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Zack Wheeler Thread

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19 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Based on MLBTR projections (I know, I know, ) the price tag on Wheeler (100 mil) is about the same as the price tag on Ryu and Keuchel (93).  Which would you rather have?  I have to say, I think I'd prefer the 2 starters to the one.  

So who are you trading?

Keuchel is trending down and Ryu is often injured.

Wheeler all day

Edited by BackDoorBreach
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15 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

So who are you trading?

Keuchel is trending down and Ryu is often injured.

Wheeler all day

All day

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15 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

So who are you trading?

Keuchel is trending down and Ryu is often injured.

Wheeler all day

No one?  Are you saying the Sox would have too many SPs?  Is that even a thing?  I think the answer there is clearly no.  

And don't Ryu and Wheeler have about the same injury history?  I mean, Wheeler is a perfectly fine answer, and I totally see how you'd pick him, but this logic seems flawed to me.

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2 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

No one?  Are you saying the Sox would have too many SPs?  Is that even a thing?  I think the answer there is clearly no.  

And don't Ryu and Wheeler have about the same injury history?  I mean, Wheeler is a perfectly fine answer, and I totally see how you'd pick him, but this logic seems flawed to me.

Keuchel and Ryu are going to require multi-year deals.

So our 2020 Rotation would be

Gio

Ryu

Keuchel

Kopech

Cease

Lopez

Rodon after the ASB

2021 will be all all those same guys plus maybe Dunning.  It doesn't make any sense to sign 2 multi-year SP unless your plan is to trade someone.

 

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15 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Keuchel and Ryu are going to require multi-year deals.

So our 2020 Rotation would be

Gio

Ryu

Keuchel

Kopech

Cease

Lopez

Rodon after the ASB

2021 will be all all those same guys plus maybe Dunning.  It doesn't make any sense to sign 2 multi-year SP unless your plan is to trade someone.

 

I wouldn't count on Rodon for anything significant next year, and then he is a free agent.  Dunning is recovering from TJ and has 11 AA starts under his belt.  I don't think I would let that hold me back from adding a MLB level pitcher.  

It is probably a better idea just to go with the higher ceiling though I guess.  Though Ryu and Keuchel have both been better than Wheeler in the past, and even last year.  I certainly concede that Wheeler is probably the best bet to be better moving forward though.  

Personally I could see the advantage either way, but maybe I'm on an island with that.

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43 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I wouldn't count on Rodon for anything significant next year, and then he is a free agent.  Dunning is recovering from TJ and has 11 AA starts under his belt.  I don't think I would let that hold me back from adding a MLB level pitcher.  

It is probably a better idea just to go with the higher ceiling though I guess.  Though Ryu and Keuchel have both been better than Wheeler in the past, and even last year.  I certainly concede that Wheeler is probably the best bet to be better moving forward though.  

Personally I could see the advantage either way, but maybe I'm on an island with that.

Rodon isn’t a free agent after next year.

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34 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Rodon isn’t a free agent after next year.

Well butter my bottom and call me a biscuit.  Not sure why I thought that but it isn't even close.  

I'd still not count much on him in terms of contributions in the rotation.  I'd love to see what he can do as a reliever though.

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12 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Well butter my bottom and call me a biscuit.  Not sure why I thought that but it isn't even close.  

I'd still not count much on him in terms of contributions in the rotation.  I'd love to see what he can do as a reliever though.

In a perfect world, we have five solid starters when Rodon is healthy and he doesn’t need to take anyone’s place. It could be like adding a great lefty reliever at the trade deadline. 

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13 hours ago, wegner said:

I am just waiting for the Sox to blow up my personal never of "The White Sox will never sign someone who has a QO attached to them."  Prove me wrong Rick**

**but not for Ozuna please

They signed two guys with QOs in 2014 / 2015 offseason (Robertson & Melky).  The real never have I would be “The White Sox will never sign a player to a nine figure contract”.

Edited by Chicago White Sox

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10 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Based on MLBTR projections (I know, I know, ) the price tag on Wheeler (100 mil) is about the same as the price tag on Ryu and Keuchel (93).  Which would you rather have?  I have to say, I think I'd prefer the 2 starters to the one.  

I would not be signing two multi year starters.  IMO, the Sox’s plan after Grandal is to sign Wheeler and then attempt for Castellanos.  Combined those guys will make ~$55M.  While I think we can afford another $7M to $10M starter for 2020, I think it would be tough to fit in another high paid starter in 2021 & beyond as the young core gets more & more expensive.

And honestly, if you land Wheeler, you have basically have four locks for 2021 (health permitting) in him, Giolito, Kopech, & Cease.  You’d then have Lopez, Rodon, Dunning, & Lambert competing for the 5th spot.  You can never have enough pitching, but it doesn’t seem a need that warrants another $15M+ AAV guy in the mix.

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9 hours ago, turnin' two said:

No one?  Are you saying the Sox would have too many SPs?  Is that even a thing?  I think the answer there is clearly no.  

And don't Ryu and Wheeler have about the same injury history?  I mean, Wheeler is a perfectly fine answer, and I totally see how you'd pick him, but this logic seems flawed to me.

Without actually checking their stats, I’m almost positive that Wheeler has been fairly durable outside the two or three year stretch he was recovering from TJS. Ryu seems to get injured & miss time almost every season, with last year being the exception.  So they both have injury concerns, but different ones IMO.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I would not be signing two multi year starters.  IMO, the Sox’s plan after Grandal is to sign Wheeler and then attempt for Castellanos.  Combined those guys will make ~$55M.  While I think we can afford another $7M to $10M starter for 2020, I think it would be tough to fit in another high paid starter in 2021 & beyond as the young core gets more & more expensive.

And honestly, if you land Wheeler, you have basically have four locks for 2021 (health permitting) in him, Giolito, Kopech, & Cease.  You’d then have Lopez, Rodon, Dunning, & Lambert competing for the 5th spot.  You can never have enough pitching, but it doesn’t seem a need that warrants another $15M+ AAV guy in the mix.

No way they add Castellanos then...they likely add a Moustakas at DH for closer to $20-22 million over two years. Castellanos is likely to get at least 3-4 years/$45-60 million and then you’re not only committing yourself to a pretty bad defensive outfield but putting Robert’s health at risk as well.

 

Edited by caulfield12

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He might have been speculating but at the end of the Locked On Sox podcast, Herb Lawrence said that the next time we hear a podcast from him, the Sox will have Wheeler. He then said to mark it down. 

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Ryu seems to get injured & miss time almost every season, with last year being the exception.

On the topic of time missed to injuries, is there a good resource that compiles injury information, time missed ... etc.? I always feel like it's a natural kind of thing to have on bRef, but I've never seen it.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

No way they add Castellanos then...they likely add a Moustakas at DH for closer to $20-22 million over two years. Castellanos is likely to get at least 3-4 years/$45-60 million and then you’re not only committing yourself to a pretty bad defensive outfield but putting Robert’s health at risk as well.

 

I honestly wouldn't mind Castellanos at DH and Luery in CF, Robert in RF and Castellanos spells Leury (takes over in RF, Robert in CF) some days. Even though Leury did have a +.8 UZR in RF; -4.8 UZR in CF, not so sure I'd want his arm out there in RF majority of the days.  Wouldn't be the worst problem to have. I guess you could go the Moose route at DH and have him spell Madrigal at 2B as needed.  Either way, there's options out there.

Regardless of poor defense, Castellanos is really the ideal hitter for the Cell.  He's growing on me, I think he'd do quite well here. He's a line drive doubles hitter, which turned into HR while playing at Wrigley, his away splits aren't too shabby as well.  Yeah, I want him if he;s only going to be 4/60.

Edited by Soxnfins

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They signed two guys with QOs in 2014 / 2015 offseason (Robertson & Melky).  The real never have I would be “The White Sox will never sign a player to a nine figure contract”.

Thanks, I totally forgot about that.  Will your "never" be broken if they sign Wheeler?

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21 minutes ago, skooch said:

On the topic of time missed to injuries, is there a good resource that compiles injury information, time missed ... etc.? I always feel like it's a natural kind of thing to have on bRef, but I've never seen it.

Spotrac has a tracker on this, you can sort by player or by team or by money on the DL. 

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25 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

I honestly wouldn't mind Castellanos at DH and Luery in CF, Robert in RF and Castellanos spells Leury (takes over in RF, Robert in CF) some days. Even though Leury did have a +.8 UZR in RF; -4.8 UZR in CF, not so sure I'd want his arm out there in RF majority of the days.  Wouldn't be the worst problem to have. I guess you could go the Moose route at DH and have him spell Madrigal at 2B as needed.  Either way, there's options out there.

Regardless of poor defense, Castellanos is really the ideal hitter for the Cell.  He's growing on me, I think he'd do quite well here. He's a line drive doubles hitter, which turned into HR while playing at Wrigley, his away splits aren't too shabby as well.  Yeah, I want him if he;s only going to be 4/60.

You're not moving Robert out of CF.  

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20 minutes ago, wegner said:

Thanks, I totally forgot about that.  Will your "never" be broken if they sign Wheeler?

I think he gets 5/$100M and I’m hopeful it’s with us.

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4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I would not be signing two multi year starters.  IMO, the Sox’s plan after Grandal is to sign Wheeler and then attempt for Castellanos.  Combined those guys will make ~$55M.  While I think we can afford another $7M to $10M starter for 2020, I think it would be tough to fit in another high paid starter in 2021 & beyond as the young core gets more & more expensive.

And honestly, if you land Wheeler, you have basically have four locks for 2021 (health permitting) in him, Giolito, Kopech, & Cease.  You’d then have Lopez, Rodon, Dunning, & Lambert competing for the 5th spot.  You can never have enough pitching, but it doesn’t seem a need that warrants another $15M+ AAV guy in the mix.

Signing two guys as opposed to one with a similar outlay is about risk mitigation.  Because how often are rotations healthy?  The answer seems to be pretty darn infrequently.  It could also give you flexibility to move guys around a bit (Lopez and Rodon to the bullpen, or something like that) and still have an extremely talented rotation.  Mostly, it would be a way to spend the same money, but to have a little more insurance in terms of talent on the team.  This is probably a reaction similar to a person that has almost starved always keeping excessive amounts of food on hand due to fear (in this case starving is Dylan Covey, Despaigne, Shields, Nova and all the other batting practice we've had to endure the last few seasons).

And while Ryu does have injury concerns, his results, when healthy are significantly better than the results Wheeler has been able to post.  He doesn't have the sexy fastball, but he has a better ERA, FIP, WHIP,  BB/K (their h/9, hr/9 and k/9 are very similar over their careers, with more of an advantage to Ryu the last 2 seasons).  And while Wheeler has been really good the last 2 seasons, Ryu has been better in just about every area -- except innings pitched--- which speaks to your point, and is a legit concern.  But even with that, he has been nothing short of outstanding the last two seasons.  

Not that it'll happen, I just thought it was an interesting question, and apparently I was the only one.  Seems pretty typical of me.  I'll stop gumming up the thread.

Edited by turnin' two

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14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think he gets 5/$100M and I’m hopeful it’s with us.

100% agree.  I wanted them to strike quickly in free agency and they did.  If they were to sign Wheeler soon...tremendous.

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Just now, wegner said:

100% agree.  I wanted them to strike quickly in free agency and they did.  If they were to sign Wheeler soon...tremendous.

Still sticking with my "Sox don't use rounded numbers" theory and say 5/97.

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2 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

Still sticking with my "Sox don't use rounded numbers" theory and say 5/97.

Nervous about nine figure contracts?  Today only...round out your rotation with the uber talented Zack Wheeler for the bargain price of 99.99 mill.  Available on flexpay.

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1 minute ago, wegner said:

Nervous about nine figure contracts?  Today only...round out your rotation with the uber talented Zack Wheeler for the bargain price of 99.99 mill.  Available on flexpay.

Me? Nah.  Jerry? Probably. Lol

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Time for the signing of Zack Wheeler to bump Abreu's extension from the top of the posts.  Get it done Rick!!!

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