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Predict the 1st Free Agent Signed

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2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

The Sox should have the upperhand in negotations with Jose.  The man wants to stay.  Paying him over $20M per year would be insane.  

I'm guessing they'll offer him 2/40 and a mutual option for a third year at $23M. They may cave and give him a guaranteed 3/55. Given that he'll probably be a .770–.830 OPS for the next two years, I think that's reasonable. Jose is worth more to the Sox than he would be to any old team on the FA market.

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2 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

I'm guessing they'll offer him 2/40 and a mutual option for a third year at $23M. They may cave and give him a guaranteed 3/55. Given that he'll probably be a .770–.830 OPS for the next two years, I think that's reasonable. Jose is worth more to the Sox than he would be to any old team on the FA market.

Gosh that's a ton of money for a bat only first baseman.

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19 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I'm not so sure.  Seems like the organization and fanbase are ready to move on from him, so a trade would be the most likely outcome if his option was picked up.  Would the Cubs really get much in return for 1 year of Quintana at $10.5 mil?  Honest question.  No GM is going to look at him as a TOR or difference-making starter at this point in his career.  He's more like a low-end No. 3 or No. 4 guy.  Is he really that much better than, say, Nova right now?  And how much is Nova going to get in free agency?

Yes, he's much better than Nova.  And yes, the Cubs would be able to get something for him.  And no, the fanbases opinion is rather irrelevant.  

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7 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Gosh that's a ton of money for a bat only first baseman.

Dude put up an .834 OPS and led the league in RBIs this year. He's also the face of the franchise and has been the only consistently good hitter on this team over the past five or so years. I wouldn't want to commit more than three years to him, but you have to pay him reasonably.

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4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yes, he's much better than Nova.  And yes, the Cubs would be able to get something for him.  And no, the fanbases opinion is rather irrelevant.  

You say that like it's a fact when it's not.  The Cubs would get something, but not an impactful something.  Front offices do care about their fanbase, but even if they didn't, the Cubs front office is ready to start reshaping their roster.  I'd bet good money that Quintana does not throw another pitch for the Cubs. 

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There is no way I want Nova back. Dude isn’t good and there is no upside there.

I’d take Gio Gonzalez any day of the week over Nova, whom I think won’t cost that much more.

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5 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Dude put up an .834 OPS and led the league in RBIs this year. He's also the face of the franchise and has been the only consistently good hitter on this team over the past five or so years. I wouldn't want to commit more than three years to him, but you have to pay him reasonably.

Bat only 1B in their 30's aren't getting 20 million a year. 

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5 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

You say that like it's a fact when it's not.  The Cubs would get something, but not an impactful something.  Front offices do care about their fanbase, but even if they didn't, the Cubs front office is ready to start reshaping their roster.  I'd bet good money that Quintana does not throw another pitch for the Cubs. 

This isn't a Cubs board so this is the last comment I will make on the topic.

Jose Quintana provided fWAR of 3.5 this season.  Good for 14th in the National League.

Cubs fans may not like him, but he is still a VERY valuable pitcher at a net cost of $10.5M.  

I will say it again - Jose Quintana's option is about as big of a no brainer as they get.  He may have thrown his last pitcher as Cub, but it won't be because the Cubs didn't pick up his option.  

/End of discussion. 

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11 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Dude put up an .834 OPS and led the league in RBIs this year. He's also the face of the franchise and has been the only consistently good hitter on this team over the past five or so years. I wouldn't want to commit more than three years to him, but you have to pay him reasonably.

Jose would be very lucky to get over 2/$30M on the open market. He wants to stay here.  Paying him more than that would be very stupid.  

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1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Bat only 1B in their 30's aren't getting 20 million a year. 

The Sox are going to have to pay him more than $16M per year. So if not $20M, you can count on $18M per year if they want him back.

 

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10 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Dude put up an .834 OPS and led the league in RBIs this year. He's also the face of the franchise and has been the only consistently good hitter on this team over the past five or so years. I wouldn't want to commit more than three years to him, but you have to pay him reasonably.

 

Just now, Black_Jack29 said:

The Sox are going to have to pay him more than $16M per year. So if not $20M, you can count on $18M per year if they want him back.

 

I love the idea of offereing him a QO... if he takes it good, if not, he walks.  I don't really want to lock into 2 years guaranteed with him and 3 years guaranteed would be a travesty

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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Jose would be very lucky to get over 2/$30M on the open market. He wants to stay here.  Paying him more than that would be very stupid.  

So they're going to knock him down from $16M per year to $15M per year? After the performance that he put up this year? I doubt that.

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3 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

The Sox are going to have to pay him more than $16M per year. So if not $20M, you can count on $18M per year if they want him back.

 

He can walk then.  He's simply not worth anything more than 14 or 15.  He's not exactly JDM at the plate and the Sox would be stupid to give him that.

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4 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

 

I love the idea of offereing him a QO... if he takes it good, if not, he walks.  I don't really want to lock into 2 years guaranteed with him and 3 years guaranteed would be a travesty

I would absolutely lock him into two years. They already have holes at DH and RF, and they're trying to compete next season.

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Jose Abreu is 1.5 WAR player.  He is pretty poor at 1B. I expect them to resign him and you can definitely do worse.  But paying him $20M over 2 or 3 seasons would be insane.

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3 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

He can walk then.  He's simply not worth anything more than 14 or 15.  He's not exactly JDM at the plate and the Sox would be stupid to give him that.

If the Sox could find somebody to replace his production at that price, then great. But then they need still need offensive production at RF and DH. They're not filling all three of those offensive holes, so I don't see that happening.

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4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Jose Abreu is 1.5 WAR player.  He is pretty poor at 1B. I expect them to resign him and you can definitely do worse.  But paying him $20M over 2 or 3 seasons would be insane.

Weren't you the one who was suggesting the Sox guarantee Rodon $6M–$8M per year for the next few years when he won't be able to throw a ball until next summer, and nobody knows whether or not he'll be able to pitch effectively?

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12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

This isn't a Cubs board so this is the last comment I will make on the topic.

Jose Quintana provided fWAR of 3.5 this season.  Good for 14th in the National League.

Cubs fans may not like him, but he is still a VERY valuable pitcher at a net cost of $10.5M.  

I will say it again - Jose Quintana's option is about as big of a no brainer as they get.  He may have thrown his last pitcher as Cub, but it won't be because the Cubs didn't pick up his option.  

/End of discussion. 

And baseball reference has Q's WAR at 1.2 and Nova at 2.1.

My point wasn't to say that Nova is better than Quintana.  I don't think he is.  My point is that Q isn't as big of a value at $10.5 mil next year as you are making it out to be.  Not after the year he just had.

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1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

And baseball reference has Q's WAR at 1.2 and Nova at 2.1.

My point wasn't to say that Nova is better than Quintana.  I don't think he is.  My point is that Q isn't as big of a value at $10.5 mil next year as you are making it out to be.  Not after the year he just had.

bWAR is trash.  

Happy to wager any dollar amount you'd like that the Cubs pick up Q's option.  

Edited by ChiSox59

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12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

bWAR is trash.  

Happy to wager any dollar amount you'd like that the Cubs pick up Q's option.  

I'm not guaranteeing that they won't pick up his option.  I'm saying that (1) it's not a lock that they pick up his option, and (2) if they do, they will trade him and the return will be underwhelming.

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2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

 

Dont want to take this conversation too off topic but how anyone can argue that a guy who spent the highest percentage of revenue on payroll in baseball for almost a 20 year window is cheap? Its laughable. 

Sorry, but late to the party.  Where is the support that the Sox spent the above?  Maybe it's true, but is that because they didn't spend in the draft, scouting, managers and data analysis?

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10 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I'm not guaranteeing that they won't pick up his option.  I'm saying that (1) it's not a lock that they pick up his option, and (2) if they do, they will trade him and the return will be underwhelming.

It is a lock, though.  I do agree that a trade probably wouldn't return anything super exciting, because Q is paid perhaps just slightly less than what he's worth on an AAV basis.  But getting something in return is better than getting nothing in return.

Anyways, going to stop posting on this topic because it has virtually nothing to do with White Sox baseball.  

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

The NBA also doesn't have a hard cap, they have a soft cap with a luxury tax that teams can go over if they are signing their own players or making trades using trade exemptions. The Bulls have also paid the Luxury tax exactly 2 times since it was instituted nearly 20 years ago. Counting last year, 19 teams have paid it at least 3 times, putting the Bulls in the bottom 1/3 of the league, tied with such big spenders as the Jazz, Grizzlies, and Kings. This year, the 76ers will likely pay it, putting another team past the Bulls. 

You can go over the cap to resign your own players or veteran minimums. You can't just spend on non-vet minimum players. 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

They won't get much but the trick is it's not zero. The right move would be to pick up his option, make their run at Cole, and if they're able to sign him - have already talked to teams about trading Quintana for a pittance. That way, they have the pitcher and can use him if needed, but if they land the big FA they know he's movable. 

The cubs are not signing cole. They are trying to cut salary but you think they're going to give a picture 30+ million a year? 

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