think it's even easier 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Only because of Bumgarner's non-baseball freak injury. He crashed his ATV. Bumgarner has still been good this year, and he's been really good down the stretch. I question guys that have great stuff and poor results like Wheeler. His FIP/xFIP look good but he's put up results that are worse than Nova. Javy Vazquez anyone? 

Wheeler’s career ERA, FIP, & xFIP are within 0.12 points of each other...

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wheeler’s career ERA, FIP, & xFIP are within 0.12 points of each other...

I'm not talking about his career stats, I'm talking about 2019. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I would rather have Wheeler which sounds crazy, but when you factor in expected cost I think it's even easier 

I really don’t think it’s all that crazy.  And I agree, Bumgarner will get at least one more year due to his track record and the fact he’s a lefty.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I really don’t think it’s all that crazy.  And I agree, Bumgarner will get at least one more year due to his track record and the fact he’s a lefty.

So you’re drawing these sweeping conclusions of Wheeler (including calling him Javy Vasquez) based on 25 starts?

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you’re drawing these sweeping conclusions of Wheeler (including calling him Javy Vasquez) based on 25 starts?

When stuff like that happens you have to ask yourself why. 

Again, I just want a decent LHP in the rotation, where Bumgarner is pretty much the only option. I don't necessarily agree that Wheeler will get that much less than Bumgarner.

If you guys like him so much there has to be teams that like him too. IMO Bumgarner will get a deal similar to Corbin and Wheeler's floor is 5/110. He's better than Samardzija and JS got 5/100. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[turnin' two]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Call it what you want to call it, but Wheeler has made more starts since 2017 than Bumgarner.  He also has much less mileage on his arm and the stuff remains top-end.  You’re too focused on the need for a lefty IMO.

Another hazard with Bum, is that he is pitching, not only in the NL, but in an extreme pitchers park.  

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Another hazard with Bum, is that he is pitching, not only in the NL, but in an extreme pitchers park.  

You could say the same about Wheeler. Citi isn't quite as pitcher friendly as AT&T and PetCo but it's not that far away either. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[turnin' two]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You could say the same about Wheeler. Citi isn't quite as pitcher friendly as AT&T and PetCo but it's not that far away either. 

Very fair point.  Honestly, I am very underwhelmed by the thought of Bum, Wheeler, Wood and the other 2nd tier pitching options.  

[ChiSox59]

I just really don't see the Bumgarner leaving NL, let alone the NL West.  He's a decent fallback option, but he would be towards the back of my top 5.  

1. Cole

2. Strasburg

3. Ryu

4. Wheeler

5. Bumgarner

6. Keuchel

7. Kyle Gibson

8. Alex Wood (tho I love him as the 2nd signing if we one of the top 4 guys on my list)

9. Odorizzi

10. Cole Hamels

 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I just really don't see the Bumgarner leaving NL, let alone the NL West.  He's a decent fallback option, but he would be towards the back of my top 5.  

1. Cole

2. Strasburg

3. Ryu

4. Wheeler

5. Bumgarner

6. Keuchel

7. Kyle Gibson

8. Alex Wood (tho I love him as the 2nd signing if we one of the top 4 guys on my list)

9. Odorizzi

10. Cole Hamels

 

I want nothing do do with Ryu. 

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I want nothing do do with Ryu. 

yah, who want the guy with a career era below 3.00 across over 700 innings!

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

yah, who want the guy with a career era below 3.00 across over 700 innings!

He's an injury waiting to happen. 

[GermanSoxFan]

There is also the possibility of Archer becoming a FA, would love him on the team if they are going to sign 2 pitchers.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, GermanSoxFan said:

There is also the possibility of Archer becoming a FA, would love him on the team if they are going to sign 2 pitchers.

I don't think they are, unless they plan to use a pitcher to grab a RF. 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

He's an injury waiting to happen. 

He does get injured alot.  He is also super fucking good when he is healthy.  And you could maybe get him on a Charlie Morton-ish deal like 2/$30 or 3/$45 type deal.

With Kopech joining the rotation at some point in May or June (if not earlier) and Rodon coming back and Cease still on some sort of inning restriction, having a guy like Ryu that may need spend a month on the DL isn't the end of the world if they sign 2 SP (for this example, lets say Ryu and Wood).

OD Rotation: Giolito, Ryu, Cease, Lopez, Wood

Rotation by June: Giolito, Ryu, Kopech, Cease, Lopez....Wood

Rotation by whenever Rodon returns: Giolito, Ryu, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Wood, Rodon

Options....

[daggins]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

He's an injury waiting to happen. 

He's not waiting, he's already injured all the time. Unless that's what you meant.

Anyways any signing of Ryu is a calculated risk, given that he's unlikely to top 120 innings in any given year, and probably will provide less than that. They'll be good innings though.

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think they are, unless they plan to use a pitcher to grab a RF. 

With Hahn hinting that Kopech probably starts the year in AAA, there is pretty good chance they sign 2 SP IMO.  However, I definitely think the 2nd SP would be more of depth piece that could be moved to pen.  Wood/Wacha/Nova type.  

Edited August 26, 2019 by ChiSox59

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, daggins said:

He's not waiting, he's already injured all the time. Unless that's what you meant.

Anyways any signing of Ryu is a calculated risk, given that he's unlikely to top 120 innings in any given year, and probably will provide less than that. They'll be good innings though.

Yes, that's what I meant. He's been pretty healthy this year but that is the aberration. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

With Hahn hinting that Kopech probably starts the year in AAA, there is pretty good chance they sign 2 SP IMO.  

No way, they're not doing that. That would be beyond dumb. If they're signing a 2nd SP it would be a guy in the Wood/Nova range and not a top FA. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

No way, they're not doing that. 

Lol, ok,

Are you referring to starting Kopech in AAA or signing 2 SP?  

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, ok,

Are you referring to starting Kopech in AAA or signing 2 SP?  

Starting Kopech in AAA. I know why they'd do it but it seems beyond dumb. I'd like to see what his control is like in ST before making that decision. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[GermanSoxFan]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

No way, they're not doing that. That would be beyond dumb. If they're signing another SP it would be a guy in the Wood/Nova range and not a top FA. 

Why would it be beyond dumb to start Kopech in AAA. Dude won’t have faced hitters for 18 months at that point.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Starting Kopech in AAA. 

Direct quote from Hahn:

"At some point next year you can expect Kopech to join us.  I just don't know when he is going to be on the major league active roster.  His rehab has gone wonderfully, he is perfectly on pace and is going to be in spring training without restriction, and he is going to be over 18 months removed from having thrown a pitch in anger.  So let's let the kid develop and when he is ready, he is going to be back."

But, sure.  No chance!