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Jack Parkman

Moncada's ceiling

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

He might have a lot of seasons in the 33-39 HR range but never actually hits 40. 

Next year is his age 25 season. I'm not trying to be an ass here, really not, but that means he has about 7 years left of awesomeness according to the new age "guidelines" of execs. Even Passan called Abreu aging at 33 so this is the prime age range you need to look at for Moncada: Now through his age 32 season.

So an average of 35 homers times eight seasons gives him 280 homers. He's already hit 45 so give him 10 homers a year average from age 33 to 38 and that's 50 more. Does he project to maybe 375-400 homers. Not bad at all. Thomas is Sox career homer leader at 448.

A good question is to how many home runs will Eloy hit? He projects to bash a lot of home runs if he gets his 550-600 at bats per year.

Edited by greg775

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2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Prime Robinson Cano. Perennial top 5 MVP candidate.  

.320/.380/.540 type lines.  

I don't think we'll ever see Moncada play 160 games a year like Cano did for all those seasons, but he can be a comparable player.

Its insane what cano did.  From 2007-2017, these were Cano's GP: 160, 159, 161, 160, 159, 161 ,160, 157, 156, 161, 150 

And people were critical of him not running every ball out lol.

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3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada has a game power issue. His raw power is off the charts but it doesn't translate to games as well as Robert's does. I think Moncada has the ability to hit 40+ HR but idk if he ever gets there. He might have a lot of seasons in the 33-39 HR range but never actually hits 40. 

Jack, sometimes you say things that I just can't comprehend. Saying he'll have a lot of seasons between 33-39 but never 40 makes zero sense.

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6 hours ago, Superstar Lamar said:

I think you guys are a little generous on his HR power.  I think he maxes out at 30.

Agreed but I can see around 35. If there's one guy we have that I can easily see hitting 40+ is Eloy. I still would like to see Ricky enhance his speed tool better (not just going from second to home) however. Kid should be a walking 30-30 guy. Instead he's using 4 of his 5 tools even when Moncada was healthy early on.

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jack, sometimes you say things that I just can't comprehend. Saying he'll have a lot of seasons between 33-39 but never 40 makes zero sense.

Yeah...I was like so you think he can hit 39...but not one more in a season?

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8 hours ago, mqr said:

I can't get down with saying Luis Robert has 50 homer potential, but a guy with best in baseball level exit velos doesn't. 

Yup, doesn’t really make a ton of sense.

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5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The one thing that does make me wonder how good Moncada will ultimately be if he actually enjoys playing and competing. There just seems to be times when he doesn't seem into it. Obviously, talent wise, he has few peers. 

He spent a chunk of his winter in Arizona working on changing his approach at the plate.  Just because he doesn’t play with a lot of emotion, doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not a high effort guy.

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I remember back in March/April, the board complaining about how the White Sox “killed Moncada’s value” by moving him to 3b. Meanwhile, in his first season at 3b he’s on pace for 5.4 fWAR (in just 125 games). I’d say that’s pretty valuable.

As far as ceiling, 8 fWAR (aka best 3b in MLB) sounds about right. 

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