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BamaDoc

A Realistic Offseason

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As the season is about over thanks to everyone for their participation this year.  If you have read parts one and two on our year and 40 man, I want to reemphasize a couple things.  Our plate discipline was atrocious.  We obviously have Robert and Madrigal on the way but a lot of our other prospects are returning from significant injuries.  Our pitching staff needs help.  RF and DH were league worst.  Aside from Robert, our logjam of outfield prospects didn't distinguish themselves and don't look to provide help next year.  By WAR, we are 15-20 WAR from contending and frankly some BABIP metrics could portend some regression for Moncada, Anderson, McCann so you might need a bit more.  If Moncada could trim another 40-50 ks that cold offset and Anderson might return some walks as I think he is extra aggressive with a batting title on the line.

Expectation #1  Abreu is brought back.  Betting 2 -3 years.  Hopefully year 3 is option.  I bet it will be more dollars than we like.  Hopefully DH's more.

My thoughts.  I don't expect us to get Cole.  He is a SoCal guy, many teams in the hunt including Angels who I would make the favorite unless the Yankees really want him.  He is probably the only free agent I would forfeit the draft pick and its associated pool dollars as I think we need to keep rebuilding.  I also don't think we have the prospect depth to make a major acquisition unless it involves taking a bad contract back and using our payroll flexibility as several teams have budget concerns.  Unfortunately, I don't see our front office being/allowed to be that creative.

Target #1 Grandal.  He just makes so much sense for our team.  He has stated he wants to set the market for future players so he isn't coming cheap and a lot of teams will want him.  His WAR values are very different on Baseball Reference 1.4-3.3 range last few years and FanGraphs 4.1-5.8.  He is very consistent, avg about 15% better bat than league average.  Solid glove and great plate discipline walking around 10%.  Switch hits and has been used all through the Brewers lineup 1-6.  Turned down 4 years 60 million last year.  I would start with 3-60 with 24-20-16 payout and add in a 16 million fourth year option.  He would probably play everyday for us.  McCann would also catch and they both would be fresher and hopefully more productive sharing the load.  When not catching, Grandal would DH or play some first.  If you got him, the RF addition is able to be lower in the lineup and there are not a lot of great FA options out there.

Target #2 Brett Gardner.  Haven't seen him mentioned but hear me out.  First, I hope to have a home grown RF in 2021-22.  Hopefully one of ours develops from the multitude of options.  The Yankees have a bunch of outfielders, some dollar concerns and I could see Gardner leaving.  He is 36 but has been amazingly durable at 140ish games per year.  Playing mainly center for Yankees with positive defensive metrics(one of few available with a good glove helping young pitchers).  The last 7 years has WAR ranges of 2.8-4.9 and currently at 4.1 this year.  A professional with playoff experience who would be useful for our youngsters as another mentor.  His home/road splits are equal so not a product of Yankee stadium.  Another guy with around a 10% walk rate and strikes out less than 20%.  Again that plate discipline would help make pitchers work and hitting left handed balances lineup better.  Because of Grandal you could hit him lower in the order.  I think a two year deal could get him and don't think it would be super expensive12-15 annually?

Plan B Nimmo? Popular pick on board but will cost prospects.  Saw a rumor Mets looking for CF.  Mets have budget issues.  Would/could you take Jed Lowrie at 10 million for one year to lessen your prospect cost?  LOL Yolmer and Engel and lesser prospect for Nimmo and Lowrie.

Other Plan B's for Gardner all have warts.  Calhoun could be let go especially if Angels get Cole.  More strikeouts at about 25% and lower average(Dunn light?) but decent glove and walks 10%.  Zobrist 39, terrible spring good OBP switch hits.  Dickerson 31 good bat but never played RF and has broken foot.  Puig no draft pick issue, right handed, pretty consistent , I guess ok.  Jay Bruce? older expensive but wouldn't cost much prospect wise.

Okay 2019 WAR for our RF and DH is -2.3 so Grandal and Gardner good for 7ish so 9WAR improvement!  

Fun Fact:  Our starting pitchers generated 5.8 WAR.  Giolitto has 5.8 WAR.  What we have trotted out in the 4/5 slots is truly epic.  The rebuild will be over when no one types this is the  future: Covey -1.2 ,Detwiler -.5 , Santanna -.3, Banuelos -.4, Santiago -.4, Fulmer -.4 and Despaigne -.3  Totalling -3.5.  Cease was -.1 so hopefully if he improves you gain a couple WAR there.  Kopech something positive but I wouldn't hand either a automatic job.  Could they regain a year of control on Kopech by keeping him down a month out of Chicago cold?  I mention this because having reasonable pitchers could gain enough to put you in contention.  Our bullpen ranked 6th and Herrera seems to be getting healthy.  If he is his normal you could gain 2 WAR.  I point all this out because I doubt we sign a big time pitcher to a big time contract.  Cole is clearly elite and most of the rest have questions.  The history of long term pitching contracts is not great on the team end.  I would try to strike quickly before bigger dollar teams who lose out on "name" FA pivot back.  A qualifying offer drops my interest and those that have them except Cole may have a slower market.  Also starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings all the time.  Maybe you should grow and develop pitchers continually and never give the big contract unless they are really special, kind of like running backs in the NFL.

Target #3 Jake Odorizzi RHP, 30.  Not a huge innings guy 170ish.  3.5 WAR this year but probably a 2 WAR guy. 2-3 years?  12-14?  Kick the tires on Kuechel. Bring back Nova?  Only six players beat his 2 WAR on this years team.  His totals are what we traded for just bad first half colors perception of his season.

Target #4 Another starter, possible swing guy or a veteran you could deal if our pitchers are healthy/performing at break. Rodon should return around the break though will he start or relieve?

Well there you have it.  Not sexy but realistic.  Our best chance to have an ace is to develop one.  This projects to gain the 15-20 WAR for us to contend.  Again, thanks to everyone who took the time to read this and for your involvement throughout the year.  Nice to know I don't suffer alone.

 

 

Edited by BamaDoc
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I’m excited to see what shakes out in Boston. If they are prepared to shed salary OR signal that mookie will not be re-signed opens a lot of possibilities.

I don’t love the Gardner idea, but I’d take him over Calhoun.

I wonder what Solers availability may be. With ownership switch, decent control, it would be an interesting fill of RF.

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56 minutes ago, bmags said:

I’m excited to see what shakes out in Boston. If they are prepared to shed salary OR signal that mookie will not be re-signed opens a lot of possibilities.

I don’t love the Gardner idea, but I’d take him over Calhoun.

I wonder what Solers availability may be. With ownership switch, decent control, it would be an interesting fill of RF.

Soler has a -1.8 WAR as a fielder.  With Eloy in left.........our poor center fielder!

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Thanks Greg.  As the post was long, didn't mention a couple other things I would do.  Robert and Madrigal arriving allow Leury to become the super utility.  I would offer Yolmer 3 yrs 10-12 million and if you can't work out a deal trade/nontender him.  Leury has to work on fixing the so/w issues.  For a guy  with little power a 138/20 so/w ratio is unacceptable.  If you get to late innings and use him in left with Robert cf, Gardner rf , that would actually give you some decent defense.  Credit to him for a healthier year and their positional versatility could allow you to carry Collins as a third catcher LH DH/1B.  Maybe even free Yermin!  

There are a host of bullpen pitchers at AAA and lower who I think will allow you to piece together a decent bullpen.  Colome and Herrera will cost about 18 million next year so I don't know if another expensive arm is added.  It would be nice if Burdi, Hamilton, or Burr could reestablish their ceilings.  Few mention that with relievers having to face 3 batters or the end of an inning how it will impact LOOGYs.  Bummer has no split issues so lefties like him will have even higher value.  Left handed batters may be a little better off if they aren't facing LOOGYs anymore which is another reason I wish to add some LH bats.

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1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

If we could negotiate an extension with Mookie before trading for him you do that all day.  Not that this has any chance of happening.  

Mookie without either Sale or Price attached would cost Robert or Kopech+, so just wait a year. If he comes with Sale and $30M I might think about it. Then you have to sign Betts to an 8/250 deal. I don't think he's going to get $300M at 28. Those 2 years between he and Harper make a difference. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Mookie without either Sale or Price attached would cost Robert or Kopech+, so just wait a year. If he comes with Sale and $30M I might think about it. Then you have to sign Betts to an 8/250 deal. I don't think he's going to get $300M at 28. Those 2 years between he and Harper make a difference. 

He has a year left before FA.  There is no way Boston gets someone close to Robert or Kopech.

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Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

He has a year left before FA.  There is no way Boston gets someone close to Robert or Kopech.

I'd still rather wait a year. Hes not signing an extension with one year left anyway so just wait.

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39 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I'd still rather wait a year. Hes not signing an extension with one year left anyway so just wait.

I'm with this train of thought. I don't want the Sox to blow their entire wad this offseason. If they're going to sign a big fish, it should be Betts. Keep this year's pitching signings in the non-Gerrit Cole tier. Save that money for Betts. 

I'd take the chance on Sale as a pure salary dump, granted there are conditions that if he has any arm surgery the Sawx cover his salary for the missed year. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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I like bringing Abreu back (3/42?) and ridding ourselves of deadweight

Otherwise, hard pass on Gardner, Grandal, Lowrie, Nimmo (unless crazy cheap)

Cole is a pipe dream, as is Ozuna probably unfortunately

While I want Cole/Strasburg/Ozuna as Sox I think we should prepare ourselves for Alex Gordon/Nick Markakis and a Miley/Hamels type

Former Sox Avisail Garcia and Jose Quintana honestly make sense for us as well

That being said, fully comfortable with:

McCann
Abreu
Madrigal
Moncada
Anderson
Eloy
Robert
Leury

Collins, Yolmer on bench 

And

Gio, Kopech (on IP limit), Cease, Lopez, and eventually Rodon

Wouldn't be upset with Avi, Gordon, Q, and Hamels as offseason acquisitions

Obviously prefer JD Martinez, Ozuna/Castellanos, Cole and Wheeler, but let's get real 

Gio, Q, Hamels, Cease, Lopez, Kopech*, Rodon*

Robert, Anderson, Moncada, Abreu, Eloy, Gordon, Avi, McCann, Madrigal

Quality bench in Collins, Sanchez, Leury

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16 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

I like bringing Abreu back (3/42?) and ridding ourselves of deadweight

Otherwise, hard pass on Gardner, Grandal, Lowrie, Nimmo (unless crazy cheap)

Cole is a pipe dream, as is Ozuna probably unfortunately

While I want Cole/Strasburg/Ozuna as Sox I think we should prepare ourselves for Alex Gordon/Nick Markakis and a Miley/Hamels type

Former Sox Avisail Garcia and Jose Quintana honestly make sense for us as well

That being said, fully comfortable with:

McCann
Abreu
Madrigal
Moncada
Anderson
Eloy
Robert
Leury

Collins, Yolmer on bench 

And

Gio, Kopech (on IP limit), Cease, Lopez, and eventually Rodon

Wouldn't be upset with Avi, Gordon, Q, and Hamels as offseason acquisitions

Obviously prefer JD Martinez, Ozuna/Castellanos, Cole and Wheeler, but let's get real 

Gio, Q, Hamels, Cease, Lopez, Kopech*, Rodon*

Robert, Anderson, Moncada, Abreu, Eloy, Gordon, Avi, McCann, Madrigal

Quality bench in Collins, Sanchez, Leury

Good god man, that would be absolutely horrible and reflect a team with like an $80M payroll at best.  There is nothing “real” about this scenario whatsoever.

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ChiSoxJohn Honest question why the hard pass on Grandal and Gardner?  Many of your preferred cost the draft pick and associated dollars which I don't want to lose.

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3 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

Thanks Greg.  As the post was long, didn't mention a couple other things I would do.  Robert and Madrigal arriving allow Leury to become the super utility.  I would offer Yolmer 3 yrs 10-12 million and if you can't work out a deal trade/nontender him.  Leury has to work on fixing the so/w issues.  For a guy  with little power a 138/20 so/w ratio is unacceptable.  If you get to late innings and use him in left with Robert cf, Gardner rf , that would actually give you some decent defense.  Credit to him for a healthier year and their positional versatility could allow you to carry Collins as a third catcher LH DH/1B.  Maybe even free Yermin!  

 There are a host of bullpen pitchers at AAA and lower who I think will allow you to piece together a decent bullpen.  Colome and Herrera will cost about 18 million next year so I don't know if another expensive arm is added.  It would be nice if Burdi, Hamilton, or Burr could reestablish their ceilings.  Few mention that with relievers having to face 3 batters or the end of an inning how it will impact LOOGYs.  Bummer has no split issues so lefties like him will have even higher value.  Left handed batters may be a little better off if they aren't facing LOOGYs anymore which is another reason I wish to add some LH bats.

ANOTHER great post. Is anybody against giving RF to Avi? 2 years, 11 million total? He'll give you 25 home runs if he's healthy in the Cell, 75 RBI and .260 to 270 BA. Also a White Sox through and through now with playoff experience coming. Avi baby OK with everybody? Anybody besides Greg? He's very cost efficient if you need to put the $$ in pitching too. 

I mean do we really want to pay a RF candidate huge bucks when we still have guys in our system that may pan out in the OF? Like Rutherford? Couple other guys too might respond to MLB and do well. 

(addendum note: when i talk about money in threads please realize I don't care about Jerry's money but I realize payroll is a factor in discussing the Sox)

Edited by greg775

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Good god man, that would be absolutely horrible and reflect a team with like an $80M payroll at best.  There is nothing “real” about this scenario whatsoever.

Can't see CWS winning over Cole, Strasburg, Ozuna types...hopefully I'm wrong...Winning isn't determined by money spent however, I love the youth of this team and rather see them develop than overpay a handful of guys

I'd say it's very "real" Hahn and KW fall flat yet again and settle for lesser, but hopefully effective FAs

1 hour ago, BamaDoc said:

ChiSoxJohn Honest question why the hard pass on Grandal and Gardner?  Many of your preferred cost the draft pick and associated dollars which I don't want to lose.

Aside from getting stuck with likely expensive deals with older players, I don't see them happening, not with this FO, they'll be outbid on both and if they aren't they're overpaying which I fear

Grandal I wouldn't mid as much as Gardner, but he'll be a lot of money for a .240 AVG

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BamaDoc has some interesting suggestions.  But as for some of the other suggestions in this thread, if this organization isn't thinking higher than giving Yolmer three years or bringing back Avi ...... lord help us 

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4 hours ago, greg775 said:

Is anybody against giving RF to Avi? 2 years, 11 million total? 

Yes.  Unequivocally yes.

4 hours ago, greg775 said:

Also a White Sox through and through

Especially when sentimentality is involved.  The time for that is past.  Or, frankly, never existed if the goal is to win a championship. 

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26 minutes ago, RTC said:

Yes.  Unequivocally yes.

Especially when sentimentality is involved.  The time for that is past.  Or, frankly, never existed if the goal is to win a championship. 

What about to DH for cheap when we accept JDM isn't an option? A .280 and 20+ bombs looks good to me

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4 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

What about to DH for cheap when we accept JDM isn't an option? A .280 and 20+ bombs looks good to me

So:

- your basing your expectations going forward based on the 1 most recent year of an eight year career?

- you’re willing to accept -4.6 defensive WAR? (based on the same year you’re picking offensive stats)

- you don’t think the Sox can afford better? (And no, I’m not talking about JDM)

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11 minutes ago, RTC said:

So:

- your basing your expectations going forward based on the 1 most recent year of an eight year career?

- you’re willing to accept -4.6 defensive WAR? (based on the same year you’re picking offensive stats)

- you don’t think the Sox can afford better? (And no, I’m not talking about JDM)

- When healthy, Avi always had a respectable AVG na drespectable pop

- I'd want him to DH and backup in RF and don't value WAR

- Who? Castellanos? Maybe

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6 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

- Who? Castellanos? Maybe

OK, fine, considering this thread is titled "A Realistic Offseason", I'LL BITE but it's all about TOTAL roster construction, not just one position:

PREMISE : this team has way more more payroll available that most people understand.  Enough that they need to be thinking WAY beyond friggin' Avi Garcia or Yolmer Sanchez.
ASSUMPTION : agree or disagree, they're going to re-sign Abreu.  I'm convinced of this.  I think we need to accept it.
ASSUMPTION : plug the holes on offense, while upgrading the defense, but emphasize starting pitching.
ASSUMPTION : Robert and Madrigal up mid-April
ASSUMPTION : RF defense doesn't suck

PAYROLL (spitballing here, anyone feel free to nitpick but I don't think I'm WAY off base here):
$15M base (all they have is TA, Herrara, and Eloy)

$20M for Arb and league minimum players (Arb is largely McCann and Colome)
$12M Abreu (I'm thinking/hoping they'll do 2+1option, 12/10/opt)
------------
that's $47M, hypothetically add:
$10 Gardner for RF (I like BamaDoc's idea, but pick equiv if you have better RF idea)
$15M Grandal
$12M Moose (2+opt, move Jose to DH, Moose can be 1B, along w/ Mendick can hold 2B until Madrigal and can provide 3B, DH, left-handed bench)
$6M bullpen (because... bullpen - you better sign a body or two)
$32M for 2 starters (take your pick based on this budget - I'm thinking one #2 plus an inning eater)
--------------
That works out to be $122M payroll which is roughly the Twins payroll.  If you disagree with my #'s and think it's $130+, fine, they can afford it.

ROSTER ASSUMPTIONS:
- Abreu is primary DH
- with 26 roster spots you can afford to carry someone like Engel, if can at least hit .245
- McCann/Collins rotate between C/DH/1B
- If Abreu needs to pay 1B a couple times x week to keep him happy, fine, whatever

You've added:
- Robert, Madrigal, Moose, Gardner, Grandal, to Moncada, TA, Abreu, and Eloy.  Hella lineup. 
- 3x LH bat
- 3x veterans, all with playoff experience
- 3x guys with avg to above ave OBP
- 2 starters
- bullpen support
- You've upgraded, defensively at 1B/RF/C

AND ....:
- you've upgraded 1B, C, and RF WITHOUT BLOCKING LONG TERM Sheets/Vaughn, Collins, or Basabe/Rutherford/Adolfo/Walker

That's way better than Yolmer and Avi, and has nothing to do with chasing JDM or, Cole.

Now .... do I think this organization can pull this off .....?  But this is what's possible.  We need to dream bigger than Avi or Yolmer.

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1 Cole Calhoun AND Nick Castellanos  Get 'em both.

2. A top or middle  of rotation (1,2 or 3 slot) starter.

3. Bullpen arm or two.

4. Don't trade away any players in our core.

 

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With Robert and Madrigal in the 2020 White Sox lineup I don't expect Hahn to add  much to the lineup this off season. Marco Gonzales was rumored to be traded a few months ago. He might be a target for Hahn. He's young and he 's a lefty. something the White Sox don't have in their rotation. Hopefully they will acquire either Odorizzi or Wheeler to help out the starting rotation.  Other than acquiring starting pitching I don't expect a lot of activity from Hahn.

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12 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

With Robert and Madrigal in the 2020 White Sox lineup I don't expect Hahn to add  much to the lineup this off season. Marco Gonzales was rumored to be traded a few months ago. He might be a target for Hahn. He's young and he 's a lefty. something the White Sox don't have in their rotation. Hopefully they will acquire either Odorizzi or Wheeler to help out the starting rotation.  Other than acquiring starting pitching I don't expect a lot of activity from Hahn.

RF needs to be plugged unless you want Cordell, Palka, Engel out there. My guess is Hahn goes after somebody like Puig.

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