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Dickie Kerr

40 Man Trash

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3 hours ago, Dan of Steel said:

That's not how it works. You're the one making the claim that the optimism should be doubted, so the burden of proof is actually on YOU. Someone has debunked your brief correctly. It's now your job to try and debunk his proof.

As someone else correctly posted, 26-40 is pretty much irrelevant.

Of the 23 players you mentioned, pretty much all of them won't be on the team in 2020, much less 2021. So to use that list to doubt the future is not a strong platform to support your argument.

The Sox farm is stacked and there's a lot of guys currently on the IL (I mean A LOT) that will be off it in 2020. Plenty of talent that is still waiting in the wings. Just have to look a little. 

 

If that’s the case, who would the Mets take for 2 1/2 years of Thor without touching one of the core rebuild pieces in Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn and Dunning (whose value is off 25-50% until he can prove he’s healthy and stuff is back)?

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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

If that’s the case, who would the Mets take for 2 1/2 years of Thor without touching one of the core rebuild pieces in Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn and Dunning (whose value is off 25-50% until he can prove he’s healthy and stuff is back)?

What team(s) would be able to make a deal for Thor using only their 7th best prospect?

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23 hours ago, EloyJenkins said:

Good thing you only need 25 for a roster. The starting lineup by 2021 will be incredible. We just need to relax through this absolute garbage now and hope they buy two really really good starting pitchers. The doldrums of 30-40 on most teams doesn't look pretty I'm sure.

What?  When was the last time a team got through a season using 25 guys?

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20 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Our farm is not stacked, at all.  After Madrigal and Robert promotions we have Vaughn.  Dunning too as long as he returns to form after surgery.  Thats pretty much all we have aside from fringe 4th OF types.

Sites have the Sox farm system ranked in the top 10 pretty much across the board.

Madigral, Robert and Vaughn are big names. But Dunning and Kopech are set to return, plus Alec Hansen. 

Yeah, stacked. A tad top heavy perhaps, but stacked nonetheless. 

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11 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

Sites have the Sox farm system ranked in the top 10 pretty much across the board.

Madigral, Robert and Vaughn are big names. But Dunning and Kopech are set to return, plus Alec Hansen. 

Yeah, stacked. A tad top heavy perhaps, but stacked nonetheless. 

Alec Hansen?  Heh, haven’t followed him the past two seasons have you?

http://m.milb.com/milb/player/641662

He’s about to fall off the Sox top 30 prospect list for a reason.

Edited by Moan4Yoan
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9 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Alec Hansen?  Heh, haven’t followed him the past two seasons have you?

http://m.milb.com/milb/player/641662

He’s about to fall off the Sox top 30 prospect list for a reason.

Okay then, Ian Hamilton, Jonathan Stiever, Steele Walker, Micker Adolfo, Luis Basabe, Blake Rutherford, Luis Gonzalez, outside of the list of bonafide studs.

Considering all the guys either already up on the team or on the IL, that's a quality list. 

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On 7/28/2019 at 4:38 PM, Dickie Kerr said:

Clearly, this organization has a long way to go to even be mediocre. Here’s a list of our 40-man trash that could be released without a blink:

Banuelos

Cordero

Covey

Detweiler

Frare 

Fulmer

Herrera

Jones

Medeiros

Nova

Osich

Ruiz 

Vieira

Castillo 

Zavala

Reed

Goins

Sanchez

Engel

Jay

Cordell

Palka

Tilson

Look at that list. Take it all in. The idea that this team is remotely close to contending is laughable.

Thank you JR. You can’t disappear soon enough.

Yikes.

That is truly depressing

Reinsdorf sport organizations make great case study fodder in graduate schools of management. Exactly, the kind of model to avoid at all cost.

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22 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

Okay then, Ian Hamilton, Jonathan Stiever, Steele Walker, Micker Adolfo, Luis Basabe, Blake Rutherford, Luis Gonzalez, outside of the list of bonafide studs.

Considering all the guys either already up on the team or on the IL, that's a quality list. 

Outside of Steele Walker, which one of those in the list make it quality?  None of the hitters except Walker have an OPS above .700. Hamilton has an ERA above 9.

 

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13 hours ago, Dan of Steel said:

Okay then, Ian Hamilton, Jonathan Stiever, Steele Walker, Micker Adolfo, Luis Basabe, Blake Rutherford, Luis Gonzalez, outside of the list of bonafide studs.

Considering all the guys either already up on the team or on the IL, that's a quality list. 

Assuming they stay healthy which has been an issue for the past three seasons.

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1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Assuming they stay healthy which has been an issue for the past three seasons.

Very true. Health has been a big problem with this rebuild so far. Not a death knell yet.

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14 hours ago, Juschill said:

Outside of Steele Walker, which one of those in the list make it quality?  None of the hitters except Walker have an OPS above .700. Hamilton has an ERA above 9.

 

I mean, Adolfo and Basabe are out for the year, so they don't have an OPS to count towards. 

Rutherford's numbers are bogged down by his atrocious start to the year, but has improved drastically over the past 2 months. Same with Gonzalez, who struggled but has come on strong as of late. 

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41 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

I mean, Adolfo and Basabe are out for the year, so they don't have an OPS to count towards. 

Rutherford's numbers are bogged down by his atrocious start to the year, but has improved drastically over the past 2 months. Same with Gonzalez, who struggled but has come on strong as of late. 

Basabe is out for the year?  That is news to me.  Don't think that is correct unless he got hurt in the last day or two.  

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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Basabe is out for the year?  That is news to me.  Don't think that is correct unless he got hurt in the last day or two.  

My bad, that was meant for Adolfo. However Basabe spent a good portion of this season rehabbing from a broken bone in his hand. 

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I think there's a better conversation in here. To steer it back, looking at the 40 as is, let's see who can stick around for OD 2020. I think there are 5 guys you can count off immediately in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

From there, who are the near locks? **This is all assuming Colome is traded and no one else is. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
1 Yoan Moncada Lock 3B   100%  
2 Eloy Jimenez Lock LF   100%  
3 Lucas Giolito Lock SP   100%  
4 Tim Anderson Lock SS   100%  
5 MichaelKopech Lock SP   100% Assuming clean return
6 Dylan Cease Lock SP   100%  
7 AaronBummer Lock LHP   100%  
8 James McCann Lock C   100%  
9 Jose Abreu Lock 1B   100% Assuming he's re-signed
10 Jace Fry Lock LHP   100% Assuming no trade
11 ReynaldoLopez Lock RHP   100%  
12 Dane Dunning Lock RHP   100%  
13 Carlos Rodon Lock LHP   100% Can be moved to IL for season
14 BlakeRutherford Lock OF   100%  
15 Micker Adolfo Lock OF   100%  
16 Luis Basabe Lock OF   100%  
17 Ryan B.urr Near Lock RHP 2 90% Can be moved to IL for season
18 Ryan Cordell Near Lock OF 1 90%  
19 Zach Collins Near Lock DH 2 90%  
20 Caleb Frare Near Lock LHP 2 90%  
21 Adam Engel Near Lock OF 1 90%  
22 Leury Garcia Near Lock UTIL 0 90% Assuming no trade
23 Yolmer Sanchez Likely INF 0 75% Judgement
24 Kelvin Herrera Likely RHP 0 75% Judgement
25 Jimmy Lambert Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble
26 Zack Burdi Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble

That's 26 near "locks." Obviously things change/happen and players can be traded but I am looking at them as locks for point of exercise. Both Rodon and Burr will miss the first half and more so they can be shifted to 60 day IL after Spring Training. Lets just put Madrigal and Robert in their place for ease of exercise.

Then I have 5 guys that will be gone for sure in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

The next tier is coin flip or better guys. This group is 6 deep. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
27 Ian Hamilton TBD RHP 2 75% Injury dependent
28 Nate Jones TBD RHP - 75% Injury dependent
29 Kodi Medeiros TBD LHP 3 75%  
30 Seby Zavala TBD C 2 50% Judgement Call
31 CarsonFulmer TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options - needs OD roster 
32 Evan Marshall TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options

The group after that is guys on the 40 that have performance/fit concerns or have yet to have a chance to prove they deserve a spot.

33 Jimmy Cordero   RHP 0 25% Out of options - Judgment call
34 Dylan Covey   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
35 Jose Ruiz   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
36 AJ Reed   1B 0 10% Out of options
37 Thyago Viera   RHP 0 10% Out of options
38 Ryan Goins   INF 0 10% Out of options
39 MannyBanuelos   LHP 0 10% Out of options
40 Charlie Tilson   OF 1 10% Out of options
41 Danny Palka   OF 1 10% Out of options

The next group is AAA guys that could conceivably get a spot and players that have a(n) (very) outside shot of rule 5 selection.

42 Bernardo Flores   LHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
43 Alec Hansen   RHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
44
YerminMercedes
  C 3 TBD  
45 Danny Mendick   INF 3 TBD  
46 Matt Foster   RHP 3 TBD Rule 5 Eligilble

The last group is just one deep. A guy who doesn't need protection but through need, performance for the remainder of this year and Spring Training could force his spot on the 25 man roster.

47 Tyler Johnson   RHP 3 TBD Performance could force 40 man spot

 

Please nerds let me know who I missed

Edited by raBBit
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9 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I think there's a better conversation in here. To steer it back, looking at the 40 as is, let's see who can stick around for OD 2020. I think there are 5 guys you can count off immediately in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

From there, who are the near locks? **This is all assuming Colome is traded and no one else is. 



Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
1 Yoan Moncada Lock 3B   100%  
2 Eloy Jimenez Lock LF   100%  
3 Lucas Giolito Lock SP   100%  
4 Tim Anderson Lock SS   100%  
5 MichaelKopech Lock SP   100% Assuming clean return
6 Dylan Cease Lock SP   100%  
7 AaronBummer Lock LHP   100%  
8 James McCann Lock C   100%  
9 Jose Abreu Lock 1B   100% Assuming he's re-signed
10 Jace Fry Lock LHP   100% Assuming no trade
11 ReynaldoLopez Lock RHP   100%  
12 Dane Dunning Lock RHP   100%  
13 Carlos Rodon Lock LHP   100% Can be moved to IL for season
14 BlakeRutherford Lock OF   100%  
15 Micker Adolfo Lock OF   100%  
16 Luis Basabe Lock OF   100%  
17 Ryan B.urr Near Lock RHP 2 90% Can be moved to IL for season
18 Ryan Cordell Near Lock OF 1 90%  
19 Zach Collins Near Lock DH 2 90%  
20 Caleb Frare Near Lock LHP 2 90%  
21 Adam Engel Near Lock OF 1 90%  
22 Leury Garcia Near Lock UTIL 0 90% Assuming no trade
23 Yolmer Sanchez Likely INF 0 75% Judgement
24 Kelvin Herrera Likely RHP 0 75% Judgement
25 Jimmy Lambert Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble
26 Zack Burdi Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble

That's 26 near "locks." Obviously things change/happen and players can be traded but I am looking at them as locks for point of exercise. Both Rodon and Burr will miss the first half and more so they can be shifted to 60 day IL after Spring Training. Lets just put Madrigal and Robert in their place for ease of exercise.

Then I have 5 guys that will be gone for sure in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

The next tier is coin flip or better guys. This group is 6 deep. 



Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
27 Ian Hamilton TBD RHP 2 75% Injury dependent
28 Nate Jones TBD RHP - 75% Injury dependent
29 Kodi Medeiros TBD LHP 3 75%  
30 Seby Zavala TBD C 2 50% Judgement Call
31 CarsonFulmer TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options - needs OD roster 
32 Evan Marshall TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options

The group after that is guys on the 40 that have performance/fit concerns or have yet to have a chance to prove they deserve a spot.

33 Jimmy Cordero   RHP 0 25% Out of options - Judgment call
34 Dylan Covey   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
35 Jose Ruiz   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
36 AJ Reed   1B 0 10% Out of options
37 Thyago Viera   RHP 0 10% Out of options
38 Ryan Goins   INF 0 10% Out of options
39 MannyBanuelos   LHP 0 10% Out of options
40 Charlie Tilson   OF 1 10% Out of options
41 Danny Palka   OF 1 10% Out of options

The next group is AAA guys that could conceivably get a spot and players that have a(n) (very) outside shot of rule 5 selection.

42 Bernard Flores   LHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
43 Alec Hansen   RHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
44
YerminMercedes
  C 3 TBD  
45 Danny Mendick   INF 3 TBD  
46 Matt Foster   RHP 3 TBD Rule 5 Eligilble

The last group is just one deep. A guy who doesn't need protection but through need, performance for the remainder of this year and Spring Training could force his spot on the 25 man roster.

47 Tyler Johnson   RHP 3 TBD Performance could force 40 man spot

 

Please nerds let me know who I missed

You kind of have to consider the status of Robert and Madrigal as they give 3 - 6 weeks to determine who the bottom to guys on the 40 are as the seats are just being kept warm. 

Are they going to carry two guys knowing they are DFAing them after a couple weeks, or do they use the opportunity for competition.

Edited by mqr

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1 minute ago, mqr said:

You kind of have to consider the status of Robert and Madrigal as they give 3 - 6 weeks to determine who the bottom to guys on the 40 are as the seats are just being kept warm. 

Are they going to carry two guys knowing they are DFAing them after a couple weeks, or do they use the opportunity for competition.

Sure, but it's just too granular to get into at this point. We don't know who's going to get hurt in ST or who comes back slow. That said, Fulmer could probably get a spot that way but with the way relievers are used now I'd imagine it's a good bet the Sox recycle some relief arms with the flexibility prior to calling up Robert/Madrigal at the end of April (assuming that's the course of action).

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13 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I think there's a better conversation in here. To steer it back, looking at the 40 as is, let's see who can stick around for OD 2020. I think there are 5 guys you can count off immediately in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

From there, who are the near locks? **This is all assuming Colome is traded and no one else is. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
1 Yoan Moncada Lock 3B   100%  
2 Eloy Jimenez Lock LF   100%  
3 Lucas Giolito Lock SP   100%  
4 Tim Anderson Lock SS   100%  
5 MichaelKopech Lock SP   100% Assuming clean return
6 Dylan Cease Lock SP   100%  
7 AaronBummer Lock LHP   100%  
8 James McCann Lock C   100%  
9 Jose Abreu Lock 1B   100% Assuming he's re-signed
10 Jace Fry Lock LHP   100% Assuming no trade
11 ReynaldoLopez Lock RHP   100%  
12 Dane Dunning Lock RHP   100%  
13 Carlos Rodon Lock LHP   100% Can be moved to IL for season
14 BlakeRutherford Lock OF   100%  
15 Micker Adolfo Lock OF   100%  
16 Luis Basabe Lock OF   100%  
17 Ryan B.urr Near Lock RHP 2 90% Can be moved to IL for season
18 Ryan Cordell Near Lock OF 1 90%  
19 Zach Collins Near Lock DH 2 90%  
20 Caleb Frare Near Lock LHP 2 90%  
21 Adam Engel Near Lock OF 1 90%  
22 Leury Garcia Near Lock UTIL 0 90% Assuming no trade
23 Yolmer Sanchez Likely INF 0 75% Judgement
24 Kelvin Herrera Likely RHP 0 75% Judgement
25 Jimmy Lambert Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble
26 Zack Burdi Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble

That's 26 near "locks." Obviously things change/happen and players can be traded but I am looking at them as locks for point of exercise. Both Rodon and Burr will miss the first half and more so they can be shifted to 60 day IL after Spring Training. Lets just put Madrigal and Robert in their place for ease of exercise.

Then I have 5 guys that will be gone for sure in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

The next tier is coin flip or better guys. This group is 6 deep. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
27 Ian Hamilton TBD RHP 2 75% Injury dependent
28 Nate Jones TBD RHP - 75% Injury dependent
29 Kodi Medeiros TBD LHP 3 75%  
30 Seby Zavala TBD C 2 50% Judgement Call
31 CarsonFulmer TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options - needs OD roster 
32 Evan Marshall TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options

The group after that is guys on the 40 that have performance/fit concerns or have yet to have a chance to prove they deserve a spot.

33 Jimmy Cordero   RHP 0 25% Out of options - Judgment call
34 Dylan Covey   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
35 Jose Ruiz   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
36 AJ Reed   1B 0 10% Out of options
37 Thyago Viera   RHP 0 10% Out of options
38 Ryan Goins   INF 0 10% Out of options
39 MannyBanuelos   LHP 0 10% Out of options
40 Charlie Tilson   OF 1 10% Out of options
41 Danny Palka   OF 1 10% Out of options

The next group is AAA guys that could conceivably get a spot and players that have a(n) (very) outside shot of rule 5 selection.

42 Bernardo Flores   LHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
43 Alec Hansen   RHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
44
YerminMercedes
  C 3 TBD  
45 Danny Mendick   INF 3 TBD  
46 Matt Foster   RHP 3 TBD Rule 5 Eligilble

The last group is just one deep. A guy who doesn't need protection but through need, performance for the remainder of this year and Spring Training could force his spot on the 25 man roster.

47 Tyler Johnson   RHP 3 TBD Performance could force 40 man spot

 

Please nerds let me know who I missed

You have Jose as a lock. I disagree. He hasn't done much this year. Don't see what makes him a lock to resign other than the fact that he begged the White Sox to retain him. 

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7 minutes ago, ron883 said:

You have Jose as a lock. I disagree. He hasn't done much this year. Don't see what makes him a lock to resign other than the fact that he begged the White Sox to retain him. 

It literally says right next to him, "Assuming he's resigned." Just means that if he was re-signed he would in fact, be a lock.

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1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

It literally says right next to him, "Assuming he's resigned." Just means that if he was re-signed he would in fact, be a lock.

You know what they say about assuming

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33 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I think there's a better conversation in here. To steer it back, looking at the 40 as is, let's see who can stick around for OD 2020. I think there are 5 guys you can count off immediately in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

From there, who are the near locks? **This is all assuming Colome is traded and no one else is. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
1 Yoan Moncada Lock 3B   100%  
2 Eloy Jimenez Lock LF   100%  
3 Lucas Giolito Lock SP   100%  
4 Tim Anderson Lock SS   100%  
5 MichaelKopech Lock SP   100% Assuming clean return
6 Dylan Cease Lock SP   100%  
7 AaronBummer Lock LHP   100%  
8 James McCann Lock C   100%  
9 Jose Abreu Lock 1B   100% Assuming he's re-signed
10 Jace Fry Lock LHP   100% Assuming no trade
11 ReynaldoLopez Lock RHP   100%  
12 Dane Dunning Lock RHP   100%  
13 Carlos Rodon Lock LHP   100% Can be moved to IL for season
14 BlakeRutherford Lock OF   100%  
15 Micker Adolfo Lock OF   100%  
16 Luis Basabe Lock OF   100%  
17 Ryan B.urr Near Lock RHP 2 90% Can be moved to IL for season
18 Ryan Cordell Near Lock OF 1 90%  
19 Zach Collins Near Lock DH 2 90%  
20 Caleb Frare Near Lock LHP 2 90%  
21 Adam Engel Near Lock OF 1 90%  
22 Leury Garcia Near Lock UTIL 0 90% Assuming no trade
23 Yolmer Sanchez Likely INF 0 75% Judgement
24 Kelvin Herrera Likely RHP 0 75% Judgement
25 Jimmy Lambert Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble
26 Zack Burdi Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble

That's 26 near "locks." Obviously things change/happen and players can be traded but I am looking at them as locks for point of exercise. Both Rodon and Burr will miss the first half and more so they can be shifted to 60 day IL after Spring Training. Lets just put Madrigal and Robert in their place for ease of exercise.

Then I have 5 guys that will be gone for sure in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

The next tier is coin flip or better guys. This group is 6 deep. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
27 Ian Hamilton TBD RHP 2 75% Injury dependent
28 Nate Jones TBD RHP - 75% Injury dependent
29 Kodi Medeiros TBD LHP 3 75%  
30 Seby Zavala TBD C 2 50% Judgement Call
31 CarsonFulmer TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options - needs OD roster 
32 Evan Marshall TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options

The group after that is guys on the 40 that have performance/fit concerns or have yet to have a chance to prove they deserve a spot.

33 Jimmy Cordero   RHP 0 25% Out of options - Judgment call
34 Dylan Covey   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
35 Jose Ruiz   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
36 AJ Reed   1B 0 10% Out of options
37 Thyago Viera   RHP 0 10% Out of options
38 Ryan Goins   INF 0 10% Out of options
39 MannyBanuelos   LHP 0 10% Out of options
40 Charlie Tilson   OF 1 10% Out of options
41 Danny Palka   OF 1 10% Out of options

The next group is AAA guys that could conceivably get a spot and players that have a(n) (very) outside shot of rule 5 selection.

42 Bernardo Flores   LHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
43 Alec Hansen   RHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
44
YerminMercedes
  C 3 TBD  
45 Danny Mendick   INF 3 TBD  
46 Matt Foster   RHP 3 TBD Rule 5 Eligilble

The last group is just one deep. A guy who doesn't need protection but through need, performance for the remainder of this year and Spring Training could force his spot on the 25 man roster.

47 Tyler Johnson   RHP 3 TBD Performance could force 40 man spot

 

Please nerds let me know who I missed

Great post! Only two guys this is missing by my count is Zach Thompson and Kyle Kubat, both of whom will be rule 5 eligible this offseason, and both of whom I believe will be September call ups at the latest.  

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56 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I think there's a better conversation in here. To steer it back, looking at the 40 as is, let's see who can stick around for OD 2020. I think there are 5 guys you can count off immediately in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

From there, who are the near locks? **This is all assuming Colome is traded and no one else is. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
1 Yoan Moncada Lock 3B   100%  
2 Eloy Jimenez Lock LF   100%  
3 Lucas Giolito Lock SP   100%  
4 Tim Anderson Lock SS   100%  
5 MichaelKopech Lock SP   100% Assuming clean return
6 Dylan Cease Lock SP   100%  
7 AaronBummer Lock LHP   100%  
8 James McCann Lock C   100%  
9 Jose Abreu Lock 1B   100% Assuming he's re-signed
10 Jace Fry Lock LHP   100% Assuming no trade
11 ReynaldoLopez Lock RHP   100%  
12 Dane Dunning Lock RHP   100%  
13 Carlos Rodon Lock LHP   100% Can be moved to IL for season
14 BlakeRutherford Lock OF   100%  
15 Micker Adolfo Lock OF   100%  
16 Luis Basabe Lock OF   100%  
17 Ryan B.urr Near Lock RHP 2 90% Can be moved to IL for season
18 Ryan Cordell Near Lock OF 1 90%  
19 Zach Collins Near Lock DH 2 90%  
20 Caleb Frare Near Lock LHP 2 90%  
21 Adam Engel Near Lock OF 1 90%  
22 Leury Garcia Near Lock UTIL 0 90% Assuming no trade
23 Yolmer Sanchez Likely INF 0 75% Judgement
24 Kelvin Herrera Likely RHP 0 75% Judgement
25 Jimmy Lambert Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble
26 Zack Burdi Likely RHP 3 75% Rule 5 Eligilble

That's 26 near "locks." Obviously things change/happen and players can be traded but I am looking at them as locks for point of exercise. Both Rodon and Burr will miss the first half and more so they can be shifted to 60 day IL after Spring Training. Lets just put Madrigal and Robert in their place for ease of exercise.

Then I have 5 guys that will be gone for sure in Detwiler, Nova, Osich, Castillo and Jay. 

The next tier is coin flip or better guys. This group is 6 deep. 

Rk Player '20 Status POS Opt? 2020 Comment
27 Ian Hamilton TBD RHP 2 75% Injury dependent
28 Nate Jones TBD RHP - 75% Injury dependent
29 Kodi Medeiros TBD LHP 3 75%  
30 Seby Zavala TBD C 2 50% Judgement Call
31 CarsonFulmer TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options - needs OD roster 
32 Evan Marshall TBD RHP 0 50% Out of options

The group after that is guys on the 40 that have performance/fit concerns or have yet to have a chance to prove they deserve a spot.

33 Jimmy Cordero   RHP 0 25% Out of options - Judgment call
34 Dylan Covey   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
35 Jose Ruiz   RHP 1 20% Judgment Call
36 AJ Reed   1B 0 10% Out of options
37 Thyago Viera   RHP 0 10% Out of options
38 Ryan Goins   INF 0 10% Out of options
39 MannyBanuelos   LHP 0 10% Out of options
40 Charlie Tilson   OF 1 10% Out of options
41 Danny Palka   OF 1 10% Out of options

The next group is AAA guys that could conceivably get a spot and players that have a(n) (very) outside shot of rule 5 selection.

42 Bernardo Flores   LHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
43 Alec Hansen   RHP 3 25% Rule 5 Eligilble
44
YerminMercedes
  C 3 TBD  
45 Danny Mendick   INF 3 TBD  
46 Matt Foster   RHP 3 TBD Rule 5 Eligilble

The last group is just one deep. A guy who doesn't need protection but through need, performance for the remainder of this year and Spring Training could force his spot on the 25 man roster.

47 Tyler Johnson   RHP 3 TBD Performance could force 40 man spot

 

Please nerds let me know who I missed

Why are Cordell and Engel near locks? This exemplifies more than anything why this organization is horseshit.

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16 minutes ago, Dickie Kerr said:

Why are Cordell and Engel near locks? This exemplifies more than anything why this organization is horseshit.

Because they have minor league options remaining and are useful depth. 

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29 minutes ago, Dickie Kerr said:

Why are Cordell and Engel near locks? This exemplifies more than anything why this organization is horseshit.

Having Cordell and Engel on your 40 man roster is perfectly fine, even for a competitive team. Just as long as they're in the bottom ten. 

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1 hour ago, Dickie Kerr said:

Why are Cordell and Engel near locks? This exemplifies more than anything why this organization is horseshit.

I can't imagine sending Burdi out there to get his brains beaten in...which would then be yet another reminder of that 2016 season and curiously selecting him in order to contribute to the supposed pennant race THAT season (see Sale, Chris, 2010).

Let him join his brother with the Pirates, who's recovering from thoracic-outlet surgery.  Seems neither of those kids can ever stay healthy.

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