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Lineup Optimization


Boopa1219
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Because I can’t stand Renteria and his awful lineups, I put the Sox main regulars through a lineup optimizer online to see what their best line ups are using SLG % and wOBA  

The best lineup at 4.678 runs per game is Moncada, Anderson, Jay, Abreu, McCann, Eloy, Garcia, Castillo and Sanchez.  

Moncada and Anderson are pretty interchangeable as the computer really likes those two guys leading off. The computer doesn’t put speed in account but Id like to Anderson batting leadoff with Moncada behind him.

This optimizer also gives you the 30 best lineups and the 30 worst lineups. In 16 of those 30 worst lineups, Anderson is batting seventh. 

Can someone explain to me why Anderson is batting seventh? If I can get these lineups on a free website, certainly the Sox have the same data. 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

Moncada and Anderson are pretty interchangeable as the computer really likes those two guys leading off. The computer doesn’t put speed in account but Id like to Anderson batting leadoff with Moncada behind him.

Neither does Renteria. 

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I did the same exercise but with Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal taking the places of Jon Jay and Yolmer Sanchez. I used their minor league stats and averaged them across leagues but I didn’t use Madrigal’s numbers from AAA since it’s such a small sample size.

The difference is huge. With them in the lineup, the best lineup scores 5.73 runs per game. That’s a little over a full run per game. The best lineup is: Robert, Moncada, McCann, Abreu, Anderson, Eloy, Garcia, Castillo and Madrigal.

 

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7 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

I did the same exercise but with Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal taking the places of Jon Jay and Yolmer Sanchez. I used their minor league stats and averaged them across leagues but I didn’t use Madrigal’s numbers from AAA since it’s such a small sample size.

The difference is huge. With them in the lineup, the best lineup scores 5.73 runs per game. That’s a little over a full run per game. The best lineup is: Robert, Moncada, McCann, Abreu, Anderson, Eloy, Garcia, Castillo and Madrigal.

 

Robert's minor league numbers are otherworldly. Penciling him in for that is a bit ambitious. I like what you're doing though.

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37 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

I did the same exercise but with Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal taking the places of Jon Jay and Yolmer Sanchez. I used their minor league stats and averaged them across leagues but I didn’t use Madrigal’s numbers from AAA since it’s such a small sample size.

The difference is huge. With them in the lineup, the best lineup scores 5.73 runs per game. That’s a little over a full run per game. The best lineup is: Robert, Moncada, McCann, Abreu, Anderson, Eloy, Garcia, Castillo and Madrigal.

 

Interesting.  I thought Madrigal would be best in the 2 hole?

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47 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

I did the same exercise but with Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal taking the places of Jon Jay and Yolmer Sanchez. I used their minor league stats and averaged them across leagues but I didn’t use Madrigal’s numbers from AAA since it’s such a small sample size.

The difference is huge. With them in the lineup, the best lineup scores 5.73 runs per game. That’s a little over a full run per game. The best lineup is: Robert, Moncada, McCann, Abreu, Anderson, Eloy, Garcia, Castillo and Madrigal.

 

I really don’t get the appeal of batting Robert leadoff. Sure, he’s fast, but he’s also powerful. What’s more beneficial?

A) Him leading off, stealing bags to get into scoring position, so that he can score on a single by our guys who should be hitting homeruns anyway, and at the same time hitting a crap ton of homeruns himself but often with few if any runners on base...

or

B) Him hitting third or fourth, constantly clobbering two or three run bombs because he’s hitting behind our OBP kings, and then, when he does merely single, he can steal and be in scoring position for our relatively weaker lower of the order hitters who are more likely to hit singles?

B makes so much more sense to me. To the extent that I will furiously protest A, and you guys know how annoying that can be.

Edited by The Sir
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16 minutes ago, The Sir said:

I really don’t get the appeal of batting Robert leadoff. Sure, he’s fast, but he’s also powerful. What’s more beneficial?

A) Him leading off, stealing bags to get into scoring position, so that he can score on a single by our guys who should be hitting homeruns anyway, and at the same time hitting a crap ton of homeruns himself but often with few if any runners on base...

or

B) Him hitting third or fourth, constantly clobbering two or three run bombs because he’s hitting behind our OBP kings, and then, when he does merely single, he can steal and be in scoring position for our relatively weaker lower of the order hitters who are more likely to hit singles?

B makes so much more sense to me. To the extent that I will furiously protest A, and you guys know how annoying that can be.

I'll take B, Sir

Madrigal 1 or 2?

Edited by wegner
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1 hour ago, The Sir said:

I really don’t get the appeal of batting Robert leadoff. Sure, he’s fast, but he’s also powerful. What’s more beneficial?

A) Him leading off, stealing bags to get into scoring position, so that he can score on a single by our guys who should be hitting homeruns anyway, and at the same time hitting a crap ton of homeruns himself but often with few if any runners on base...

or

B) Him hitting third or fourth, constantly clobbering two or three run bombs because he’s hitting behind our OBP kings, and then, when he does merely single, he can steal and be in scoring position for our relatively weaker lower of the order hitters who are more likely to hit singles?

B makes so much more sense to me. To the extent that I will furiously protest A, and you guys know how annoying that can be.

You bat Robert first because he’s the best hitter on the team* and you bat your best hitter first because you’re guaranteeing that he gets the most plate appearances over the course of a game but a 162 game season.

*****I know his numbers are insane and other worldly but it’s the numbers that we have.*****

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2 hours ago, wegner said:

Interesting.  I thought Madrigal would be best in the 2 hole?

The 30 best lineups all had Madrigal batting ninth. And the 30 best lineups all had Robert leading off. 

Edited by Joshua Strong
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52 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

You bat Robert first because he’s the best hitter on the team* and you bat your best hitter first because you’re guaranteeing that he gets the most plate appearances over the course of a game but a 162 game season.

*****I know his numbers are insane and other worldly but it’s the numbers that we have.*****

Then why did Frank Thomas always bat 3rd?

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2 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I'd bat Robert first next year, he's similar to Acuna and that has worked out pretty good for ATL.  If you don't have Madrigal in the 1 or 2 spot he's a 9 hole hitter.

John Jay bats cleanup though.  Madrigal is a better Jay.  

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8 hours ago, wegner said:

Interesting.  I thought Madrigal would be best in the 2 hole?

After a bit of time I believe that will be his spot.  His attributes are very Nellie Fox like.  I actually like Anderson leading off followed by Madrigal, Robert 3rd with Moncada 4th,  Eloy 5th and Jose 6th.  The speed of the first four would drive teams crazy.  Fun to play with various lineups.  I know this is considered old fashioned lineup construction but I like speed at the top and my best hitters in the RBI places.  We live in a HR era but I love speed coupled with power like this team is going to have.

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