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State of the Sox 2019


BamaDoc
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I was waiting for the season to wind down and work delayed me from starting what will be several posts of where we are, 40 man, and what to do.  thxfrthmmrs beat me to some of this so tip of the cap to him.  The 2019 WS were bad.  In many ways we were worse than out actual record.  In other threads some state that many who contributed to our suckiness will be gone but they are only partially correct.  In order to go forward, I think we realistically need to see where we are, identify the good and bad in order to develop a plan forward.  Hopefully our front office is doing this constantly.  I am using baseball reference(BR) and fan graphs(FG) data.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2019&lg=MLB&stat=WAR  According to WAR of playoff teams, we are 15-20 WAR from being a contender.  You can argue some of these stats may not be the best to use but anyway.....

Something good:  I was surprised to see that by WAR, we had the sixth best bullpen (BR).  Unfortunately we had the worst SO/W .  While our GB% was second best, we were league best in lowest hard hit ball percentage. (FG)  This was mentioned in a Athletic article that while most of our starters are using the high fastball approach, many of our relievers are going for grounders.  Our HR rate was a little better than average so pitching down didn't kill us.  Conversely for SIERRA people, we were the worst.  My take away is it is not as bad as I thought.  Think pitching is bad all over baseball.  Could certainly improve but a lot of young options also are on the way.  

Bad:  Our batters should never see a strike, well almost never.  We walk at the lowest rate in baseball and strikeout nearly at the highest yielding the worst W/SO ratio in baseball.  That includes NL teams who bat pitchers.  We swing at a higher rate at balls than any team but the Tigers and we make contact with those pitches less than anyone but the Royals.  While some of this is our scrubs, many are significant players.  You can tolerate this if a player makes up for it in another area like power leading to a decent OPS or WRC.  However we have Leury not walking, slugging .374 while striking out 136 times.  Yolmer slugging .322 with 112ks .  McCann 135 k 28.8% rate , Abreu 150k .  Moncada improved greatly but still 150k  and Eloy 132 though both made up for it in other ways and you hope they improve further.  In a weird stat, we have the highest batting average on balls in play.  Unfortunately this is a stat which often portends regression.  Anderson and Moncada are near .400.   McCann is way above his norm at .363.  If those three regress next year you are probably needing even more added WAR to contend.  

By WAR, we have the second worst overall outfield.  Especially in RF as all are aware by now.  Eloy could improve his defense as well as settle in even better at the plate(remember when Hahn said he didn't come up because they wanted him to improve defensively? Sure you do.).  Robert should eventually fix centerfield though I think he will get a steady diet of sliders off the plate away and fastballs up out of the zone.  He hopefully doesn't bite but he has almost always had a pretty low walk rate.  RF I will get to in another post of what to do to fix but currently I don't think this years options will be the answer or return.

We have by WAR the worst DH combos in baseball.  Again the answer probably comes from the outside although if Abreu is back, which we all expect the team to do, hopefully more time is spent at DH.  Despite Jose's 121 RBI and offensive contributions, his glove is still still still -1+ WAR.  He needs more time at DH and who knows how much the infield defense/errors improve with a better glove.

SP:  Giolito huge plus.  Hopefully holds steady but not sure you can expect 5+ WAR.  Lopez starts.  Reinforcements on the way from injury though may not begin the year with the big club.  Cease depending on spring training and you probably need a couple more.  Previewing, one or two free agents you can pencil in for awhile.  One swing and possibly one you sign could be flippable as people get healthy.  Nova gets some consideration.  More in later posts.

 

So thats kind of the review.  We have real issues and a lot of solutions to come from outside.  We have earned the draft pick we get.  There are so many issues I am thinking .500 maybe before contending seriously unless things break right where players don't regress, others improve, acquisitions perform(that would be a change) and good health(would really be nice).   The good news is there are a lot of guys who got there chance during the rebuild and can pretty safely be moved on from but I will get to that more in the 40 man discussion.  

Edited by BamaDoc
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Without Grandal, they’re really depending on Collins to pick up for a McCann regression to previous form...not to mention the defensive consequences on a (still) young and enigmatic pitching staff.

That said, the Dodgers had their own issues with Grandal, and not sure how much damage Collins can do defensively versus the potential benefits of a changing in philosophy from the pitching coach (which won’t conceivably occur until mid-season 2020 or later.)

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5 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

We have real issues and a lot of solutions to come from outside. 

I like your post. This team is nowhere near contending unfortunately. We'll see how much Robert and Madrigal kickstart the lineup and if Hahn can rebuild a pitching staff. Our staff is so bad this team currently has no chance of sniffing .500 next year at this time. Arguably we could have a worse record next year. You advanced statters ... combining all the war and everything, did this team overachieve a lot this season to get the record it has?

Edited by greg775
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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Without Grandal, they’re really depending on Collins to pick up for a McCann regression to previous form...not to mention the defensive consequences on a (still) young and enigmatic pitching staff.

That said, the Dodgers had their own issues with Grandal, and not sure how much damage Collins can do defensively versus the potential benefits of a changing in philosophy from the pitching coach (which won’t conceivably occur until mid-season 2020 or later.)

Meanwhile we are waiting for the McCann regression I wonder how much the Sox would throw at Grandal.  He's 30 and would have to adjust to playing in the AL.  I think the issue would be how many years he would get.

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3 hours ago, greg775 said:

I like your post. This team is nowhere near contending unfortunately. We'll see how much Robert and Madrigal kickstart the lineup and if Hahn can rebuild a pitching staff. Our staff is so bad this team currently has no chance of sniffing .500 next year at this time. Arguably we could have a worse record next year. You advanced statters ... combining all the war and everything, did this team overachieve a lot this season to get the record it has?

 We probably won't have a worse record next year unless they retain the whole starting rotation.  Contention is probably 2021.

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On 9/25/2019 at 11:31 PM, kitekrazy said:

Meanwhile we are waiting for the McCann regression I wonder how much the Sox would throw at Grandal.  He's 30 and would have to adjust to playing in the AL.  I think the issue would be how many years he would get.

McCann did regress this second half.  .225 /.282/.417 for OPS .698   His BABIP was .407 in first half .298 in second.  For Grandal in my plan post I proposed 3-60 with payouts of 24/20/16 with maybe a fourth year 16 option.  What you think?

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On 9/25/2019 at 7:15 PM, SonofaRoache said:

I'm just glad the rebuild is almost officially over. Time to start making this team better. Trades that improve the team immediately and being excited about quality free agents begins a few months from now. 

Hold your horses. If we trade prematurely we get in trouble again. 
 

I agree on free agency, though. 

Edited by Eloy Jiménez
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