turnin' two Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Hey! I made a system that compares apples and oranges!! Everyone look at me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 4 hours ago, Jose Abreu said: It just really baffles me, because I'm definitely a pro-Sabermetrics guy, but the advanced metrics love Abreu's batted ball profile. So when people don't like Abreu, it's not really an advanced stats versus traditional stats thing. It's just a matter of whether the advanced stats people are actually researching him, or are just looking at one number (generally his WAR or his wRC+) for confirmation bias without actually diving into his contact profile I’ve been highlighting batted ball profile for a while now and generally agree, but Jose is striking out a ton more and walking way less. It’s very possible (or even likely) he’s selling out other parts of his game for power. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: So, just about everyone is ok with bringing him back for 1 year at the right price. A number of us are ok with 2 years or 1 year and an option for a 2nd year. Almost everyone who looks at this says that if he wants anything beyond that, he's going to have to hit the next 2 years because no team in baseball would sign him to a 3 year deal when his performance has already dropped off a lot. Also a lot of us understand that his free agent value right now is something like $10-$12 million on a 1 year deal, so anything beyond that is over-paying for a guy, and under Reinsdorf's roster, overpaying 1 guy means we have other guys we can't sign. Excellent post even though I still disagree with most of your position. That said ... as far as the above, basically the Abreu-dislikers (not haters) or Abreu-worryers pretty much agree with any Jose-lovers. He's not getting more than 2 years. That only became a recent concern when Passan or somebody mentioned a multi year deal. He's not getting a 5-year deal. You guys are more in line with Hahn thinking than I am. Trust me, it's going to be 2 year deal with some sort of third year option. I sense you and others will be freaking at any third year if that comes to fruition. I'd bet the house Abreu is gonna get 2 years 12.5 million a year with some sort of option for a third year that will make it easy for the Sox to let him go. My dream is he earns the 25 million for two years then if he's still producing, start signing him to one-year deals in the 3-8 million range. If his agent thinks there is a team or two that will give him significantly more than that, I guess there's the chance he goes thru the free agency deal, which would be dumb. All the concern about age can't help but reach the brains of even the Abreu-lovers like me. He's not getting some 5 year contract so you all can relax there. You guys may have to, gulp, suck it up and accept he could get that third year, though. All the money that hahn has wasted (Nova, Alonso, Jay this year) my take is who cares if Jose gets a little "lifetime appreciaion/clubhouse leadership" cash to spend instead of Jerry buying another boat or snowmobile for the grandkids. Edited August 22, 2019 by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: This this this. Thank you. I don't mind him returning, but no more than 2 years. I'd rather have Abreu than Smoak btw and it's a fairly easy choice. 100% agree with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 4 hours ago, Thad Bosley said: I'm a reasonable bloke, so I can see what you're saying about the years side of things, and acknowledge that point. In reconsidering then and seeing what a few others have suggested, I think a two-year contract in the $9M-$12M per range, with a team option for a third year, would be reasonable for a DH and for the production he'd likely put up during that time. And I’m all for something like 2/$25M. Hell, I’d probably be ok with a slightly higher AAV, it’s the years that I care about. I don’t want money and more importantly a roster spot committed to Jose in 2022 at the point in time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 4 hours ago, mqr said: 2 years is reasonable. But what freaks me out, is that if 2020 is the year that Jose totally crashes, there's no way Jerry moves on in 2021. Yup, that’s the concern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’ve been highlighting batted ball profile for a while now and generally agree, but Jose is striking out a ton more and walking way less. It’s very possible (or even likely) he’s selling out other parts of his game for power. In 81 less plate appearances, he has 12 less k’s than his rookie year. I would not say he is striking out a ton more. The walks, yes. He does have 10 more k’s than he had last year in a similar number was of plate, but especially in today’s game, where 140 or 150 is nothing,, 10 is a reasonable variance. power. He also has 6 more homers. Edited August 22, 2019 by Dick Allen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: In 81 less plate appearances, he has 12 less k’s than his rookie year. I would not say he is striking out a ton more. The walks, yes. He does have 10 more k’s than he had last year in a similar number was of plate, but especially in today’s game, where 140 or 150 is nothing,, 10 is a reasonable variance. power. He also has 6 more homers. His K rate has improved in August, so it’s not as bad as it was. But a 10% increase is still a red flag and something that shouldn’t be ignored when projecting out his age curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 It has nothing to do with the future, but while everyone is critical of Jose Abreu, let me remind people what an absolute steal he was for 72 million dollars over the duration of his sox career so far. If you told me 6 years ago he was gonna have 180 homers, 600 rbis and a 131 wRC+ over the next six years I'd have been more than ecstatic. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: His K rate has improved in August, so it’s not as bad as it was. But a 10% increase is still a red flag and something that shouldn’t be ignored when projecting out his age curve. His k rate is 1% higher this year than it was his rookie year. Not 10%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: His k rate is 1% higher this year than it was his rookie year. Not 10%. His K rate is 22% this year vs 20% last year...that’s a 10% increase in the rate. If his K rate was up 10 actual points, his rate would be up 50% vs prior year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: His K rate is 22% this year vs 20% last year...that’s a 10% increase in the rate. If his K rate was up 10 actual points, his rate would be up 50% vs prior year. Edit: sure, save further cluttering the thread. You wouldn't cite the percentage rate change when citing a change in outcomes. He strikes out in 1% more at bats. That is what matters. Edited August 23, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’ve been highlighting batted ball profile for a while now and generally agree, but Jose is striking out a ton more and walking way less. It’s very possible (or even likely) he’s selling out other parts of his game for power. I've been saying this all year. He's always been vulnerable to junk away. Now that he's gearing up to pull the pull more often he's especially vulnerable to it. More Ks and more defenders that can position themselves expecting a pulled ball. He's hitting the ball hard but he's not hitting it nearly in the right spots or enough. He is a guy that relies on a high average, not high OBP, to drive his value outside home runs and that part of his game is gone like sands through the hourglass. Father time ya know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 1 hour ago, greg775 said: my take is who cares if Jose gets a little "lifetime appreciaion/clubhouse leadership" cash to spend instead of Jerry buying another boat or snowmobile for the grandkids. Because it never comes out of JRs money and you don't get to pretend it will. Instead the money comes out of your next reliever. You sign a Will Ohman for 2 years instead of an Andrew Miller because of that money. Ohman is ok, Andrew Miller is one of the best relievers in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 39 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: His K rate is 22% this year vs 20% last year...that’s a 10% increase in the rate. If his K rate was up 10 actual points, his rate would be up 50% vs prior year. Overall it’s still 10 k’s in 125 games. He also has hit 6 more homers, so using the same math that is up, using the same math, 27%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 If Reinsdorf made this statement about RR, I'm finding a new team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: I've been saying this all year. He's always been vulnerable to junk away. Now that he's gearing up to pull the pull more often he's especially vulnerable to it. More Ks and more defenders that can position themselves expecting a pulled ball. He's hitting the ball hard but he's not hitting it nearly in the right spots or enough. He is a guy that relies on a high average, not high OBP, to drive his value outside home runs and that part of his game is gone like sands through the hourglass. Father time ya know? What does hitting the ball in the right spots mean? Do you believe that's something a hitter controls? Shifting has decreased, not increased, the past couple years. It plateued. He hits the ball the other way now more than ever. Edited August 23, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: Overall it’s still 10 k’s in 125 games. He also has hit 6 more homers, so using the same math that is up, using the same math, 27%. Yeah, citing the increase percentage of the rate and not the outcome is just disingenuous. What matters is how much the outcome went up, which is 1%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Edit: sure, save further cluttering the thread. You wouldn't cite the percentage rate change when citing a change in outcomes. He strikes out in 1% more at bats. That is what matters. I don’t follow. He’s striking out about 10% more frequently than last year, which represents a two point increase in his actual K rate. One reflects absolute change, the other relative. To say only one matters doesn’t make a lick of sense to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: Overall it’s still 10 k’s in 125 games. He also has hit 6 more homers, so using the same math that is up, using the same math, 27%. Which is why I said he’s selling other parts of his game for power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Yeah, citing the increase percentage of the rate and not the outcome is just disingenuous. What matters is how much the outcome went up, which is 1%. Lol...you said your background is finance and/or analytics and you’re somehow ignorant of relative change? Something ain’t jiving here guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Nardiwashere said: Why would the stat even take positions into account if it weren't meant to compare players of different positions? If you are only comparing 2Bs to 2Bs, there wouldn't be a need to adjust based on positional difficulty. That's why I think it sucks. Im speaking in terms of evaluating great players against each other and you can only compare players to their positional peers in most sports. Like in football, no one is comparing Rodgers to Mack. No one is comparing Jordan to Tim Duncan. Baseball is a sport where each position is really it's own thing. So if we are evaluating players, they should have similar positions and offensive expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Whoever decided to put Ron's name in the thread title it's like giving an alcoholic a bottle of liquor. I know some of you think the guy is likable but he's becoming a glorified troll and they are at best ignored . 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: What does hitting the ball in the right spots mean? Do you believe that's something a hitter controls? Shifting has decreased, not increased, the past couple years. It plateued. He hits the ball the other way now more than ever. If you want to tack on 15 points of average go ahead, here's the results of one xBABIP calculator I just ran. Another trope that needs to stop is how "horribly unlucky" he's been. I don't know enough about how teams are scouting him to have an opinion on if shifting is hurting him but I can't think it's helping. He's hitting less balls up the middle in general and those usually have higher BABIPS. Furthermore, ZIPS surely has some of system in place for normalizing BABIP, and guess what ZIPS sees rest of the way? A 275 batting average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Lol...you said your background is finance and/or analytics and you’re somehow ignorant of relative change? Something ain’t jiving here guy. Baseball statistics are cited based on their outcomes/outputs. They aren't based on a percentage change of their rates. By citing it that way you are trying to misrepresent the point and change. This is actually exactly what I was talking about earlier regarding using statistics in a way that doesnt reflect the story just because it better supports your point. When I need a lesson on relative change from an internet message board I'll go ahead and retire. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.