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A Realistic Offseason

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2 hours ago, SCCWS said:

Rumor is Holt to Arizona for $8Mil/2 yrs.  

He can get more than that . That's barely higher than his salary last year. I don't get expect anyone to sign this early while barely getting a raise during free agency after he had a good year when he can play so many positions competently. I know he had injuries last year but he should be able to get $5M a year for 2 years minimum.

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2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He can get more than that . That's barely higher than his salary last year. I don't get expect anyone to sign this early while barely getting a raise during free agency after he had a good year when he can play so many positions competently. I know he had injuries last year but he should be able to get $5M a year for 2 years minimum.

He got $3.5 Mil for one year in his last contract. He has had 2 pretty good years in a row actually. Supposedly loves Boston but sounds like he may want 2 years versus 1.  

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3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

But you're only considering 1 season in the case you just gave, and yet the guys being signed are for 3 or 4 year deals. So yes, guys are coming back from injury and young...but you also don't want to lock up that much money on 2 starters for multiple years when you do have that many guys who can take the ball. 

So yeah, my setup may not be as good as yours next year (bring in stras and there's a good chance that it is), but my setup is playing the long game. 

But I think I am also playing the long game.  Among Kopech, Cease, Lopez and Dunning we can realistically hope 2 of them are good enough to be a No.1 through 3 starting pitcher for years to come. By signing Wheeler and Ryu it gives them time, be it next year, 2021 or 2022 ,to become what we hope . Ryu has been projected by fangraphs to get only a 2 year contract but I can see him getting 3 years so he might not be as expensive as you think. In the event that none of them become a 1 or 2 type you still have a top 3 of Wheeler, Gio and Ryu. If they do become everything we hope any excess can be traded.

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22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But I think I am also playing the long game.  Among Kopech, Cease, Lopez and Dunning we can realistically hope 2 of them are good enough to be a No.1 through 3 starting pitcher for years to come. By signing Wheeler and Ryu it gives them time, be it next year, 2021 or 2022 ,to become what we hope . Ryu has been projected by fangraphs to get only a 2 year contract but I can see him getting 3 years so he might not be as expensive as you think. In the event that none of them become a 1 or 2 type you still have a top 3 of Wheeler, Gio and Ryu. If they do become everything we hope any excess can be traded.

I don't see Ryu as an option if they sign Wheeler at all.  They aren't going to have a 6 man rotation.

 

It makes much more sense to try and get a multiyear SP and another on a 1 year.

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They gotta move fast if this is offseason is going to be a success. There will be no "bargains". Guys are going to go quick while Rendon/Cole/Strasburg negotiations are happening. Would love to see them pounce on a couple guys this week. B E A G G R E S S I V E !

Edited by Pal

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1 hour ago, soxfan49 said:

 

Well this was a lot quicker than I expected anyone to get signed

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1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I don't see Ryu as an option if they sign Wheeler at all.  They aren't going to have a 6 man rotation.

 

It makes much more sense to try and get a multiyear SP and another on a 1 year.

Yes they won't have a 6 man rotation but what if Kopech starts in the minors for however long it takes him to get his stuff back then can't pitch at the end of the season because of an innings limit  and the Sox are contending ? What if Cease gets sent back down because he's ineffective and he too might not be ready to pitch in the post season and all the innings that would involve. What if one of the top 5 get injured fora long stretch ? To me it's just common sense that with only 1 quality starter added that the rest are a lot of big ifs. Those big ifs can be given time to develop with adding 2 quality pitchers. I don't think the Sox can make the playoffs counting on Kopech, Cease and Lopez , not yet anyway, unless one of them becomes a stud this year .

When we talk about being able to compete next year the biggest question marks are in the starting pitching,  I think the lineup and bullpen can be upgraded for minimal dollars with a few minor but quality additions like Dickerson and Holt  plus  Robert and Madrigal and a big year from Eloy and Moncada.. The Sox aren't going to be able to fix every hole and since pitching is the most obvious need in order to contend it should get the most money thrown at it.

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21 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yes they won't have a 6 man rotation but what if Kopech starts in the minors for however long it takes him to get his stuff back then can't pitch at the end of the season because of an innings limit  and the Sox are contending ? What if Cease gets sent back down because he's ineffective and he too might not be ready to pitch in the post season and all the innings that would involve. What if one of the top 5 get injured fora long stretch ? To me it's just common sense that with only 1 quality starter added that the rest are a lot of big ifs. Those big ifs can be given time to develop with adding 2 quality pitchers. I don't think the Sox can make the playoffs counting on Kopech, Cease and Lopez , not yet anyway, unless one of them becomes a stud this year .

When we talk about being able to compete next year the biggest question marks are in the starting pitching,  I think the lineup and bullpen can be upgraded for minimal dollars with a few minor but quality additions like Dickerson and Holt  plus  Robert and Madrigal and a big year from Eloy and Moncada.. The Sox aren't going to be able to fix every hole and since pitching is the most obvious need in order to contend it should get the most money thrown at it.

You are for giving Ryu and Wheeler deals, which would be multi-year.  2020 it makes sense to sign 2 SP because of Kopech.

2021 it doesn't make sense because WHAT IF your rotation is Wheeler, Gio, Ryu, Cease, Kopech, Lopez and add in Rodon?

That's 7 SP.  WHAT IF we are assuming none of those guys have to get TJ or blow their shoulder out?  It's a waste of money.  They should not be persuing more than 1 multi-year SP this off season.

If somebody blows their arm out you can address that offseason going into 2021.

 

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If WS sign Cole the second pitcher could be a Nova type...  If we sign Wheeler than the second pitcher needs to be something like Ryu...If we sign Wheeler and Cole then becomes available you now have Lopez or someone else for trade ammo.  I'm saying get pitching and don't worry about it.  The better pitching you have the more ammo you have.  

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3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

If WS sign Cole the second pitcher could be a Nova type...  If we sign Wheeler than the second pitcher needs to be something like Ryu...If we sign Wheeler and Cole then becomes available you now have Lopez or someone else for trade ammo.  I'm saying get pitching and don't worry about it.  The better pitching you have the more ammo you have.  

Yes, pitching is extremely important.  But unless you are trading Lopez this year there is no logic that says sign 2 multi-year SP.

They will have 6 starting SP on the roster in the first half, 4 needing growth and 2 making money, and 7 after the ASB if Rodon doesn't go to the pen which would hurt his diminished value more.

2021 it would be the same story unless we trade SP assets.

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54 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

You are for giving Ryu and Wheeler deals, which would be multi-year.  2020 it makes sense to sign 2 SP because of Kopech.

2021 it doesn't make sense because WHAT IF your rotation is Wheeler, Gio, Ryu, Cease, Kopech, Lopez and add in Rodon?

That's 7 SP.  WHAT IF we are assuming none of those guys have to get TJ or blow their shoulder out?  It's a waste of money.  They should not be persuing more than 1 multi-year SP this off season.

If somebody blows their arm out you can address that offseason going into 2021.

 

Yah, its pretty simple.  One multi-year SP, one backend guy on 1 year deal.

Which is why the one multi-year SP needs to be Wheeler or Ryu and not Keuchel or Hamels.

Sox don't need to spend the money necessary to sign 2 SP to longer term  deals.  Allocate elsewhere.  

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1 hour ago, poppysox said:

If WS sign Cole the second pitcher could be a Nova type...  If we sign Wheeler than the second pitcher needs to be something like Ryu...If we sign Wheeler and Cole then becomes available you now have Lopez or someone else for trade ammo.  I'm saying get pitching and don't worry about it.  The better pitching you have the more ammo you have.  

There's just no possible way the White Sox spend the type of money that it would require to get 2 of the top 4-5 starters on the market.

At this point, just hoping for Wheeler is enough...because MOST aren't going to be satisfied with Bumgarner/Ryu/Keuchel/Hamels as the "BIG MOVE" out of Hahn.  

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1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

You are for giving Ryu and Wheeler deals, which would be multi-year.  2020 it makes sense to sign 2 SP because of Kopech.

2021 it doesn't make sense because WHAT IF your rotation is Wheeler, Gio, Ryu, Cease, Kopech, Lopez and add in Rodon?

That's 7 SP.  WHAT IF we are assuming none of those guys have to get TJ or blow their shoulder out?  It's a waste of money.  They should not be persuing more than 1 multi-year SP this off season.

If somebody blows their arm out you can address that offseason going into 2021.

 

You can never have enough starting pitching.I think we saw an example of that in that famous thread that asked if we had too much pitching.  If you want to win a World Series you need 3 studs. The less choices or options you have to choose among those potential studs just limits your options. Ryu might not require a deal longer than 3 years. That's very doable for a Cy Young type candidate. Rodon isn't an option beyond 2021 so he's not really a long term option.

You have to assume at least one injury . Not having any starting pitcher get injured isn't very likely and as I said before Kopech Cease Lopez and Dunning all of them have a long way to go to become good reliable starting pitchers. My way only Lopez is a casualty but will get plenty of starts if Kopech and Cease spend time back in the minors which is also likely especially for Kopech and his innings limit. Otherwise Cease is your number 4 and Kopech your 5 to help limit his innings.

If someone blows their arm or sucks ,which always seems to happen , why wait to 2021 to fix it when you can have the depth this year to combat the problems associated with injuries and very young untested pitchers. 2020 just becomes another year of waiting for the rebuild to work and wasting core position players years.

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8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

There's just no possible way the White Sox spend the type of money that it would require to get 2 of the top 4-5 starters on the market.

At this point, just hoping for Wheeler is enough...because MOST aren't going to be satisfied with Bumgarner/Ryu/Keuchel/Hamels as the "BIG MOVE" out of Hahn.  

The primary difference between us is I have been publicly stating my belief that our budget will be 160+.  The vast majority of posters have suggest that 120 is their guess.  Like a kid at Christmas...I'm dreaming of some really nice toys.  Most of you are thinking one pretty nice toy and some underwear  and a bathrobe.  We shall see.

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12 minutes ago, poppysox said:

The primary difference between us is I have been publicly stating my belief that our budget will be 160+.  The vast majority of posters have suggest that 120 is their guess.  Like a kid at Christmas...I'm dreaming of some really nice toys.  Most of you are thinking one pretty nice toy and some underwear  and a bathrobe.  We shall see.

Unless you think the Sox plan to flirt with the luxury tax on 2022-2025, there is zero percent chance the OD payroll is north of $150M. To do what you’re proposing in one offseason is just simply not feasible. 

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59 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, its pretty simple.  One multi-year SP, one backend guy on 1 year deal.

Which is why the one multi-year SP needs to be Wheeler or Ryu and not Keuchel or Hamels.

Sox don't need to spend the money necessary to sign 2 SP to longer term  deals.  Allocate elsewhere.  

If Wheeler can be had for 4 or 5 years and Ryu 2 or 3 that isn't crippling from a payroll standpoint. The point is we need to trust that the lineup will produce much better than last year with some minimal  but inexpensive quality stopgaps I trust the Robert and Madrigal to be good next year more than I trust or believe that Kopech, Cease or Lopez become good next year. That's my main reason for wanting more pitching and the fact that you can go deeper in the playoff with a solid rotation more than a solid lineup. I don't think it's possible to upgrade both a lot. Concessions to payroll have to be made somewhere so I made them in the lineup'

Maybe someone should do a poll and see what the rest of the posters think about who could be a breakout type player in 2020. List Robert , Madrigal,  Collins, Lopez, Cease and Kopech or even Mercedes Give people the choice to list them  as 1st choice 2nd choice and third choice.

Robert probably easily wins that poll but the 2nd, 3rd and 4th guys will be interesting. Maybe the poll shouldn't say breakout but instead say above league average or something along those lines.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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