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MeanJoeCrede

What about Collins?

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On 11/16/2019 at 9:24 PM, MeanJoeCrede said:

1. Is he a catcher?

2. Is he a part of the core moving forward?

3. Is he just a left handed bat with a high OBP?

4. Is he a trade piece?

5. Or do we need more time to figure out what he is and how he fits?

1) Maybe as a backup

2) Possibly.  But only as a platoon guy against right handed pitchers. 

3) Most likely.  And worse than that, he's solely a platoon guy against RHP.  He has proven he can't hit lefties.

4) Does he have any value right now?  

5) No.  At this point we know what he is.  A left handed power hitting high OBP guy against right handed hitters.  A backup player positionally that should fill in for 80 games or so a year giving the regular 1B, C, or DH a day off.  

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8 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

1) Maybe as a backup

2) Possibly.  But only as a platoon guy against right handed pitchers. 

3) Most likely.  And worse than that, he's solely a platoon guy against RHP.  He has proven he can't hit lefties.

4) Does he have any value right now?  

5) No.  At this point we know what he is.  A left handed power hitting high OBP guy against right handed hitters.  A backup player positionally that should fill in for 80 games or so a year giving the regular 1B, C, or DH a day off.  

I don’t get why “only a LH power hitting high OBP guy” isn’t valuable to you. We play in the AL with a DH and the vast majority of pitchers are right handlers. He can get 450-500 AB’s no problem and a bench guy that hits just lefties well isn’t hard to find 

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8 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

1) Maybe as a backup

2) Possibly.  But only as a platoon guy against right handed pitchers. 

3) Most likely.  And worse than that, he's solely a platoon guy against RHP.  He has proven he can't hit lefties.

4) Does he have any value right now?  

5) No.  At this point we know what he is.  A left handed power hitting high OBP guy against right handed hitters.  A backup player positionally that should fill in for 80 games or so a year giving the regular 1B, C, or DH a day off.  

I don't think we really know "what he is" at age 24 with 86 MLB at bats.  

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18 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

He put up a .950 OPS in AAA this year...not much different than Robert this year or Jiminez last year.  He hit .280 this year in AAA at 24. He hit .360 in his senior year in Miami.     The idea that his ceiling is .220 with 25 homers and he can't catch seems wildly pessimistic.  An elite batting eye added to the natural maturation process would suggest he could be an elite hitter.  Maybe we've used up our unbridled optimism on Robert and Madrigal but if we're going to dream it doesn't seem crazy to dream that Collins could be very good.  

He can definitely hit enough for a starting catcher if you give him time.

The problem is that the sox don't seem to see him as a catcher as does longenhagen. So if it is a DH the bat is Still ok, but the question is if if it is more than average. His OPS was super high but often the milb ops of super high walk guys who lack either power or hit won't hold in mlb because pitchers there throw strikes unless you force them out of the zone.

 

Tyler white is a good example of this. Slightly different hitter (more hit, less power than collins) but also a guy who posted 900+ ops regularly based on astronomical walk rates (coupled with like a 270 avg and like 15-20 bombs) and this didn't hold in mlb.

Still think he will be an 800+ ops guy in mlb but the value of that depends on if he can catch or not.

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7 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

He can definitely hit enough for a starting catcher if you give him time.

The problem is that the sox don't seem to see him as a catcher as does longenhagen. So if it is a DH the bat is Still ok, but the question is if if it is more than average. His OPS was super high but often the milb ops of super high walk guys who lack either power or hit won't hold in mlb because pitchers there throw strikes unless you force them out of the zone.

 

Tyler white is a good example of this. Slightly different hitter (more hit, less power than collins) but also a guy who posted 900+ ops regularly based on astronomical walk rates (coupled with like a 270 avg and like 15-20 bombs) and this didn't hold in mlb.

Still think he will be an 800+ ops guy in mlb but the value of that depends on if he can catch or not.

Not giving up on Collins, but as we shift towards trying to contend I am not sure we can afford to roll the dice on giving him MLB at bats. 

We need a legitimate DH and starting catcher, and I think Collins is best suited for AAA regular at bats

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2 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Not giving up on Collins, but as we shift towards trying to contend I am not sure we can afford to roll the dice on giving him MLB at bats. 

We need a legitimate DH and starting catcher, and I think Collins is best suited for AAA regular at bats

Aren't we rolling the dice with Robert and Madrigan and Kopeck and Cease...seems like exactly the team to roll the dice on...but spend the money on Cole.  

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5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Aren't we rolling the dice with Robert and Madrigan and Kopeck and Cease...seems like exactly the team to roll the dice on...but spend the money on Cole.  

1) Collins is a below average defensive catcher, no way to argue otherwise right now. 

2) Collins, albeit in a limited sample size, has not hit well at the MLB level at all. No way we can rely on him to be anything beyond a backup catcher in 2020.

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2 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

1) Collins is a below average defensive catcher, no way to argue otherwise right now. 

2) Collins, albeit in a limited sample size, has not hit well at the MLB level at all. No way we can rely on him to be anything beyond a backup catcher in 2020.

Let's say Eloy's timeline was hypothetically delayed about a year, and his first taste of the majors was at the end of 2019. Let's also say he struggled at the plate in that limited sample size.  Would you be willing to give him a shot a the start of 2020? 

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15 hours ago, yesterday333 said:

From what I’ve read, he calls a good game and has a good arm, but his receiving and framing are the problem.

Which could be a real issue. If you look up Francisco Mejia's time with the Padres this year, when he was behind the plate the pitchers ERA's were all up like 1-2 runs. It was actually kind of crazy. But, then, damn how bad are the Sox at assessing and handling talent. If this is the case and he's really that bad at catcher why wasn't he in LF or 1B or 3B or somewhere learning to be a mulit-tool. The White Sox brass seem like they are ready and willing to give up on him before it even begins. 

 

To me, if he has a good arm and calls a good game, we can fix the other stuff. Go hire one of hte retired Molina brothers and teach Collins. 

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33 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

He can definitely hit enough for a starting catcher if you give him time.

The problem is that the sox don't seem to see him as a catcher as does longenhagen. So if it is a DH the bat is Still ok, but the question is if if it is more than average. His OPS was super high but often the milb ops of super high walk guys who lack either power or hit won't hold in mlb because pitchers there throw strikes unless you force them out of the zone.

 

Tyler white is a good example of this. Slightly different hitter (more hit, less power than collins) but also a guy who posted 900+ ops regularly based on astronomical walk rates (coupled with like a 270 avg and like 15-20 bombs) and this didn't hold in mlb.

Still think he will be an 800+ ops guy in mlb but the value of that depends on if he can catch or not.

Didn't think of this angle. White is a great comparison. Voglebach too. It's crazy how many talented guys don't seem to work out in the MLB. (I get that Voglebach had a good year - but still a man without a position and took like 8 consisent years of him pumping out great stats to even get traded for a bag of balls to the Mariners)

Catcher or bust for Collins IMO - so might as well sink or swim with him in 2020 and figure it out (actually how 2019 shouldve been utilized)

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5 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Didn't think of this angle. White is a great comparison. Voglebach too. It's crazy how many talented guys don't seem to work out in the MLB. (I get that Voglebach had a good year - but still a man without a position and took like 8 consisent years of him pumping out great stats to even get traded for a bag of balls to the Mariners)

Catcher or bust for Collins IMO - so might as well sink or swim with him in 2020 and figure it out (actually how 2019 shouldve been utilized)

I’m not willing to risk the development of our young pitchers with Collins being behind the plate more than once a week.

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30 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

1) Collins is a below average defensive catcher, no way to argue otherwise right now. 

2) Collins, albeit in a limited sample size, has not hit well at the MLB level at all. No way we can rely on him to be anything beyond a backup catcher in 2020.

Except you generally want your backup catcher to actually be good at catching.

Collins best role is a platoon DH/1B and 3rd catcher.  He'll get plenty of at bats that way, and that is how I expect the Sox to utilize him in 2020.  The plan works a hell of a lot better with Grandal in the fold, however.  

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Except you generally want your backup catcher to actually be good at catching.

Collins best role is a platoon DH/1B and 3rd catcher.  He'll get plenty of at bats that way, and that is how I expect the Sox to utilize him in 2020.  The plan works a hell of a lot better with Grandal in the fold, however.  

Collins could figure the hitting out, but I do not think he will or should get long of a leash at the MLB level. A 38 K% even in 27 games is alarming. 

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1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Collins could figure the hitting out, but I do not think he will or should get long of a leash at the MLB level. A 38 K% even in 27 games is alarming. 

I don’t see how 1 could have this opinion and then also pencil in Cease to start the year in the rotation. 
 

I don’t know your personal stance on Cease, just a general statement. Makes no sense that we gave so much leeway to Gio, Yoan, and now Cease, but Collins gets less than a 1/4 season? I’d say let’s see what we have over a solid 300 AB’s before any decisions are made either way 

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15 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Collins could figure the hitting out, but I do not think he will or should get long of a leash at the MLB level. A 38 K% even in 27 games is alarming. 

Yah its gross, but a 13.7% BB% is exactly what the Sox need - not to mention the left handed power.  He's going to strike out a lot - but he also provides some things that the Sox lineup sorely needs.

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58 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

1) Collins is a below average defensive catcher, no way to argue otherwise right now. 

2) Collins, albeit in a limited sample size, has not hit well at the MLB level at all. No way we can rely on him to be anything beyond a backup catcher in 2020.

In September, when he was finally getting regular playing time, he hit .233/.343/.417.  Not great, but not bad.  Collins probably isn't going to be a star in MLB, but if he can get on base at a .350ish clip and hit 25 homeruns, he would be a fine everyday DH.

A DH who would post similar or slightly better stats probably wouldn't be hard to find in free agency every year, but if the Sox could save $8-10 mil annually and put it towards something else by using Collins in that role, why wouldn't they?

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8 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I don’t see how 1 could have this opinion and then also pencil in Cease to start the year in the rotation. 
 

I don’t know your personal stance on Cease, just a general statement. Makes no sense that we gave so much leeway to Gio, Yoan, and now Cease, but Collins gets less than a 1/4 season? I’d say let’s see what we have over a solid 300 AB’s before any decisions are made either way 

Cease was solid down the stretch in September, posting a 3.00 ERA in 21 innings with solid peripherals. The stuff is there, he just needed to adjust to the majors. I'm fine with penciling him in as our 5th starter in 2020, and hopefully he proves to be rotation worthy onward.

Collins simply plays well below average defense, and a wRC+ of 77 across 27 games does not inspire much confidence yet. I am not writing him off, but Cease has earned a lenthy look in 2020, Collins has not. Where do pro-Collins fans want him to play in 2020? Backup catcher? Generally you want that to be a glove first player in case your starter gets injured. 1B/DH would be enormous pressure on his bat, which has not been there. I would park Collins in AAA for the time being. 

 

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15 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I don’t see how 1 could have this opinion and then also pencil in Cease to start the year in the rotation. 
 

I don’t know your personal stance on Cease, just a general statement. Makes no sense that we gave so much leeway to Gio, Yoan, and now Cease, but Collins gets less than a 1/4 season? I’d say let’s see what we have over a solid 300 AB’s before any decisions are made either way 

This is exactly the point I was getting at when I posed the hypothetical Eloy question earlier in the thread.  People have an idea of what a player should turn out to be based on how highly touted or highly ranked they are/were as a prospect.  The guys who are higher ranked should get a longer leash, in their minds.

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7 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Cease was solid down the stretch in September, posting a 3.00 ERA in 21 innings with solid peripherals. The stuff is there, he just needed to adjust to the majors. I'm fine with penciling him in as our 5th starter in 2020, and hopefully he proves to be rotation worthy onward.

Collins simply plays well below average defense, and a wRC+ of 77 across 27 games does not inspire much confidence yet. I am not writing him off, but Cease has earned a lenthy look in 2020, Collins has not. Where do pro-Collins fans want him to play in 2020? Backup catcher? Generally you want that to be a glove first player in case your starter gets injured. 1B/DH would be enormous pressure on his bat, which has not been there. I would park Collins in AAA for the time being. 

 

Backup catcher and gaining experience is exactly what I want from Collins in the first half of the season. I didn't think he was good at the position but he wasn't Steroids Castillo bad back there to my eyes; maybe his game calling needs work but there's time for him to learn that and improve. If we come out in the first half and the catching spot is a genuine weakness, it's more because of McCann than because of Collins, and backup catcher is a reasonably cheap thing to acquire in June if we have to send him down.

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3 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Joey Gallo strikes out 200x a year and OPS's over .800.  I would take that from Collins and I don't think he would k near that much.

Gallo has enormous power, which helps offset the swing and miss. 

I do not hate Collins, I just struggle to understand how any fan could reasonable pencil him in to regular at bats in 2020? He cannot be our main option at DH, because if he flops we would be screwed, with no viable in house alternatives. 

 

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Backup catcher and gaining experience is exactly what I want from Collins in the first half of the season. I didn't think he was good at the position but he wasn't Steroids Castillo bad back there to my eyes; maybe his game calling needs work but there's time for him to learn that and improve. If we come out in the first half and the catching spot is a genuine weakness, it's more because of McCann than because of Collins, and backup catcher is a reasonably cheap thing to acquire in June if we have to send him down.

You are suggesting that we rely on McCann/Collins in 2020 and onward right? No Grandal pursuit? 

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1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Gallo has enormous power, which helps offset the swing and miss. 

I do not hate Collins, I just struggle to understand how any fan could reasonable pencil him in to regular at bats in 2020? He cannot be our main option at DH, because if he flops we would be screwed, with no viable in house alternatives. 

 

That's why it's smart to sign Grandal.  Let Collins DH almost every day, and if he flops, McCann can be your DH.  That's also why I like the idea of signing Castellanos to play RF.  He can always slide into the DH spot if need be.

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