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Machado do-over

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6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Still have the 10th fewest days spent on the IL out of major league baseball this year. If your team needs to be healthier than this to compete then you will never compete. In our division - Cleveland gets to complain about how banged up they were this year, and every time someone else says they need to be healthier to compete Cleveland gets to laugh at them.

Depth is a huge issue with the Sox, that's on Hahn and Hostetler. The Sox had their most important players miss 6+ weeks of the season, nor did they have anyone worth a damn to fill their shoes. 

Giolito missed 2 weeks, Moncada missed 6 weeks, Anderson missed 6 weeks, Jimenez missed 8 weeks, Kopech missed the whole season and Rodon missed 5 months. 

Not many teams could afford losing Kluber, Clevinger, Lindor and Ramirez for as long as the Indians did. They had great organizational depth to hang around as long as they did. Ramirez had a really awful first half too. Those things would have sunk most teams. If you think Cleveland sticking around with those injuries (and the Yankees as well) is normal, I have a plot of land in SW Louisiana to sell you. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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8 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

So you're inadvertently arguing that he's right? The team he's talking about went 12-4 despite being projected to finish in last place. 

Yeah, but similar to the Bears last year, the Sox look closer than they actually are because of the schedule they play. The Sox beat up on the Royals, Tigers and a punchless Indians offense in the early part of the season. Their record from June 1 forward is more indicative of their talent level. They've been on a 66 win pace since June 1. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, but similar to the Bears last year, the Sox look closer than they actually are because of the schedule they play. The Sox beat up on the Royals, Tigers and a punchless Indians offense in the early part of the season. Their record from June 1 forward is more indicative of their talent level. 

I don't see how any of that is true- didn't the Sox take the season series against the Astros, Yankees, and other playoff teams? 

And didn't those Bears beat the Rams, Seahawks, and Vikings (twice)? 

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3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't see how any of that is true- didn't the Sox take the season series against the Astros, Yankees, and other playoff teams? 

And didn't those Bears beat the Rams, Seahawks, and Vikings (twice)? 

I usually wouldn't quote Hawk for baseball knowledge, but this one is true: "Don't tell me who you play, tell me when you play them" The Sox caught the Yankees at a vulnerable time, and only had to face Cole or Verlander once vs. the Astros. The Sox were done with the Yankees by Memorial Day. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Still have the 10th fewest days spent on the IL out of major league baseball this year. If your team needs to be healthier than this to compete then you will never compete. In our division - Cleveland gets to complain about how banged up they were this year, and every time someone else says they need to be healthier to compete Cleveland gets to laugh at them.

what part of "staying healthy" didn't you understand?  Did I say "get healthier"?

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If the Sox get Robert, Madrigal and competence in their corner OF/DH spots, they might be able to win 85 games next year, but that is optimistic due to Hahn basically saying that Kopech is starting at AAA to get the year of service they lost back, if you can read between the lines. So don't count on Kopech being in the rotation until after the 2020 MLB Draft. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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37 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Wanne, I hate to say this, but until you have a QB that's proven you're worth a damn your team is maxing at 9 wins no matter how good the defense is. 2008 Bears are the best case scenario for a team without a decent QB. They finished 9-7. 

Your arbitrary cut offs, absolutes and exaggerations are always interesting.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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46 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Your arbitrary cut offs, absolutes and exaggerations are always interesting.

I have autism. It's how my brain works. My thought processes are very polarized. Instead of attacking me, help me understand gray areas better. Thanks. Just a PSA. They're not absolutes for the most part, they're probabilities. There are always outliers. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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This is crazy.  Moncada has 4.6 fWAR.  TA has 3.1.  The team as a whole has 8.1 from the position players, including some awful negative fWAR performances.

I tell you what in years that your SS and 3B put up a combined 8+ WAR you'd sure as fuck hope you'd find 10 or so WAR elsewhere, not .8.   Yikes.  This is simultaneously horrifying and hopeful for the rebuild.

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2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

If the Sox get Robert, Madrigal and competence in their corner OF/DH spots, they might be able to win 85 games next year, but that is optimistic due to Hahn basically saying that Kopech is starting at AAA to get the year of service they lost back, if you can read between the lines. So don't count on Kopech being in the rotation until after the 2020 MLB Draft. 

Kopech is going to have a limited number of innings in his arm next year.  Whether he starts in the bigs from OD and is shut down in August, or they keep kid gloves on, slowly work up his pitch count and innings in AAA and then bring him to the bigs in June, you're likely getting close to the same amount of (polished) big league innings.  Sure, perhaps you get slightly less overall innings since he'd pitch 30-40 innings in AAA in the 2nd scenario, but its definitely worth getting a year back.  And I don't know that 30-40 rusty Kopech innings are really going to make that much of a difference in the Sox overall record, especially if they do the right thing and sign 2 legitimate SP this offseason.  

Edited by ChiSox59

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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Kopech is going to have a limited number of innings in his arm next year.  Whether he starts in the bigs from OD and is shut down in August, or they keep kid gloves on, slowly work up his pitch count and innings in AAA and then bring him to the bigs in June, you're likely getting close to the same amount of (polished) big league innings.  Sure, perhaps you get slightly less overall innings since he'd pitch 30-40 innings in AAA in the 2nd scenario, but its definitely worth getting a year back.  And I don't know that 30-40 rusty Kopech innings are really going to make that much of a difference in the Sox overall record, especially if they do the right thing and sign 2 legitimate SP this offseason.  

If they sign 2 SP and they all stay healthy, they don't have room for Kopech unless they go to a 6 man rotation, or one pitcher sucks badly enough to have to be replaced. 

I believe in Giolito, Cease, and Lopez. Adding Kopech to the mix only leaves room for one. If they sign 2 SP, one is going to be of the Nova caliber. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If they sign 2 SP and they all stay healthy, they don't have room for Kopech unless they go to a 6 man rotation, or one pitcher sucks badly enough to have to be replaced. 

I believe in Giolito, Cease, and Lopez. Adding Kopech to the mix only leaves room for one. If they sign 2 SP, one is going to be of the Nova caliber. 

Having too much pitching is never a bad thing.  A 6 man rotation may not be an awful idea either with Kopech and Cease on innings limits and Rodon getting mixed back in at some point.  But yah, I am moreso referring to 1 SP from the top 4-5 available options, and then an Alex Wood type that could be moved to the pen or just traded in June/July.  

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Dane Dunning is looking like trade bait.

I don't see how the front office would be content going into 2020 without getting at least 1 big SP addition.  If they are going to think Strasburg and Cole are out of their price range there isn't much else I'd want.

Wheeler is going to have a draft pick attached to him, Bum I wouldn't want more than 2 years, then it's the Alex Woods and Jake Odorizzi's who would hardly be something to get excited about.  I don't think we have enough prospect ammo to pluck away a significant starter in a trade but who knows.

I'd prefer to spend a zillion dollars on Cole and try to trade for a RF since there isn't a great fit for this team out there.  Ozuna would be the only guy I'd actually want.  I wouldn't hate Puig but he's such a cancer and just kind of meh.  We really need a slugging LH bat to play in Right and there isn't one unfortunately.  

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Manny Machado is having a terribly disappointing season...

 

 

...and it’s still gonna be worth about 3 and a half wins. 

This is the “downside” of premium talent. 

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1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

Manny Machado is having a terribly disappointing season...

 

 

...and it’s still gonna be worth about 3 and a half wins. 

This is the “downside” of premium talent. 

He's also just 27 years old and signed a 10 year deal, and a fair amount of his value comes from his defense that is sure to deteriorate. 

I was one of the biggest proponents of signing MM on this board.  It sucks we missed out.  I would love for him to be our our squad.  But he isn't.  And that $300M CAN be more efficiently allocated.   It just remains to be seen if it will.  

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3 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Manny Machado is having a terribly disappointing season...

 

 

...and it’s still gonna be worth about 3 and a half wins. 

This is the “downside” of premium talent. 

He'd be the Sox' 2nd best position player this year and would have allowed the Sox to ease in Madrigal next year as a super sub and keep guys fresh.  Oh well, ship be sailed.

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5 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Manny Machado is having a terribly disappointing season...

 

 

...and it’s still gonna be worth about 3 and a half wins. 

This is the “downside” of premium talent. 

What does 3-3.5 during a “prime” age season turn into a few years from now once he’s past his “prime”?

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What does 3-3.5 during a “prime” age season turn into a few years from now once he’s past his “prime”?

It depends on whether or not you think he will bounce back. 

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2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He'd be the Sox' 2nd best position player this year and would have allowed the Sox to ease in Madrigal next year as a super sub and keep guys fresh.  Oh well, ship be sailed.

And they’d still be well below .500 this season while needing to fill the same holes (RF, DH, pitching) with $30M less to spend. Guys like Mendick and Garcia will provide depth at the super sub position. Madrigal needs to be a regular as soon as he’s promoted.

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And they’d still be well below .500 this season while needing to fill the same holes (RF, DH, pitching) with $30M less to spend. Guys like Mendick and Garcia will provide depth at the super sub position. Madrigal needs to be a regular as soon as he’s promoted.

They had a bad process but it gave an OK result with the Manny and Harper sweepstakes as neither guy looks like he's anywhere close to a superstar going forward.

That said the same process has led to horrible failures from Hahn time and time again when luck was not on his side.   They have to do better this offseason.

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1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

It depends on whether or not you think he will bounce back. 

I’d think he’d bounce back a little offensively at some point over the next couple seasons but I can’t imagine his defense will improve as he ages so those may very well offset.

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2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

They had a bad process but it gave an OK result with the Manny and Harper sweepstakes as neither guy looks like he's anywhere close to a superstar going forward.

That said the same process has led to horrible failures from Hahn time and time again when luck was not on his side.   They have to do better this offseason.

Agree 100%. There’s still a lot of holes to fill so they better pick the right guys if they have plans for competing next season.

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4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

They had a bad process but it gave an OK result with the Manny and Harper sweepstakes as neither guy looks like he's anywhere close to a superstar going forward.

That said the same process has led to horrible failures from Hahn time and time again when luck was not on his side.   They have to do better this offseason.

I'm not trying to bail them out quite yet, because only time is going to tell, but maybe, just maybe, their process was on point and they were the ones that valued Machado correctly. 

It just matters if that money does in fact get spent and spent well. 

Edited by mqr

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Inserting Manny Machado into this lineup next year would be really fun to watch.  Oh well.  Despite him having a down year he's still going to hit over 30 HR with an 800+ OPS. 

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2 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Inserting Manny Machado into this lineup next year would be really fun to watch.  Oh well.  Despite him having a down year he's still going to hit over 30 HR with an 800+ OPS. 

Is it truly a down year for him though? He’s had worse years at the plate and his 108 wRC+ this season isn’t that far off his career number. His performance last year was the outlier imo, not this season.

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