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Jack Parkman

Will Strasburg opt out? thread

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16 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Let all the other teams argue and negotiate over Cole and Strasburg while we swoop in and lock up Wheeler. 

I honestly think our plan will be aggressive pursuits of Wheeler & Bumgarner right from the get go and not ever getting involving in the Cole & Strasburg sweepstakes.

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2 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I can't see the Sox paying for Strasburg or Cole.  I'm not in love with Wheeler and his 1.3 WHIP and pedestrian ERA, though he is certainly an upgrade, I honestly don't understand all the love for him.

Ryu maybe a good target.  A bit older and injury concerns, thought that may keep his price down.  His results have been nothing short of great.  I think he or Keuchel are much more realistic targets.  Though who knows, maybe the Dodgers decide they want to keep him, then he all of a sudden becomes very expensive. 

Psychological defense mechanisms are powerful things.

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1 minute ago, turnin' two said:

I can't see the Sox paying for Strasburg or Cole.  I'm not in love with Wheeler and his 1.3 WHIP and pedestrian ERA, though he is certainly an upgrade, I honestly don't understand all the love for him.

Ryu maybe a good target.  A bit older and injury concerns, thought that may keep his price down.  His results have been nothing short of great.  I think he or Keuchel are much more realistic targets.  Though who knows, maybe the Dodgers decide they want to keep him, then he all of a sudden becomes very expensive. 

I wouldn't touch Keuchel tbh.  He's going to want a 3 or 4 year deal and he's been trending down for a couple years.

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4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

If he opts out, Give me Strasburg. Let everyone else waste their time on Gerrit Cole. 

Completely agree. 

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3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

He's been healthy for 2 seasons. I'd rather have Strasburg on a 5 year $28-30 AAV deal than Cole on a 7-8 year $32-35 AAV deal, despite Cole being 2 years younger. 

He pitched 130 inning last year and reached only 200 IP once before this year. As for this year, when it's all said and done, he's probably putting in 250 IP this year alone. History suggests he's liability to stay healthy, and the added toll on his arm from the extended workload this year is a red flag.

That said, I do agree 5/$160M would be the max anyone should be giving him. I don't him know who's going to be desperate enough to go beyond that, and that contract would be disaster waiting to happen.

 

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19 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I wouldn't touch Keuchel tbh.  He's going to want a 3 or 4 year deal and he's been trending down for a couple years.

After last offseason he clearly isn't going to hold out for 4 years if a good solid 2 year deal is on the table, and while he's not the same pitcher he was in his cy young year, he's been quite consistent over the last 3.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

After last offseason he clearly isn't going to hold out for 4 years if a good solid 2 year deal is on the table, and while he's not the same pitcher he was in his cy young year, he's been quite consistent over the last 3.

I agree. And him performing that well with the insane HR environment pushing his HR rate to career highs, I’m more convinced he can sustain. 
 

But we will see what plays out. More suitors this year, but way more pitchers.

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3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

i am sure he will opt out and sign a record setting deal with the White Sox. It's pretty much guaranteed. 

That's excellent news.🙂

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7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

After last offseason he clearly isn't going to hold out for 4 years if a good solid 2 year deal is on the table, and while he's not the same pitcher he was in his cy young year, he's been quite consistent over the last 3.

He was terrible this year outside of a lucky ERA. 

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4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He was terrible this year outside of a lucky ERA. 

Considering the struggles we’ve seen from mid season acquisitions I think it was pretty good.

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If it costs 5/155 to get Strasburg you do it and don't think twice. If he really wants to stay in Washington or go to California you really can't do anything about that. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If it costs 5/155 to get Strasburg you do it and don't think twice. If he really wants to stay in Washington or go to California you really can't do anything about that. 

Ah we are up to 5/155 already.

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 I'd take Cole because he pitches in the AL. You know what you are getting.

They wont get either one.  I just don't see them forking out for one guy that only plays every 5th day.

Strasburg  would somehow get that Sox injury curse. 

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

Ah we are up to 5/155 already.

That's about as high as it's going to go. 

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45 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's about as high as it's going to go. 

That’s as high as it will go but it’s also a deal you don’t “think twice” about

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7 minutes ago, bmags said:

That’s as high as it will go but it’s also a deal you don’t “think twice” about

Yeah, because they really need that TOR arm to take pressure off of Giolito and Kopech. It also invigorates the fanbase and proves that they aren't half-assing the rebuild. After the Samson comments this offseason is really important. They absolutely have to land a bigger name this winter. The Sox have 3 holes on their roster and this fills one  of them. They really only need to spend a lotbfor a TOR starter and a RF. They can be smart about DH. 

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Wouldn't get my hopes up on Strasburg. Guessing Nats will tak a few years on with a nice bump in AAV. Doubt they will let him walk, especially given WS money and likely loss of Rendon. Wheeler is the target.

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Ryu is a Boras client.  Boras spinning his bad injury history as a low mileage arm and wants long years at high dollar.  Won't be a quick sign.  Keuchel also a Boras guy still talks like he thinks he deserves a huge deal.  Boras previously inferred he had multi year deals that Boras was okay with but his client said no.  Again probably a later signing.

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24 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Ryu is a Boras client.  Boras spinning his bad injury history as a low mileage arm and wants long years at high dollar.  Won't be a quick sign.  Keuchel also a Boras guy still talks like he thinks he deserves a huge deal.  Boras previously inferred he had multi year deals that Boras was okay with but his client said no.  Again probably a later signing.

Couldn't you say all those things about Strasburg?

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4 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Couldn't you say all those things about Strasburg?

As far as wanting a lot of money and max years, sure.  I think his health concerns are much less than Ryu.  I think Keuchel is way overvaluing himself.  

I think the years/value of Strasburg will dwarf the other two.  Because they/agent is thinking high values, I was trying to point out they will not be quick signs in my opinion. 

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9 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Couldn't you say all those things about Strasburg?

Scott Boras is going to run this offseason. The following free agents are all Boras clients:

Cole 

Strasburg 

Ryu

Martinez 

Ozuna

And i'm pretty sure he has others free this year as well. Don't expect anything to happen until 1/15 at the earliest. Boras clients will set the market at almost every position, and especially SP. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 hour ago, Flash said:

Wouldn't get my hopes up on Strasburg. Guessing Nats will tak a few years on with a nice bump in AAV. Doubt they will let him walk, especially given WS money and likely loss of Rendon. Wheeler is the target.

A fast signing of Wheeler would make this whole offseason go down much easier.  Definitely would take the heat off some of the long drawn out signings that are a Boras trademark.

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8 hours ago, poppysox said:

A fast signing of Wheeler would make this whole offseason go down much easier.  Definitely would take the heat off some of the long drawn out signings that are a Boras trademark.

Hopefully the Yankees will target Cole. Remember they really wanted Wheeler at the deadline but the teams couldn't agree on a deal. 

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IMO, you go hard after Ryu, Wheeler, Bumm while everyone else works on Strasburg and Cole. Were not going to outbid others and I'd hate to lose out on the 2nd tier guys while we mess around with Strasburg and Cole. 

Then quickly focus on RF and DH.

I'd like for us to strike early on SP, DH, and RF. Then move focus to BP.

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8 minutes ago, Capital G said:

IMO, you go hard after Ryu, Wheeler, Bumm while everyone else works on Strasburg and Cole. Were not going to outbid others and I'd hate to lose out on the 2nd tier guys while we mess around with Strasburg and Cole. 

Then quickly focus on RF and DH.

I'd like for us to strike early on SP, DH, and RF. Then move focus to BP.

100% agree.  Make aggressive bids for Wheeler & Bumgarner right out the gate.  Have to come away with one of those guys for this be a successful offseason IMO.  As much as I’d want Cole or Strasburg, I think the process will be too risky and too drawn out.  

The second priority should be landing one of Grandal or Martinez.  Those guys are true impact bats and none of the other guys that qualify really fit.  RF will definitely be addressed, but I don’t think there is a major free agent fit there and will require more creativity.

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