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JDM staying in Boston

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Timing on free agency is really tough to predict, but if JDM opts out, I feel like his timing may be a bit quicker than that.  I would assume he has a pretty good idea that someone is willing to beat his current 3/$63 he has left on his deal if he does in fact opt out today, 

At this point, I think JD doesn't out out, takes his $23.75M for 2020, and then opts out after next year when his salary reduces to $19.35M.  Going to be tough for him to beat $23.75M AAV for 2020.  

I don't really think it's possible for them to have a "pretty good idea" that someone is willing to beat his current contract, I think the owners aren't going to give him the advantage of the kind of back-channel communications people are imagining they're doing, and I think he's in the same basic position as 2 years ago - a solid DH in a market with lots of DH options and no one necessarily gunning to give a huge deal. 

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

I don't really think it's possible for them to have a "pretty good idea" that someone is willing to beat his current contract, I think the owners aren't going to give him the advantage of the kind of back-channel communications people are imagining they're doing, and I think he's in the same basic position as 2 years ago - a solid DH in a market with lots of DH options and no one necessarily gunning to give a huge deal. 

If he does opt out and we offer 3 years and $75 million, do you think he takes it right away?

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1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

If he does opt out and we offer 3 years and $75 million, do you think he takes it right away?

I honestly do not know. Scott Boras's response may well be "They'll put a 4th year on there if we hold out". 

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Question for anyone who knows:  In this type of situation, would Boras be permitted to talk to the Sox front office (and vice versa) about potential contract terms without violating the CBA or other league rules.  Until he formally opts out, he's technically under contract with the Red Sox, so I would assume no.

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1 minute ago, Orlando said:

Fake insiders are coming out early this year lol

 

This bit is the absolute worst thing in the world, but is fascinating on a psychological level.

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2 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Question for anyone who knows:  In this type of situation, would Boras be permitted to talk to the Sox front office (and vice versa) about potential contract terms without violating the CBA or other league rules.  Until he formally opts out, he's technically under contract with the Red Sox, so I would assume no.

Correct. It would be considered tampering to discuss contract parameters with the agent of a player currently under contract. 

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1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Correct. It would be considered tampering to discuss contract parameters with the agent of a player currently under contract. 

Well there are many back channels that are most likely being used. Like the janitor bumping into Boras and giving his "input". 

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14 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Timing on free agency is really tough to predict, but if JDM opts out, I feel like his timing may be a bit quicker than that.  I would assume he has a pretty good idea that someone is willing to beat his current 3/$63 he has left on his deal if he does in fact opt out today, 

At this point, I think JD doesn't out out, takes his $23.75M for 2020, and then opts out after next year when his salary reduces to $19.35M.  Going to be tough for him to beat $23.75M AAV for 2020.  

Yep. I don't think he wants to hold out too long and end up with a weak deal. Things may change a little after what happened to players last year. If I'm JDM, and I get a big offer, I may just take that thing on sight. 

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3 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Well there are many back channels that are most likely being used. Like the janitor bumping into Boras and giving his "input". 

It does seem likely that this is happening to some extent.

To me, the most plausible explanation for JDM to wait until the last second to make his opt out decision is that these type of communications between Boras and teams are occurring, so that Boras could be fully confident that he can beat JDM's current deal.  There's no other analysis that Boras would be doing now that he couldn't have otherwise done over the last month regarding JDM's likely market, so why wait until Monday afternoon to announce his decision unless he's trying to confirm likely offers.

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35 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't really think it's possible for them to have a "pretty good idea" that someone is willing to beat his current contract, I think the owners aren't going to give him the advantage of the kind of back-channel communications people are imagining they're doing, and I think he's in the same basic position as 2 years ago - a solid DH in a market with lots of DH options and no one necessarily gunning to give a huge deal. 

Yah, I don't think things are quite that cut and dry. I am sure Boras is aware of who has interest and to what extent.

If he is going into this blind, there is no way he is going to opt out this offseason.  May as well take the $23.75M and opt out next year.  

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33 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I don't think things are quite that cut and dry. I am sure Boras is aware of who has interest and to what extent.

If he is going into this blind, there is no way he is going to opt out this offseason.  May as well take the $23.75M and opt out next year.  

There's no way the White Sox are going to be helping Boras out by doing "just a little tampering" or whatever people are imagining. Maybe some other franchise, but not this one. If they think the White Sox are their best chance, they will absolutely be doing it blind. 

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53 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

It does seem likely that this is happening to some extent.

To me, the most plausible explanation for JDM to wait until the last second to make his opt out decision is that these type of communications between Boras and teams are occurring, so that Boras could be fully confident that he can beat JDM's current deal.  There's no other analysis that Boras would be doing now that he couldn't have otherwise done over the last month regarding JDM's likely market, so why wait until Monday afternoon to announce his decision unless he's trying to confirm likely offers.

At the very least his side waited until they knew whether Encarnacion would be on the market. Being at the end of the line can give information like that, there could be someone else who unexpectedly opts-out or has an option not picked up.

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58 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

It does seem likely that this is happening to some extent.

To me, the most plausible explanation for JDM to wait until the last second to make his opt out decision is that these type of communications between Boras and teams are occurring, so that Boras could be fully confident that he can beat JDM's current deal.  There's no other analysis that Boras would be doing now that he couldn't have otherwise done over the last month regarding JDM's likely market, so why wait until Monday afternoon to announce his decision unless he's trying to confirm likely offers.

He very well could be hoping Red Sox sweeten the deal by perhaps dropping injury penalties if nothing else or adding a year or maybe money

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1 hour ago, Perfect Vision said:

It does seem likely that this is happening to some extent.

To me, the most plausible explanation for JDM to wait until the last second to make his opt out decision is that these type of communications between Boras and teams are occurring, so that Boras could be fully confident that he can beat JDM's current deal.  There's no other analysis that Boras would be doing now that he couldn't have otherwise done over the last month regarding JDM's likely market, so why wait until Monday afternoon to announce his decision unless he's trying to confirm likely offers.

So your theory is Scott Boras is risking his license and entire agency in order to guarantee the correct decision in regards to one client opting out?

There's no chance he is contacting teams while JD is still under contract with a team. Boras' has had clients opt out who went on to not make the same amount as the qualifying offer. It's a part of the risk. He is analyzing the market and determining how much he can get out of everyone.

The reason he is waiting until the last minute to opt out is because everyone waits until the last day to opt out because there's no point in opting out a day earlier as contracts aren't going to be signed today anyway.

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20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There's no way the White Sox are going to be helping Boras out by doing "just a little tampering" or whatever people are imagining. Maybe some other franchise, but not this one. If they think the White Sox are their best chance, they will absolutely be doing it blind. 

No franchise is participating in agent led tampering - they put their own organization at risk all in the name of helping out Scott Boras. No one is doing that.

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3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No franchise is participating in agent led tampering - they put their own organization at risk all in the name of helping out Scott Boras. No one is doing that.

They wouldn't do it to help out Scott Boras. They'd do it to make sure that a player they wanted knew they'd have money to spend on him. The White Sox will not casually work with Scott Boras even if it gives them that sort of advantage. Some teams...might.

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11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So your theory is Scott Boras is risking his license and entire agency in order to guarantee the correct decision in regards to one client opting out?

There's no chance he is contacting teams while JD is still under contract with a team. Boras' has had clients opt out who went on to not make the same amount as the qualifying offer. It's a part of the risk. He is analyzing the market and determining how much he can get out of everyone.

The reason he is waiting until the last minute to opt out is because everyone waits until the last day to opt out because there's no point in opting out a day earlier as contracts aren't going to be signed today anyway.

So your theory is teams and agents always play by the rules...

Rules are broken by team personnel, players, and agents all the time in all sports.  Sometimes they're caught and punished, sometimes they get away with it.  But it's naive to think that Boras wouldn't be trying to get information in ethically-questionable ways, or that a team interested in giving JDM a bigger deal than his current one wouldn't be trying to communicate that in some fashion to Boras.

Edited by Perfect Vision

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7 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

So your theory is teams and agents always play by the rules...

My theory is scott boras, again, is not risking his agency and license in the name of JD martinez of opting out. Why you think he is, I will never know.

Maybe scott knows a team is interested In the position but he certainly has no idea what the dollar figures are.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My theory is scott boras, again, is not risking his agency and license in the name of JD martinez of opting out. Why you think he is, I will never know.

Maybe scott knows a team is interested In the position but he certainly has no idea what the dollar figures are.

Probably because he's done ethically questionable things countless times in his career on behalf of countless clients, and he doesn't see this as risking his agency.

Frankly, I'm a bit surprised you think everyone involved is squeaky clean and doing everything by the book when there are millions of dollars on the line.

Edited by Perfect Vision

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9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

They wouldn't do it to help out Scott Boras. They'd do it to make sure that a player they wanted knew they'd have money to spend on him. The White Sox will not casually work with Scott Boras even if it gives them that sort of advantage. Some teams...might.

Why do you think JD Martinez is different than the countless other players who have opted out blind? Why do you think scott Boras would risk his career for JD martinez but not Dallas Keuchel - whom he screwed last year?

Again, I dont think people realize the severity of the situation you are insinuating Boras is participating in.

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