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A Realistic Offseason

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Haha. I posted that I was going and asked if anyone was there. He said he was, we talked for a bit. 

We are all Sox fans and it's all good. We disagree sometimes and talk shit, but we are all brothers rooting for the same goal. I've watched the Sox play in 5 different cities this year and showed love to all the Sox fans I could. 

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2 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

We are all Sox fans and it's all good. We disagree sometimes and talk shit, but we are all brothers rooting for the same goal. I've watched the Sox play in 5 different cities this year and showed love to all the Sox fans I could. 

Exactly. If you want to know my opinions Balta and I are almost lockstep in agreement. Balta can explain it better than I can. 

We disagree here and there, but we're about 90% on the same page. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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22 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

He specifically said that they were only interested in short term deals. Do you know how to read? Do you want me to bold it for you? 

Guys...guys...guys...it's a long offseason.  Let's be nice.

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1 minute ago, poppysox said:

Guys...guys...guys...it's a long offseason.  Let's be nice.

I'm busting his balls. 

Quite frankly I'm tired of being attacked constantly here. 

Even I think that Margalus, Nelson and pnoles are too negative so there's that. I can recognize that Moncada is awesome without trying to mislead people into thinking that he sucks. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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10 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Exactly. If you want to know my opinions Balta and I are almost lockstep in agreement. Balta can explain it better than I can. 

We disagree here and there, but we're about 90% on the same page. 

And I disagree with 90% of what Balta says, so now it’s all making sense 😉

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And I disagree with 90% of what Balta says, so now it’s all making sense 😉

SoxAce can attest to this, it's all about my trust in the FO. I post on a Blackhawks forum and I'm way more positive about them than I am about the Sox. I think that Hahn and Kenny are clowns, so I expect the worst out of him. I think Bowman generally knows what he is doing, so I'm infinitely more positive about the Hawks. 

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21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

SoxAce can attest to this, it's all about my trust in the FO. I post on a Blackhawks forum and I'm way more positive about them than I am about the Sox. I think that Hahn and Kenny are clowns, so I expect the worst out of him. I think Bowman generally knows what he is doing, so I'm infinitely more positive about the Hawks. 

No... you're really not (at least not the GM).

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7 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

No... you're really not (at least not the GM).

Um, what? Do you remember the threads that I made this summer?  The overly positive koolaid ones that make me look stupid? 

How many times have I defended Bowman from the mouth breathers on there?  Geez man. 

Like I said, it's all about management and I have infinitely more faith in Bowman than either Hahn or Pace. (Forman's just a clown) 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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56 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...I was going to say, when were the Sox interested in these guys in trade talks?  Hill pretty much joined the Dodgers when we were rebuilding.  This Kinander kid really seems full of shit to me.

Anyways, you hearing anything Dave?  I’ll take the smallest scrap of a rumor to wash the Parkman out of my mouth.

He's not lying just for twitter love, someone is def feeding him info and he's not intentionally making anything up... but I have reason to believe he hasn't been very accurate of late.  

I haven't heard anything and won't for at least a few weeks I'd imagine.  Free agency is a day old and Boras controls the market this winter, so I'm assuming it's going to be slow and torturous.  I wouldn't publicize info even if I did have though unless I know the ink is dry, no offense to you guys.  Last thing I want is to F up an opportunity for the Sox to get better.  I think we are all happy with this offseason though and that doesn't mean Rendon/Stras/Cole, at least not right now.  

I skimmed the last few pages of this thread this afternoon and a lot of the acquisition combos you guys have thrown out seem totally plausible/doable to me.  No excuses anymore.  Can't have any Ervin Santana type signings anymore, it's go time.

Also next year I would be ALL IN on signing Mookie.  Give him a blank check and I'm not kidding 

 

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3 minutes ago, wsd said:

He's not lying just for twitter love, someone is def feeding him info and he's not intentionally making anything up... but I have reason to believe he hasn't been very accurate of late.  

I haven't heard anything and won't for at least a few weeks I'd imagine.  Free agency is a day old and Boras controls the market this winter, so I'm assuming it's going to be slow and torturous.  I wouldn't publicize info even if I did have though unless I know the ink is dry, no offense to you guys.  Last thing I want is to F up an opportunity for the Sox to get better.  I think we are all happy with this offseason though and that doesn't mean Rendon/Stras/Cole, at least not right now.  

I skimmed the last few pages of this thread this afternoon and a lot of the acquisition combos you guys have thrown out seem totally plausible/doable to me.  No excuses anymore.  Can't have any Ervin Santana type signings anymore, it's go time.

Also next year I would be ALL IN on signing Mookie.  Give him a blank check and I'm not kidding 

 

Dude I really hope they open up the checkbook for Mookie. I'd stay away from him this year but back up the Brinks truck for him next winter.

I could live with no Cole/Strasburg if they are serious about Betts. 

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8 minutes ago, wsd said:

He's not lying just for twitter love, someone is def feeding him info and he's not intentionally making anything up... but I have reason to believe he hasn't been very accurate of late.  

I haven't heard anything and won't for at least a few weeks I'd imagine.  Free agency is a day old and Boras controls the market this winter, so I'm assuming it's going to be slow and torturous.  I wouldn't publicize info even if I did have though unless I know the ink is dry, no offense to you guys.  Last thing I want is to F up an opportunity for the Sox to get better.  I think we are all happy with this offseason though and that doesn't mean Rendon/Stras/Cole, at least not right now.  

I skimmed the last few pages of this thread this afternoon and a lot of the acquisition combos you guys have thrown out seem totally plausible/doable to me.  No excuses anymore.  Can't have any Ervin Santana type signings anymore, it's go time.

Also next year I would be ALL IN on signing Mookie.  Give him a blank check and I'm not kidding 

 

No offense taken, would rather have a deal get done than risk it falling apart as a result of it getting out early.  Speaking of which, do you think that’s what happened with the rumored Joc deal?  I know a lot of posters on this site with quality connections felt that deal was close to completion and maybe even you hinted at that as well.  Just curious to get your thoughts on that, because while believable to me, many here seem to think it’s far-fetched a deal could fall apart of a leak.

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5 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

This thread is an abortion.

OK, How about this for a “realistic offseason:”

 

1.       Madison Bumgarner 5/$110MM. He’s a LHP with championship experience. The SFG are salary-fucked, what with their Samardzia/Cueto/Longoria/Posey contracts. Their team is getting old, bad, and won’t sniff the top of that division for years. Their local media are assuming he’d be OK with 3/$60MM or 4/$80MM; Spotrac has his market value at 5/$105MM.

2.       Yasiel Puig 4/$72MM. Yes, he’s RH. Yes, he’s had his differences with Bumgarner and Abreu. Yes, he’s had his effort questioned at times. He’s also 28, and an actual RFer. Spotrac has his market value at 3/$53MM, but there simply aren't any other RFers available in FA this year.

3.       Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 2/$4MM. Here, the Chicago Reinsdorfs get to exercise their “thrifty” side, and bring in a LH DH on the cheap. I would have preferred Yanagita, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be posted.

4.       Jose Abreu 2/$30MM. He’s going to be here anyway, whether Ron likes it or not.

5.       Shelby Miller or some other veteran bum 1/$2MM + an option. [Shrugs.] Eat them innings until Kopech shows up, I guess.

 

I’m guessing the salaries add up to: $70MM existing +  $22MM +  $18MM  +  $2MM +  $15MM + $2MM =  $129MM-ish on OD.

 

My working hypothesis is that no Boras client will come here. I also think that Wheeler's market will be too rich for the Reinsdorfs.  I also think that with a top-heavy/shallow system, any trades to spruce up the roster, and/or close any holes, and/or repair any underperformances by the five so mentioned above will have to come AFTER the injured/underperforming pieces in MiLB get healthy and re-establish their prospect value.

 

[Edit] Carry on...

Edited by Two-Gun Pete
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11 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

4/72 is way too much for Puig IMO.

Good god that would be a horrible signing. I'd be so disappointed if that's what we got lol

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35 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

OK, How about this for a “realistic offseason:”

 

1.       Madison Bumgarner 5/$110MM. He’s a LHP with championship experience. The SFG are salary-fucked, what with their Samardzia/Cueto/Longoria/Posey contracts. Their team is getting old, bad, and won’t sniff the top of that division for years. Their local media are assuming he’d be OK with 3/$60MM or 4/$80MM; Spotrac has his market value at 5/$105MM.

2.       Yasiel Puig 4/$72MM. Yes, he’s RH. Yes, he’s had his differences with Bumgarner and Abreu. Yes, he’s had his effort questioned at times. He’s also 28, and an actual RFer. Spotrac has his market value at 3/$53MM, but there simply aren't any other RFers available in FA this year.

3.       Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 2/$4MM. Here, the Chicago Reinsdorfs get to exercise their “thrifty” side, and bring in a LH DH on the cheap. I would have preferred Yanagita, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be posted.

4.       Jose Abreu 2/$30MM. He’s going to be here anyway, whether Ron likes it or not.

5.       Shelby Miller or some other veteran bum 1/$2MM + an option. [Shrugs.] Eat them innings until Kopech shows up, I guess.

 

I’m guessing the salaries add up to: $70MM existing +  $22MM +  $18MM  +  $2MM +  $15MM + $2MM =  $129MM-ish on OD.

 

My working hypothesis is that no Boras client will come here. I also think that Wheeler's market will be too rich for the Reinsdorfs.  I also think that with a top-heavy/shallow system, any trades to spruce up the roster, and/or close any holes, and/or repair any underperformances by the five so mentioned above will have to come AFTER the injured/underperforming pieces in MiLB get healthy and re-establish their prospect value.

 

[Edit] Carry on...

As much as I like(D) Puig in his first two years, he's not getting anything more than 3/$40-45ish, something like the Melky Cabrera deal.

He's pretty consistently been worth around 1.5-2ish fWAR in recent years.

Zero interest in overpaying Bumgarner with more than $100 million for his decline years without first doing everything possible to get Wheeler.   And probably Odorizzi for roughly half the price of Bumgarner, leaving that other $55 million in the tank for other needed acquisitions.

Finally, Bumgarner seems like an NL-first guy, he loves hitting and supposedly enjoys life out on the West Coast, so it's pretty difficult to imagine him coming to Chicago, not to mention the culture-clash/chemistry issues in the clubhouse that would be brought to the fore.

 

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43 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No offense taken, would rather have a deal get done than risk it falling apart as a result of it getting out early.  Speaking of which, do you think that’s what happened with the rumored Joc deal?  

that is 10000% what happened 

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3 hours ago, wegner said:

Ryu or MadBum?  Preference?  What do we think?

I'd roll with the consistent guy who has won it all. I trust Bum alot more than Ryu. 

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6 minutes ago, wsd said:

that is 10000% what happened 

Rick Hahn's bum ass just likes using that as an excuse

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47 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

OK, How about this for a “realistic offseason:”

 

1.       Madison Bumgarner 5/$110MM. He’s a LHP with championship experience. The SFG are salary-fucked, what with their Samardzia/Cueto/Longoria/Posey contracts. Their team is getting old, bad, and won’t sniff the top of that division for years. Their local media are assuming he’d be OK with 3/$60MM or 4/$80MM; Spotrac has his market value at 5/$105MM.

2.       Yasiel Puig 4/$72MM. Yes, he’s RH. Yes, he’s had his differences with Bumgarner and Abreu. Yes, he’s had his effort questioned at times. He’s also 28, and an actual RFer. Spotrac has his market value at 3/$53MM, but there simply aren't any other RFers available in FA this year.

3.       Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 2/$4MM. Here, the Chicago Reinsdorfs get to exercise their “thrifty” side, and bring in a LH DH on the cheap. I would have preferred Yanagita, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be posted.

4.       Jose Abreu 2/$30MM. He’s going to be here anyway, whether Ron likes it or not.

5.       Shelby Miller or some other veteran bum 1/$2MM + an option. [Shrugs.] Eat them innings until Kopech shows up, I guess.

 

I’m guessing the salaries add up to: $70MM existing +  $22MM +  $18MM  +  $2MM +  $15MM + $2MM =  $129MM-ish on OD.

 

My working hypothesis is that no Boras client will come here. I also think that Wheeler's market will be too rich for the Reinsdorfs.  I also think that with a top-heavy/shallow system, any trades to spruce up the roster, and/or close any holes, and/or repair any underperformances by the five so mentioned above will have to come AFTER the injured/underperforming pieces in MiLB get healthy and re-establish their prospect value.

 

[Edit] Carry on...

There is zero chance Puig gets anything close to that figure.  MLBTR is predicting he gets 1/$8M and while I think that’s light, I honestly don’t see him getting more than 2/$24M max.  Dude is just not very good and has a cancerous attitude on top.

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Puig is a bigger whackjob than Parkman. Not needed here. 

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1 hour ago, wsd said:

He's not lying just for twitter love, someone is def feeding him info and he's not intentionally making anything up... but I have reason to believe he hasn't been very accurate of late.  

I haven't heard anything and won't for at least a few weeks I'd imagine.  Free agency is a day old and Boras controls the market this winter, so I'm assuming it's going to be slow and torturous.  I wouldn't publicize info even if I did have though unless I know the ink is dry, no offense to you guys.  Last thing I want is to F up an opportunity for the Sox to get better.  I think we are all happy with this offseason though and that doesn't mean Rendon/Stras/Cole, at least not right now.  

I skimmed the last few pages of this thread this afternoon and a lot of the acquisition combos you guys have thrown out seem totally plausible/doable to me.  No excuses anymore.  Can't have any Ervin Santana type signings anymore, it's go time.

Also next year I would be ALL IN on signing Mookie.  Give him a blank check and I'm not kidding 

 

Mookie may get 350m next year, I don't think we kick the tires even. I think we are gonna sign safe guys to safe deals that won't hamstring us. This off season won't be a wreck, but probably not epic either. I think we end up with Ryu or Keuchel for instance. I think we sign Edwin Encarnacion to a 1 yr deal and not Grandal, or maybe we get Moose on a two year deal. I think we'd all like to be wrong about the pessimism but it's there for a reason. 

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Betts will be JUST 28 at the beginning of the 2021 season.

That said, it's going to take a helluva lot going wrong in 2020 to make JR so desperate he's willing to roll the dice on a mega-contract like Betts to "save the rebuild."

If they're not moving forwards from this point...they're going in a reverse or neutral direction, and that's just not good enough when everything simply HAS to be targeting competing in the second half of 2020 (if they're arguably close enough at the Trade Deadline) or certainly no later than Opening Day, 2021.

Signing Betts means you pretty much have to forget about keeping Giolito, Moncada and Robert, because you already have Jimenez on the books long-term as well.

 

If we remove his 10.4 season....just for "downside" analysis, and look at his other four most recent seasons and average them out, it gives you a 6.25 fWAR.

Let's just call it 6.

Obviously, trading for him this season makes ZERO sense without an extension in mind, and that's just not going to happen unless a White Sox family member is connected by marriage to the Betts family (see Ozzie/F.Garcia.)

Is a $35-40 million per year contract realistically going to fit on any White Sox payroll of the future without inexorably leading to another version of "stars and scrubs Sox" like 2013-2016?

Does it even work at a $165-170 million payroll???

 

 

Edited by caulfield12

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I am amazed at the amount of discussion over Kiley mentioning “buzz” that the Sox are going to be active in veterans on short deals for low guarantees.  That’s not even a source.  And it’s what they did last year, so... yeah.  He didn’t rule them out going for a big piece.  Seems pretty close to a nothing burger to me.

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