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Free Agency - How confident are you?

The winter of our discontent   

146 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think will REALLY happen this winter?

    • I'm confident they'll land a big fish (e.g. Cole)
      7
    • I'm confident they'll land a solid FA (e.g. Grandal) that actually makes an impact
      45
    • I think any FA signings will fall in the "decent" range
      31
    • I'm hoping beyond hope that the FO can get out of their own way and at least sign one person that's not crap
      29
    • This winter is going to be another pile of hot garbage
      34


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3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

They’ve also gotten 5.3 fWAR just this season for the joy of trading away James Shields and Fernando Rodney.

But yeah, usually trading for 1B/DH types...especially on $140+ million contracts, isn’t wise.   You would have made a better argument combining the $$$ for Myers and Shields to get just 0.7 fWAR.  

Which is pretty much the sum of the value the White Sox received from Nova, Santana, Alonso, Jay and Herrera for roughly the same amount this year.

I thought this thread was about free agency? The only guys mentioned above who were acquired via free agency are Santana, Jay, and Herrera and those three aren’t even in the same stratosphere (total $$$ and AAav) when compared to the Hosmer and Machado signings. Getting two $100M+ signings wrong is crippling for a franchise like SD (or the White Sox for that matter).

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37 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I thought this thread was about free agency? The only guys mentioned above who were acquired via free agency are Santana, Jay, and Herrera and those three aren’t even in the same stratosphere (total $$$ and AAav) when compared to the Hosmer and Machado signings. Getting two $100M+ signings wrong is crippling for a franchise like SD (or the White Sox for that matter).

If every free agent is worth approximately $9 million on the free agent market and Machado will finish the year around 4 at his current pace, then what’s the problem?

How are they crippled?  They’re all the way up to 14th in attendance, which is well above any AL Central team.

They only have a payroll of $97 million, which is about $27.5 million less than the average MLB opening day payroll.

They can carry those contracts (Machado, Hosmer and Shields) and still have room to add a veteran starting pitcher because the rest of their payroll is comprised of mostly 1st to 3rd year players, with the exception of Kirby Yates.

 

By your argument, we shouldn’t sign any big free agents because, as Balta has pointed out numerous times, the majority go against the teams that signed them and can occasionally be franchise crippling.

That said, if we were crippled by Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and John Danks, then just sell the franchise and enjoy the profits so White Sox fans can move on.

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3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

If every free agent is worth approximately $9 million on the free agent market and Machado will finish the year around 4 at his current pace, then what’s the problem?

How are they crippled?  They’re all the way up to 14th in attendance, which is well above any AL Central team.

They only have a payroll of $97 million, which is about $27.5 million less than the average MLB opening day payroll.

They can carry those contracts (Machado, Hosmer and Shields) and still have room to add a veteran starting pitcher because the rest of their payroll is comprised of mostly 1st to 3rd year players, with the exception of Kirby Yates.

 

By your argument, we shouldn’t sign any big free agents because, as Balta has pointed out numerous times, the majority go against the teams that signed them and can occasionally be franchise crippling.

That said, if we were crippled by Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and John Danks, then just sell the franchise and enjoy the profits so White Sox fans can move on.

The problem is they are about to get ~4 fWAR for ~$50M spent this season on their two premier free agent signings in what most would consider their “prime” age seasons. Do you expect their production to increase as they age over the next 6-9 years of their contracts? If this is their production during their prime years and they are only getting ~4 fWAR from two guys that account for ~35-45% of the team payroll, that’s a big problem for the Padres now and in the future.

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MadBum turning up the jets down the stretch. Dude is just a winner and elevates his game when the team needs him most. I hope he's willing to leave the west coast. I'd love to have a guy like him here and he wouldn't break the bank as much as Cole or Strasburg. 

That being said, he's spent his entire career in an extreme pitchers park and who knows what he'd do in a bandbox like GRF. 

GRF is weird in that it gives up a ton of HR but otherwise suppresses XBH, leading to a neutral park factor. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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35 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

MadBum turning up the jets down the stretch. Dude is just a winner and elevates his game when the team needs him most. I hope he's willing to leave the west coast. I'd love to have a guy like him here and he wouldn't break the bank as much as Cole or Strasburg. 

That being said, he's spent his entire career in an extreme pitchers park and who knows what he'd do in a bandbox like GRF. 

GRF is weird in that it gives up a ton of HR but otherwise suppresses XBH, leading to a neutral park factor. 

He'd be a very interesting fit except he has this issue with people celebrating home runs that makes me concerned about his fit in the locker room with this roster. 

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19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He'd be a very interesting fit except he has this issue with people celebrating home runs that makes me concerned about his fit in the locker room with this roster. 

I agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment. It's a risk I'd be willing to take though. 

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3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The problem is they are about to get ~4 fWAR for ~$50M spent this season on their two premier free agent signings in what most would consider their “prime” age seasons. Do you expect their production to increase as they age over the next 6-9 years of their contracts? If this is their production during their prime years and they are only getting ~4 fWAR from two guys that account for ~35-45% of the team payroll, that’s a big problem for the Padres now and in the future.

How is that negative fWAR?  You mean estimated?

They’re going to get roughly 4.5 for Machado and Hosmer.  Not great, but hardly crippling with the remainder of their roster construction.

Balta would tell you that rate of return for Hahn FA signings (had Hahn inked them) definitely is not bad compared to his historical record.

Machado had 21.7 over his previous 4 seasons for an average of 5.4, which would obviously be better than 4.  It’s not like he’s repeating 2017, though.

The real problems are Hosmer and Myers, but Myers was good last year and they traded Reyes in order to open up more playing time and bring in an exciting prospect in Taylor Trammell.  They got Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney, and an unnamed SS for virtually nothing.

The moral of the story is don’t overpay 1B/DH/corner outfielders in free agency.  That said, the White Sox have and still face the same problem.   The Yankees solved it by coming up with Tauchman and Urshela.   The Dodgers with Muncy, Taylor and Turner.  

The best organizations fill roster holes or cover up payroll issues by innovating and exploiting niches.

Can Rick Hahn do the same?

Edited by caulfield12

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

MadBum turning up the jets down the stretch. Dude is just a winner and elevates his game when the team needs him most. I hope he's willing to leave the west coast. I'd love to have a guy like him here and he wouldn't break the bank as much as Cole or Strasburg. 

That being said, he's spent his entire career in an extreme pitchers park and who knows what he'd do in a bandbox like GRF. 

GRF is weird in that it gives up a ton of HR but otherwise suppresses XBH, leading to a neutral park factor. 

Bumgarner’s pitching so well down the stretch he’s adding another year and $20-30 million onto his contract demands.

Of course, he could end up similar to Keuchel if he gets too greedy and isn’t totally honest about future vs. present/past values.  Lots of FA’s have too much pride and feel they should be getting bank for 2010/12/14 when it’s now five years in the past.

 

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

How is that negative fWAR?  You mean estimated?

They’re going to get roughly 4.5 for Machado and Hosmer.  Not great, but hardly crippling with the remainder of their roster construction.

Balta would tell you that rate of return for Hahn FA signings (had Hahn inked them) definitely is not bad compared to his historical record.

Machado had 21.7 over his previous 4 seasons for an average of 5.4, which would obviously be better than 4.  It’s not like he’s repeating 2017, though.

The real problems are Hosmer and Myers, but Myers was good last year and they traded Reyes in order to open up more playing time and bring in an exciting prospect in Taylor Trammell.  They got Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney, and an unnamed SS for virtually nothing.

The moral of the story is don’t overpay 1B/DH/corner outfielders in free agency.  That said, the White Sox have and still face the same problem.   The Yankees solved it by coming up with Tauchman and Urshela.   The Dodgers with Muncy, Taylor and Turner.  

The best organizations fill roster holes or cover up payroll issues by innovating and exploiting niches.

Can Rick Hahn do the same?

Yes, estimated. Padres season is 73.5% complete. Those two guys stand at 3.0 fWAR currently. My math shows 4.08 fWAR or ~4 fWAR at season’s end based on their current rate of production.

If the Sox make two splashy signings this winter (say Madbum and Strasburg because god knows they need starting pitching help), you would be satisfied if those two guys combined for 4 fWAR next season? That’s a very low bar to set for two high profile FA signings.

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1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yes, estimated. Padres season is 73.5% complete. Those two guys stand at 3.0 fWAR currently. My math shows 4.08 fWAR or ~4 fWAR at season’s end based on their current rate of production.

If the Sox make two splashy signings this winter (say Madbum and Strasburg because god knows they need starting pitching help), you would be satisfied if those two guys combined for 4 fWAR next season? That’s a very low bar to set for two high profile FA signings.

Pick any position players besides Grandal and Rendon and the same is likely to occur...and even Grandal will hit an aging curve unless he spends more time at DH/1B, where his value is lowered substantially.

I’m not being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to pick the right free agents, Hahn is.

And those two players weren’t as crippling as Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche turned out to be...and trading Semien/Bassitt for Shark.  Those moves are what basically forced the rebuild, because the Sox had nothing in their minor league system to fall back on.

And the White Sox are never going to shell out $175-225 million on two free agent pitchers anyway.  You would have gotten more believers that we were going to sign Machado and Harper than the two pitchers you just named.

 

So your suggestion is to do what exactly...they have nobody to trade that’s not critical to the rebuild?

Edited by caulfield12

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13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Pick any position players besides Grandal and Rendon and the same is likely to occur...and even Grandal will hit an aging curve unless he spends more time at DH/1B, where his value is lowered substantially.

I’m not being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to pick the right free agents, Hahn is.

And those two players weren’t as crippling as Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche turned out to be...and trading Semien/Bassitt for Shark.  Those moves are what basically forced the rebuild, because the Sox had nothing in their minor league system to fall back on.

And the White Sox are never going to shell out $175-225 million on two free agent pitchers anyway.  You would have gotten more believers that we were going to sign Machado and Harper than the two pitchers you just named.

 

So your suggestion is to do what exactly...they have nobody to trade that’s not critical to the rebuild?

Sign pitching (multiple starters and relievers) and a RF (Puig most likely).

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10 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sign pitching (multiple starters and relievers) and a RF (Puig most likely).

And that worked fine in 2004-05, but most of that was just dumb luck, because it has only been repeated once in 14 years.

Hahn tries that every year and we ended up with Nova, Santana and Banuelos.  

The logical thing is to sign one first tier guy and then someone like a Wood or Wacha and hope for a rebound.  The problem is we almost always get 2-3 guys who nobody would put on a top ten list (other than Dunn and Robertson) and just hope for the best.

Puig, Castellanos (price rising by the day) and Ozuna are three obvious choices, but none are LH and the first two should give you 1.5-2.0ish fWAR But not really move the bar all that much, either.

God knows what Puig would do to the clubhouse chemistry when he doesn’t have a firm hand like Francona to rein him in.

 

 

Edited by caulfield12

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I'm fairly confident that at least one ace will emerge from the Giolito/Kopech/Cease trio. There is a decent chance they get two. I'm not as concerned about a TOR starter as most here. Wheeler or Bumgarner are fine with me. The only thing they need is a couple 2-4 WAR pitchers. Honest to god I'd give Lopez one more year and if that doesn't work I'd bring back Quintana. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

And that worked fine in 2004-05, but most of that was just dumb luck, because it has only been repeated once in 14 years.

Hahn tries that every year and we ended up with Nova, Santana and Banuelos.  

The logical thing is to sign one first tier guy and then someone like a Wood or Wacha and hope for a rebound.  The problem is we almost always get 2-3 guys who nobody would put on a top ten list (other than Dunn and Robertson) and just hope for the best.

Puig, Castellanos (price rising by the day) and Ozuna are three obvious choices, but none are LH and the first two should give you 1.5-2.0ish fWAR But not really move the bar all that much, either.

God knows what Puig would do to the clubhouse chemistry when he doesn’t have a firm hand like Francona to rein him in.

 

 

I’m not advocating for signing the lowest tier of free agent starting pitchers. Sox should have plenty of cash to pick 2 from the following group:

Cole, Madbum, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, Keuchel, Strasburg.

Any two of those would be a tremendous upgrade to the rotation and the Sox should certainly be able to afford it based on current payroll obligations. Puig would be a fine option for the present black hole in RF and he’d be among fellow Cubans as teammates. Spectacular? No but an immediate and noticeable upgrade over what they’ve put out there this season.

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1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not advocating for signing the lowest tier of free agent starting pitchers. Sox should have plenty of cash to pick 2 from the following group:

Cole, Madbum, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, Keuchel, Strasburg.

Any two of those would be a tremendous upgrade to the rotation and the Sox should certainly be able to afford it based on current payroll obligations. Puig would be a fine option for the present black hole in RF and he’d be among fellow Cubans as teammates. Spectacular? No but an immediate and noticeable upgrade over what they’ve put out there this season.

Keuchel hasn’t been good with the Braves, but it’s hard to get a full measure of all those players who ended up beginning at mid season...the majority of time, it goes disastrously, and that’s been the case for Kimbrel as well.  How much is aging/lost stuff and how much is rustiness will take until next April/May to sort out.

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Keuchel hasn’t been good with the Braves, but it’s hard to get a full measure of all those players who ended up beginning at mid season...the majority of time, it goes disastrously, and that’s been the case for Kimbrel as well.  How much is aging/lost stuff and how much is rustiness will take until next April/May to sort out.

Keuchel would be a fine #4/5. A certain upgrade over the likes of Covey, Detweiler, Banuelos, etc.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Keuchel would be a fine #4/5. A certain upgrade over the likes of Covey, Detweiler, Banuelos, etc.

Except he’s on your Tier A list...he has the “brand” name, but you’re still paying a 25% premium for that alone.

Ideally, they should get at least one guy you could squint and say belongs in the front of a strong MLB rotation.

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16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except he’s on your Tier A list...he has the “brand” name, but you’re still paying a 25% premium for that alone.

Ideally, they should get at least one guy you could squint and say belongs in the front of a strong MLB rotation.

Tier A is Cole and Strasburg. The rest are Tier B.

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15 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Tier A is Cole and Strasburg. The rest are Tier B.

I do wonder how the tax vote next year might impact us in free agency. Any decent agent would advise their clients that Illinois might be substantially increasing the state income tax, making it a less desirable place to sign? 

While perhaps not a primary concern, I'm sure this will come up if it passes.

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25 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I do wonder how the tax vote next year might impact us in free agency. Any decent agent would advise their clients that Illinois might be substantially increasing the state income tax, making it a less desirable place to sign? 

While perhaps not a primary concern, I'm sure this will come up if it passes.

They don't have a problem signing them in CA. 

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On 8/14/2019 at 12:14 PM, Jack Parkman said:

I'm fairly confident that at least one ace will emerge from the Giolito/Kopech/Cease trio. There is a decent chance they get two. I'm not as concerned about a TOR starter as most here. Wheeler or Bumgarner are fine with me. The only thing they need is a couple 2-4 WAR pitchers. Honest to god I'd give Lopez one more year and if that doesn't work I'd bring back Quintana. 

Sure you can be confident on or 2 emerging all you want but when is the question ? You can't wait on the when and that's why a TOR starter is necessary now.

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