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Would you trade for Mookie Betts, and what would you trade

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8 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

You're assuming 3 rookies will put up all star caliber seasons all in the same year to get anywhere close to 85 wins. 

Moncada staying healthy: +1.5 wins

Anderson staying healthy: +.5 wins

Eloy staying healthy: +.5 wins

Modest improvement from Lopez (to 3.5 WAR): +1 win

Modest improvement from Cease (to 2WAR): +1.5wins

Robert is a 2.0WAR player his rookie year replacing Leury Garcia: +1 win

Madrigal is a 1.5WAR player his rookie year replacing Sanchez: +.5wins

Kopech has a year almost identical to Cease's 2019 to replace the fifth starter nightmare: +1.5wins

Add that to last year's total and that's 80 wins and I'm basically saying all three rookies will be only incremental improvements from the guys they are replacing. This is with zero improvement from Eloy or Moncada, just them staying healthy and producing what they did in 2019 over 160 games. That's within a shout of 85 wins.

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I know you're going to debate that projection and try minimize those gains, but that's kind of my point in acquiring Betts. We go from debating whether this is an 80 or 85 win team to debating whether this is a 90 or 95 win team. And its almost impossible to imagine Betts not having a knock-on effect with his glove and bat that makes the whole a few wins better.

All for the price of a bat-only player who doesn't have a position and some prospects? It's just a no-brainer. That's an expenses paid ticket to the playoffs for the price of a handful of prospects. I wouldn't give up Robert or anything obviously.

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4 hours ago, 3500S said:

I know you're going to debate that projection and try minimize those gains, but that's kind of my point in acquiring Betts. We go from debating whether this is an 80 or 85 win team to debating whether this is a 90 or 95 win team. And its almost impossible to imagine Betts not having a knock-on effect with his glove and bat that makes the whole a few wins better.

All for the price of a bat-only player who doesn't have a position and some prospects? It's just a no-brainer. That's an expenses paid ticket to the playoffs for the price of a handful of prospects. I wouldn't give up Robert or anything obviously.

Why would Boston trade a top 5 player in the game for what you perceive as a bat-only player and some prospects. They will keep Betts and make a run at another title with the hope hr resigns. If they are convinced he won't resign they will want MLB talent for him. My guess, if they trade him, it will be for another MLB ready player who has a contract a team wants to unload or one they can't resign.  

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10 hours ago, 3500S said:

Adding Robert, Madrigal and Kopech to replace Leury Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez and Odrisamer Despaigne/Ross Detwiler/whatever is a significant bump alone. All you'd need after that is for Moncada, Eloy and Anderson just to stay healthy all year and for Cease and Lopez to make incremental, modest improvements. I can do the accounting on this line 

I think you are correct.  We will have some who think the additions of Robert, Madrigal and Kopech won't impact wins by 15 additional wins... but I don't think you are far off at 85.  Now add 2 starters one of which is TOR...RF and DH...couple RP and you compete with our division rivals.  In fact...we would probably be favored.

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5 hours ago, 3500S said:

Moncada staying healthy: +1.5 wins

Anderson staying healthy: +.5 wins

Eloy staying healthy: +.5 wins

Modest improvement from Lopez (to 3.5 WAR): +1 win

Modest improvement from Cease (to 2WAR): +1.5wins

Robert is a 2.0WAR player his rookie year replacing Leury Garcia: +1 win

Madrigal is a 1.5WAR player his rookie year replacing Sanchez: +.5wins

Kopech has a year almost identical to Cease's 2019 to replace the fifth starter nightmare: +1.5wins

Add that to last year's total and that's 80 wins and I'm basically saying all three rookies will be only incremental improvements from the guys they are replacing. This is with zero improvement from Eloy or Moncada, just them staying healthy and producing what they did in 2019 over 160 games. That's within a shout of 85 wins.

Ok so that's 80 wins, but assumes no one get's hurt.  That's just not likely.  For the most part I agree that they are in the 78-82 win realm for next year if they just stand pat.  But I don't see them getting to 90 wins with just one player.  Mookie get's them to mid 80's.  That's not worth giving up prospects for.

They're better off getting Marcell Ozuna and keeping their prospects.  

Edited by ChiSox1917

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8 hours ago, poppysox said:

I think you are correct.  We will have some who think the additions of Robert, Madrigal and Kopech won't impact wins by 15 additional wins... but I don't think you are far off at 85.  Now add 2 starters one of which is TOR...RF and DH...couple RP and you compete with our division rivals.  In fact...we would probably be favored.

The Twins won 101 games this year. Cleveland missed the playoffs and won 93. 

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8 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Ok so that's 80 wins, but assumes no one get's hurt.  That's just not likely.  For the most part I agree that they are in the 78-82 win realm for next year if they just stand pat.  But I don't see them getting to 90 wins with just one player.  Mookie get's them to mid 80's.  That's not worth giving up prospects for.

They're better off getting Marcell Ozuna and keeping their prospects.  

I don't mean to be too WAR reductionist but Betts has had a 10WAR season and nothing about it screamed fluke. 

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On 10/5/2019 at 5:04 PM, 3500S said:

Moncada staying healthy: +1.5 wins

Anderson staying healthy: +.5 wins

Eloy staying healthy: +.5 wins

Modest improvement from Lopez (to 3.5 WAR): +1 win

Modest improvement from Cease (to 2WAR): +1.5wins

Robert is a 2.0WAR player his rookie year replacing Leury Garcia: +1 win

Madrigal is a 1.5WAR player his rookie year replacing Sanchez: +.5wins

Kopech has a year almost identical to Cease's 2019 to replace the fifth starter nightmare: +1.5wins

Add that to last year's total and that's 80 wins and I'm basically saying all three rookies will be only incremental improvements from the guys they are replacing. This is with zero improvement from Eloy or Moncada, just them staying healthy and producing what they did in 2019 over 160 games. That's within a shout of 85 wins.

Moncada, Giolito, Colome, Abreu, McCann, Anderson are all going to repeat their numbers?

With those 400+ babip numbers?

If White Sox history proves anything, it is never to project or forecast expected results with a pen.  Always write with a pencil (see Palka, Alonso, Herrera and Castillo this year.)

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Moncada, Giolito, Colome, Abreu, McCann, Anderson are all going to repeat their numbers?

With those 400+ babip numbers?

If White Sox history proves anything, it is never to project or forecast expected results with a pen.  Always write with a pencil (see Palka, Alonso, Herrera and Castillo this year.)

Is it really outside the realm of possibility for young players like Moncada, Giolito and Eloy to be even better? Look the point I'm making here is not whether the young players will improve or to what extent they may. My point is adding Betts significantly lowers the extent the Sox need to rely on those improvements in order to make the playoffs next year.

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Trading significant future assets for a one year shot at the playoffs (without an extension) is how you lose a fanbase and end up in a perpetual rebuild. 

And Hahn is not going to stick his neck out on the chopping block, anyway.   He's all about risk mitigation. 

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Trading significant future assets for a one year shot at the playoffs (without an extension) is how you lose a fanbase and end up in a perpetual rebuild. 

And Hahn is not going to stick his neck out on the chopping block, anyway.   He's all about risk mitigation. 

This is not Jeff Samardizja, it one of the five best players in baseball. I think many people underrate the impact he would have.

Even if I looked at things glass-half empty I cant see the Sox missing the playoffs with Betts (and just a few modest free agents) and would not be even slightly surprised if they contended strongly for a title. Really in baseball if you can make the postseason you can win it all, anyone who wins their division is a World Series shot.

Edited by 3500S

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56 minutes ago, 3500S said:

This is not Jeff Samardizja, it one of the five best players in baseball. I think many people underrate the impact he would have.

Even if I looked at things glass-half empty I cant see the Sox missing the playoffs with Betts (and just a few modest free agents) and would not be even slightly surprised if they contended strongly for a title. Really in baseball if you can make the postseason you can win it all, anyone who wins their division is a World Series shot.

Not without two the addition of 3-4 fWAR veteran starters and some certainty at the back of that bullpen.

Betts has a lot more tools than Harper, who also put up a 10 season, but there’s a huge problem.

Let’s put down Betts for 30.6/4 seasons, you get 7.65 fWAR as a reasonable projection.

 

The Red Sox will have at least 8-10 teams who desperately need a player like that to put them over the top for a single season run at it but can’t dream of signing him to a $400+ million extension.

Yet those teams have a lot more prospect capital to work with.  Think of all those teams like the Rays, Twins, A’s, Indians, Padres...the list goes on and on.    The White Sox aren’t going to build their future around Madrigal, for example, then turn around and burn it all down.

Even if Betts gets you to .500, on top of his 2020 salary, you’re still having to spend at least $125-175 million on pitching.  You don’t have a 2B (trading Madrigal+), so now you need to identify a Gennett/Schoop type correctly, you can’t rely on Collins to succeed and you’re also spending more to get a veteran DH in the Smoak/Adams mold and you’re still relying on McCann’s season not being a historical anomaly.

As much as we believe in the potential of the young starters, we’re a second TJ from Giolito, Cease or Kopech from pushing back the rebuild yet another year...even with two veteran starters, because one of those guys will fall back from historical performance and god only knows what we’ll get from Lopez.  We can’t begin to count on Rodon or Dunning, either.
 

 

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56 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Not without two the addition of 3-4 fWAR veteran starters and some certainty at the back of that bullpen.

Betts has a lot more tools than Harper, who also put up a 10 season, but there’s a huge problem.

Let’s put down Betts for 30.6/4 seasons, you get 7.65 fWAR as a reasonable projection.

 

The Red Sox will have at least 8-10 teams who desperately need a player like that to put them over the top for a single season run at it but can’t dream of signing him to a $400+ million extension.

Yet those teams have a lot more prospect capital to work with.  Think of all those teams like the Rays, Twins, A’s, Indians, Padres...the list goes on and on.    The White Sox aren’t going to build their future around Madrigal, for example, then turn around and burn it all down.

Even if Betts gets you to .500, on top of his 2020 salary, you’re still having to spend at least $125-175 million on pitching.  You don’t have a 2B (trading Madrigal+), so now you need to identify a Gennett/Schoop type correctly, you can’t rely on Collins to succeed and you’re also spending more to get a veteran DH in the Smoak/Adams mold and you’re still relying on McCann’s season not being a historical anomaly.

As much as we believe in the potential of the young starters, we’re a second TJ from Giolito, Cease or Kopech from pushing back the rebuild yet another year...even with two veteran starters, because one of those guys will fall back from historical performance and god only knows what we’ll get from Lopez.  We can’t begin to count on Rodon or Dunning, either.
 

 

If you believe all of this the rebuild is doomed anyways in your eyes. That is actually a pretty valid perspective and if you feel that way you clearly wouldn't want Betts, Im a bit more optimistic.

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1 hour ago, 3500S said:

If you believe all of this the rebuild is doomed anyways in your eyes. That is actually a pretty valid perspective and if you feel that way you clearly wouldn't want Betts, Im a bit more optimistic.

I just don't think Kopech can be protected from his own worst impulses and not end up getting hurt again trying to fire baseballs through the wall...right now, so much is hinging on him, until FA spending on pitching proves otherwise. 

Edited by caulfield12

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This Betts talk is insanity.  I was one of the few who wasn’t theoretically against a Machado trade a year ago, but our system actually had some SP & OF depth at the time.  Due to injuries and underperformance, we simply don’t have the prospect capital it’s going to take to land Mookie, who is an even better player than Manny and whose cost will most certainly be more.

When it comes to trades this offseason, Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn, Kopech, & Cease should 100% be off limits.  That doesn’t really leave much, with Stiever & Walker probably being our best trade chips (assuming Dunning’s value is suppressed due to injury).  I just don’t see a matchup here even if we were prepared to take a big risk and unload decent prospects for one year of Betts.

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56 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This Betts talk is insanity.  I was one of the few who wasn’t theoretically against a Machado trade a year ago, but our system actually had some SP & OF depth at the time.  Due to injuries and underperformance, we simply don’t have the prospect capital it’s going to take to land Mookie, who is an even better player than Manny and whose cost will most certainly be more.

When it comes to trades this offseason, Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn, Kopech, & Cease should 100% be off limits.  That doesn’t really leave much, with Stiever & Walker probably being our best trade chips (assuming Dunning’s value is suppressed due to injury).  I just don’t see a matchup here even if we were prepared to take a big risk and unload decent prospects for one year of Betts.

Agree as does MLB Trade Rumors. They project Betts to make $28Mil in arbitration so he will cost a lot both ways. 

Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December.  Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer.  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Agree as does MLB Trade Rumors. They project Betts to make $28Mil in arbitration so he will cost a lot both ways. 

Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December.  Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer.  

 

 

I forgot about that Goldschmidt trade and yeah no fucking thanks on Mookie.

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29 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The Cardinals won their division.

They also changed managers late in 2018 and went from worst to first in defense.

Goldschmidt didn’t even have that strong a season by his usual standards.

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So cease/Collins and Sosa? I’m interested. Cards also signed Goldschmidt long term.

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6 minutes ago, Tony said:

If the sox are willing to give Betts an offer he simply can't turn down, then I pull the trigger. 

If they want to play the Machado game, I'm out. 

I'm totally with you. I am not in this for a "he may love playing for Ricky so much that he just can't imagine playing elsewhere!"

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3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The Cardinals won their division.

And they were coming off an 88 win season.  Much easier to trade away cost controlled talent when you have a playoff caliber core in place.

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