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It's That Time Of The Year Again...

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On 8/2/2019 at 2:34 PM, Good Guys said:

The Sox look to be trending towards another top 5 draft pick.  Detroit and Baltimore appear to have a hold on the bottom two spots in the standings but after that anything is possible.  I still feel that the Pale Hose could make a push for the playoffs in 2020 but has the window for contention officially moved to 2021?

If the Sox were serious about contending next year they would bring up Robert and Madrigal now ,then spend freely in the off season FA market. I can't see doing one without the other. Why go hog wild in free agency if you aren't going to acclimate your best prospects to the majors ? Why have them miss the games early in the season next year ? If they miss 20 games each ( i have no idea how many they actually will miss) then you double it because its 2 players to a total of 40 games . Why have potentially very good players intentionally miss that many games if you are serious about contending ?

We all know service time is important but you either make a choice to contend next year or not. Commit to it fully not half assed.. After all the main goal is to win a World Series not to have those guys for an extra year to maximize the window of contention when players like Giolito Lopez and Moncada will likely all be gone from the team by then.

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43 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If the Sox were serious about contending next year they would bring up Robert and Madrigal now ,then spend freely in the off season FA market. I can't see doing one without the other. Why go hog wild in free agency if you aren't going to acclimate your best prospects to the majors ? Why have them miss the games early in the season next year ? If they miss 20 games each ( i have no idea how many they actually will miss) then you double it because its 2 players to a total of 40 games . Why have potentially very good players intentionally miss that many games if you are serious about contending ?

We all know service time is important but you either make a choice to contend next year or not. Commit to it fully not half assed.. After all the main goal is to win a World Series not to have those guys for an extra year to maximize the window of contention when players like Giolito Lopez and Moncada will likely all be gone from the team by then.

Dude we've been on the same page for 2 months now. Not calling up Robert and Madrigal at the start of the next homestand is really stupid. Playing service time games with them is robbing Peter to pay Paul. They're past that point in the rebuild now. If things were still going poorly and Moncada/Giolito/Anderson had not improved since last year, I'd get it. Those three took a huge step forward and they, along with Eloy are the current "core 4" and those guys need to be maximized while they're here. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Dude we've been on the same page for 2 months now. Not calling up Robert and Madrigal at the start of the next homestand is really stupid. Playing service time games with them is robbing Peter to pay Paul. 

I don't like repeating myself but in this instance I will keep doing it. I know many smart people here think playing the service time game is important and usually I do too. But I'll keep drilling my point into peoples heads  Make up your damn mind White Sox ! Do you want to win in the next 5 years starting next year which would mean signing multiple FA's or do you want to have Robert and Madrigal for 1 extra year when Moncada Gio and Rey are all likely gone already ? To me it's a really simple answer.

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9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't like repeating myself but in this instance I will keep doing it. I know many smart people here think playing the service time game is important and usually I do too. But I'll keep drilling my point into peoples heads  Make up your damn mind White Sox ! Do you want to win in the next 5 years starting next year which would mean signing multiple FA's or do you want to have Robert and Madrigal for 1 extra year when Moncada Gio and Rey are all likely gone already ? To me it's a really simple answer.

I've been repeating myself about it too. You only play service games with the 1st wave of talent. The 2nd and 3rd waves you get up as soon as they're ready. Eloy was a completely different situation because Moncada et al. hadn't established themselves yet. Kopech will be up before 2026 as well. 

The bolded is really important for other ppl to understand. Robert/Madrigal are the 2nd wave so they should be up here as soon as the FO deems them MLB ready. 

I feel like the FO has mindfucked themselves because it took Moncada and Giolito 1.5 seasons to get their shit together. It completely screwed up their entire plan. If anything, that should help them bring Robert/Madrigal up sooner, but somehow it's having the opposite effect. I don't think that Moncada or Giolito could have learned what they need to in order to become successful MLBers in Charlotte. Somehow, I think the FO does, and that is why they're being conservative. (to put it nicely) 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I've been repeating myself about it too. You only play service games with the 1st wave of talent. The 2nd and 3rd waves you get up as soon as they're ready. Eloy was a completely different situation because Moncada et al. hadn't established themselves yet. Kopech will be up before 2026 as well. 

The bolded is really important for other ppl to understand. Robert/Madrigal are the 2nd wave so they should be up here as soon as the FO deems them MLB ready. 

We have all seen what losing Jimenez , Monacada and Anderson has done to the lineup and run production. Now let's say Robert and Madrigal both buck the recent trend of Sox rookies not doing so great and put up a combine 7/8 combined WAR. Then you also might have Jimenez improving like Moncada did this year plus Moncada could get even better. You also have Cease and possibly Kopech for the whole year and various guys coming back from injury. To keep Robert and Madrigal down for a combined 40/50 games would take a lot of production from the lineup.

Now it's certainly possible Robert and Madrigal will need time to adjust so why do it after they come up and not this year? If the Sox FO thinks they can contend next year then the only answer is to bring them up this year. How confident can I be that the Sox will sign FA's to contend next year when so far their actions show me they are more interested in service time than contending ?

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8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

We have all seen what losing Jimenez , Monacada and Anderson has done to the lineup and run production. Now let's say Robert and Madrigal both buck the recent trend of Sox rookies not doing so great and put up a combine 7/8 combined WAR. Then you also might have Jimenez improving like Moncada did this year plus Moncada could get even better. You also have Cease and possibly Kopech for the whole year and various guys coming back from injury. To keep Robert and Madrigal down for a combined 40/50 games would take a lot of production from the lineup.

Now it's certainly possible Robert and Madrigal will need time to adjust so why do it after they come up and not this year? If the Sox FO thinks they can contend next year then the only answer is to bring them up this year. How confident can I be that the Sox will sign FA's to contend next year when so far their actions show me they are more interested in service time than contending ?

I really don't want to be the Debbie Downer/Negative Nancy, but everyone brings up those type of points and that is exactly what Josh Nelson was discussing on Twitter this morning. It's impossible to argue against them going the Pirates way when all evidence points in that direction. We're all going to pull our hair out of our heads if the only thing they get out of this is a few ALDS or wild card game appearances. 

The Pirates sucked for 22 years, built up a good system, and all they got out of it was a few NLDS/WCG appearances. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I really don't want to be the Debbie Downer/Negative Nancy, but everyone brings up those type of points and that is exactly what Josh Nelson was discussing on Twitter this morning. 

I only read twitter when someone puts it in here so if you could be so kind I'd appreciate it.

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1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I only read twitter when someone puts it in here so if you could be so kind I'd appreciate it.

I posted it in the Hahn/offseason thread. It's in there. 

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This is one way to get a Top 5 pick...

 

White Sox 2018 W/L: 62-100 Position Players: 8.3 WAR Pitchers: 8.9 WAR

White Sox 2019 W/L: 69-93 (proj.) Position Players: 4.3 WAR Pitchers: 7.3 WAR

And Moncada represents +4.0

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Sox finish the week with the 8th slot.

4 with the Tigers, 3 with the A’s, who will be spending an entire week in Chicago starting late tonight. 

5-2 this coming week wouldn’t surprise me.

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Mariners plays the Padres, Rays and Tigers the next stretch of games. I see two very winnable series there. 

Pirates on the other hand have a shitty stretch of good teams coming up. 

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I came in here to say that right now they'd be picking 8th but I'm about 36 minutes too late

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On 8/4/2019 at 3:09 PM, caulfield12 said:

This is one way to get a Top 5 pick...

 

White Sox 2018 W/L: 62-100 Position Players: 8.3 WAR Pitchers: 8.9 WAR

White Sox 2019 W/L: 69-93 (proj.) Position Players: 4.3 WAR Pitchers: 7.3 WAR

And Moncada represents +4.0

Are these your projections or someone else's?  Current WAR per baseball-reference.com has Moncado at 3, Mccaan at 2.7, Garcia at 2.2, Anderson at 1.8, and Abreu at 0.6.  I have a hard time believing last year's position players will finish higher than this year's in terms of WAR.  More less finish with almost double.

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On 8/3/2019 at 10:37 AM, poppysox said:

So the question is are the Sox set up to improve by 18 wins.  Expect continued improvement from Lopez, Eloy, Madrigal & Gio.  The addition of Robert and Madrigal changes the offense by leaps and bounds.  Return of Kopech, Rodon, Dunning, Burr and Hamilton from assorted ailments.  Cease for the full year will be another plus.  Add a right fielder of good quality and a couple of starting pitchers of decent quality by trade or free agency.  The 18 win improvement is certainly within reach.  The quality of those pitchers & new right fielder make the task easier or harder as the case might be.  In my optimistic opinion....piece of cake.

Let's not forget the likely return to form of none other than Alec Hansen. But seriously, imagine how different things might look if somehow his switch gets re-flipped.

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Top 5 pick would mean way too much serial losing at this point.  If this FO can't make-do with #10 or so, then I don't know what to say (actually I do, but I've said it before).

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7 hours ago, Good Guys said:

Are these your projections or someone else's?  Current WAR per baseball-reference.com has Moncado at 3, Mccaan at 2.7, Garcia at 2.2, Anderson at 1.8, and Abreu at 0.6.  I have a hard time believing last year's position players will finish higher than this year's in terms of WAR.  More less finish with almost double.

Fangraphs is more credible...fWAR vs. bWAR.

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6 hours ago, Flash said:

Let's not forget the likely return to form of none other than Alec Hansen. But seriously, imagine how different things might look if somehow his switch gets re-flipped.

Why exactly would that be described as likely, especially in terms of being a starting pitcher?

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12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Why exactly would that be described as likely, especially in terms of being a starting pitcher?

He did follow up with “but seriously,” indicating to me that he was joking with the Hansen comment. 

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On 8/4/2019 at 12:37 AM, AJUribe said:

Detroit is rebuilding correctly, if you are going to tank, tank. Don’t pretend like your not tanking and pick 3. All out tank and draft 1. History has proven the number 1 pick is almost always and binaries at least all star.

The fact that we are doing some winning is a good sign that we do have some talent already here.  We've all been patient up til now...let's see what Hahn accomplishes this off season before we run for the pitchforks.

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I would really hope the goal for this organization moving forward is not a 4-6 year window but sustained periods of winning, of a decade or more. I think the front office would prefer not to go through this process at the major league level again.

The time is coming for the Chicago White Sox to establish themselves as a major threat in the league and be a major player for multiple championships. They will get the following when they start winning. 

Edited by ScooterMcGee

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20 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

I would really hope the goal for this organization moving forward is not a 4-6 year window but sustained periods of winning, of a decade or more. I think the front office would prefer not to go through this process at the major league level again.

The time is coming for the Chicago White Sox to establish themselves as a major threat in the league and be a major player for multiple championships. They will get the following when they start winning. 

Not even the Cubs are going to be able to do that.

There's always going to be a natural cycle of rising and falling for even the best organizations unless they have absolute perfect drafting/scouting when their picks are lower.

If you look at the Red Sox, even with their 4 World Series wins in 15 years, they have a number of down years mixed in as well.

Only the Braves have that decade plus stretch (14 years)...everyone else has been limited to 4-6 years, pretty much.   The Dodgers also have gotten to 7, as of this postseason.

 

 

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Top 7-8 pick is more likely, we have a lot of "ground" to make up to get a top 5 pick.  It's supposed to be a deep draft though, so we should be able to add a nice piece there.  Where we've run into trouble lately is where we've picked in the early teens and just miss on some elite talent (assuming we would have picked them anyway and not still gone with Collins, Burger, etc.).  Of course, last time we picked 8th, we wasted it on Fulmer.    

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3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Not even the Cubs are going to be able to do that.

There's always going to be a natural cycle of rising and falling for even the best organizations unless they have absolute perfect drafting/scouting when their picks are lower.

If you look at the Red Sox, even with their 4 World Series wins in 15 years, they have a number of down years mixed in as well.

Only the Braves have that decade plus stretch (14 years)...everyone else has been limited to 4-6 years, pretty much.   The Dodgers also have gotten to 7, as of this postseason.

 

 

I bet Houston's gonna break some records too 

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Mike Trout was drafted 25th overall.  It would seem knowing who to pick is a matter of evaluating the best talent available when it's your turn.  Plenty of top 5 draftees never make it.  Some franchises are really good at this and many others not so much.  Lot's of small/medium market teams stand out such as Atlanta, St. Louis, Minnesota and Milwaukee.  When these teams lose a player it always seems someone Is ready to step up.

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