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Zack Wheeler Thread

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23 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Screenshot_20191121-141544_Facebook.jpg

Jaysus.

I hate to see this; I prefer the... 

"Wheeler's market is moving slowly."

*1 hour later*

"White Sox sign Wheeler"

 

This 95% shit makes me say :(

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're missing the 10-15 minimum salary guys that fill out the roster. They were just about $70 after Abreu, assuming no Yolmer and counting those guys. This pushes them to nearly $90.

I think it is closer to $82-85M with min guys and no Yolmer, but picking hairs at that point.  

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2 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Does spotrac not account for that?  They have us pegged at 64 before adding Grandal.

Not currently as those guys are not under contract until their contracts are renewed in January or so. They're listed as - on spotrac right now.

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I'm not understanding this urgency to get 2 vs 1.  Get the best one you can pay for and I'm fine with Giollito, FA, Cease, Lopez, and Kopech (with whatever fill in you want early in the year) 

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2 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

I'm not understanding this urgency to get 2 vs 1.  Get the best one you can pay for and I'm fine with Giollito, FA, Cease, Lopez, and Kopech (with whatever fill in you want early in the year) 

Well, for me, it's because I would much rather not have the name lopez listed in my starting 5...

Edited by Kiebs13

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4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jaysus.

I hate to see this; I prefer the... 

"Wheeler's market is moving slowly."

*1 hour later*

"White Sox sign Wheeler"

 

This 95% shit makes me say :(

Agreed.  I truly enjoyed the WTF moment when my phone alerted me of the Grandal signing.  They do better more under the radar...but then again maybe that will be another one for Rick to blow up..."The White Sox will never be seriously linked to a player on twitter and then sign him"  

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2 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

Well, for me, it's because I would much rather not have the name lopez listed in my starting 5...

No chance should the Sox give up on Reynaldo Lopez.

Despite his ERA and FIP not being great, he increased his K-rate (generated more swings and misses, just inconsistently from start to start) and decreased his walk rate. He is trending in the right direction. They need to untap the potential he shows in his huge games every single start, but the talent is very clearly there.

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2 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

Well, for me, it's because I would much rather not have the name lopez listed in my starting 5...

Yah, I mean, who would want a 25 year old coming off back to back seasons of being a top 15 pitcher in the AL in their rotation? 

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Just now, wegner said:

Agreed.  I truly enjoyed the WTF moment when my phone alerted me of the Grandal signing.  They do better more under the radar...but then again maybe that will be another one for Rick to blow up..."The White Sox will never be seriously linked to a player on twitter and then sign him"  

I think Rick and Kenny enjoyed that moment as well. 

I actually enjoyed that much more than a build up to a signing, followed by the signing.

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6 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

Well, for me, it's because I would much rather not have the name lopez listed in my starting 5...

That and depth is extremely important.

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No chance should the Sox give up on Reynaldo Lopez.

Despite his ERA and FIP not being great, he increased his K-rate (generated more swings and misses, just inconsistently from start to start) and decreased his walk rate. He is trending in the right direction. They need to untap the potential he shows in his huge games every single start, but the talent is very clearly there.

other than faseball velocity his metrics are flat out awful. awful spin rate on all of his pitchers. below average on literally everything.

image.png

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5 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

Well, for me, it's because I would much rather not have the name lopez listed in my starting 5...

I'm fairly disappointed in the progression he has made, but no way in hell do you give up on that kind of an arm costing nickels this early.   

If he flops again this  coming season, then yes you start considering it. 

 

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Yeah i'm fine trading / relegating Lopez to depth. He has no above-average pitches and control issues.

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I mean, who would want a 25 year old coming off back to back seasons of being a top 15 pitcher in the AL in their rotation? 

To be fair, you should be sorting by all pitchers - not just qualified. He's 25th when you look at all arms.

I'm not sure I'm ready to praise his past two seasons, but I definitely think there is big reason to have optimism pertaining to his development. The Sox seem to have found his driving force of success but getting that out of him consistently has been the challenge.

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1 minute ago, Kiebs13 said:

other than faseball velocity his metrics are flat out awful. awful spin rate on all of his pitchers. below average on literally everything.

image.png

And yet, a guy who is below average on almost everything, who is young, cheap, and throws 180+ innings is a 2 fWAR pitcher and a great thing to have at the back side of a rotation.

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

And yet, a guy who is below average on almost everything, who is young, cheap, and throws 180+ innings is a 2 fWAR pitcher and a great thing to have at the back side of a rotation.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/active-spin


267th in baseball in average active spin rate.

 

Unless he overhauls things majorly, this is just who he is imo.

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1 minute ago, Kiebs13 said:

other than faseball velocity his metrics are flat out awful. awful spin rate on all of his pitchers. below average on literally everything.

image.png

On a start to start basis, this just wasn't true though.

His fastball spin rate was very erratic. He had elite fastball starts where his spin rate was high, his vertical movement was top of the league, and he generated elite swing and miss percentages. In other starts, he got under his fastball and off-speed stuff, leaving a much flatter plane on the pitch with a much lower spin rate. 

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4 minutes ago, daggins said:

Yeah i'm fine trading / relegating Lopez to depth. He has no above-average pitches and control issues.

When his fastball is on, and he is staying on top of it and driving down (creating great back spin and very limited drop), it's elite . When he doesn't stay on top and drive through the ball, it's all velocity but not much else; and it's well below average.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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Giving up on Lopez right now is dumb as hell.  He is absolutely maddening at times, inconsistent as hell, and needs another out pitch.

He's also young and cost controlled and has shown plenty of flash.  You can do much worse than him as your 5th man.

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3 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/active-spin


267th in baseball in average active spin rate.

 

Unless he overhauls things majorly, this is just who he is imo.

I am totally ok with Lopez being the 5th starter in a rotation where he's giving me 180 innings and 2 fWAR.

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Whether or not the Sox sign Wheeler, getting out in front of the market was the correct strategy. Being the market maker and aggressive on the players you identified is a great way to approach an offseason as opposed to last years debacle. Granted, last years debacle was due in large part to who they were represented by, as well. 

Even if Wheeler signs today, I doubt Cole signs before the New Year. 

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6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I am totally ok with Lopez being the 5th starter in a rotation where he's giving me 180 innings and 2 fWAR.

This. Plus Grandal will certainly help him in framing. Can't count the number of times Lopez got screwed out of a call last season. 

Oh, and yea Cole definitely is a legit source FYI.

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1 minute ago, South Sider said:

Whether or not the Sox sign Wheeler, getting out in front of the market was the correct strategy. Being the market maker and aggressive on the players you identified is a great way to approach an offseason as opposed to last years debacle. Granted, last years debacle was due in large part to who they were represented by, as well. 

Even if Wheeler signs today, I doubt Cole signs before the New Year. 

I think last season the White Sox wanted to get their piece at their price because last year wasn't the year in which competing became the goal.

This year, I think the White Sox realize that this core has come together really nicely and that the window and opportunity are there. At that point, they need to sign impact players at whatever cost required because they realize the window is here finally and they need to maximize it.

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18 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I mean, who would want a 25 year old coming off back to back seasons of being a top 15 pitcher in the AL in their rotation? 

Reynaldo Lopez is one of the best 15 starting pitchers in the AL?

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1 minute ago, soxfan49 said:

Reynaldo Lopez is one of the best 15 starting pitchers in the AL?

He's the 15th ranked qualified starter in the AL over the past two years. You shouldn't really used qualified for that analysis though, imo.

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