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Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox

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Hopefully when he gets more support he'll be more willing to take a walk. His walk rates have taken a step backwards and maybe that can be attributed to his lack of support around him.

Ftr, while I am obviously pro-analytics over traditional... that said, sabermatricians really do underrate and value such things as cultural assimilation for foreign players. There is value to being a leader to latin/Cuban teammates entering a new environment and culture. I can't quantify it which typically means you shouldnt account for it, but it exists and there is value there and he certainly provides a lot of it regardless of what one believes. The instillation of proper work ethic, professionalism and expectations are important in young players.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

That more people complain about Abreu than the actual garbage on this roster (Sanchez/Engel/Castillo/Detwiler/Osich/Santiago etc.) has always been amusing to me

How was I complaining about Abreu?

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6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How was I complaining about Abreu?

Wasn't about you, I was just responding to DA's last sentence about how this is such a "problem". My bad, I get why you would think I was talking about you based on how I quoted him. 

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33 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Hopefully when he gets more support he'll be more willing to take a walk. His walk rates have taken a step backwards and maybe that can be attributed to his lack of support around him.

Ftr, while I am obviously pro-analytics over traditional... that said, sabermatricians really do underrate and value such things as cultural assimilation for foreign players. There is value to being a leader to latin/Cuban teammates entering a new environment and culture. I can't quantify it which typically means you shouldnt account for it, but it exists and there is value there and he certainly provides a lot of it regardless of what one believes. The instillation of proper work ethic, professionalism and expectations are important in young players.

How about we keep Abreu and ditch the "latin whisperer" Rickie.  Sounds like a fair deal.

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49 minutes ago, mqr said:

Idk if you've noticed this, but the White Sox are not a good baseball team. 

I have noticed it, but right now, next year you will hope Eloy takes off, you will have a rookie in CF, a who knows in RF, probably a rookie at 2B, and another DH/1B and that's with Abreu. The guy has been streaky as can be the last couple of years. When he's cold, just about everytime, the same people come out of the woodwork, not only Ron, to tell you he is done. Then he gets hot again. Who knows, maybe with a better line up, the cold streaks don't last. But again, he isn't going to cost much relatively speaking. So why not have a guy who is good for 25-30 homers in a bad year when you have all these other holes to fill anyway? And I have no even gone into the pitching.  Do people really expect Kopech to be nails next year? I just hope he isn't the starting pitching version of Trevor Rosenthal.  

The team has a lot to add. I just don't think Abreu is addition by subtraction. That is just another position you will have to fill, and look who would be in charge of filling it, and check their track record. What are the odds of an upgrade?

Keep in mind the 3 Sox players who have a better OBP than Abreu are Moncada, .382 BABIP, McCann .380 BABIP, and Anderson, .391 BABIP. They, if not this year, most likely next, are going to have some regression. 

Edited by Dick Allen
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1 hour ago, Thad Bosley said:

It was a terrific post, in my opinion, because I thought the poster did a nice job of putting into context what Abreu has meant to the organization, and then simply advocated the team not nickle and dime someone of his caliber on the next contract with the guy. 

I believe the poster suggested a three year, $36M contract, which I don't believe is overpaying him, and even if it was, not by enough for anyone to get their knickers in a bunch over. 

I don't believe this qualifies as me supporting "unwavering loyalty" to the guy, either.  You have to admit, that might have been a teensy weensy hyperbolic on your end to suggest as much.  

Vile said at least 3/$36M, which would be a pretty big overpay, especially on the years side of things.  Do you really think teams will be eager to pay Abreu into his age 35 season?

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7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I have noticed it, but right now, next year you will hope Eloy takes off, you will have a rookie in CF, a who knows in RF, probably a rookie at 2B, and another DH/1B and that's with Abreu. The guy has been streaky as can be the last couple of years. When he's cold, just about everytime, the same people come out of the woodwork, not only Ron, to tell you he is done. Then he gets hot again. Who knows, maybe with a better line up, the cold streaks don't last. But again, he isn't going to cost much relatively speaking. So why not have a guy who is good for 25-30 homers in a bad year when you have all these other holes to fill anyway? And I am not even getting into the pitching.  Do people really expect Kopech to be nails next year? I just hope he isn't the starting pitching version of Trevor Rosenthal.  

The team has a lot to add. I just don't think Abreu is addition by subtraction. That is just another position you will have to fill, and look who would be in charge of filling it, and check their track record. What are the odds of an upgrade?

Keep in mind the 3 Sox players who have a better OBP than Abreu are Moncada, .382 BABIP, McCann .380 BABIP, and Anderson, .391 BABIP. They, if not this year, most likely next, are going to have some regression. 

Can we stop this lazy, tired trope?  Here is Jose Abreu's last 1100 PA:

abreu.png

He's not a "streaky good hitter" he's a "streaky mediocre hitter".  And he can't field.  And he's aging.  Folks, the 140 wRC+ Jose Abreu left the building a few years ago and he's never, ever coming back.  Going more than 1 year on him is insane.  He's projected as a 1.5 fWAR player.  You don't sign 33 year old DHs coming off two seasons of mediocrity to anything other than a one year deal.

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40 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Wasn't about you, I was just responding to DA's last sentence about how this is such a "problem". My bad, I get why you would think I was talking about you based on how I quoted him. 

No worries at all, just making sure I’m not coming off as complaining about Abreu.  I’m firmly in the middle on this matter, as I want to bring him back but don’t want to vastly overpay simply because of what he’s done for us in the past.

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16 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

How about we keep Abreu and ditch the "latin whisperer" Rickie.  Sounds like a fair deal.

Deal!

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Two things have to be certain if he comes back: He has to DH most of the games he plays in and he has to hit 5th most instead of 3/4. Maybe he can hit in those spots before other guys (Robert and Madrigal) come up and shift the lineup around but that's about it. 

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10 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Can we stop this lazy, tired trope?  Here is Jose Abreu's last 1100 PA:

abreu.png

He's not a "streaky good hitter" he's a "streaky mediocre hitter".  And he can't field.  And he's aging.  Folks, the 140 wRC+ Jose Abreu left the building a few years ago and he's never, ever coming back.  Going more than 1 year on him is insane.  He's projected as a 1.5 fWAR player.  You don't sign 33 year old DHs coming off two seasons of mediocrity to anything other than a one year deal.

According to @Balta1701, 1 WAR is worth $10.5M on the free agent market. Do we not think Abreu will accumulate 2 WAR over the next two seasons? I’ve proposed 2 years, $24M.

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2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Everyone keeps saying Abreu must DH next season but who do the Sox have that is better defensively at 1b?

They could tape a baseball glove to the first base bag and it would probably be as effective as Jose

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4 hours ago, poppysox said:

The oft repeated theme that Jose is a butcher in the field is overused IMO.  Most players have a strongest and weakest tool.  The GG fielder who can't hit...the speed merchant who can't steal 1st base... the good hitter who clogs the bases.  I think he does an adequate job and is actually good at digging balls out of the dirt.  He certainly wins more games with his bat than he cost us with his glove.

The cliche here is the modern stat fan is looking for the stat aficionado at every position for the rebuilt Sox as we've been saying. Most are saying Abreu's stats aren't good enough for the rebuilt team the next few years. They apparently think Vaughn's will be that. Every year there's a guy people dog on on this board. Now it's Abreu for some reason, the guy that many posters can't wait to blast and simply will not praise (I said many  posters; there are a handful that truly have his back). But let's update our search for perfect players in stat fans' eyes for the rebuilt WS title Sox 3B- Moncada (mission accomplished). SS-Tim (mission accomplished). 2B-Madrigal (mission accomplished). 1B-Vaughn; until Vaughn is ready still need somebody better than Abreu for one year).

LF-Eloy (mission accomplished). CF-Robert (mission accomplished). RF - Still need somebody since Rutherford apparently not good enough. C-Still need somebody even though McCann has looked like a perfect fit.

Pitchers-Fans not obsessing as much but Kopech (mission accomplished), Gio (mission accomplished). Cease (mission accomplished); that's it for starters right now who are good enough.

Relievers-Fans like Bummer a lot. Everybody else need to find perfect player; Colome probably not good enough to close in perfect team fans eyes.

DH - Still need one as well. Don't have one.

Edited by greg775

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1 minute ago, ron883 said:

They could tape a baseball glove to the first base bag and it would probably be as effective as Jose

Who’s the better internal option for 1b next season?

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Just now, Greg Hibbard said:

Jose Abreu now has a higher 2019 OPS+ than Javier Baez

what does Soxtalk think about that

I think comparing apples to oranges doesn't work and I personally DGAF about the Cubs.

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21 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I have noticed it, but right now, next year you will hope Eloy takes off, you will have a rookie in CF, a who knows in RF, probably a rookie at 2B, and another DH/1B and that's with Abreu. The guy has been streaky as can be the last couple of years. When he's cold, just about everytime, the same people come out of the woodwork, not only Ron, to tell you he is done. Then he gets hot again. Who knows, maybe with a better line up, the cold streaks don't last. But again, he isn't going to cost much relatively speaking. So why not have a guy who is good for 25-30 homers in a bad year when you have all these other holes to fill anyway? And I have no even gone into the pitching.  Do people really expect Kopech to be nails next year? I just hope he isn't the starting pitching version of Trevor Rosenthal.  

The team has a lot to add. I just don't think Abreu is addition by subtraction. That is just another position you will have to fill, and look who would be in charge of filling it, and check their track record. What are the odds of an upgrade?

Keep in mind the 3 Sox players who have a better OBP than Abreu are Moncada, .382 BABIP, McCann .380 BABIP, and Anderson, .391 BABIP. They, if not this year, most likely next, are going to have some regression. 

Based on their batted ball profiles, theres not significant regression expected for Tim or Yoan. Some? Sure, but not significant . 

Tim's career BABIP before this year (a year in which he's hit for more authority, sprayed the ball well and has a significantly higher LD% than his career - 23.2% compared to 20.1% entering this year) was 340. He can likely sustain 350-360 BABIPs with his current batted ball profile.

Yoan has a career BABIP of 356, so sustaining something like 370 isn't that far from his expected outcomes and he's sitting at 382 so there isn't significant fall off expected barring bad luck.

McCann will return to near league average around 310 - his hard contact rate is up over years past but not anywhere near enough to warrant his escalated BABIP.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Who’s the better internal option for 1b next season?

The baseball glove taped to first base. 

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Just now, Greg Hibbard said:

Jose Abreu now has a higher 2019 OPS+ than Javier Baez

what does Soxtalk think about that

Good job Hibbard. 

I mean Passan said it all. He wrote it's reasonable to give Abreu 25 mill over the next two years which is exactly what I've been saying. Some want an upgrade til Vaughn is ready. I wish everybody would rally around what Passan said. Nice 2 year deal, then one year deals til he pulls a late-era Konerko and is done.

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1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think comparing apples to oranges doesn't work and I personally DGAF about the Cubs.

How is comparing OPS+ to OPS+ comparing apples to oranges?

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Just now, ron883 said:

The Jose Abreu stans seem to think you can totally ignore defense and position played when comparing players

Except we are talking about Jose Abreu being a DH next year.

What defensive stats should I reference for a DH, ron? Please enlighten us

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Hopefully when he gets more support he'll be more willing to take a walk. His walk rates have taken a step backwards and maybe that can be attributed to his lack of support around him.

Ftr, while I am obviously pro-analytics over traditional... that said, sabermatricians really do underrate and value such things as cultural assimilation for foreign players. There is value to being a leader to latin/Cuban teammates entering a new environment and culture. I can't quantify it which typically means you shouldnt account for it, but it exists and there is value there and he certainly provides a lot of it regardless of what one believes. The instillation of proper work ethic, professionalism and expectations are important in young players.

There's also value in having at least one (he'd be the only one) veteran, been through the battles, White Sox on the team. The feel-good story of the postseason, Abreu, leading Sox to title. In the everlasting search for the perfect player, Abreu is easy for many fans to dismiss since he butchers a couple plays per week.

Edited by greg775

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5 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

How is comparing OPS+ to OPS+ comparing apples to oranges?

You're comparing an elite defender up the middle in his prime at SS/2B to an aging DH.  FFS there is a delta of 25 RUNS defensively between the two.  That's 2.5 WAR right there.  It's why Baez is at 4.3 fWAR and Jose is at .9 fWAR.

Defense matters.  Playing a position matters.  Age matters.  OPS+ does not at all encapsulate that.  Why the hell anybody would compare the two is beyond me.  Cubs infatuation I guess.

Edited by chitownsportsfan

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8 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Jose Abreu now has a higher 2019 OPS+ than Javier Baez

what does Soxtalk think about that

One is a very good young shortstop, and the other is a very bad old 1st basemen. It doesn't change the conversation at all. 

Edited by mqr
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