Japanese Slugger to be Posted?

[caulfield12]

From recent Vince Duber article at nbcsportschicago

“He's a quality bat in Japan, but he's really not the elite bat," Allen said. "The whole question is how much of his power is going to play in the United States, and the big question is how is he going to adapt to seeing 100-mile-an-hour fastballs, which he hasn't seen regularly because very, very few pitchers in Japan throw that hard. And he's 27 years old. So it's like taking a guy who's basically played college-level ball most of his life and suddenly at 27 he's in the major leagues.

"(Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei) Ohtani was a bit of an outlier. There are hitters who are that good in Japan. Tsutsugo is not quite one of them. He is relatively adaptable. In other words, I expect him to make some adjustments to MLB, I expect him to find some solutions to MLB. But I also don't see him getting a guaranteed contract.

"He's flexibile, adaptable, good leader, good teammate. But if you're looking at the skills, I don't think he's going to blow anybody away with his skills.

"My guess is he'll agree to a minor league contract, he'll get a camp invite and that he'll win a major league job out of camp because he's just a really useful guy to have. But nobody's going to be throwing guaranteed money at him. If they do, I would be surprised."

[Eminor3rd]

On 10/10/2019 at 4:29 PM, caulfield12 said:

From recent Vince Duber article at nbcsportschicago

“He's a quality bat in Japan, but he's really not the elite bat," Allen said. "The whole question is how much of his power is going to play in the United States, and the big question is how is he going to adapt to seeing 100-mile-an-hour fastballs, which he hasn't seen regularly because very, very few pitchers in Japan throw that hard. And he's 27 years old. So it's like taking a guy who's basically played college-level ball most of his life and suddenly at 27 he's in the major leagues.

"(Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei) Ohtani was a bit of an outlier. There are hitters who are that good in Japan. Tsutsugo is not quite one of them. He is relatively adaptable. In other words, I expect him to make some adjustments to MLB, I expect him to find some solutions to MLB. But I also don't see him getting a guaranteed contract.

"He's flexibile, adaptable, good leader, good teammate. But if you're looking at the skills, I don't think he's going to blow anybody away with his skills.

"My guess is he'll agree to a minor league contract, he'll get a camp invite and that he'll win a major league job out of camp because he's just a really useful guy to have. But nobody's going to be throwing guaranteed money at him. If they do, I would be surprised."

This is basically all true. How good he is will depend on how he adjusts. Very difficult to guess how that will turn out. He’s a good talent, not a can’t-miss one, so you’re gambling on his adaptability. 

i like low cost gambles, and we have a black hole in one of our OF corners, so I’m into it. And I think players with good plate discipline can figure out how to sit on fastballs of any velocity. But I think a scout could take a good look and decide they’re not feeling it and that wouldn’t be surprising either. 

The “college-level ball” thing is a bit ignorant. Doesn’t really make sense at all, in fact. Top college programs will often feature better velo than you’ll see in Japan, actually, but the command and control will be way, WAY worse. It’s a substantially different set of pros and cons. Short-sighted and naive to think you could just fit it into a sliding spectrum based on what you see in affiliated stateside baseball.  

Edited October 12, 2019 by Eminor3rd

[Sarava]

4 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

This is basically all true. How good he is will depend on how he adjusts. Very difficult to guess how that will turn out. He’s a good talent, not a can’t-miss one, so you’re gambling on his adaptability. 

i like low cost gambles, and we have a black hole in one of our OF corners, so I’m into it. And I think players with good plate discipline can figure out how to sit on fastballs of any velocity. But I think a scout could take a good look and decide they’re not feeling it and that wouldn’t be surprising either. 

The “college-level ball” thing is a bit ignorant. Doesn’t really make sense at all, in fact. Top college programs will often feature better velo than you’ll see in Japan, actually, but the command and control will be way, WAY worse. It’s a substantially different set of pros and cons. Short-sighted and naive to think you could just fit it into a sliding spectrum based on what you see in affiliated stateside baseball.  

I would be ok with this if they signed Strasburg or Cole. Then I would understand the budget being stretched and thus going for a cheaper gamble at RF being worthwhile. If the SP they sign is Wheeler or cheaper, then I would expect more resources being throw at RF for a more sure thing.

[Eminor3rd]

3 hours ago, Sarava said:

I would be ok with this if they signed Strasburg or Cole. Then I would understand the budget being stretched and thus going for a cheaper gamble at RF being worthwhile. If the SP they sign is Wheeler or cheaper, then I would expect more resources being throw at RF for a more sure thing.

Yeah -- if they decide to "go for it," I agree that that is the right strategy, I think as much because of what is available on the market as anything else. In terms of RF, there are really just a handful of DH types available, each with their own warts. The pitching, though, is actually pretty deep and features some high-end talent. Might as well spend on the good stuff and take a cheaper, upside gamble on the the flawed stuff.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah -- if they decide to "go for it," I agree that that is the right strategy, I think as much because of what is available on the market as anything else. In terms of RF, there are really just a handful of DH types available, each with their own warts. The pitching, though, is actually pretty deep and features some high-end talent. Might as well spend on the good stuff and take a cheaper, upside gamble on the the flawed stuff.

Fully on board with this strategy. Especially loading up on “more” than we need for pitchers.

[poppysox]

3 hours ago, Sarava said:

zI would be ok with this if they signed Strasburg or Cole. Then I would understand the budget being stretched and thus going for a cheaper gamble at RF being worthwhile. If the SP they sign is Wheeler or cheaper, then I would expect more resources being throw at RF for a more sure thing.

I think your take on this is right.

[glangon]

On ‎10‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 11:45 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

Let’s maybe set our expectations a bit higher.

Ok, he can't be any worse at bat than Engel and Cordell