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Abreu “as valuable as anything” to Sox: Merkin

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Just now, Dick Allen said:

There will always be more to it than that, or the team with the highest cumulative WAR would always win. One year I think they came in last. Abreu's will sign short term deals. It would be interesting to see how he would fare in a good line up. Nelson Cruz had similar numbers at his age. I know people write off RBIa now, but even while playing for one of the worst teams in baseball, he is in the top 4 or 5 for RBIs since he came in, and one of only 4 or 5 to have at least 25 Homers and 30 doubles every seaon. The hate for him is puzzling to me. In game threads if he does well it's written off if he does poorly he's done. Thome actually got the same treatment . Not too many were upset Mark Kotsay was taking his roster spot . 

WAR has a strong correlation to actual wins, I honestly find that hard to believe.

 

The  “hate“ for Jim Thome certainly did not come from more analytics oriented people. Most arguments against him boiled down to asinine arguments like base clogging. Which is probably the dumbest point I have ever seen. 

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3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

There will always be more to it than that, or the team with the highest cumulative WAR would always win. One year I think they came in last. Abreu's will sign short term deals. It would be interesting to see how he would fare in a good line up. Nelson Cruz had similar numbers at his age. I know people write off RBIa now, but even while playing for one of the worst teams in baseball, he is in the top 4 or 5 for RBIs since he came in, and one of only 4 or 5 to have at least 25 Homers and 30 doubles every seaon. The hate for him is puzzling to me. In game threads if he does well it's written off if he does poorly he's done. Thome actually got the same treatment . Not too many were upset Mark Kotsay was taking his roster spot . 

Cruz is also a notorious PED user. He's been whacked twice. 

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3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

There will always be more to it than that, or the team with the highest cumulative WAR would always win. One year I think they came in last. Abreu's will sign short term deals. It would be interesting to see how he would fare in a good line up. Nelson Cruz had similar numbers at his age. I know people write off RBIa now, but even while playing for one of the worst teams in baseball, he is in the top 4 or 5 for RBIs since he came in, and one of only 4 or 5 to have at least 25 Homers and 30 doubles every seaon. The hate for him is puzzling to me. In game threads if he does well it's written off if he does poorly he's done. Thome actually got the same treatment . Not too many were upset Mark Kotsay was taking his roster spot . 

Nobody not named Ron hates Abreu. 

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2 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

WAR has a strong correlation to actual wins, I honestly find that hard to believe.

 

The  “hate“ for Jim Thome certainly did not come from more analytics oriented people. Most arguments against him boiled down to asinine arguments like base clogging. Which is probably the dumbest point I have ever seen. 

I think the year the Red Sox came in last place they had the highest cumulative WAR. WAR isn't perfect. Navy Vazquez if you go by WAR per inning was more valuable than Mqrk Buebrle.

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Just now, mqr said:

Nobody not named Ron hates Abreu. 

Yeah, I just think he hasn‘t been all that great for 2 years now. The numbers back that up. Signing him to a 1yr deal would be okay with me as the market isn‘t great. Still a position the Sox should look to upgrade, it‘s just not #1 on the priority list.

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4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think the year the Red Sox came in last place they had the highest cumulative WAR. WAR isn't perfect. Navy Vazquez if you go by WAR per inning was more valuable than Mqrk Buebrle.

I can‘t find anything about that. In 2015 the Red Sox finished last in their division with 78 wins, which was the 12th worst record in the league, but they ranked 14th in cumulative WAR. This has been the biggest outlier regarding the Red Sox I was able to find, but it‘s not that far off base.

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5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think the year the Red Sox came in last place they had the highest cumulative WAR. WAR isn't perfect. Navy Vazquez if you go by WAR per inning was more valuable than Mqrk Buebrle.

They weren't even close, they were a bog standard team (7th in the AL in WAA) that's pythag was 81-81 that went 78-84 in a good division.

But continue your asinine rant based on your feels, please.  Nobody has ever said WAR is perfect.  It's the best we have and it correlates with wins on a team level quite well.

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1 minute ago, GermanSoxFan said:

I can‘t find anything about that. In 2015 the Red Sox finished last in their division with 78 wins, which was the 12th worst record in the league, but they ranked 14th in cumulative WAR. This has been the biggest outlier regarding the Red Sox I was able to find, but it‘s not that far off base.

lol the on point rebuttals are coming two a time now.  We ain't no WSI.

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3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Most Sox fans thought Paul Konerko was done in 2008 at the same age as Jose.

Would have been opposed to a multi year deal then too. 

 

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4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Most Sox fans thought Paul Konerko was done in 2008 at the same age as Jose.

Just because you hit on 18 once and made 21 doesn't mean you should ever do it again.  Unless you like losing money I guess.

Edited by chitownsportsfan

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2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Most Sox fans thought Paul Konerko was done in 2008 at the same age as Jose.

Konerko actually slightly improved his K and BB-rate in 2008, his “decline“ was entirely BABIP driven. Abreu‘s peripheral stats are trending in the wrong direction.

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6 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Konerko actually slightly improved his K and BB-rate in 2008, his “decline“ was entirely BABIP driven. Abreu‘s peripheral stats are trending in the wrong direction.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Abreu been abnormally unlucky based on batted ball data? I don't think Abreu's BB rate is that far off his career number. Though it seems he's swinging at more bullshit, I thought someone posted that his OZone swing % is actually lower than his career number. 

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11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Abreu been abnormally unlucky based on batted ball data? I don't think Abreu's BB rate is that far off his career number. Though it seems he's swinging at more bullshit, I thought someone posted that his OZone swing % is actually lower than his career number. 

His hard hit rate is up slightly, but his BABIP is at .304.

 his O-Zone swing % is the same as last year‘s and right in line with his career avg. 37.1% this year vs. 37,5% for his career.

Edited by GermanSoxFan

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Abreu is 4th in the sport in hard hit balls and is 15th in average exit velocity (minimum 200 BBE). I'm not sure where the people saying his batted ball stats suck are getting that from. If it's purely about pull% or something then maybe, but if he were on any other team, someone with the two stats I mentioned would be sought after by the board as a short-term 1B/DH. 

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How can you read this and not demand Jose's return for a couple more years at 10-12 mill a year? He has the right attitude; he loves this ballclub. Folks, love of analytics and belief in analytics to the nth degree, shouldn't ever force the elimination of one thing in sports -- falling in love as a fan with great-attitude guys who bleed team colors and lead by word and example. It does matter, folks. You need a few guys who have been thru the Cell wars so to speak, the dark days before the dawn!

In Abreu's case, he bleeds White Sox silver and black!! As a White Sox fan, in my envisioning our next WS celebration on the field, I see Jerry Reinsdorf hugging Jose Abreu as he hoists the trophy from the commisioner. I see Jose clowning around with Eloy the Magnificent. I see McCann as our modern day Carlton Fisk, discussing our great pitching staff and his AJ-like clutch plays with that long-time WGN reporter, Dan Roan. I see Moncada and Tim Anderson leaping into a high five after the final out of Game Four.

And I see Colome, our 8th inning man, dumping champagne on our closer (whomever that may be) in the locker room. Also Robert and Rutherford clowning with team leader Abreu.

In other words please read this and tell me how you can be against 2-3 more years of Jose. After this contract if he wants to play/stay he can sign one year deals at 2-3 mill a year.

https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/news/jose-abreu-expects-white-sox-to-make-playoffs-in-2020

Edited by greg775

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The old has-been rbi guy made the mlb team of the month! Da doo ron ron ron  da doo ron ron.

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On 8/20/2019 at 4:56 PM, Dick Allen said:

The hate for him is puzzling to me. In game threads if he does well it's written off if he does poorly he's done. Thome actually got the same treatment . Not too many were upset Mark Kotsay was taking his roster spot . 

I've been told I'm overreacting when I say people hate Jose on this board. They say nobody hates Jose. I'm glad you sense the same hate I do. Several posters have said he's basically worthless. Man, the guy is an all star, player of the month team for August, the guy is an all star, and an all star and people despise him. It's really sad more than anything else. Glad you are standing up for him and see what I do, Mr. Allen.

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6 hours ago, pcq said:

The old has-been rbi guy made the mlb team of the month! Da doo ron ron ron  da doo ron ron.

"Old has-been" ... well isn't that special.

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The claim that he is selling out for power is also curious, as he still has one of the lowest k rates on the team. The only players on the 2019 White Sox lower are Alonso and TA, each .3 % below, which is 3 more per 1;000. And Jon Jay. 

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6 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The claim that he is selling out for power is also curious, as he still has one of the lowest k rates on the team. The only players on the 2019 White Sox lower are Alonso and TA, each .3 % below, which is 3 more per 1;000. And Jon Jay. 

Dick you are on fire with recent posts. I think if there was a vote you or Fathom might be overall "smartest" poster in terms of considering both analytics and common sense in coming up with your positions.

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