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Sox in on Marcell Ozuna? I mean, maybe. Or not.

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What makes everyone think Ozuna is a worse right fielder than the other butchers we’ve looked at?  Because he’s a big dude and he wears his hat sideways?  Because he’s had some bad highlights?

 

The dude is pretty talented and has had good seasons even patrolling CF.  We KNOW Castellanos and guys like Mancini are atrocious fielders, among the worst in baseball. 
 

He’s also a positive regression hitting candidate, balances the lineup given his ability to hit RH, and has upside for more.

 

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3 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Just want to say this:

Either Ozuna is a solid defender, or no one should be referencing advanced defensive stats again. Because you can’t support things like DRS and UZR and then also call Ozuna a bad defender. 
 

I’m not going to pretend to have watched Ozuna enough to have a valid opinion on his D either way, but there seems to be some hypocrisy going on. 

Or, hear me out...

There are more than two advanced stats out there for defense, and taking an all-or-nothing "no one should ever reference advanced defensive stats again if you disagree with two in particular!" approach doesn't make any sense

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Let's go back to operating in the world of facts. Until last season, Baseball Savant's outs above average had Ozuna as exactly average defensively and that metric as mentioned compares him against outfielders at all positions on the field. Other metrics have always liked his defense. As far as I can tell, this bad-defense narrative exists only because of the couple terrible plays at the wall he had.

Worth noting that he at least used to have a strong arm but played through a shoulder injury in 2018 and said he didn't have his strength back in the beginning of 2019 following his offseason surgery.

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Just now, Jose Abreu said:

Or, hear me out...

There are more than two advanced stats out there for defense, and taking an all-or-nothing "no one should ever reference advanced defensive stats again if you disagree with two in particular!" approach doesn't make any sense

Where does he rank along with guys like Castellanos in jumps and other next-gen stats?

 

We’re acting like it’s Ozuna vs a bunch of good outfielders.   It’s not.  Most of the guys available for RF are AWFUL in the field, especially some of the options this board favors. 

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2 minutes ago, Jake said:

Let's go back to operating in the world of facts. Until last season, Baseball Savant's outs above average had Ozuna as exactly average defensively and that metric as mentioned compares him against outfielders at all positions on the field. Other metrics have always liked his defense. As far as I can tell, this bad-defense narrative exists only because of the couple terrible plays at the wall he had.

 

It actually has him as below average literally every single year other than 2017

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Ozuna did win a gold glove in 2017.  Maybe he is bad now though.  Either way, he and Castellanos are the best two options to fill RF without giving up a lot of talent.  I won’t complain if the Sox nab him.

If you can’t sign one of the top two starters, sign the top catcher and one of the top two outfielders available.  I am Hahn’s biggest critic but some of you guys must be forgetting the many prior years of depressing hot stove in which our big acquisitions were Mat Latos and Jimmy Rollins.  😂

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2 minutes ago, username said:

Where does he rank along with guys like Castellanos in jumps and other next-gen stats?

 

We’re acting like it’s Ozuna vs a bunch of good outfielders.   It’s not.  Most of the guys available for RF are AWFUL in the field, especially some of the options this board favors. 

He's better than Castellanos in most categories. And I agree that he isn't nearly as bad as many are making him out to be. I just am seeing a lot of people saying things about certain stats that are categorically false. I would be fine with an Ozuna signing

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You can’t move Jimenez to DH because Abreu will be there sooner or later...

Other than his two huge outliers, he has been a pretty consistent 2.5ish fWAR player in 3 of the past 4 years...now whether that’s worth $60-80 million instead of a Calhoun at 1.5 or Joc’s positional versatility at 2.5-3.5 (but more of a platoon hitter), who knows.

Edited by caulfield12

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On 11/29/2019 at 11:06 PM, SoxAce said:

I said Marte has never played RF in his career, he hasn't. (Heyward has never played LF in his career FYI) The Royals once upon a time tried Alex Gordon in RF because of his athleticism.. he wasn't that good out there so they left him in LF instead and he's been one of the best defensive LFs in the game for about a decade.

If we wanted to go get a good defensive LF with a good arm who is right handed with power, why not just go after Ozuna who is a free agent without giving up assets? 

Ha... if true... called it. @soxfan2014 @ChiliIrishHammock24

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9 minutes ago, username said:

What makes everyone think Ozuna is a worse right fielder than the other butchers we’ve looked at?

 

Yea his defensive metrics say otherwise. Not nearly as bad as some are making him out to be. 

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18 minutes ago, HahnsKiddieTable said:

Any chance a Joc trade still happens if this deal goes through and we put Ozuna at DH most the time?

I would love that. 

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4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

It actually has him as below average literally every single year other than 2017

-2 + 3 + -1 = 0

0 = average

 

He was randomly varying around a long-term norm of being an average outfielder

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I'd be much more interested in scrutiny of Ozuna's bat which has shown more variation than his defense, which multiple metrics have shown him to be average or better at over many years.

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1 hour ago, tray said:

Reverse discrimination. I am a Republican.

Just tilt your head to the right when you look at him. 

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A lot of people overrating defense here...and ozuna isn’t even that bad of a fielder to begin with. He’d be a really solid signing imo. He’s got a lot of upside based on his hard hit rate and exit velo. They have money to spend and ozuna definitely isn’t a bad way to spend it. Have to get him or castellanos 

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3 minutes ago, Jake said:

-2 + 3 + -1 = 0

0 = average

 

He was randomly varying around a long-term norm of being an average outfielder

I see what you mean. I was looking at his average percentile ranking by year rather than the raw total.

 

Either way, I don't think it's fair to throw out 2019 (his worst defensive year) just as I don't think it would be fair to throw out 2017 (his best defensive year). I like UZR and DRS for non-1B infielders, but not as much for outfielders, so I'm struggling with understanding his variance in OAA. 

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I only see the Sox obtaining one outfielder this offseason but an outfield of Ozuna / Robert / Joc with Eloy at DH sure would be nice.  But the Sox seem insistent on Eloy learning LF.

Edited by Moan4Yoan

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4 minutes ago, Jake said:

I'd be much more interested in scrutiny of Ozuna's bat which has shown more variation than his defense, which multiple metrics have shown him to be average or better at over many years.

Well, yeah....he’s got 4.5 and 5 fWAR seasons on his resume.  
But signing him expecting those numbers again at age 29 isn’t the likeliest outcome here.

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Avi has very good hard hit and exit velocities.  Ozuna's bat just doesn't blow me away and the defense seems questionable.  He is about a two WAR player and looks like he is going to cost a lot compared to some alternatives.  We could use a lefty for balance and need to improve OBP.  He had the second highest OBP of his career last year at .328

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Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

I only see the Sox obtaining one outfielder this offseason but an outfield of Ozuna / Robert / Joc with Eloy at DH sure would be nice.

Where do Vaughn/Abreu play in 2021?

Trading significant assets for Pederson seems unlikely...unless Grandal, Ryu and Pederson are all best buddies from their Dodgers’ days.

Then they’d need to go out and spend more money again to replace Pederson after this season.   Maybe if they fill in the blanks with Ryu or Keuchel and some bullpen help first...then we can argue about Pederson as a finishing touch to get them from 83-85 to high 80’s in wins.

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, yeah....he’s got 4.5 and 5 fWAR seasons on his resume.  
But signing him expecting those numbers again at age 29 isn’t the likeliest outcome here.

I don't think anyone is expecting that by he is projected for a hair over 3 WAR next year. If he can give us three 3 WAR seasons that would be fine at at a salary around 17m a year.

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Where do Vaughn/Abreu play in 2021?

Trading significant assets for Pederson seems unlikely...unless Grandal, Ryu and Pederson are all best buddies from their Dodgers’ days.

Then they’d need to go out and spend more money again to replace Pederson after this season.   Maybe if they fill in the blanks with Ryu or Keuchel and some bullpen help first...then we can argue about Pederson as a finishing touch to get them from 83-85 to high 80’s in wins.

Joc is only under contract for one year.  Worry about it after the season.  But yes, unless Joc came cheaply, I wouldn’t be interested.

Edited by Moan4Yoan

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1 minute ago, BamaDoc said:

Avi has very good hard hit and exit velocities.  Ozuna's bat just doesn't blow me away and the defense seems questionable.  He is about a two WAR player and looks like he is going to cost a lot compared to some alternatives.  We could use a lefty for balance and need to improve OBP.  He had the second highest OBP of his career last year at .328

2.4 2.6 and 2.8 along with the 4.5 and 5.0 seasons argue he’s much closer to 3 than 2.   Or, to be more accurate...expected 2-3 fWAR.

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