A Realistic Offseason

[caulfield12]

The White Sox would have to absorb Turner’s $19 million for 2020 at age 35.  We never take on salaries like that, historically.

So essentially you’re trading an in his prime superstar in Moncada for Lux and Verdugo, who’s a pretty nice player but not a power hitter.  Lux is better suited for 2B than SS, so you’re also giving up a bit on defense there.

At any rate, that means both (Lux/Verdugo) those guys have to succeed.  It’s always risky.   If you look back at those 3 big franchise-altering trades, you’re only winning long-term if two or three of those players make it.  Right now, it’s only Moncada, Giolito and Jimenez, with the jury still out on everyone else.

Most baseball scouts would take May over Lopez at this point, but Lopez probably turns things around in another organization.

 

There’s also breaking up the Cuban Connection synergy and why we even need Abreu and Renteria...just to babysit/mentor Luis Robert?

The Dodgers continue to pile up assets for their “super team”...the White Sox always another 2-3 players away, because the practice of trading guys like Yelich, Gerrit Cole or Moncada from small or mid market teams doesn’t usually work out well.

Edited October 7, 2019 by caulfield12

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

^^^my head would literally explode if that happened 

[Nokona]

42 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

WARNING: Radical idea here.

I mostly got this idea from a Red Sox article:

https://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20191005/radical-strategy-may-be-just-what-sox-need

Granted this guy (named Bill Koch, no less) is smoking crack with some of his ideas, but a more balanced version of the Devers to Dodgers trade is what I want to explore.

Trade Moncada, Lopez, Burdi, Herrera to Dodgers for Turner, Lux, Verdugo, May

Trade Anderson to Dbacks for Zac Gallen and Alek Thomas

Yolmer is traded or non-tendered.

Salary with arb and pre-arb is roughly $60M

Free agency:

Moustakas 3/$45M, Abreu 2/$30M with team option for 3rd, Hamels 1/$13 with team option for 2nd, Hendrick 1/$6, Cishek 2/$12M

Salary is about $115M still having room to play with. If you're a dreamer, Rendon would been a fun add for about $20M AAV more than Moose. But as it stands, this team is ready to compete.

CF Robert

SS Lux (L)

DH Abreu

1B turner

3B Moose (L)

LF Eloy

RF Verdugo (L)

C McCann

2B Madrigal

Bench: Hendrick/Leury/Collins/Mendick

Rotation. Giolito/Hamels/Gallen/Cease/May with Kopech and Rodon as depth pieces

BP: Colome/Bummer/Cishek/Fry/Marshall/Osich/Cordero/Lindgren

Thoughts: Steep price to pay for LAD, and I think Dodgers' rationale for trade for Moncada is their one of the best teams in helping players cut down their K% and improving aprpoach. Moncada could be a top 5 player under their tutelage. They move 3 valuable young pieces in Lux, Verdugo and May, but none of  them has similar upside and is proven like Yoan. Plus I think they're also one of the few teams that could fix ReyLo. For White Sox, moving Moncada is hard, and perhaps irrational, but they get immense value in return and fill holes in RF and SP with MLB ready, cost controlled talent. By moving Yoan and Timmy for younger players, they effective extended their window by a year or two, while remaining competitive in 2020. Verdugo and Gallen are someone I could see RH extending to buy out a few years of their free agency. Lastly, looking ahead to  2021, Turner walks and Vaughn is primed to take over. Sox should has PLENTY of payroll left to land a big fish, e.g. Betts if they still need him.

If you were expecting a realistic offseason plan, that may have been disappointing.

 

 

wat

[SoxAce]

2 minutes ago, Nokona said:

wat

Looks like @thxfrthmmrs has been playing too much MLB the show 19 lately.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

WARNING: Radical idea here.

I mostly got this idea from a Red Sox article:

https://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20191005/radical-strategy-may-be-just-what-sox-need

Granted this guy (named Bill Koch, no less) is smoking crack with some of his ideas, but a more balanced version of the Devers to Dodgers trade is what I want to explore.

Trade Moncada, Lopez, Burdi, Herrera to Dodgers for Turner, Lux, Verdugo, May

Trade Anderson to Dbacks for Zac Gallen and Alek Thomas

Yolmer is traded or non-tendered.

Salary with arb and pre-arb is roughly $60M

Free agency:

Moustakas 3/$45M, Abreu 2/$30M with team option for 3rd, Hamels 1/$13 with team option for 2nd, Hendrick 1/$6, Cishek 2/$12M

Salary is about $115M still having room to play with. If you're a dreamer, Rendon would been a fun add for about $20M AAV more than Moose. But as it stands, this team is ready to compete.

CF Robert

SS Lux (L)

DH Abreu

1B turner

3B Moose (L)

LF Eloy

RF Verdugo (L)

C McCann

2B Madrigal

Bench: Hendrick/Leury/Collins/Mendick

Rotation. Giolito/Hamels/Gallen/Cease/May with Kopech and Rodon as depth pieces

BP: Colome/Bummer/Cishek/Fry/Marshall/Osich/Cordero/Lindgren

Thoughts: Steep price to pay for LAD, and I think Dodgers' rationale for trade for Moncada is their one of the best teams in helping players cut down their K% and improving aprpoach. Moncada could be a top 5 player under their tutelage. They move 3 valuable young pieces in Lux, Verdugo and May, but none of  them has similar upside and is proven like Yoan. Plus I think they're also one of the few teams that could fix ReyLo. For White Sox, moving Moncada is hard, and perhaps irrational, but they get immense value in return and fill holes in RF and SP with MLB ready, cost controlled talent. By moving Yoan and Timmy for younger players, they effective extended their window by a year or two, while remaining competitive in 2020. Verdugo and Gallen are someone I could see RH extending to buy out a few years of their free agency. Lastly, looking ahead to  2021, Turner walks and Vaughn is primed to take over. Sox should has PLENTY of payroll left to land a big fish, e.g. Betts if they still need him.

If you were expecting a realistic offseason plan, that may have been disappointing.

 

 

I stopped reading when I got to the "Trade Moncada" part.  Was the rest of the post decent?

[thxfrthmmrs]

FWIW Lux is current #2 ranked prospect by MLB, Verdugo had a ~2.5-3 WAR rookie season in a little over half season worth of ABs. May is ranked in top 15 by Law, BP and FG. Most importantly, all 3 players are pretty advanced and are primed to take a big step forward in 2020.

It’s a radical idea, maybe even The Show-esque idea, but I would argue that team is going to be better in 2021 than a Moncada led team, when you take into account the likely $50M payroll space you have to work with.

[AJUribe]

Trevor Bauer and Edwin Encarnacion, plus pen.

[3500S]

I cant imagine the Sox would find a potentially MVP caliber talent who has already put up a 5WAR season before age-25 and turn around just to trade him. If they wanted Gavin Lux so bad they would've drafted him (and IIRC they were linked to him).

[soulfly]

45 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I stopped reading when I got to the "Trade Moncada" part.  Was the rest of the post decent?

Was going to post and say the exact same thing.  I'd have to bet we weren't alone.  So many words written that will never be read by another soul...

[thxfrthmmrs]

8 minutes ago, soulfly said:

Was going to post and say the exact same thing.  I'd have to bet we weren't alone.  So many words written that will never be read by another soul...

Apparently you didn’t read the first sentence. Do you read posts that lead with spoilers alert if you don’t want spoilers?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

28 minutes ago, 3500S said:

I cant imagine the Sox would find a potentially MVP caliber talent who has already put up a 5WAR season before age-25 and turn around just to trade him. If they wanted Gavin Lux so bad they would've drafted him (and IIRC they were linked to him).

They were linked to him, and a few of us really wanted him, but that was for pick #26, not #10. Lux went 20th to LAD. 

Jim Callis had Lux mocked to the Sox at #26 in his final mock. 

[Boopa1219]

Why would the Sox even entertain the idea of trading Moncada? Has to be one of the most assets in the game. 

[soulfly]

1 hour ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Apparently you didn’t read the first sentence. Do you read posts that lead with spoilers alert if you don’t want spoilers?

I did.  And like I said, when I read, trade Moncada, I knew the rest of the post was shit and wasn't worth reading.  Sorry.

[poppysox]

9 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Wheeler and Keuchel as the 2 SP additions this offseason would be nice.

1. Giolito 

2. Wheeler

3. Keuchel

4. Cease

5. Lopez

with Kopech and Rodon in the wings.

 

 

Wheeler & Keuchel...that would get the job done for me.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

Why would the Sox even entertain the idea of trading Moncada? Has to be one of the most assets in the game. 

I think it was just a theoretical, for fun “look how much talent we could get for Yoan & Timmy” exercise.  Obviously the Sox aren’t going to do that trade, so no reason to take the post too seriously.

[RTC]

8 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Apparently you didn’t read the first sentence. Do you read posts that lead with spoilers alert if you don’t want spoilers?

You mean like how a few pages back I prefaced my post saying I was just spitballing and you spent several posts telling me why I was being too unrealistic? 

[thxfrthmmrs]

6 hours ago, soulfly said:

I did.  And like I said, when I read, trade Moncada, I knew the rest of the post was shit and wasn't worth reading.  Sorry.

It's a theoretical post, if that didn't register on you then you have missed the point of the post.

And theoretically in 2021, would you rather have Rendon, Betts, Lux, Verdugo, May, Gallen or Moncada, Anderson, Gardner, Grandal, Wheeler and Lopez? With the money we're spending to address holes in RF, DH and 2 SP spots in free agency, we could have been able to afford two Rendon and Betts  type of players for the next 4 years, give them an opt out, and keep core of Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, Cease, Vaughn, plus Lux, Verdugo, May and Gallen till at least 2026. 

[steveno89]

12 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

WARNING: Radical idea here.

I mostly got this idea from a Red Sox article:

https://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20191005/radical-strategy-may-be-just-what-sox-need

Granted this guy (named Bill Koch, no less) is smoking crack with some of his ideas, but a more balanced version of the Devers to Dodgers trade is what I want to explore.

Trade Moncada, Lopez, Burdi, Herrera to Dodgers for Turner, Lux, Verdugo, May

Trade Anderson to Dbacks for Zac Gallen and Alek Thomas

Yolmer is traded or non-tendered.

Salary with arb and pre-arb is roughly $60M

Free agency:

Moustakas 3/$45M, Abreu 2/$30M with team option for 3rd, Hamels 1/$13 with team option for 2nd, Hendrick 1/$6, Cishek 2/$12M

Salary is about $115M still having room to play with. If you're a dreamer, Rendon would been a fun add for about $20M AAV more than Moose. But as it stands, this team is ready to compete.

CF Robert

SS Lux (L)

DH Abreu

1B turner

3B Moose (L)

LF Eloy

RF Verdugo (L)

C McCann

2B Madrigal

Bench: Hendrick/Leury/Collins/Mendick

Rotation. Giolito/Hamels/Gallen/Cease/May with Kopech and Rodon as depth pieces

BP: Colome/Bummer/Cishek/Fry/Marshall/Osich/Cordero/Lindgren

Thoughts: Steep price to pay for LAD, and I think Dodgers' rationale for trade for Moncada is their one of the best teams in helping players cut down their K% and improving aprpoach. Moncada could be a top 5 player under their tutelage. They move 3 valuable young pieces in Lux, Verdugo and May, but none of  them has similar upside and is proven like Yoan. Plus I think they're also one of the few teams that could fix ReyLo. For White Sox, moving Moncada is hard, and perhaps irrational, but they get immense value in return and fill holes in RF and SP with MLB ready, cost controlled talent. By moving Yoan and Timmy for younger players, they effective extended their window by a year or two, while remaining competitive in 2020. Verdugo and Gallen are someone I could see RH extending to buy out a few years of their free agency. Lastly, looking ahead to  2021, Turner walks and Vaughn is primed to take over. Sox should has PLENTY of payroll left to land a big fish, e.g. Betts if they still need him.

If you were expecting a realistic offseason plan, that may have been disappointing.

 

 

Interesting idea, but trading Moncada would be a total non starter for the Sox. I like Lux, Verdugo and May, but the Sox would be taking a huge risk. 

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

11 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Interesting idea, but trading Moncada would be a total non starter for the Sox. I like Lux, Verdugo and May, but the Sox would be taking a huge risk. 

 

I think all prospects present some level of risk but given these 3 has graduated or about to graduate from prospect status, they are about as safe as assets could be, IF, Sox were to entertain the idea of moving Moncada.

It also helps these three guys have a fairly high floor, Lux has shown strong of power/speed/plate discipline as a prospect, Verdugo just put up a 4-6 WAR/162 game season at age 23, depending on which WAR you go with, and May has always profiled as a low risk #2/3 starter, his 32/5 K/BB ratio as a rookie helps illustrate that point.

It’s not hard to project all 3 as having floor of 2 WAR players, and conservative ceiling of 4-6 WAR individually. With modern baseball operations being focused on maximizing surplus value, this will be an idea I’m willing to at least explore.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

14 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I think all prospects present some level of risk but given these 3 has graduated or about to graduate from prospect status, they are about as safe as assets could be, IF, Sox were to entertain the idea of moving Moncada.

It also helps these three guys have a fairly high floor, Lux has shown strong of power/speed/plate discipline as a prospect, Verdugo just put up a 4-6 WAR/162 game season at age 23, depending on which WAR you go with, and May has always profiled as a low risk #2/3 starter, his 32/5 K/BB ratio as a rookie helps illustrate that point.

It’s not hard to project all 3 as having floor of 2 WAR players, and conservative ceiling of 4-6 WAR individually. With modern baseball operations being focused on maximizing surplus value, this will be an idea I’m willing to at least explore.

The perpetual rebuild strategy. 

[daggins]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The perpetual rebuild strategy. 

The thing about perpetual rebuilds is that some teams can actually pull them off (the Rays and A's specifically).

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The perpetual rebuild strategy. 

That wasn’t the full context. By moving Moncada for 3 cost controlled players with high floor and ceiling and address your needs, you free up money to go after a Rendon type. There is a good chance Rendon, Turner, plus those 3 would outWAR Moncada, Lopez plus Wheeler, Grandal, and Gardner in 2020.

[southsideirish71]

9 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

That wasn’t the full context. By moving Moncada for 3 cost controlled players with high floor and ceiling and address your needs, you free up money to go after a Rendon type. There is a good chance Rendon, Turner, plus those 3 would outWAR Moncada, Lopez plus Wheeler, Grandal, and Gardner in 2020.



If at any point this offseason they were to move Moncada for prospects I would be out.  That to me is a Marlins level of sabotage.   Prospects are such a volatile mix.  We finally get a return on a prospect and we want to move him out to get more.  Nope.  Done.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

That wasn’t the full context. By moving Moncada for 3 cost controlled players with high floor and ceiling and address your needs, you free up money to go after a Rendon type. There is a good chance Rendon, Turner, plus those 3 would outWAR Moncada, Lopez plus Wheeler, Grandal, and Gardner in 2020.

I just don't agree with the strategy. You kicked off the rebuild trading an elite asset for 2 top of the line prospects. One of those prospects has now turned himself into a superstar caliber player - that's what you were looking for to kick off your rebuild. By kicking the can further down the road you're simply increasing your risk for no real reason. 

I like outside the box thoughts but this doesnt really belong in the "realistic offseason plans" and I actually don't think an analysis would say its expected outcome is better than the current expected outcome.

You already moved 3 cost controlled top of the line assets to acquire younger, more abundant, assets. So far, it looks like those trades were a success. If you then move those cost controlled assets for even more you're just perpetually rebuilding. 

Its really hard to find stars in baseball; I wouldnt recommend trading them when they are still under control. Rarely in baseball do you get back equal value for stars when traded.

[thxfrthmmrs]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I just don't agree with the strategy. You kicked off the rebuild trading an elite asset for 2 top of the line prospects. One of those prospects has now turned himself into a superstar caliber player - that's what you were looking for to kick off your rebuild. By kicking the can further down the road you're simply increasing your risk for no real reason. 

I like outside the box thoughts but this doesnt really belong in the "realistic offseason plans" and I actually don't think an analysis would say its expected outcome is better than the current expected outcome.

You already moved 3 cost controlled top of the line assets to acquire younger, more abundant, assets. So far, it looks like those trades were a success. If you then move those cost controlled assets for even more you're just perpetually rebuilding. 

Its really hard to find stars in baseball; I wouldnt recommend trading them when they are still under control. Rarely in baseball do you get back equal value for stars when traded.

I don't winning baseball is predicated building around a particular superstar, see Trout, Harper, Machado examples. If at any point you get a deal for a superstar that's going to give you incredible surplus value in return, you have to at least explore it. Unfortunately Moncada took a good 3+ seasons to figure it out and has "only" 4 years of team control left. If your point is Lux, Verdugo, and May are risky assets due to their age (though I'd argue Verdugo is as safe, if not more, as Moncada at this point), then I won't debate, but my personal opinion is, and I have been following these 3 guys close enough, is they're fairly low risk as far as prospects go.