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A Realistic Offseason

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Get Wheeler done. Grab Betances. Trade for Marte or Mancini or Haniger. OR sign Gardner or Dickerson or Calhoun. Would be an outstanding offseason...with the Abreu and Grandal deals and cutting Yolmer, the teams sits around $80 mill in salary at the moment, correct?

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5 minutes ago, Pal said:

Get Wheeler done. Grab Betances. Trade for Marte or Mancini or Haniger. OR sign Gardner or Dickerson or Calhoun. Would be an outstanding offseason...with the Abreu and Grandal deals and cutting Yolmer, the teams sits around $80 mill in salary at the moment, correct?

Your fingers, baseball God’s hand.

 

I believe 86m was a number I recently heard.

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9 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Your fingers, baseball God’s hand.

 

I believe 86m was a number I recently heard.

Ok thanks. Another $34 mill should be spent. $44 mill even.

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I think as we stand today without Yolmer, the correct figure is somewhere in the $81-83 range including arb eligible players. 
 

Should be plenty left to spend. $40M of it will be two SP and RF, if I had to guess. The rest will be on the cheap. 

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7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think as we stand today without Yolmer, the correct figure is somewhere in the $81-83 range including arb eligible players. 
 

Should be plenty left to spend. $40M of it will be two SP and RF, if I had to guess. The rest will be on the cheap. 

Lots to look forward to... at a snails pace.

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25 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I feel like it’s been a medium pace so far

The cars in neutral after kicking it good outta the gate. 

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5 hours ago, tray said:

IThe Red Sox won by loading up the payroll but that is not a strategy that I think makes sense for the WS and I doubt JR would replicate that.

Great that the BoSox won with Sale and Eovaldi  but they are now screwed for a while. Look at the contracts they signed to get there:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/boston-red-sox-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

 

 

 

Yeah Bloom is gonna have to put in some serious work to solve that problem. 

15 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Add in another 3-4m for a cheap veteran starter to eat innings early in the season and I’d be more than happy

That's right I forgot about that we need a stopgap lefty starter to eat some innings. 

So we should finish 130-135m in total payroll and actually will have a good roster.

Next year about 20m comes off the books in Colome and Herrera, hopefully by that time Burdi is able to take a big step forward and Bummer remains consistent. If we didn't do that awful Abreu extension, we'd have even more breathing room to help offset the start of arbitration salaries for some big guns.

 

Edited by SoCalChiSox
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1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

 

That's right I forgot about that we need a stopgap lefty starter to eat some innings. 

So we should finish 130-135m in total payroll and actually will have a good roster.

Next year about 20m comes off the books in Colome and Herrera, hopefully by that time Burdi is able to take a big step forward and Bummer remains consistent. If we didn't do that awful Abreu extension, we'd have even more breathing room to help offset the start of arbitration salaries for some big guns.

 

Counting on Burdi (or Burger, that matter) is a fool’s errand at this point.

 

Back to the earlier question on Haniger...just have a feeling that selling too low on him this offseason isn’t going to happen.

That brings us to the two players the M’s themselves identified as critical: Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales. Haniger’s lost year made 2019 harder to watch, and harder to evaluate. He wasn’t tearing things up before he tore…a really important thing up, but I’m fine giving him a mulligan. We’ve all been waiting for him to make the leap from excellent/All-Star candidate RF to superstar, and he’s still got the possibility, though it’s diminishing with age. And if Mitch was hard to evaluate, I’m not even sure what to say about Marco Gonzales. I’ll start with this: He’s better than a lot of people, including me, give him credit for. I think I’ve been the most pessimistic about his chances to succeed with diminished velo, but he’s been a quality MLB starter this year, albeit with some hot/cold streaks of his own. It all adds up to someone that’s more than the sum of his peripherals/measurables, and I think I’ve underestimated him because of that. 

But you can put a thumb or two on the scale for his pitchability and competitiveness and still not have an ace, and I’m still not sure why the M’s have seemed to argue that he is one, or could become one. Gonzales ended up essentially repeating his good 2018, albeit with fewer strikeouts and more walks. The ERA was essentially identical, so he’s got two years of a 4.00 ERA, and two years of solid HR-suppression. I think his 2018-2019 run is essentially the best anyone could hope for given his bat-missing and velocity, and while that level of production is higher than I ever would’ve thought possible, I simply don’t see a path to a 6-8 WAR season. Give Marco 5 extra MPH and you could, but at this point, I’d just settle for him stopping the velo decline.

http://www.ussmariner.com

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1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

86m plus 21m (Wheeler) (107)

Plus 10m (Pederson/Calhoun, preferably the former) (117)

Reliever (9m) (126m total)

By my math on what is already under contract and project Arb, the team is at about 80 mill right now. 5 mill of Abreu's salary was a signing bonus, so he is making 12 mill instead of 17.8 mill in 2020. There's plenty of $$$ to still play with. Would be embarrassing if about $125 mill isn't a realistic payroll next year.

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6 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Yeah Bloom is gonna have to put in some serious work to solve that problem. 

That's right I forgot about that we need a stopgap lefty starter to eat some innings. 

So we should finish 130-135m in total payroll and actually will have a good roster.

Next year about 20m comes off the books in Colome and Herrera, hopefully by that time Burdi is able to take a big step forward and Bummer remains consistent. If we didn't do that awful Abreu extension, we'd have even more breathing room to help offset the start of arbitration salaries for some big guns.

 

McCann as well if he isn't traded.  So about 24 off the books. 

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16 hours ago, Pal said:

Get Wheeler done. Grab Betances. Trade for Marte or Mancini or Haniger. OR sign Gardner or Dickerson or Calhoun. Would be an outstanding offseason...with the Abreu and Grandal deals and cutting Yolmer, the teams sits around $80 mill in salary at the moment, correct?

You put Marte in this coming years offense and we win the division hands down.  Not sure the details on what it would take, but if that is a realistic option I think you have to do that and stick him in right

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16 minutes ago, Waylo Kneehigh said:

You put Marte in this coming years offense and we win the division hands down.  Not sure the details on what it would take, but if that is a realistic option I think you have to do that and stick him in right

Not sure any one addition would “win this division hands down”. 

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Marte is 31 years old with an injury history.

 As dynamic and amazing of a talent he is (Mookie Betts lite?) I'd be worried about him. The pirates need to trade him, and if it's a reasonable cost I'd suggest we go for it, but I wouldn't be given up anything super valuable. He could just as easily be out half the year next year with an injury.

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If the choice is Castellanos or Mancini, who are you taking? 

Advantages: 

Castellanos-Only costs money

Mancini-LH middle of the order bat

Disadvantages: 

Castellanos: Boras, RH bat in a lineup with only 2 LH batters(and they both are switch hitters) 

Mancini: Costs assets

 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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17 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think as we stand today without Yolmer, the correct figure is somewhere in the $81-83 range including arb eligible players. 
 

Should be plenty left to spend. $40M of it will be two SP and RF, if I had to guess. The rest will be on the cheap. 

Sprotrac is a pretty great resource IMO and they show our committed salary for 10 guys to be ~$71M.  If you allocate all of Abreu’s signing bonus to 2020 we’d be sitting at $74M plus we owe $1M for Alonso’s theoretic buy-our.  All in, that puts us right at $75M.  Assuming we add two starters, one reliever, a RF, and a bench piece, that means we need to include 10 pre-arb guys as well.  At $650k per, that puts us at right about $82M with five roster spots to fill.

My guess is we have a payroll ceiling ~$135M next year.  Adding Wheeler at $20M per would put at $102M, leaving a good $30M to work with.  Give me either Wood or Gonzalez for the rotation (1/$8M or 1/$6M respectively), a guy like McHugh for the bullpen (1/$5M), & Gennett for the bench (1/$5M) and we still have $15M to $17M left for RF.  That would likely be enough for any free agent OF (including Castellanos) and way more than what would be required for any realistic trade target (i.e. not Mookie).

To me, it’s absolutely critical we land Wheeler, as otherwise we’ll struggle to take advantage our remaining financial flexibility effectively.

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16 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If the choice is Castellanos or Mancini, who are you taking? 

Advantages: 

Castellanos-Only costs money

Mancini-LH middle of the order bat

Disadvantages: 

Castellanos: Boras, RH bat in a lineup with only 2 LH batters(and they both are switch hitters) 

Mancini: Costs assets

 

Mancini hits right handed.  

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14 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If the choice is Castellanos or Mancini, who are you taking? 

Advantages: 

Castellanos-Only costs money

Mancini-LH middle of the order bat

Disadvantages: 

Castellanos: Boras, RH bat in a lineup with only 2 LH batters(and they both are switch hitters) 

Mancini: Costs assets

 

Mancini is RH and is arguably a bigger liability in RF.  Given those factors, I’m taking Castellanos for cash only.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Mancini is RH and is arguably a bigger liability in RF.  Given those factors, I’m taking Castellanos for cash only.

wait, he is? I could have sworn he was a LH hitter. 

Never mind then. Looked it up. Not even a question anymore. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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I'd rather do a one year rental for several reasons.

1) Calhoun, Peterson & Dickerson can prolly all be had on a one year commitment and hit from the left side.

2) one of our kids in the minor may still pan out. (Basabe, Adolfo, Walker, Rutherford or Gonzalez.) Keep in mind we only need to hit on one of them.

3) Castellonos & Ozuna are big dollars and not good defensive players!

4) we have enough DH/ 1B statue guys as it is. 

5) if the first 2 solutions don't work, next yearsOF class is much more exciting George Springer, Micheal Brantley & Mookie Betts.

 

we should have just paid Brantley 3 yrs/45 mill last year instead of Farting around with Machado and his cousins!

 

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57 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If the choice is Castellanos or Mancini, who are you taking? 

Advantages: 

Castellanos-Only costs money

Mancini-LH middle of the order bat

Disadvantages: 

Castellanos: Boras, RH bat in a lineup with only 2 LH batters(and they both are switch hitters) 

Mancini: Costs assets

 

Castellanos and its not even close. His defense is improving. Mancini might be a trainwreck out there. Plus we'd have to give up Dunning or something valuable to get Mancini.

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14 minutes ago, Jnooch said:

I'd rather do a one year rental for several reasons.

1) Calhoun, Peterson & Dickerson can prolly all be had on a one year commitment and hit from the left side.

2) one of our kids in the minor may still pan out. (Basabe, Adolfo, Walker, Rutherford or Gonzalez.) Keep in mind we only need to hit on one of them.

3) Castellonos & Ozuna are big dollars and not good defensive players!

4) we have enough DH/ 1B statue guys as it is. 

5) if the first 2 solutions don't work, next yearsOF class is much more exciting George Springer, Micheal Brantley & Mookie Betts.

 

we should have just paid Brantley 3 yrs/45 mill last year instead of Farting around with Machado and his cousins!

 

We tried signing Brantley but he preferred a contender, hard to complain there.

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19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We tried signing Brantley but he preferred a contender, hard to complain there.

Hahn alluded that Brantley wanted to go play for an immediate contender, exactly. We do not need to totally blow our wad this offseason and should tactically make sure we have 20-30 million to play with next offseason at least. 

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