A Realistic Offseason

[Jack Parkman]

5 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

I certainly would not put Bumgarner in a tier above Wheeler and Keuchel and this point in his career. . But I also see almost 0 chance bumgarner leaves the NL... He likes to hit too much

Bumgarner pitched 210 innings and had 200+ k this year. He's definitely in a tier above Wheeler and Keuchel even though the ERAs are similar. Wheeler and Bumgarner are similar but Bumgarner's durability and left-handedness puts him above Wheeler IMO. 

Both in the NL:

Bumgarner: 3.2 fWAR, 3.90 ERA,  203 k in 207.2 IP 

Wheeler: 4.7 fWAR, 3.96 ERA 195 k in 195.1 IP

The fWAR difference is based on Wheeler having a 3.48 FIP vs Bumgarner's 3.90. 

The difference between the two are hits and HR. Otherwise very similar. Bumgarner gives up fewer hits and walks than Wheeler, but gave up more HR. I think when you look at it objectively, Bumgarner is the better pitcher. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[BamaDoc]

That is why I proposed cutting Yolmer to about 3.3 million but give him a couple years as a sweetener.  I don't see Leury, Yolmer, and Engel all being back.  I want better hitting so I left out Engel.

[Orlando]

I would love to see Yolmer sign with the Diamondbacks and hit 35 bombs and drive in 120. Look at Marte and Escobar.

[BackDoorBreach]

Jon Morosi was just on the score and said he thinks Castellanos is going to get somewhere near a 5 year 100 million dollar contract.  

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

25 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Jon Morosi was just on the score and said he thinks Castellanos is going to get somewhere near a 5 year 100 million dollar contract.  

ew

[ChiSox59]

31 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Jon Morosi was just on the score and said he thinks Castellanos is going to get somewhere near a 5 year 100 million dollar contract.  

I'd bet a healthy sum on the under. 

[Wanne]

2 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

That is why I proposed cutting Yolmer to about 3.3 million but give him a couple years as a sweetener.  I don't see Leury, Yolmer, and Engel all being back.  I want better hitting so I left out Engel.

I don't think Leury is going anywhere...leaves Yolmer and Engel on the outside looking in IMO.  As much as I love Yolmer...Mendick deserves his shot and saves money too.

As for signing Wheeler (based on other posts)...I'm not against it...but not thrilled if it would cost a high pick.  Cole and Bumgarner are pipe dreams IMO.

I just read a article about the Rockies owner whining about his payroll and money.  Reach out and see what it'd take to pry Jon Gray away from them. He has to pay Trevor Story, David Dahl, Oberg and Gray arbitration this year. See what'd take...

[Jack Parkman]

36 minutes ago, Wanne said:

I don't think Leury is going anywhere...leaves Yolmer and Engel on the outside looking in IMO.  As much as I love Yolmer...Mendick deserves his shot and saves money too.

As for signing Wheeler (based on other posts)...I'm not against it...but not thrilled if it would cost a high pick.  Cole and Bumgarner are pipe dreams IMO.

I just read a article about the Rockies owner whining about his payroll and money.  Reach out and see what it'd take to pry Jon Gray away from them. He has to pay Trevor Story, David Dahl, Oberg and Gray arbitration this year. See what'd take...

Now Bumgarner's a pipedream....great. if he's a pipedream so is Wheeler and JDM so let's just talk about the dumpster diving.

Edited October 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[poppysox]

8 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

Man Joc Pederson appears to be a good fit still.  Even though he has 1 year left he isn't a difficult extension candidate.  I am predicting the official offseason of:

JD Martinez (5 years, 100 million)

Zach Wheeler (5 years, 95 million)

Joc Pederson (trade), try to extend.  

Alex Wood (1 year, 8 million, with incentives to get to 12 million)

Resign Abreu to a 1 year, 14 million dollar deal with an option of 15 million for a 2nd year.

One bullpen arm > 6mil per year.

 

Obviously I'd love one of the two stud SP on the market.. But this would be a fantastic, and more realistic offseason imo

I would prefer Grandal over JD...but in general I like your thoughts.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Jon Morosi was just on the score and said he thinks Castellanos is going to get somewhere near a 5 year 100 million dollar contract.  

Won't happen. These reporters are all shills for the agents. Every year everyone forecasts big bucks being spent and the last couple years the market has been tight . He's not a 2 way player . Why anyone thinks he gets $20M for 5 years is beyond me.

Oh look he's a Boras client . Just shocking the richest most powerful agent out there already has one of his lackey's out in full force.

[SoxAce]

I wonder what the Mets would want for Dominic Smith. Was a former top spect for them and was considered the future at 1B before Pete Alonso destroyed the minors and majors and took his job. I can't imagine them playing him at LF, especially with his foot issues.

Fangraphs had a good article about him finally starting to figure it out back in June before he got injured. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dominic-smith-is-hitting-himself-out-of-a-pinch/

[ChiSox59]

I want Grandal. Such a great fit. Should be affordable. Plugs so many holes. Yesssss please. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

1 hour ago, SoxAce said:

I wonder what the Mets would want for Dominic Smith. Was a former top spect for them and was considered the future at 1B before Pete Alonso destroyed the minors and majors and took his job. I can't imagine them playing him at LF, especially with his foot issues.

Fangraphs had a good article about him finally starting to figure it out back in June before he got injured. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dominic-smith-is-hitting-himself-out-of-a-pinch/

Dom Smith has always reminded me of Yonder Alonso and Logan Morrison, the bad version of them that is, and he still does. His approach did improve but his EV is still pretty poor for a bat only player. Statcast had him as extremely lucky this year by measure of xwOBA. He worth taking a flyer on hoping he finally taps into his power, but I wouldn’t trade more than a B level guy for him.

[SoxAce]

10 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Dom Smith has always reminded me of Yonder Alonso and Logan Morrison, the bad version of them that is, and he still does. His approach did improve but his EV is still pretty poor for a bat only player. Statcast had him as extremely lucky this year by measure of xwOBA. He worth taking a flyer on hoping he finally taps into his power, but I wouldn’t trade more than a B level guy for him.

I'll give you that as his xwOBA is identical to Tim Anderson. Timmy had a higher BABIP as well although Timmy's hard hit % was about 2% higher. But again though... sample size with Dom. We really don't know what he is at this point. I am definitely not giving up a high end spect for him btw.

Edited October 2, 2019 by SoxAce

[poppysox]

11 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I want Grandal. Such a great fit. Should be affordable. Plugs so many holes. Yesssss please. 

Grandal should be one of our primary targets.

[oldsox]

12 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Won't happen. These reporters are all shills for the agents. Every year everyone forecasts big bucks being spent and the last couple years the market has been tight . He's not a 2 way player . Why anyone thinks he gets $20M for 5 years is beyond me.

Oh look he's a Boras client . Just shocking the richest most powerful agent out there already has one of his lackey's out in full force.

That's all I need to hear.  Don't even call him.

[GGajewski18]

My off season plan:

Resign Abreu 2 years/29 million

DH J.D Martinez 4 years/85 million
SP Zack Wheeler 4 years/75 million
OF Corey Dickerson 1 year/10 million
RP Will Smith 3 years/25 million
SP Alex Wood 1 year/9 million

CF Robert
2B Madrigal
DH Martinez
3B Moncada
LF Jimenez
1B Abreu
RF Dickerson
C McCann/Collins
SS Anderson

Bench
UTIL Garcia
CF Engel
INF Mendick
C McCann/Collins

Rotation
SP Giolito
SP Wheeler
SP Cease
SP Lopez
SP Wood

Kopech starts in minors, then comes up and takes the place of Wood.

Bullpen:
Wood once the starters come back
Herrera
Fry
Bummer
Colome
Cordero
Smith

Burdi, Burr, Hamilton, Ruiz waiting in the wings

[longshot7]

Think people are overlooking the liability that Grandal is behind the plate.  Remember the Dodgers benched him for all of the postseason last year, despite his bat.  McCann has righted the Catcher position and w Collins behind him, there just isn't at-bats (esp if they sign a reg DH, like Martinez).

Let's spend $$ more at pitcher, RF, & DH.  Catcher is fine right now.

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, longshot7 said:

Think people are overlooking the liability that Grandal is behind the plate.  Remember the Dodgers benched him for all of the postseason last year, despite his bat.  McCann has righted the Catcher position and w Collins behind him, there just isn't at-bats (esp if they sign a reg DH, like Martinez).

Let's spend $$ more at pitcher, RF, & DH.  Catcher is fine right now.

Grandal is a liability but Collins isn’t?

[ChiSox59]

18 minutes ago, longshot7 said:

Think people are overlooking the liability that Grandal is behind the plate.  Remember the Dodgers benched him for all of the postseason last year, despite his bat.  McCann has righted the Catcher position and w Collins behind him, there just isn't at-bats (esp if they sign a reg DH, like Martinez).

Let's spend $$ more at pitcher, RF, & DH.  Catcher is fine right now.

Grandal solves DH, catcher and 1B.  Between Grandal, Abreu, McCann and Collins, DH, 1B and C are all covered.  

McCann hit .226/.281/.413 in the second half with 72 Ks and 12 walks.  He was amazing in the 1st half and a deserving All Star, but signing Grandal to catch 50% of the time, DH 20% of the time and play 1B 20% of the time will really allow the Sox to not overexpose both McCann and Collins.

Grandal really is a fantastic fit, and he's also not going to be outrageously expensive.  He also showed a ton of improvement behind the plate in 2019.  

[SCCWS]

35 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Grandal solves DH, catcher and 1B.  Between Grandal, Abreu, McCann and Collins, DH, 1B and C are all covered.  

McCann hit .226/.281/.413 in the second half with 72 Ks and 12 walks.  He was amazing in the 1st half and a deserving All Star, but signing Grandal to catch 50% of the time, DH 20% of the time and play 1B 20% of the time will really allow the Sox to not overexpose both McCann and Collins.

Grandal really is a fantastic fit, and he's also not going to be outrageously expensive.  He also showed a ton of improvement behind the plate in 2019.  

Some thoughts.  Grandal was not much better at .229/388/398 in 2nd half.  McCann was a 3.8 War to Grandal 2.5 ( mainly based on Grandal's poor defense). Also McCann cost $2.5 Mil and Grandal $16Mil. I think McCann is more likely what we saw 2nd half and Grandal pretty regularly has a poor 2nd half. Now your idea to only catch Grandal 50% may improve his poor 2nd halves. But I wonder if he will rejct only being a PT catcher. 

I would spend more money or use resources in RF than pay Grandal at least 4X what McCann gets.  Now if Grandal agrees to catch 50% and Sox think that solves his 2nd half swoons and also solves DH problem then maybe he is worth the money. 

[Perfect Vision]

1 hour ago, longshot7 said:

Think people are overlooking the liability that Grandal is behind the plate.  Remember the Dodgers benched him for all of the postseason last year, despite his bat.  McCann has righted the Catcher position and w Collins behind him, there just isn't at-bats (esp if they sign a reg DH, like Martinez).

Let's spend $$ more at pitcher, RF, & DH.  Catcher is fine right now.

He's arguably the best pitch-framing catcher in the game.  He had a bad postseason with the Dodgers, but that was an anomaly when looking at his career defensive ability. 

[poppysox]

1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

He's arguably the best pitch-framing catcher in the game.  He had a bad postseason with the Dodgers, but that was an anomaly when looking at his career defensive ability. 

Catcher is a physically brutal position and just beats the crap out of an everyday catcher.  Rotating between catcher/DH/1st. base/backup catcher day of rest seems the best way to get that new DH along with improve the overall daily catching.  Two top quality mentors for Collins is a nice bonus.

[Perfect Vision]

Grandal would be my No. 1 target, not JDM.  It would allow McCann to move into the back up catcher role (as Giolito's personal catcher) and Collins to be the primary DH where he could focus exclusively on hitting for the first time in his career.  When facing a right handed pitcher, they would have 3 power lefty bats in the lineup -- Moncada, Grandal, and Collins -- so good balance.  And as others have said, Grandal will come cheaper than JDM, leaving some money to be put elsewhere.

I can't see the Sox signing both JDM and Grandal.  That would leave Collins without a home (assuming they bring Abreu back to play 1B.  They could try trading him but it's a stretch to assume that they'll find a good deal involving him, and for a team hungry for left handed power, would seem odd to trade one of your few left handed power hitters.

[SCCWS]

37 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

He's arguably the best pitch-framing catcher in the game.  He had a bad postseason with the Dodgers, but that was an anomaly when looking at his career defensive ability. 

Defensive stats are always a little questionable but most of his dropped this year. He allowed 73 SB so teams ran on him and his caught stealing % was 26.  His Dwar dropped from .6 to -.4