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Strasburg officially opts out

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The more I think about it, the more I'm persuaded that the Sox should try to sign one of the two Aces. Pitching is still what wins championships. Signing one of the second tier arms just isn't going to get the Sox to a seriously competitive level. Even if they should make it into the post season, they would need 3 top tier starters. They already have a bunch of guys who have a good chance to be #2, or #3 starters. Kopech, Cease and even Lopez may very well qualify as legitimate #2, or 3 arms.

Rodon can't really be considered in that mix, as he is likely to miss at least the first half of the season and then will be a free agent in 2022. They may have one Ace, if Giolito can repeat, but that is not enough. If they can sign one of the two free agent aces, they would have their #1 and 2. If one of Kopech or Cease becomes a top of the rotation level pitcher, they would have a very formidable staff. In that scenario, you could reasonably hope for the other one, of those two, to fill out the bottom of the rotation, with Lopez. And, if they should be fortunate enough to have all of them develop into number 2 level quality starters, or better, they would have a championship staff, as well as some depth.

They have the money, and are really not going to have to spend much on the starting rotation, for a couple more years. Adding guys like Odorizzi, Wheeler, Bumgarner pretty much just ensures mediocrity. None of those guys are Aces, which means that you would need both Kopech and Cease to become top tier starters, in order to have your big 3, for the post season. I like the prospects of all of them to reach their potential, including Lopez, but it's pretty hard to count on that. 

As risky as it is to spend money on pitchers, that is probably what it will take to get this team to the level of serious contenders.  

 

 

Edited by Lillian
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20 minutes ago, Lillian said:

The more I think about it, the more I'm persuaded that the Sox should try to sign one of the two Aces. Pitching is still what wins championships. Signing one of the second tier arms just isn't going to get the Sox to a seriously competitive level. Even if they should make it into the post season, they would need 3 top tier starters. They already have a bunch of guys who have a good chance to be #2, or #3 starters. Kopech, Cease and even Lopez may very well qualify as legitimate #2, or 3 arms.

Rodon can't really be considered in that mix, as he is likely to miss at least the first half of the season and then will be a free agent in 2022. They may have one Ace, if Giolito can repeat, but that is not enough. If they can sign one of the two free agent aces, they would have their #1 and 2. If one of Kopech or Cease becomes a top of the rotation level pitcher, they would have a very formidable staff. In that scenario, you could reasonably hope for the other one, of those two, to fill out the bottom of the rotation, with Lopez. And, if they should be fortunate enough to have all of them develop into number 2 level quality starters, or better, they would have a championship staff, as well as some depth.

They have the money, and are really not going to have to spend much on the starting rotation, for a couple more years. Adding guys like Odorizzi, Wheeler, Bumgarner pretty much just ensures mediocrity. None of those guys are Aces, which means that you would need both Kopech and Cease to become top tier starters, in order to have your big 3, for the post season. I like the prospects of all of them to reach their potential, including Lopez, but it's pretty hard to count on that. 

As risky as it is to spend money on pitchers, that is probably what it will take to get this team to the level of serious contenders.  

 

 

I don't disagree with you but until they show me that they will,  I do not expect the Sox to sign anyone that costs them a draft pick whether that be Cole,  Stras, Wheeler, JDM or anyone else.  I hope they prove me wrong.

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26 minutes ago, wegner said:

I don't disagree with you but until they show me that they will,  I do not expect the Sox to sign anyone that costs them a draft pick whether that be Cole,  Stras, Wheeler, JDM or anyone else.  I hope they prove me wrong.

Why would they be afraid to lose a draft pick?

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10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why would they be afraid to lose a draft pick?

I just don't think they will pursue anyone who has a qualifying offer.  Like I said I hope I'm wrong and very well could be since it is now a 2nd round and not a 1st round pick.

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What the Sox will probably do should not inform the discussion on what the Sox should do....both in terms of draft picks and financial offers.

The Sox should offer whatever it takes to get both pitchers, and win a goddamned World Series. The White Sox make a mint every year on merchandising and television rights ,and are consistently rated an extremely profitable and valuable franchise.

Whether they would spend $300 or $400 million on these two pitchers is absolutely arbitrary to their long term bottom line, even if the last three years of both are not great. Fine, we might suck in 2025. Who cares. Our window is 2020-2023. 

Get them done. 

Edited by Greg Hibbard
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2 hours ago, wegner said:

I just don't think they will pursue anyone who has a qualifying offer.  Like I said I hope I'm wrong and very well could be since it is now a 2nd round and not a 1st round pick.

The Sox need to be done worrying about draft picks, especially since it's now only a 2nd RD pick for them.

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6 hours ago, Lillian said:

The more I think about it, the more I'm persuaded that the Sox should try to sign one of the two Aces. Pitching is still what wins championships. Signing one of the second tier arms just isn't going to get the Sox to a seriously competitive level. Even if they should make it into the post season, they would need 3 top tier starters. They already have a bunch of guys who have a good chance to be #2, or #3 starters. Kopech, Cease and even Lopez may very well qualify as legitimate #2, or 3 arms.

Rodon can't really be considered in that mix, as he is likely to miss at least the first half of the season and then will be a free agent in 2022. They may have one Ace, if Giolito can repeat, but that is not enough. If they can sign one of the two free agent aces, they would have their #1 and 2. If one of Kopech or Cease becomes a top of the rotation level pitcher, they would have a very formidable staff. In that scenario, you could reasonably hope for the other one, of those two, to fill out the bottom of the rotation, with Lopez. And, if they should be fortunate enough to have all of them develop into number 2 level quality starters, or better, they would have a championship staff, as well as some depth.

They have the money, and are really not going to have to spend much on the starting rotation, for a couple more years. Adding guys like Odorizzi, Wheeler, Bumgarner pretty much just ensures mediocrity. None of those guys are Aces, which means that you would need both Kopech and Cease to become top tier starters, in order to have your big 3, for the post season. I like the prospects of all of them to reach their potential, including Lopez, but it's pretty hard to count on that. 

As risky as it is to spend money on pitchers, that is probably what it will take to get this team to the level of serious contenders.  

 

 

If they’re willing to go to the $160-170 million range in payroll, sure.

If they’re going to be closer to $125-150 million, that’s too much to invest in one player...and would wipe out the likelihood of keeping at least one of Moncada, Giolito or Robert on an extension.

If you’re going to be a championship-level club, you basically need to be in the $165-175 range or higher.

Otherwise, you’re the Twins, Rays and A’s...not even the Braves or Brewers.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

If they’re willing to go to the $160-170 million range in payroll, sure.

If they’re going to be closer to $125-150 million, that’s too much to invest in one player...and would wipe out the likelihood of keeping at least one of Moncada, Giolito or Robert on an extension.

If you’re going to be a championship-level club, you basically need to be in the $165-175 range or higher.

Otherwise, you’re the Twins, Rays and A’s...not even the Braves or Brewers.

So the real point is that a $125mill payroll will not be championship caliber, but also that we only have 3 years where $125 million even allows substantial outside additions before it just starts moving toward internal assets, especially troubling with a weakening farm and no intl program.

Which means they should probably just go high end and seek to trade in a few years imo.

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51 minutes ago, bmags said:

So the real point is that a $125mill payroll will not be championship caliber, but also that we only have 3 years where $125 million even allows substantial outside additions before it just starts moving toward internal assets, especially troubling with a weakening farm and no intl program.

Which means they should probably just go high end and seek to trade in a few years imo.

Honestly, I’m sure most of the fanbase would rather see that $150-160 million payroll next year, with the Twins taking a lot of hits to their pitching staff outside of Berrios and Graterol...and the Indians considering a Lindor trade to the Dodgers.

Why wait?   There’s likely only that four year window, and many are already resigned to it being just three or worried about saving bullets for next year’s free agent class...waiting to see how all the young players and prospects develop over the next year, etc.

They would still be fine if they went with temp solutions at RF and DH...as long as they get commitments from Grandal (2-3 years) and Wheeler (4-5 years).

The rest is fungible.  Just make two real commitments of at least $60-90 million.   And be right, for once, on both of them.

Everything else is just window dressing to get to 2021 with at least a 50/50 shot at a wild card next year...by then you will know about the pitching staff, Collins, Madrigal, Robert and hopefully Vaughn to make the finishing touches heading into the following year.

 

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38 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Honestly, I’m sure most of the fanbase would rather see that $150-160 million payroll next year, with the Twins taking a lot of hits to their pitching staff outside of Berrios and Graterol...and the Indians considering a Lindor trade to the Dodgers.

Why wait?   There’s likely only that four year window, and many are already resigned to it being just three or worried about saving bullets for next year’s free agent class...waiting to see how all the young players and prospects develop over the next year, etc.

They would still be fine if they went with temp solutions at RF and DH...as long as they get commitments from Grandal (2-3 years) and Wheeler (4-5 years).

The rest is fungible.  Just make two real commitments of at least $60-90 million.   And be right, for once, on both of them.

Everything else is just window dressing to get to 2021 with at least a 50/50 shot at a wild card next year...by then you will know about the pitching staff, Collins, Madrigal, Robert and hopefully Vaughn to make the finishing touches heading into the following year.

 

This is what I worry about. If they are already nodding to needing to be prudent for extensions than our window is already smaller than people think and next year is part of it.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

So the real point is that a $125mill payroll will not be championship caliber, but also that we only have 3 years where $125 million even allows substantial outside additions before it just starts moving toward internal assets, especially troubling with a weakening farm and no intl program.

Which means they should probably just go high end and seek to trade in a few years imo.

No, but you probably have to be creative and lucky. Of the final four, the Cardinals had the lowest payroll at $165. But if you drop down to previous round, the Braves had a very good year and spent $117.  I will not include Tampa as their payroll is minor league level.  But the World Series had teams w  big payrolls as well as many experienced players. 

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36 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

No, but you probably have to be creative and lucky. Of the final four, the Cardinals had the lowest payroll at $165. But if you drop down to previous round, the Braves had a very good year and spent $117.  I will not include Tampa as their payroll is minor league level.  But the World Series had teams w  big payrolls as well as many experienced players. 

Because the Braves had hardly any money invested in their starting rotation other than Keuchel.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Because the Braves had hardly any money invested in their starting rotation other than Keuchel.

Yes, and when it was clear we would not have a surplus of prospects near what braces had with pitching, this became unrealistic for competing.

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11 hours ago, wegner said:

I just don't think they will pursue anyone who has a qualifying offer.  Like I said I hope I'm wrong and very well could be since it is now a 2nd round and not a 1st round pick.

What concerns would we have? I hope they pitch their 2nd and 3rd this off-season as we have more use for good major league talent opposed to AAA fodder at this point. This doesn't mean draft picks aren't important, just that we can sacrifice them for immediate talent upgrades. 

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8 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

What concerns would we have? I hope they pitch their 2nd and 3rd this off-season as we have more use for good major league talent opposed to AAA fodder at this point. This doesn't mean draft picks aren't important, just that we can sacrifice them for immediate talent upgrades. 

I am fine with giving up the draft picks for the talent upgrades.  All I am saying is that they have never aggressively gone after anyone who had a QO attached to them.  Until they do, I am skeptical that they will.  They may all change since they no longer will lose a first round pick.  I am not against losing the picks, I am just waiting to see if they are willing now to do that.

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23 minutes ago, wegner said:

I am fine with giving up the draft picks for the talent upgrades.  All I am saying is that they have never aggressively gone after anyone who had a QO attached to them.  Until they do, I am skeptical that they will.  They may all change since they no longer will lose a first round pick.  I am not against losing the picks, I am just waiting to see if they are willing now to do that.

Things have changed now, we have a team set up that needs it. They need to prove times have changed. 

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4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Things have changed now, we have a team set up that needs it. They need to prove times have changed. 

I totally agree with you.  I am anxious to see them prove it to all of us with an exciting off season.

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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Because the Braves had hardly any money invested in their starting rotation other than Keuchel.

Braves had $38 MIl with their top 3 starters. We had 9 with Nova. We could dump Nova and certainly add two very good starters for $38 or keep Nova and find two for $28. 

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2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/stephen-strasburg-rumors

Morosi says White Sox are a dark horse to land Strasburg.

Fun. I could see it from a non-biased standpoint... White Sox are clearly going IN with Grandal and the young guns ready to blossom so it makes sense. 

I personally would love it 100x more than Wheeler.

However, knowing our Sox, I don't see it happening. Stras is going to want to go elsewhere. 

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Having opted out of his 4 year, $100 Million contract with the Nats, and given all of the other big market teams looking for pitching, what do you think it would take to sign him? Whatever that number is, it would almost certainly be something way out of character, for Mr. Reinsdorf, especially for a 32 year old pitcher. Nevertheless, we can dream. 

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Although it's hard to argue with his dominance this past post-season. If you're going to blow your wad on a stud #1, I'd rather do it on Gerrit Cole. He's younger and has been more durable over the years.

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3 hours ago, Sarava said:

Although it's hard to argue with his dominance this past post-season. If you're going to blow your wad on a stud #1, I'd rather do it on Gerrit Cole. He's younger and has been more durable over the years.

That's true, but there may be a decent chunk of change difference.

I'd be so thrilled with Stras. I think a lot of nats players have been underrated as harper sucked the attention. Stras has had some injuries but he's been so freaking consistently good when he's played.

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