Reinsdorf assures Ron that Abreu will always be a White Sox

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

If you want to tack on 15 points of average go ahead, here's the results of one xBABIP calculator I just ran.  Another trope that needs to stop is how "horribly unlucky" he's been.  I don't know enough about how teams are scouting him to have an opinion on if shifting is hurting him but I can't think it's helping.  He's hitting less balls up the middle in general and those usually have higher BABIPS.

Furthermore, ZIPS surely has some of system in place for normalizing BABIP, and guess what ZIPS sees rest of the way?  A 275 batting average.

I don't think he's been unlucky. There are certainly reasons his average has gone down but it's not related to his spray chart or his BABIP being unlucky. Maybe 5 points or so at most.

Edited August 23, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Baseball statistics are cited based on their outcomes/outputs. They aren't based on a percentage change of their rates. By citing it that way you are trying to misrepresent the point and change. This is actually exactly what I was talking about earlier regarding using statistics in a way that doesnt reflect the story just because it better supports your point.

When I need a lesson on relative change from an internet message board I'll go ahead and retire.

I’m suggesting his strikeouts are up 10% vs prior year, which is a factual statement.  What in the fuck am I trying to represent other than implying it may be reflect the initials sign of a slowing bat and/or aging player?  This is where citing a relevant stat makes total sense.  You saying otherwise is disingenuous or you simply not wanting acknowledge being wrong.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m suggesting his strikeouts are up 10% vs prior year, which is a factual statement.  What in the fuck am I trying to represent other than implying it may be reflect the initials sign of a slowing bat and/or aging player?  This is where citing a relevant stat makes total sense.  You saying otherwise is disingenuous or you simply not wanting acknowledge being wrong.

Every player has an expected amount of at bats lost to a strike out entering a year. Let's say Jose's was expected to lose 100 of his 500 at bats to k's (20%) entering the season. Instead, he lost 110 (22%). He lost an additional 10 at bats which was 2% of his total outcomes. When worrying about resigning him and projection him, you worry about the 10 lost at bats - that is the key. The question is will he lose 10 more at bats next year? Which is another 2% of his outcomes.

When discussing something like baseball statistics, and explaining their impact, speaking in terms of outcomes to the masses is the more well understood way. While you are correct that he struck out 10% more because it's vs last years strike out numbers, what a lot of people hear is 10% more of his at bats end in a strike out. Explaining in terms more well versed with the point leads to a better understanding for the majority. It's not that you are wrong, it's that based on the conversation and concern of his overall regression impacted by the krate, you didn't cite the impact on the outcomes, you did it on the individual statistic to increase the contextual impact.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Every player has an expected amount of at bats lost to a strike out entering a year. Let's say Jose's was expected to lose 100 of his 500 at bats to k's (20%) entering the season. Instead, he lost 110 (22%). He lost an additional 10 at bats which was 2% of his total outcomes. When worrying about resigning him and projection him, you worry about the 10 lost at bats - that is the key. The question is will he lose 10 more at bats next year? Which is another 2% of his outcomes.

When discussing something like baseball statistics, and explaining their impact, speaking in terms of outcomes to the masses is the more well understood way. While you are correct that he struck out 10% more because it's vs last years strike out numbers, what a lot of people hear is 10% more of his at bats end in a strike out. Explaining in terms more well versed with the point leads to a better understanding for the majority. It's not that you are wrong, it's that based on the conversation and concern of his overall regression impacted by the krate, you didn't cite the impact on the outcomes, you did it on the individual statistic to increase the contextual impact.

Increasing the contextual impact?  He’s striking out 10% more of the time than last year.  I could turn this around and say you’re looking at just the absolute change in his K rate to minimize the YoY impact.  I wouldn’t because you’re trying to measure the effective impact on an outcome basis whereas I’m looking at the relative change in the underlying driver.  Maybe people will interpret it wrong, but there was nothing inherently disingenuous about my comment. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Increasing the contextual impact?  He’s striking out 10% more of the time than last year.  I could turn this around and say you’re looking at just the absolute change in his K rate to minimize the YoY impact.  I wouldn’t because you’re trying to measure the effective impact on an outcome basis whereas I’m looking at the relative change in the underlying driver.  Maybe people will interpret it wrong, but there was nothing inherently disingenuous about my comment. 

Laymans terms. 10% of his at bats have not been impacted by the escalation of his krate. His at bats is what we are evaluating. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[caulfield12]

You guys are comparing just the 2018-19 seasons...what's the overall trend for the last 3-4 seasons, once we rule out his rookie campaign, where he looked the part of a future MVP the first half?

Edited August 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Laymans terms. 10% of his at bats have not been impacted by the escalation of his krate. His at bats is what we are evaluating. 

?  Saying his strikeout rate has increased by 10% is not suggesting 10% of his ABs have been impacted.  And no, I’m not evaluating the outcome of his at-bats, but the change in the underlying driver.

[greg775]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Because it never comes out of JRs money and you don't get to pretend it will. Instead the money comes out of your next reliever. You sign a Will Ohman for 2 years instead of an Andrew Miller because of that money. Ohman is ok, Andrew Miller is one of the best relievers in baseball. 

Your comment is well taken. I just get sick of thinking about Jerry wasting all that money he could be using on those boats/vacation homes/luxury automobiles while pretending he's a small market team (despite recent article on what the team is worth) by signing stiffs like Alonso, Jay, Nova, Herrera, LaRoche. I feel like the money will be there or could be there regardless if Jose gets his 37.5 million total or not (over 3 years). We only need to buy one outfielder, 2 starters, maybe 3 and 1-2 relievers in the free agent market.

Now I do realize you are probably upset reading this thinking I missed your point. I get your point. If Jose gets 16 million over 2 years or 8 million over 1 year that leaves a lot more money to buy what we need in free agency. Yeah I get that, but this is a guy (me) who doesn't buy all the stuff Jerry is selling in terms of how poor the Sox are.

Edited August 23, 2019 by greg775

[Southwest Sider]

I gotta say, this thread has been a very interesting read with a lot of good back and forth between the two sides. Overall, I am warming up to keeping Abreu. I'd actually like to see if he changes his approach when he doesn't feel like he has to be the "RBI guy". It's possible we see a more selective Abreu next year, and also possible that those slumps where he swings at everything are shorter. The key to all of this will be to strong starts next year from guys like Moncada and Eloy. If they are crushing it, he will hopefully put less pressure on himself.

It's also possible that he gets worse, but I think it's a gamble you can take with 2/24 while our core is still so cheap. This isn't quantifiable but I just get a feeling that Jose will continue to produce at a somewhat similar rate for at least a few more years. What I mean is I don't expect that massive instant drop off. He finds his time enjoyable here, he has a basic clue of how to hit a baseball, he's not a complete old-timer yet, and he's incredibly excited about this teams future. I think that's a pretty good mix for success. Whether or not you think his current production is successful is another debate. 

Although he hates DHing (what else is new from old 1B-men), with any new contract there needs to be an agreement between him and management that he should expect to DH significantly more, especially when Vaughn is ready. I think he will luck himself into plenty of games at 1B next year because we will likely see a lot of Collins/McCann at rotating DH, but after next year all bets are off. In a 2 year deal I think he should expect to play much more DH in 2021, and be a good soldier about it. Vaughn is probably going to be the main guy at 1B in 2021, we can't have Jose complaining about DHing too much when that time comes. 

 

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, South Sider said:

Although he hates DHing (what else is new from old 1B-men), with any new contract there needs to be an agreement between him and management that he should expect to DH significantly more, especially when Vaughn is ready. I think he will luck himself into plenty of games at 1B next year because we will likely see a lot of Collins/McCann at rotating DH, but after next year all bets are off. In a 2 year deal I think he should expect to play much more DH in 2021, and be a good soldier about it. Vaughn is probably going to be the main guy at 1B in 2021, we can't have Jose complaining about DHing too much when that time comes. 

 

I think this concern is just fear mongering from the anti-Abreu people. Yes, he has stated that he prefers 1B, but like you said, what old 1B doesn't prefer to play the field? I can basically guarantee you that if he signs a new contract here, he isn't gonna become a clubhouse cancer or anything and complain that he's DHing while Vaughn plays 1B. 

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

Your comment is well taken. I just get sick of thinking about Jerry wasting all that money he could be using on those boats/vacation homes/luxury automobiles while pretending he's a small market team (despite recent article on what the team is worth) by signing stiffs like Alonso, Jay, Nova, Herrera, LaRoche. I feel like the money will be there or could be there regardless if Jose gets his 37.5 million total or not (over 3 years). We only need to buy one outfielder, 2 starters, maybe 3 and 1-2 relievers in the free agent market.

Now I do realize you are probably upset reading this thinking I missed your point. I get your point. If Jose gets 16 million over 2 years or 8 million over 1 year that leaves a lot more money to buy what we need in free agency. Yeah I get that, but this is a guy (me) who doesn't buy all the stuff Jerry is selling in terms of how poor the Sox are.

If you don't like how JR runs the team literally your only option is to become a fan of another team. 

The reality is - yes you can sign Jose Abreu to a 3 year deal, but that also means in 2021 you don't get someone else. For a not unreasonable example, You get to keep 2 of the 3: Jose Abreu, James McCann, and Alex Colome. Which do you let leave?

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I think this concern is just fear mongering from the anti-Abreu people. Yes, he has stated that he prefers 1B, but like you said, what old 1B doesn't prefer to play the field? I can basically guarantee you that if he signs a new contract here, he isn't gonna become a clubhouse cancer or anything and complain that he's DHing while Vaughn plays 1B. 

So the 100% obvious question is, why the F*** was he playing the field so often while Alonso, a better fielding 1b, was DHing?

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you don't like how JR runs the team literally your only option is to become a fan of another team. 

The reality is - yes you can sign Jose Abreu to a 3 year deal, but that also means in 2021 you don't get someone else. For a not unreasonable example, You get to keep 2 of the 3: Jose Abreu, James McCann, and Alex Colome. Which do you let leave?

Do you really think that signing Abreu for about 2 years to ~10-12 AAV is gonna preclude a team with basically no payroll from retaining a reliever or catcher?

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So the 100% obvious question is, why the F*** was he playing the field so often while Alonso, a better fielding 1b, was DHing?

Because saying Alonso is a better fielding 1B isn't really saying much, and the value gained from playing him there over Abreu is almost negligible 

[Balta1701]

31 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Do you really think that signing Abreu for about 2 years to ~10-12 AAV is gonna preclude a team with basically no payroll from retaining a reliever or catcher?

After seeing how Rick Hahn spent $50 million this offseason, and considering that Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada all hit arbitration in 2020 (so maybe $25 million in payroll increases right there)...yeah. 

[mqr]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

So the 100% obvious question is, why the F*** was he playing the field so often while Alonso, a better fielding 1b, was DHing?

And LaRoche

[Bob Sacamano]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

After seeing how Rick Hahn spent $50 million this offseason, and considering that Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada all hit arbitration in 2020 (so maybe $25 million in payroll increases right there)...yeah. 

Yeah, I would bet on it not getting that high for 3 first year arb eligible players.

[Greg Hibbard]

I think one of the things totally lost in this discussion is that Jose simply doesn’t need to necessarily be even the fourth best hitter on this team in 2020 or 2021. He just needs to be reliable, produce at 80% of his career numbers, and not get injured. It would be totally acceptable for Abreu to have a line like .265/.310/.460/.770 - which I think represents the very bottom of where I see him falling off - considering Robert, Madrigal, Jimenez, Anderson, Moncada, Vaughn, and an upgraded FA right field acquisition will also be in the lineup. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If you don't like how JR runs the team literally your only option is to become a fan of another team. 

The reality is - yes you can sign Jose Abreu to a 3 year deal, but that also means in 2021 you don't get someone else. For a not unreasonable example, You get to keep 2 of the 3: Jose Abreu, James McCann, and Alex Colome. Which do you let leave?

Can I choose to let all 3 leave? I’ll honestly be surprised if any of those 3 are anything better than league average...I hope we are shooting for better players if we are planning to seriously compete for a WS in the next few years 

[Balta1701]

33 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Yeah, I would bet on it not getting that high for 3 first year arb eligible players.

If Moncada and Giolito are anything like this level of player next year, then they're each >$10 million. I sure hope that they're that good next year. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Can I choose to let all 3 leave?

Apparently no because one of them has a guarantee. 

[Bob Sacamano]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If Moncada and Giolito are anything like this level of player next year, then they're each >$10 million. I sure hope that they're that good next year. 

You can also factor Colome and Herrera leaving for free agency after next year, along with Abreu if he only signs a one year deal. They have so much flexibility.

[TheFutureIsNear]

1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I think one of the things totally lost in this discussion is that Jose simply doesn’t need to necessarily be even the fourth best hitter on this team in 2020 or 2021. He just needs to be reliable, produce at 80% of his career numbers, and not get injured. It would be totally acceptable for Abreu to have a line like .265/.310/.460/.770 - which I think represents the very bottom of where I see him falling off - considering Robert, Madrigal, Jimenez, Anderson, Moncada, Vaughn, and an upgraded FA right field acquisition will also be in the lineup. 

So we should be happy with an average/below average player because the rest of the lineup MIGHT be really good in 2 years?

Not trying to improve the team to the best it possibly can be because we have prospects coming is just craziness and a great way to never get out of the rebuild. Some of those guys you listed are inevitably going to fail. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by TheFutureIsNear

[Balta1701]

39 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

You can also factor Colome and Herrera leaving for free agency after next year, along with Abreu if he only signs a one year deal. They have so much flexibility.

So out of the 3 people who I said you get to keep 2, you're letting Colome walk. Thank you for agreeing and explaining your position.

[Bob Sacamano]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So out of the 3 people who I said you get to keep 2, you're letting Colome walk. Thank you for agreeing and explaining your position.

You're acting like they're going to be at the luxury tax amount if they sign a few free agents and pay 3 players about $25 mill. Beyond next year, only Tim Anderson is officially under contract at $7.25 mill in 2021.

Edit: forgot the Eloy extension for some reason. And he will be earning $4.333 mill in 2021.

Edited August 23, 2019 by soxfan2014

[Jose Abreu]

12 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

You're acting like they're going to be at the luxury tax amount if they sign a few free agents and pay 3 players about $25 mill. Beyond next year, only Tim Anderson is officially under contract at $7.25 mill in 2021.

Edit: forgot the Eloy extension for some reason. And he will be earning $4.333 mill in 2021.

I understand not thinking that they're gonna sign big name free agents, but thinking that they're gonna maintain some of the lowest inflation-adjusted payrolls in franchise history is honestly an impressive level of front office hatred