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A Realistic Offseason


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5 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Which is why I said signing Grandal isn't necessarily disappointing vs. signing a big name like JDM. I think Grandal is a better fit all things considered.

Again, I don't personally think that offseason would be disappointing.  But we both know some here would. Not sure why that is what you're choosing to focus on in the post.  

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JDM is a great hitter.  The two biggest downfalls I see with him is it pretty much forces you to play Abreu at first a lot.  Secondly, what do you do in interleague play as JDM glove is not at all good? 

I worry about Ozuna's glove in RF and the fact it will take a multi year commitment.

I thought about Jose but same issues for JDM come into play for Jose.

 

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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Again, I don't personally think that offseason would be disappointing.  But we both know some here would. Not sure why that is what you're choosing to focus on in the post.  

Because there isn’t anyone else who is  better than Wheeler and Grandal who is realistically available other than Cole. One of Renson and Stras will resign, if not both, I don’t consider Bum a better signing than a wheeler and Grandal is a better fit than JDM, I don’t mind either for the record. Anyone who is disappointed by the signing of those two needs to readjust their expectations.

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4 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Because there isn’t anyone else who is  better than Wheeler and Grandal who is realistically available other than Cole. One of Renson and Stras will resign, if not both, I don’t consider Bum a better signing than a wheeler and Grandal is a better fit than JDM, I don’t mind either for the record. Anyone who is disappointed by the signing of those two needs to readjust their expectations.

I do believe they really could use a veteran leader, and Bumgarner's about as respected as anyone in the game...at least in certain circles.

Does anyone know anything about Wheeler's character/personality?  

Is he willing to be a mentor to younger pitchers...like a Mark Buehrle?  Or is he more like AJ, looking at every younger player as someone who might take his job away someday?

Having a Keuchel or Bumgarner has a set of intrinsic rewards, above and beyond their actual on-field performance level.  And it's not like they are in the last years of their career, like Jimmy Rollins or Vizquel when we brought them in. 

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8 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Hahn likes to made trades.  RF is the natural place for a trade.  I expect that is where we'll get our RF.  

A trade would most likely get us a better right fielder than the free agent options, but would a guy we could get via trade be so much better than a stop gap RF free agent that it would push us to a World Series? And if the answer is no (which is almost certainly is), then why waste any prospects at this point in time? Just sign a guy to a one year deal and see if any of our OF prospects can be our right fielder in 2021. If they can’t, then maybe there is a better RF free agent option next offseason. And if that doesn’t work, then make a trade next offseason. I just don’t see any benefit of a trade right now. 

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

I do believe they really could use a veteran leader, and Bumgarner's about as respected as anyone in the game...at least in certain circles.

Does anyone know anything about Wheeler's character/personality?  

Is he willing to be a mentor to younger pitchers...like a Mark Buehrle?  Or is he more like AJ, looking at every younger player as someone who might take his job away someday?

Having a Keuchel or Bumgarner has a set of intrinsic rewards, above and beyond their actual on-field performance level.  And it's not like they are in the last years of their career, like Jimmy Rollins or Vizquel when we brought them in. 

If I'm spending $100M+ on a pitcher, I am spending it on the best one available. We could target for veteran stability in the 2nd SP signing.

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12 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If I'm spending $100M+ on a pitcher, I am spending it on the best one available. We could target for veteran stability in the 2nd SP signing.

There's a problem, "best stuff" would go to Wheeler hands down, just like going after Cole a couple of years ago when he was on the Pirates.

As we all know, that doesn't necessarily translate into results, so we're left assessing potential/ability vs actual performance levels and advanced stats.

Then we're having to project those NL numbers into the AL Central.

Nobody knows.  We're not paid to.

Is Wheeler for 4/5 years and $75-100 million a better choice than Odorizzi at less years and money?

Well, we also have to consider what type of pitcher/s work best with a Don Cooper old school style of coaching...and which would prefer to be in the modern world of Driveline/AI-assisted mechanical analysis?

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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

There's a problem, "best stuff" would go to Wheeler hands down, just like going after Cole a couple of years ago when he was on the Pirates.

As we all know, that doesn't necessarily translate into results, so we're left assessing potential/ability vs actual performance levels and advanced stats.

Then we're having to project those NL numbers into the AL Central.

Nobody knows.  We're not paid to.

Is Wheeler for 4/5 years and $75-100 million a better choice than Odorizzi at less years and money?

Well, we also have to consider what type of pitcher/s work best with a Don Cooper old school style of coaching...and which would prefer to be in the modern world of Driveline/AI-assisted mechanical analysis?

I think many of us are over thinking this. We all have our preferences among the Free Agents. The main thing  the Sox have to do is take action using some of the guys we all think could propel the Sox to a 20 game improvement and hope most of the moves work while young guys get better. If Kopech , Lopez, Cease, Robert, Madrigal, Moncada, Anderson, Collins, Jimenez ,Giolito and minor league pieces don't become who we hope then no amount of free agents is going to matter. That's 10 main core pieces ,4 of which showed their talent in 2019 with the Sox. If 4 of the remaining 6 shine ,things get a lot better.  Then maybe  one of Vaughn , Rodon and Dunning steps up. Then there's the minor league OF's who are at least at AA Basabe, Adolfo .Rutherford. Gonzalez one of them becoming good would be great since they all seem to be decent fielders. Would be nice to get a boost amongst the, Hansen, Burdi, Mercedes,Sheets. Hamilton, Johnson group too which I think covers just about everybody who is considered not that far from the majors.

If by 2021 we aren't getting the results from the young core it's going to be a bumpy ride ahead.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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One factor in who we sign is whether Hahn has a budget going in. If the Sox payroll in 2019 was about $80 Mil( I know different sources have different amounts) thne I would assume Hahn is going in with something like a 25%, 50% or 100% increase.  I think that number will determine where he spends. For example, if he has another $80 to add,  then Grandal would be a target. If he has $20 Mil( plus players leaving) then I would think they will spend it elsewhere. My guess is the number will be around $120 Mil. I would think his first move is a SP since that may very well be his costliest add. 

I would guess, Grandal is probably going for at least  4/$72

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46 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

One factor in who we sign is whether Hahn has a budget going in. If the Sox payroll in 2019 was about $80 Mil( I know different sources have different amounts) thne I would assume Hahn is going in with something like a 25%, 50% or 100% increase.  I think that number will determine where he spends. For example, if he has another $80 to add,  then Grandal would be a target. If he has $20 Mil( plus players leaving) then I would think they will spend it elsewhere. My guess is the number will be around $120 Mil. I would think his first move is a SP since that may very well be his costliest add. 

I would guess, Grandal is probably going for at least  4/$72

80 million additional still doesn't put us in the top third of MLB payrolls.  I'm not complaining...just saying the money should be there to accomplish what is needed.  Wheeler and Grandal are my primary wish list candidates.  Both fit exactly what we need for obvious reasons.

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Like most Sox fans, I am hoping for an active offseason. Yet, I don't have big expectations. I am sure the FO will do something, but I don't know on what scale. I find the speculation on this thread interesting, but I am in a wait and see mode. I fear, that in a relative sense, the team will do little.

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16 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

Like most Sox fans, I am hoping for an active offseason. Yet, I don't have big expectations. I am sure the FO will do something, but I don't know on what scale. I find the speculation on this thread interesting, but I am in a wait and see mode. I fear, that in a relative sense, the team will do little.

I think the White Sox understand the importance of this off-season. 

They talked a big game last year and came up short - destroying their PR even further and alienating their fanbase. They have been relatively quiet with this offseason approaching and I would consider that good news; they appear to have learned from their mistake.

They said the "money will be spent" and I think they understand the importance of meeting expectations this time around. Time will tell.

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Arbitration:
2B Yolmer Sanchez - Non Tender
CF Leury Garcia - Tender (4 million)
SP Carlos Rodon - Tender (4.5 million)
C James McCann - Tender (4.9 million)
RP Evan Marshall - Tender (1.3 million)
RP Josh Osich - Non Tender
2B Ryan Goins - Non Tender
RP Alex Colome - Tender (10.3 million)
Total: 25 million + the 14.5 million already committed

Resign:
1B Jose Abreu 2 years/30 million (15/year) option for year 3
Total: 15 million + 25 million +14.5 million
Total: 54.5 million

Free Agents:
DH J.D Martinez 4 years/90 million (22.5/year)
C Yasmani Grandal 4 years/77 million (19.25/year)
SP Zack Wheeler 4 years/85 million (21.25/year)
RF Kole Calhoun 1 year/12 million (12/year)
RP Collin McHugh 2 years/11 million (5.5/year)
RP Will Smith 3 years/26 million (8.67/year)
SP Alex Wood 1 year/10 million (10/year)
Total: 77.92 million + 54.5 million
Total: 153.67 million

Lineup:
2B Madrigal
CF Robert
3B Moncada
DH Martinez
LF Jimenez
C Grandal
1B Abreu
RF Calhoun
SS Anderson

Rotation:
SP Giolito
SP Wheeler
SP Cease
SP Wood
SP Lopez
Kopech, Rodon, Dunning, and Lambert waiting in the wings coming back from injury

Bullpen:
RP McHugh
RP Marshall
RP Fry
RP Cordero
RP Bummer
RP Herrera
RP Smith
RP Colome

Thoughts?

 


 

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4 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Arbitration:
2B Yolmer Sanchez - Non Tender
CF Leury Garcia - Tender (4 million)
SP Carlos Rodon - Tender (4.5 million)
C James McCann - Tender (4.9 million)
RP Evan Marshall - Tender (1.3 million)
RP Josh Osich - Non Tender
2B Ryan Goins - Non Tender
RP Alex Colome - Tender (10.3 million)
Total: 25 million + the 14.5 million already committed

Resign:
1B Jose Abreu 2 years/30 million (15/year) option for year 3
Total: 15 million + 25 million +14.5 million
Total: 54.5 million

Free Agents:
DH J.D Martinez 4 years/90 million (22.5/year)
C Yasmani Grandal 4 years/77 million (19.25/year)
SP Zack Wheeler 4 years/85 million (21.25/year)
RF Kole Calhoun 1 year/12 million (12/year)
RP Collin McHugh 2 years/11 million (5.5/year)
RP Will Smith 3 years/26 million (8.67/year)
SP Alex Wood 1 year/10 million (10/year)
Total: 77.92 million + 54.5 million
Total: 153.67 million

Lineup:
2B Madrigal
CF Robert
3B Moncada
DH Martinez
LF Jimenez
C Grandal
1B Abreu
RF Calhoun
SS Anderson

Rotation:
SP Giolito
SP Wheeler
SP Cease
SP Wood
SP Lopez
Kopech, Rodon, Dunning, and Lambert waiting in the wings coming back from injury

Bullpen:
RP McHugh
RP Marshall
RP Fry
RP Cordero
RP Bummer
RP Herrera
RP Smith
RP Colome

Thoughts?

 


 

Looks reasonable to me.  Their payroll should hopefully be around 140-150 million after this off season.  I don't know what our long term solution in RF is going to be though.

If they go stop gap I think Calhoun is fine, just not a sexy aquisition.  I am hoping they trade for a RF if they don't sign Castellanos.

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17 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I think you'd also have to factor in the pre-arb cost, which is probably around $8M for 10-11 players

Committed Salary $15.3M (3 players) + Arb cost $25M (5 players) + Abreu ~$15M + pre-arb cost $8M (10-11 players)

That gets us around $68M for 19-20 players, and leaves us ~60M for 6-7 players in FA.

BTW pre-arb guys I have as likely 2020 players: Moncada, Gio, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Collins, Mendick, Fry, Bummer.

I made an update to include that. FWIW I have 8 mill for pre-arb, 15.8 for existing salaries, 16 for Abreu and 25 million for tendered and that gives me 64.8.

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22 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Arbitration:
2B Yolmer Sanchez - Non Tender
CF Leury Garcia - Tender (4 million)
SP Carlos Rodon - Tender (4.5 million)
C James McCann - Tender (4.9 million)
RP Evan Marshall - Tender (1.3 million)
RP Josh Osich - Non Tender
2B Ryan Goins - Non Tender
RP Alex Colome - Tender (10.3 million)
Total: 25 million + the 14.5 million already committed

Resign:
1B Jose Abreu 2 years/30 million (15/year) option for year 3
Total: 15 million + 25 million +14.5 million
Total: 54.5 million

Free Agents:
DH J.D Martinez 4 years/90 million (22.5/year)
C Yasmani Grandal 4 years/77 million (19.25/year)
SP Zack Wheeler 4 years/85 million (21.25/year)
RF Kole Calhoun 1 year/12 million (12/year)
RP Collin McHugh 2 years/11 million (5.5/year)
RP Will Smith 3 years/26 million (8.67/year)
SP Alex Wood 1 year/10 million (10/year)
Total: 77.92 million + 54.5 million
Total: 153.67 million

Lineup:
2B Madrigal
CF Robert
3B Moncada
DH Martinez
LF Jimenez
C Grandal
1B Abreu
RF Calhoun
SS Anderson

Rotation:
SP Giolito
SP Wheeler
SP Cease
SP Wood
SP Lopez
Kopech, Rodon, Dunning, and Lambert waiting in the wings coming back from injury

Bullpen:
RP McHugh
RP Marshall
RP Fry
RP Cordero
RP Bummer
RP Herrera
RP Smith
RP Colome

Thoughts?

 


 

Holy shit are you going to disappointed.  

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31 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Arbitration:
2B Yolmer Sanchez - Non Tender
CF Leury Garcia - Tender (4 million)
SP Carlos Rodon - Tender (4.5 million)
C James McCann - Tender (4.9 million)
RP Evan Marshall - Tender (1.3 million)
RP Josh Osich - Non Tender
2B Ryan Goins - Non Tender
RP Alex Colome - Tender (10.3 million)
Total: 25 million + the 14.5 million already committed

Resign:
1B Jose Abreu 2 years/30 million (15/year) option for year 3
Total: 15 million + 25 million +14.5 million
Total: 54.5 million

Free Agents:
DH J.D Martinez 4 years/90 million (22.5/year)
C Yasmani Grandal 4 years/77 million (19.25/year)
SP Zack Wheeler 4 years/85 million (21.25/year)
RF Kole Calhoun 1 year/12 million (12/year)
RP Collin McHugh 2 years/11 million (5.5/year)
RP Will Smith 3 years/26 million (8.67/year)
SP Alex Wood 1 year/10 million (10/year)
Total: 77.92 million + 54.5 million
Total: 153.67 million

Lineup:
2B Madrigal
CF Robert
3B Moncada
DH Martinez
LF Jimenez
C Grandal
1B Abreu
RF Calhoun
SS Anderson

Rotation:
SP Giolito
SP Wheeler
SP Cease
SP Wood
SP Lopez
Kopech, Rodon, Dunning, and Lambert waiting in the wings coming back from injury

Bullpen:
RP McHugh
RP Marshall
RP Fry
RP Cordero
RP Bummer
RP Herrera
RP Smith
RP Colome

Thoughts?

 


 

This is basically everything going right and us signing ALL of the big names outside the big 3 (Cole, Stras, Rendon).  Sadly won't happen

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I am honestly SOOOO baffled by the overwhelming support of Grandal >>>> JD Martinez.  It really doesn't make a ton of sense to me.  Literally a top 3 hitter in the game.  I understand Grandal is a good hitter and defender. But my lord, what catchers actually catch into their mid-30s and are successful?  Certainly not many, if any.  Plus many of you want to sign Grandal to DH him 2-3 times a week to get McCann in the lineup.... Isn't that what JD would do but on a far higher scale.  LH vs RH batter matters if the hitters are close to the same scale.. But they are't even in the same stratosphere. I simply don't get it.

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24 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

I am honestly SOOOO baffled by the overwhelming support of Grandal >>>> JD Martinez.  It really doesn't make a ton of sense to me.  Literally a top 3 hitter in the game.  I understand Grandal is a good hitter and defender. But my lord, what catchers actually catch into their mid-30s and are successful?  Certainly not many, if any.  Plus many of you want to sign Grandal to DH him 2-3 times a week to get McCann in the lineup.... Isn't that what JD would do but on a far higher scale.  LH vs RH batter matters if the hitters are close to the same scale.. But they are't even in the same stratosphere. I simply don't get it.

Last year JD Martinez was literally the 16th best hitter in the game by wRC+, not top 3. The 15th best was someone named Moncada.

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28 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

I actually think those contracts will be pretty accurate.  He may be a tad low on McHugh but a tad high on Wood.

 

I disagree. I know he was ineffective after injury, but I was surprised how much even pitchers with TJ were getting in offseason - and he's only 28 and had a history of effectiveness. 

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