A Realistic Offseason

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not this again... ha, I don't think there are going to be many leaks nor do I think the team is going to build expectations (even internally) as they did last off season. If they learned one lesson, it's to strike in silence and fail in silence.

I should say my buddy wasn't told to be prepared. The sales staff was told to be prepared and then his friend told him. I have no reason not to believe him but also no reason to get my hopes up.

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I should say my buddy wasn't told to be prepared. The sales staff was told to be prepared and then his friend told him. I have no reason not to believe him but also no reason to get my hopes up.

Oh you were being serious. I thought you were doing a satirical telephone thing.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This data is exported from fangraphs; I have a breference export and others as well, but only tied FGraphs into this set.

Here is a graphic of all the pitchers we discussed. The trends are as follows:

37 of the 49 pitchers experience a steady decline following their peak (which on average took place after 987 innings pitched).

There were some exceptions:

1. Scherzer is like fine wine - look at that man's chart! He just keeps getting better and better.

2. AJ Burnett had no real peak - his career was a culmination of 3-4 peaks and valleys not tied to age but possibly injury

3. Buehrle had an earlyish peak, but he remained pretty constant over his career.

4. Cliff Lee struggled mightily early (as most knew) and then steadily increased after 1000 IP.

5. Bumgarner has shown a similar constant to those in the 37 of 49 group; he peaked at about 950 innings, and has been on a decline before this years small spike upward. The question with Bumgarner is will he normalize at his new level, or will his outputs look really similar to the rest o pitchers who continued to trend downward despite a spike in an individual year here and there at the end of their career. 

I'm going to put Odorizzi, Wheeler and Bumgarner side by side to look at and I'll build a quick projection based on the expected decrease post 987 innings to see where there WAR could sit the next 4-5 years.

https://ibb.co/C9PtJz7

You'll have to click on the link to the picture above because it is too large to attach to this file. 

I noticed my link did not work on my phone, so I re-uploaded it to imgur:

 

[Eminor3rd]

12 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

My buddy says he got a text from another friend who works in sales for the team saying that they were told to be prepared for Gerritt Cole.....pretty sure they were told the same about Machado though.

But again, take that for what it's worth.

As someone who works on the business side of this industry, it’s really hard to believe that this would ever happen. 

I don’t want to put anything past the White Sox, but this would simply never occur in any place that I’ve been. 

[SoxBlanco]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Oh you were being serious. I thought you were doing a satirical telephone thing.

Haha, I thought the same thing. I was 99% sure he was kidding. 

[BackDoorBreach]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

If we signed cole the implication being you should take advantage of as much of his contract as possible and max out the budget this year right?

I still just don't like so much of the position players. I'd be okay if we loaded up on pitching though with a high end guy and multiple depth plays.

Yeah, you don't get a guy like that in his peak prime to fuck around with lesser talent.

I don't like the OF's either but you add in a JDM and Castellanos' bat this offense is going to hum.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

As someone who works on the business side of this industry, it’s really hard to believe that this would ever happen. 

I don’t want to put anything past the White Sox, but this would simply never occur in any place that I’ve been. 

How would one prepare anyway?

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

How would one prepare anyway?

Possible marketing materials, etc

[bmags]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Possible marketing materials, etc

dude come on, it takes 10 minutes to photoshop these guys and the press releases aren't chaucer. They have weeks before they'd need anything particularly time-intensive.

[Bob Sacamano]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

How would one prepare anyway?

Maybe more figuratively than literally? Who knows. Like I said, I would figure they would be in on him anyway so this doesn't really change anything. Still have to get him to sign.

[thxfrthmmrs]

If I am Cole I wouldn't want to come here TBH. He has had so much success from Astro's continuous feedback through data analytics, coming here would be 2 steps backward for him. If Astros can't afford him, he'd likely go elsewhere where they have similar technology and emphasis in place.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If I am Cole I wouldn't want to come here TBH. He has had so much success from Astro's continuous feedback through data analytics, coming here would be 2 steps backward for him. If Astros can't afford him, he'd likely go elsewhere where they have similar technology and emphasis in place.

I read a week or so ago that the Astros prefer not to go over the luxury tax threshold but also read earlier this week that if they did, at whatever projected salary they had Cole and arbitration guys at, they would only owe like $4 mill extra.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If I am Cole I wouldn't want to come here TBH. He has had so much success from Astro's continuous feedback through data analytics, coming here would be 2 steps backward for him. If Astros can't afford him, he'd likely go elsewhere where they have similar technology and emphasis in place.

This is working off some assumption that Cole requires frequent changes to remain where he is - which just isn't true. His pitch distribution changed a lot when he first got to Houston  but has remained constant since. His release point has remained constant as well. It's not as if he is making constant changes game to game, or even year to year in houston.

He'll go where the most money as every free agent does.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I read a week or so ago that the Astros prefer not to go over the luxury tax threshold but also read earlier this week that if they did, at whatever projected salary they had Cole and arbitration guys at, they would only owe like $4 mill extra.

Astros owner hinted that the only way they'd keep Cole is if they won the World Series and got that WS revenue. Who knows how true that is.

[thxfrthmmrs]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is working off some assumption that Cole requires frequent changes to remain where he is - which just isn't true. His pitch distribution changed a lot when he first got to Houston  but has remained constant since. His release point has remained constant as well. It's not as if he is making constant changes game to game, or even year to year in houston.

He'll go where the most money as every free agent does.

I don't have the specific details but I remember a Ringer article mentioning the specifics of how Astros individualizes pitching development to many of their pitchers, providing videos, heat map, recommendations, etc. and a lot of the content is made available to pitchers after their start.

Obviously he will go where the most money is, but if money is similar then it's a different story.

Edit: this is what I was referring to. This may not suggest pitchers use the resources after each outing to make adjustments, but it's certainly helpful when they're struggling and he could pinpoint exactly what the issues are.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting

The Astros’ new toys gave them PD powers they previously hadn’t possessed. By 2017, the Astros were establishing clear, individually tailored goals for their pitchers in spring training and giving them feedback based on TrackMan data after every outing, with portable and mounted Edgertronics—seven of which the Astros have installed at Minute Maid Park, with seven more at each minor-league park in their system—available for more detailed looks.

Edited October 8, 2019 by thxfrthmmrs

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I don't have the specific details but I remember a Ringer article mentioning the specifics of how Astros individualizes pitching development to many of their pitchers, providing videos, heat map, recommendations, etc. and a lot of the content is made available to pitchers after their start.

Obviously he will go where the most money is, but if money is similar then it's a different story.

Yes, they do individualize their pitching reports but Cole has learned what he needs to learn.

Similarly to how a company may pay to teach you a new code language, and that's very valuable to your career but you dont need to stay with that company to retain the information.

Cole has attacked hitters the same way since he got to Houston. 

Sometimes I think we give too much credit to analytics and not enough credit to the players skill set. Houston taught gerrit Cole how to maximize his skill set - that should be something he can take with him everywhere. Just my opinion.

[fathom]

What’s going to be the SoxFest surprise this year!!!!!!!

[Flash]

Sign Grandal and Wheeler and deal for someone like Ian Happ (can play anywhere and SH). 

 

[BackDoorBreach]

27 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If I am Cole I wouldn't want to come here TBH. He has had so much success from Astro's continuous feedback through data analytics, coming here would be 2 steps backward for him. If Astros can't afford him, he'd likely go elsewhere where they have similar technology and emphasis in place.

They already fixed him.  Look at Charlie Morton.

[thxfrthmmrs]

8 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

They already fixed him.  Look at Charlie Morton.

You mean the organization that turned Avi into a useful player?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fansided.com/2019/06/06/mlb-charlie-morton-rays-cy-young/amp/

This doesn’t go into the specifics of what their development plan is, but you get the idea.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, Flash said:

Sign Grandal and Wheeler and deal for someone like Ian Happ (can play anywhere and SH). 

 

Grandal + Wheeler would be a fantastic start.  Trade for Nimmo and sign a backend lefty option and I would be tickled with that offseason.  

[Big Hurtin]

20 minutes ago, fathom said:

What’s going to be the SoxFest surprise this year!!!!!!!

Brett Gardner

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

27 minutes ago, fathom said:

What’s going to be the SoxFest surprise this year!!!!!!!

Felix Hernandez

[Middle Buffalo]

47 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If I am Cole I wouldn't want to come here TBH. 

This is how I feel, too.

If last off-season had produced either of Harper or Machado, and the young core showed what it did this season, I could almost see a top pitcher signing with the Sox. Without that building  block, I don’t see  Cole signing with the Sox. 

I don’t see the Sox signing the elite guys at this point, so I’m hoping for two of the pitchers not named Cole or Strasburg and a RF.

[BackDoorBreach]

I think there's a lot of people here stuck in a Sox echo chamber of despair.  If you go on other baseball websites/message boards the Sox are almost a consensus pick along with SD to be one of the next great teams.  If rival fans are seeing it so are the players.  All Jerry has to do is open the pocket book, this isn't the Cleveland Browns.