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A Realistic Offseason

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14 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

If you guys could only have one of Grandal or JD Martinez, who would you pick?

I looked at WAR on fan graphs and baseball reference.  Last 4 years Grandal 19.8 fg, 10.7 br total 30.5        JD 15.2fg, 15.7 br total 30.9

I don't know the difference in the sites formulas but they are very close when combined.  I think either would be fine but Grandal fits our team better.  Aside from McCanns first half,  McCann has not been great and Grandal would be a huge upgrade.  You should(we didn't) be able to get production from DH.

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10 hours ago, RTC said:

OK, fine, considering this thread is titled "A Realistic Offseason", I'LL BITE but it's all about TOTAL roster construction, not just one position:

PREMISE : this team has way more more payroll available that most people understand.  Enough that they need to be thinking WAY beyond friggin' Avi Garcia or Yolmer Sanchez.
ASSUMPTION : agree or disagree, they're going to re-sign Abreu.  I'm convinced of this.  I think we need to accept it.
ASSUMPTION : plug the holes on offense, while upgrading the defense, but emphasize starting pitching.
ASSUMPTION : Robert and Madrigal up mid-April
ASSUMPTION : RF defense doesn't suck

PAYROLL (spitballing here, anyone feel free to nitpick but I don't think I'm WAY off base here):
$15M base (all they have is TA, Herrara, and Eloy)

$20M for Arb and league minimum players (Arb is largely McCann and Colome)
$12M Abreu (I'm thinking/hoping they'll do 2+1option, 12/10/opt)
------------
that's $47M, hypothetically add:
$10 Gardner for RF (I like BamaDoc's idea, but pick equiv if you have better RF idea)
$15M Grandal
$12M Moose (2+opt, move Jose to DH, Moose can be 1B, along w/ Mendick can hold 2B until Madrigal and can provide 3B, DH, left-handed bench)
$6M bullpen (because... bullpen - you better sign a body or two)
$32M for 2 starters (take your pick based on this budget - I'm thinking one #2 plus an inning eater)
--------------
That works out to be $122M payroll which is roughly the Twins payroll.  If you disagree with my #'s and think it's $130+, fine, they can afford it.

ROSTER ASSUMPTIONS:
- Abreu is primary DH
- with 26 roster spots you can afford to carry someone like Engel, if can at least hit .245
- McCann/Collins rotate between C/DH/1B
- If Abreu needs to pay 1B a couple times x week to keep him happy, fine, whatever

You've added:
- Robert, Madrigal, Moose, Gardner, Grandal, to Moncada, TA, Abreu, and Eloy.  Hella lineup. 
- 3x LH bat
- 3x veterans, all with playoff experience
- 3x guys with avg to above ave OBP
- 2 starters
- bullpen support
- You've upgraded, defensively at 1B/RF/C

AND ....:
- you've upgraded 1B, C, and RF WITHOUT BLOCKING LONG TERM Sheets/Vaughn, Collins, or Basabe/Rutherford/Adolfo/Walker

That's way better than Yolmer and Avi, and has nothing to do with chasing JDM or, Cole.

Now .... do I think this organization can pull this off .....?  But this is what's possible.  We need to dream bigger than Avi or Yolmer.

Use BBRef payroll projections, it's your friend. Rodon and Leury are also Arb eligible. Even if we nontender Yolmer, they're at around $48M before an Abreu extension.

While I agree the final payroll will be between $120-130M, you've also estimated severely underestimated what these guys would get. Unless there is no one else offering these guys contract, you have to bump all your projections up by 25% at least. And in Grandal's case, he's not opting out of his deal to take less money than what's he's guaranteed, especially after a 5.2 fWAR season.

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I agree his payroll numbers are low but I don't mind the idea.  It is much of what I suggested and adds in Moustakas instead of Yolmer.  You may lose the bat of Abreu or Moustakas if you want to use Grandal at DH on some of his off days.  Struggling to decide which good bat to use would be a welcome change!  I really spent a lot of time looking at RF options and people really need to go look at how solid Gardner has been.  That amount of time in NY and you've never heard a bad word about the guy.  

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Point is you aren't adding all those resources and still stay within payroll budget. You are getting either of Moose or Grandal, and if you add Gardner you'd like have to sacrifice in SP or RP help. With how bad the bullpen has been, you'd have to spend more than $6M to upgrade. We likely have $60M (upper limit) to spend after extending Abreu. Unless you're projecting based on 2010 salaries, you have to cut corner somewhere. While people are against trading from the farm you have to trade a few of the top 15 prospects if you want to address all the holes in the offseason.

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17 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Point is you aren't adding all those resources and still stay within payroll budget. You are getting either of Moose or Grandal, and if you add Gardner you'd like have to sacrifice in SP or RP help. With how bad the bullpen has been, you'd have to spend more than $6M to upgrade. We likely have $60M (upper limit) to spend after extending Abreu. Unless you're projecting based on 2010 salaries, you have to cut corner somewhere. While people are against trading from the farm you have to trade a few of the top 15 prospects if you want to address all the holes in the offseason.

It is why I didn't add Moose.  It is why I didn't sacrifice major prospects.  

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5 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Point is you aren't adding all those resources and still stay within payroll budget. You are getting either of Moose or Grandal, and if you add Gardner you'd like have to sacrifice in SP or RP help. With how bad the bullpen has been, you'd have to spend more than $6M to upgrade. We likely have $60M (upper limit) to spend after extending Abreu. Unless you're projecting based on 2010 salaries, you have to cut corner somewhere. While people are against trading from the farm you have to trade a few of the top 15 prospects if you want to address all the holes in the offseason.

Absolutely right.  If you go under the assumption than every free agent will sign with the highest bidder (not unreasonable), the chances that the Sox get the 7 or 8 players they need (2 SP, 3 RP, C, DH, RF) are pretty remote.  There will be too many teams competing with us, thereby driving up the price.  A trade or 2 involving prospects may need to be made.

P.S.  I hope we learned our lesson with the Machado fiasco and quit the crap with incentives when other teams are offering guaranteed money.

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7 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Use BBRef payroll projections, it's your friend. Rodon and Leury are also Arb eligible. Even if we nontender Yolmer, they're at around $48M before an Abreu extension.

While I agree the final payroll will be between $120-130M, you've also estimated severely underestimated what these guys would get. Unless there is no one else offering these guys contract, you have to bump all your projections up by 25% at least. And in Grandal's case, he's not opting out of his deal to take less money than what's he's guaranteed, especially after a 5.2 fWAR season.

Which is why I prefaced the whole post by saying I was totally spitballing on the numbers.  I didn’t really intend for it to be any sort of specific plan, but rather an illustration that the Sox have the financial freedom 1)to be thinking beyond answers like Avi or Yolmer and 2) it’s not a situation where they need to spend money on pitching rather than hitting, they can do both

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1 hour ago, bubba phillips said:

Absolutely right.  If you go under the assumption than every free agent will sign with the highest bidder (not unreasonable), the chances that the Sox get the 7 or 8 players they need (2 SP, 3 RP, C, DH, RF) are pretty remote.  There will be too many teams competing with us, thereby driving up the price.  A trade or 2 involving prospects may need to be made.

P.S.  I hope we learned our lesson with the Machado fiasco and quit the crap with incentives when other teams are offering guaranteed money.

I really don’t think we’ll be signing three relievers.  Colome, Herrera, Bummer, & Fry are locks, while Cordero & Marshall will likely get spots as well, at least to start the season.  I think they add one established high-leverage guy and go with some spring training invites to push Cordero & Marshall.  Hamilton and some other young should also be in the mix.

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1 hour ago, bubba phillips said:

Absolutely right.  If you go under the assumption than every free agent will sign with the highest bidder (not unreasonable), the chances that the Sox get the 7 or 8 players they need (2 SP, 3 RP, C, DH, RF) are pretty remote.  There will be too many teams competing with us, thereby driving up the price.  A trade or 2 involving prospects may need to be made.

P.S.  I hope we learned our lesson with the Machado fiasco and quit the crap with incentives when other teams are offering guaranteed money.

Yeah you only use incentives on someone like Scooter Gennett who had a terrible year because of injuries but may be a really good player to consider to buy low on when you look at his 2017 /2018 production. Much like the way the Rays got Avi. That's another LH batter with decent pop and not yet 30 who if healthy could be a major pickup for cheap and in case Madrigal's production sucks. If Madrigal is good you still have a versatile bench piece.

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2 hours ago, RTC said:

Which is why I prefaced the whole post by saying I was totally spitballing on the numbers.  I didn’t really intend for it to be any sort of specific plan, but rather an illustration that the Sox have the financial freedom 1)to be thinking beyond answers like Avi or Yolmer and 2) it’s not a situation where they need to spend money on pitching rather than hitting, they can do both

Hard to call it spitballing and prove a point when all numbers are on the low side. Realistically, Sox may be able to add an impact player or two along with a few role players, but definitely can’t address all needs by doling out cash. While it’s possible we push $120M payroll at the end, its also possible that they leave some of the money to spend mid season, depending if they’re in position to compete.

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I just don’t want Hahn thinking resigning Abreu makes fans happy about the offseason and does nothing else substantial.

Edited by Soxfest

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23 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Hard to call it spitballing and prove a point when all numbers are on the low side. Realistically, Sox may be able to add an impact player or two along with a few role players, but definitely can’t address all needs by doling out cash. While it’s possible we push $120M payroll at the end, its also possible that they leave some of the money to spend mid season, depending if they’re in position to compete.

This franchise had a $130 million payroll in 2011. They have been hugely profitable the last 3 seasons. If they push to $120 million, they should have plenty of money to spend midseason and next offseason while still breaking even.

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21 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This board’s obsession with Grandal is nearly matching last winter’s obsession with Machado. Pass. Pitching should be priority #1, #2, and #3 followed by RF and DH. They’re fine at catcher for next season just like they were fine at infield this season. No reason to spend big bucks on that position with McCann back and Collins waiting in the wings.

We need to fill the DH position...might as get positional help at catcher while we're at it.

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4 hours ago, poppysox said:

We need to fill the DH position...might as get positional help at catcher while we're at it.

Do we really need help at catcher though? Even if McCann regresses with the bat, he still handles the staff really well. Sign a better bat to DH and a good defensive backup to be the primary backup or third catcher depending on what they do with Collins.

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1 hour ago, soxfan2014 said:

Do we really need help at catcher though? Even if McCann regresses with the bat, he still handles the staff really well. Sign a better bat to DH and a good defensive backup to be the primary backup or third catcher depending on what they do with Collins.

If you look at our teams deficiencies as I outlined at the beginning and in the season review thread, Grandal hits the areas of terrible plate discipline and adds LH hitting as he switch hits.  He is going to give you a bat 15-20% better than league average and way better than average catcher.  He also has a career OBP of nearly .350 and is at .380 this year.  I hope this indicates opposing pitchers working a lot harder and if his approach rubs off on some of our players, even better.  I expect McCann to regress but I keep him for your reasons.

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Realistic Offseason Plan:

  • Resign Abreu - 2 years / $28M with $13M club option in 2022
  • Sox lowball Yolmer on 2 year / $7M extension and he takes it
  • Sign Zack Wheeler - 4 years / $70M
  • Sign Grandal - 3 years / $60M
  • Sign Alex Wood - 1 year / $8M
  • RF is tough.  I want Nimmo.  I think we shy away from Castellanos/Ozuna due to poor defense and Abreu staying around clogging up DH.  Will likely be one of Calhoun, Dickerson, Gordon, or perhaps Gardner.  Don't hate the Gardner idea frankly.  Hopefully all on 1 year deals with an option.  Let's just call it 1 year / $10M to be safe (probably conservatively high for most of those guys).   For the sake of this exercise, I am going to select Dickerson.  
  • I think we'll also sign a decent veteran reliever.  Hard to say who - let's go with Chris Martin at 2 years / $12M.

Payroll would be right around $125M, still below league average.

Lineup by May 1: 

Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B/DH, Eloy LF, Grandal DH / C, Anderson SS, Dickerson RF, McCann C, Madrigal 2B 

BN: Leury, Yolmer, Collins and Engel

Rotation: Giolito, Wheeler, Cease, Lopez, Wood (with Kopech joining mid-June, Rodon shortly thereafter)

Pen: Colome, Bummer, Fry, Martin, Cordero, Marshall, Herrera and one of Hamilton/Fulmer/Johnson/Burdi/Covey/Ruiz/Vieria, etc. 

Tough to not be excited about that team.  Probably doesn't get you to the playoffs, but they'll be young, cheap and controllable.  All good things.  May be good enough to compete in the AL Central that will certainly still be down.  

 

 

Edited by ChiSox59
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6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Realistic Offseason Plan:

  • Resign Abreu - 2 years / $28M with $13M club option in 2022
  • Sox lowball Yolmer on 2 year / $7M extension and he takes it
  • Sign Zack Wheeler - 4 years / $70M
  • Sign Grandal - 3 years / $60M
  • Sign Alex Wood - 1 year / $8M
  • RF is tough.  I want Nimmo.  I think we shy away from Castellanos/Ozuna due to poor defense and Abreu staying around clogging up DH.  Will likely be one of Calhoun, Dickerson, Gordon, or perhaps Gardner.  Don't hate the Gardner idea frankly.  Hopefully all on 1 year deals with an option.  Let's just call it 1 year / $10M to be safe (probably conservatively high for most of those guys).   For the sake of this exercise, I am going to select Dickerson.  
  • I think we'll also sign a decent veteran reliever.  Hard to say who - let's go with Chris Martin at 2 years / $12M.

Payroll would be right around $125M, still below league average.

Lineup by May 1: 

Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B/DH, Eloy LF, Grandal DH / C, Anderson SS, Dickerson RF, McCann C, Madrigal 2B 

BN: Leury, Yolmer, Collins and Engel

Rotation: Giolito, Wheeler, Cease, Lopez, Wood (with Kopech joining mid-June, Rodon shortly thereafter)

Pen: Colome, Bummer, Fry, Cordero, Marshall, Herrera and two of Hamilton/Fulmer/Johnson/Burdi/Covey/Ruiz/Vieria, etc. 

Tough to not be excited about that team.  Probably doesn't get you to the playoffs, but they'll be young, cheap and controllable.  All good things.  May be good enough to compete in the AL Central that will certainly still be down.  

 

 

Pretty close to what I was thinking.  I think Jose will get more $.  I didn't have Wheeler but at that rate I might consider it.  I thought about Nimmo but worry about prospect cost.  If we could do it cheaply ok but why I went with Gardner because I like his OBP more than Calhouns ks but better slugging.  I think we have to many ks.  Wood and his back injury scare me on anything but an incentive laden deal but again I want to count on the free agents, heck for a few dollars more I would think about bringing back Nova.  Good job!

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If the Sox truly were serious about winning they would hire Girardi or Maddon today. Ricky will always have a job in baseball. No reason to feel sorry for him. We need an outcry on the south side for Maddon/Girardi. put somebody real in charge, Mr. Hahn. Geez, it's not that difficult.

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I think the trend is younger, analytical, and cheaper in managers though I think Maddon will have a job.  Not sure he gets 6 million again.  How ironic if Ricky loses  job for Maddon twice.  I am not a super close observer but not crazy about Maddon's use of pitchers.  Seems to have a lot of injuries and he damn near killed Chapman.  I figure he wouldn't cede control of pitchers  to Coop like some think Ventura/Renteria did.

Edited by BamaDoc

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15 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I think the trend is younger, analytical, and cheaper in managers though I think Maddon will have a job.  Not sure he gets 6 million again.  How ironic if Ricky loses  job for Maddon twice.  I am not a super close observer but not crazy about Maddon's use of pitchers.  Seems to have a lot of injuries and he damn near killed Chapman.  I figure he wouldn't cede control of pitchers  to Coop like some think Ventura/Renteria did.

I think Maddon is going back to the Angels. Ausmus was fired after just one year and Maddon coached, played, and scouted for them.

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On 9/29/2019 at 5:25 AM, HoosierSox said:

RF needs to be plugged unless you want Cordell, Palka, Engel out there. My guess is Hahn goes after somebody like Puig.

Alternatively, they could take Leury to arbitration and get him for relatively cheap as our RF, with Engel as the utility OF. That would give them more flexibility at finding a (preferably left-handed) DH. (I'm guessing that Palka's 2019 performance removes him from consideration as our 2020 DH.)

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I think I would prefer Holt to Gennett .  What were Gennett's injuries -.7 WAR and OPS+ of 47 don't inspire me and previously glove negated much of bat.  Might give a minor league invite.  Holt has more positional versatility and coming off much better year.

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2 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

I think I would prefer Holt to Gennett .  What were Gennett's injuries -.7 WAR and OPS+ of 47 don't inspire me and previously glove negated much of bat.  Might give a minor league invite.  Holt has more positional versatility and coming off much better year.

I assume Holt( he makes $3.75) will take a home town discount to stay in Boston so we would have to pay a premium. But Yolmer gets  $4.625 already so that could be doable 

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17 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Realistic Offseason Plan:

  • Resign Abreu - 2 years / $28M with $13M club option in 2022
  • Sox lowball Yolmer on 2 year / $7M extension and he takes it
  • Sign Zack Wheeler - 4 years / $70M
  • Sign Grandal - 3 years / $60M
  • Sign Alex Wood - 1 year / $8M
  •  RF is tough.  I want Nimmo.  I think we shy away from Castellanos/Ozuna due to poor defense and Abreu staying around clogging up DH.  Will likely be one of Calhoun, Dickerson, Gordon, or perhaps Gardner.  Don't hate the Gardner idea frankly.  Hopefully all on 1 year deals with an option.  Let's just call it 1 year / $10M to be safe (probably conservatively high for most of those guys).   For the sake of this exercise, I am going to select Dickerson.  
  • I think we'll also sign a decent veteran reliever.  Hard to say who - let's go with Chris Martin at 2 years / $12M.

 Payroll would be right around $125M, still below league average.

 Lineup by May 1: 

Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B/DH, Eloy LF, Grandal DH / C, Anderson SS, Dickerson RF, McCann C, Madrigal 2B 

BN: Leury, Yolmer, Collins and Engel

 Rotation: Giolito, Wheeler, Cease, Lopez, Wood (with Kopech joining mid-June, Rodon shortly thereafter)

 Pen: Colome, Bummer, Fry, Martin, Cordero, Marshall, Herrera and one of Hamilton/Fulmer/Johnson/Burdi/Covey/Ruiz/Vieria, etc. 

Tough to not be excited about that team.  Probably doesn't get you to the playoffs, but they'll be young, cheap and controllable.  All good things.  May be good enough to compete in the AL Central that will certainly still be down.  

 

  

I would be on board with this off-season. Though I think Wheeler gets more than 4/70.

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1 hour ago, Sarava said:

I would be on board with this off-season. Though I think Wheeler gets more than 4/70.

Agreed, I think Wheeler’s floor is 4/$80M.  Eovaldi got 4/$68M last offseason and Wheeler is a much more proven commodity.  Still a price I’d be willing to pay.

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