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It's That Time Of The Year Again...

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18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Nothing is a piece of cake for the White Six this decade...that’s like the kiss of death.

I'm just not the hand wringing type I guess.  Oh yeah, another plus, anyone we use for DH has to be better than Alonso or Reed.  

Edited by poppysox

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Should I get on the Blaze Jordan bandwagon now or later?...

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20 hours ago, bubba phillips said:

I think those 2 statements are mutually exclusive.  If we're woeful enough to garner a top 5 pick, I don't think we would be competitive for a playoff position in 2020.  You're talking about probably going from 90 losses to 90 wins in one season.  About 15 things would have to go perfectly right for that to happen.  Knowing our history, what are the chances of that happening?

They're not mutually exclusive. The Sox were decimated by injuries this year. Had everyone been healthy all season, I think they would be hovering around .500

They've rarely had Moncada, Eloy and Anderson in the lineup simultaneously and on 8/31/2018 Rodon and Kopech were the Sox two best SP. That's hard to overcome. With all else being equal and perfect health, the Sox would probably finish somewhere in the range of 77 to 85 wins. As currently constituted, 78 wins is probably their ceiling, and they might reach it anyway. The 5-14 stretch they've been on since the ASB is the anomaly, not the 1st half. They're not actually this bad. They're probably a 74-79 win team but this stretch makes it look worse than it is. 

Anderson and Eloy are two of their 4 best offensive players and they were both out for a majority of that stretch. Abreu and Moncada couldn't do it all by themselves. It put extra pressure on the pitching staff, which lead to a cascading effect that ends up with a 19 game stretch where a team goes 5-14. 

Yes, I realize their Pythagorean W-L was always awful but that was when they'd have games where they'd lose by 10+ runs because scrubs like Covey, Santana et al were pitching in those games. 

Pythagorean W-L doesn't always tell the whole story, but it is useful over large sample sizes. It can be skewed by having a few really bad pitchers. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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I hate to be a party pooper, but I don't see the Sox even sniffing a top 5 pick. Most everything has gone wrong since the allstar break, which led to that 4-13 stretch.

Anderson is back. Eloy will get going (somewhat at least). Moncada will be back. Gio pitched better in his last start. Nova is pitching well. I'll guess we end up picking 9th. It could easily be a 2-3 spots lower or 2-3 spots higher.

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3 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I hate to be a party pooper, but I don't see the Sox even sniffing a top 5 pick. Most everything has gone wrong since the allstar break, which led to that 4-13 stretch.

Anderson is back. Eloy will get going (somewhat at least). Moncada will be back. Gio pitched better in his last start. Nova is pitching well. I'll guess we end up picking 9th. It could easily be a 2-3 spots lower or 2-3 spots higher.

Don't forget Lopez has seemed to rediscover his 2018 form and Cease is learning on the job. He just had his best start in the Majors. I think they'll end up in the 9-12 range when everyone gets healthy. Injuries are killing them. Not to mention there is a slim possibility Robert gets called up. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Don't forget Lopez has seemed to rediscover his 2018 form and Cease is learning on the job. He just had his best start in the Majors. I think they'll end up in the 9-12 range when everyone gets healthy. Injuries are killing them. Not to mention there is a slim possibility Robert gets called up. 

Yep. I think 10th is a lot more likely than 5th. We'll see.

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1 minute ago, Sarava said:

Yep. I think 10th is a lot more likely than 5th. We'll see.

It's really a bummer that Rodon and Kopech got injured. Rodon was starting to show why he was the 3rd OA pick in 2014 and Kopech looked really good before he got injured. Had they been healthy this year, with all else being equal, I think they could have finished in the low to mid 80s in wins. They might still win 74-77 games as is, which is still progress. This stretch is the anomaly, not the norm IMO from this year. The lineup has been decimated by losing its best hitters. 

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1 hour ago, Wanne said:

Should I get on the Blaze Jordan bandwagon now or later?...

He's pretty much can't miss with that name.

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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Definitely later.

Seconded. No thanks.

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The new scouting director's (boy that's fun to say) first point of business should be that no one is allowed to turn in a 1B only.  If he's a 1B only scratch him off your list.  

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7 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The new scouting director's (boy that's fun to say) first point of business should be that no one is allowed to turn in a 1B only.  If he's a 1B only scratch him off your list.  

That's real smart.  Eliminate yourself from drafting a hall of famer like Frank Thomas. Probably the best Sox draft pick ever.

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6th to 8th. They’ll beat the Royals and Tigers enough to stay away from top 5. 88 to 90 losses.

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5 hours ago, poppysox said:

So the question is are the Sox set up to improve by 18 wins.  Expect continued improvement from Lopez, Eloy, Madrigal & Gio.  The addition of Robert and Madrigal changes the offense by leaps and bounds.  Return of Kopech, Rodon, Dunning, Burr and Hamilton from assorted ailments.  Cease for the full year will be another plus.  Add a right fielder of good quality and a couple of starting pitchers of decent quality by trade or free agency.  The 18 win improvement is certainly within reach.  The quality of those pitchers & new right fielder make the task easier or harder as the case might be.  In my optimistic opinion....piece of cake.

The one thing that no one wants to think about...we need to hope and pray that there are no major injuries, lingering or otherwise, to our core next year. Another injury year like 2018 and 2019 might prove to be detrimental. These injuries, in my opinion, need to get ironed out and should be on the Sox priority list this offseason.

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28 minutes ago, flavum said:

6th to 8th. They’ll beat the Royals and Tigers enough to stay away from top 5. 88 to 90 losses.

84-89 losses IMO. IIRC they see a lot of Detroit in September. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's really a bummer that Rodon and Kopech got injured. Rodon was starting to show why he was the 3rd OA pick in 2014 and Kopech looked really good before he got injured. Had they been healthy this year, with all else being equal, I think they could have finished in the low to mid 80s in wins. They might still win 74-77 games as is, which is still progress. This stretch is the anomaly, not the norm IMO from this year. The lineup has been decimated by losing its best hitters. 

Rodon’s velocity was down noticeably...that was after the shoulder injury.

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19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Rodon’s velocity was down noticeably...that was after the shoulder injury.

IIRC he was having trouble getting loose early in games in 2018 but by the 5th inning was still pumping it 97-99 mph, but he didn't have the same bite on his slider. This year his velocity was down but the slider was awesome before his UCL snapped. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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27 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

IIRC he was having trouble getting loose early in games in 2018 but by the 5th inning was still pumping it 97-99 mph, but he didn't have the same bite on his slider. This year his velocity was down but the slider was awesome before his UCL snapped. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=16137&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

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10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That basically confirmed what I thought. Thanks. His shoulder surgery was as minor as possible and he had it because he had severe bursitis. There was only normal wear for a pitcher in there, no structural  damage or anything was in the press release. It wouldn't have affected his max velocity or anything. It does make sense that he had trouble getting it going early in games in 2018. This year his UCL was damaged so that would explain struggling to top 93-94 for him. Whoever gets him after the Sox is going to get the best version.

That graph shows Rodon's fastball velocity pretty consistent from 2017-18. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

That basically confirmed what I thought. Thanks. His shoulder surgery was as minor as possible and he had it because he had severe bursitis. There was only normal wear for a pitcher in there, no structural  damage or anything was in the press release. It wouldn't have affected his max velocity or anything. It does make sense that he had trouble getting it going early in games in 2018. This year his UCL was damaged so that would explain struggling to top 93-94 for him. Whoever gets him after the Sox is going to get the best version.

That graph shows Rodon's fastball velocity pretty consistent from 2017-18. 

Yes it can. The subacromial bursa is the buffer between the supraspinatus tendon, one of the primary stabilizer of the glenohumeral joint/the primary rotator cuff muscle and the bone on top, the acromion. If those start to rub together it's going to limit the effectiveness and could easily cause a change in performance.

It's a minor surgery as in he will return to pitching but how it changes the performance has yet to be seen. If you want to follow the kinematic chain, the shoulder issue could easily have caused the UCL injury. The bursa area (subacromial) is stressed with a higher arm angle. If it hurts pitchers tend to drop the arm angle which guess what....adds stress to the elbow. I still thinks the shoulder and elbow issues are tied to his poor follow through and deceleration (or lack thereof). However, it's certainly possible it was caused by the scenario I stated above.

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8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yes it can. The subacromial bursa is the buffer between the supraspinatus tendon, one of the primary stabilizer of the glenohumeral joint/the primary rotator cuff muscle and the bone on top, the acromion. If those start to rub together it's going to limit the effectiveness and could easily cause a change in performance.

It's a minor surgery as in he will return to pitching but how it changes the performance has yet to be seen. If you want to follow the kinematic chain, the shoulder issue could easily have caused the UCL injury. The bursa area (subacromial) is stressed with a higher arm angle. If it hurts pitchers tend to drop the arm angle which guess what....adds stress to the elbow. I still thinks the shoulder and elbow issues are tied to his poor follow through and deceleration (or lack thereof). However, it's certainly possible it was caused by the scenario I stated above.

Thanks, I'm no doctor but I'm no stranger to bursitis either. I've had problems on and off throughout my life. I know what the bursa sacs are there for but I assumed they went in there, cut them open and drained the infection. If that isn't how it's done let me know. I'm always willing to learn new info and thanks. 

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First 108 W-L:

  1. Det 32-76
  2.  Bal 36-72
  3.  KC 40-68
  4.  Tor 41-67
  5.  Mia 42-66
  6.  Sea 45-63
  7.  Sox 47-61
  8.  Pit 47-61
  9.  SD 50-58
  10.  Col 50-58
  11.  Cin 51-57
  12.  NYM 53-55
Edited by flavum
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4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Thanks, I'm no doctor but I'm no stranger to bursitis either. I've had problems on and off throughout my life. I know what the bursa sacs are there for but I assumed they went in there, cut them open and drained the infection. If that isn't how it's done let me know. I'm always willing to learn new info and thanks. 

They can be treated many ways depending on the issue. They can be treated with mods to decrased the inflammation. They can have injections as well. He surgeries are usually done to resect a part of the bursa that has calcified from constant inflammation. It's rare that there is an infection in the bursa itself because it's an enclosed sac essentially and nothing gets in there. If they do take fluid out of one it's from swelling due to a trauma because its encapsulated and can't go anywhere.

 

Edited by ptatc

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Detroit is rebuilding correctly, if you are going to tank, tank. Don’t pretend like your not tanking and pick 3. All out tank and draft 1. History has proven the number 1 pick is almost always and binaries at least all star.

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21 minutes ago, AJUribe said:

Detroit is rebuilding correctly, if you are going to tank, tank. Don’t pretend like your not tanking and pick 3. All out tank and draft 1. History has proven the number 1 pick is almost always and binaries at least all star.

Yep, Mize and another top 2 next year.

We had Rodon at 3 (bad luck), Madrigal at 4...I guess we can pretend that Robert, Moncada, Giolito, Jimenez, Kopech and Cease are all high first round draft picks.

In the end, it shouldn't matter where the talent originated, and Detroit still has a few years before they can get out of the Cabrera contract.

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