Zack Wheeler: To the Phils (5yr 118); Sox had made BIGGER offer

[Saufley]

4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

At some point we are gonna have to take a risk to be great. Otherwise we become the As and Twins

Or the White Sox.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

It's another way of getting bad contracts. Both Verlander's, as he was signed through this season when acquired and Greinke's  have had hints of dead money. Face it, the Tigers wanted out of the contract. They didn't get a huge haul for Verlander. Arizona got a bigger haul but still have to pay $24 million for Greinke to pitch elsewhere, and they think that is more than worth it.

If you are serious about signing one of the top free agents, you better be prepared to pay them for years your people will tell you they probably won't be productive. It was a much smaller gamble back in the day, but JR got Carlton Fisk because he guaranteed him 3 years. Roland Hemond advised him Fisk probably had 2 more productive seasons left. That worked out tremendously, just like the Verlander trade did for the Astros. But I guarantee you, their people thought they would probably be eating money at the end of his deal. 

Greinke just got traded for real assets. Nothing about his contract ever said dead money.

Stop moving the goal posts. I said you didnt have to wastefully spend in FA to win a world series. That was my point. The Astros didnt do that. 

[Balta1701]

 

Just now, cjgalloway said:

I don't think anyone here will be mad if we pass at those numbers.. He's proven to be a #2 pitcher.  There's potential for more. Not seeing that is asinine

When we also are out on Cole and Strasburg I'd be much more annoyed. 

If this team isn't going to pay for pitching in the front half of the rotation they need to develop it, and they've developed 3 top half of the rotation pitchers over a full decade+.

[wegner]

Time to pivot to Madbum?

Worst case scenario is getting totally shutout in the decent SP pool this offseason.

[caulfield12]

Just now, Saufley said:

Or the White Sox.

It forces Kopech, Cease or Lopez to be great...at least one...and Giolito to maintain his level.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

That is speculation. We don't know how long he will be good for. 

Sure, but the aging curve for guys like wheeler isnt great. It doesnt mean there arent the max Scherzer and justin Verlander of the world but they are few and far between.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

It forces Kopech, Cease or Lopez to be great...at least one...and Giolito to maintain his level.

Personally I do think Kopech will be a very very good pitcher.. But I would love to ease that pressure.

[SonofaRoache]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It's another way of getting bad contracts. Both Verlander's, as he was signed through this season when acquired and Greinke's  have had hints of dead money. Face it, the Tigers wanted out of the contract. They didn't get a huge haul for Verlander. Arizona got a bigger haul but still have to pay $24 million for Greinke to pitch elsewhere, and they think that is more than worth it.

If you are serious about signing one of the top free agents, you better be prepared to pay them for years your people will tell you they probably won't be productive. It was a much smaller gamble back in the day, but JR got Carlton Fisk because he guaranteed him 3 years. Roland Hemond advised him Fisk probably had 2 more productive seasons left. That worked out tremendously, just like the Verlander trade did for the Astros. But I guarantee you, their people thought they would probably be eating money at the end of his deal. 

Agreed. How will we ever sign a high end FA if we are the team afraid to go big? We will always be outbid. I20 million is a lot of money but that's not back breaking if the last two years of the deal are over pays. It's not by any means a mega deal. 

[maloney.adam]

3 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

meh.. Sure Ryu is the better pitcher when healthy... Sadly he's never healthy.  He has worse injury history than wheeler lol.  I'll take the potential of wheeler

The reason why I mentioned Ryu is he had the best ERA last year but I do agree with you he is just as injury prone so it’s kind of hit or miss. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

When we also are out on Cole and Strasburg I'd be much more annoyed. 

If this team isn't going to pay for pitching in the front half of the rotation they need to develop it, and they've developed 3 top half of the rotation pitchers over a full decade+.

That's a lot, ftr. I think you somehow meant your bottom paragraph as a shot at the team but its actually a compliment.

[SonofaRoache]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sure, but the aging curve for guys like wheeler isnt great. It doesnt mean there arent the max Scherzer and justin Verlander of the world but they are few and far between.

But what FA pitcher that is very good will we be able to sign if we can't take risks? Contracts moving forward are going to be no different. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, SonofaRoache said:

But what FA pitcher that is very good will we be able to sign if we can't take risks? Contracts moving forward are going to be no different. 

Almost none.

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Greinke just got traded for real assets. Nothing about his contract ever said dead money.

Stop moving the goal posts. I said you didnt have to wastefully spend in FA to win a world series. That was my point. The Astros didnt do that. 

He's 35 and owed $70 million the next 2 seasons. Dead money is certainly a good possiblilty. 

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Agreed. How will we ever sign a high end FA if we are the team afraid to go big? We will always be outbid. I20 million is a lot of money but that's not back breaking if the last two years of the deal are over pays. It's not by any means a mega deal. 

Didn’t we just get Grandal by being the best offer?

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Personally I do think Kopech will be a very very good pitcher.. But I would love to ease that pressure.

Or if he’s a very good pitcher then you’d just have three very good pitchers instead of two and salary we can only poach older vets or average players with:

[SonofaRoache]

4 minutes ago, wegner said:

Time to pivot to Madbum?

Worst case scenario is getting totally shutout in the decent SP pool this offseason.

Madbums market will sky rocket as the teams who miss out on Wheeler will turn there. He too, will be overpaid. 

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Do you think we went this deep into this process because we are making a run at those 3.  Why wouldn't we just go directly to Cole and Stras and backup the brinks truck and say what Uniform # would you like.  This sounds like target 1A for the sox. 

Because Cole and Strasburg aren’t signing until February. Maybe the Sox change course and start talking to those two if Wheeler signs elsewhere. 

Wheeler are 6/$125M+ is more than likely going to be a rough contract. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sure, but the aging curve for guys like wheeler isnt great. It doesnt mean there arent the max Scherzer and justin Verlander of the world but they are few and far between.

"Almost every team winning the world series spends substantial money on pitching and winds up with bad contracts for guys who are too old" 

LARR: yeah but the Astros are kinda an exception, the exception proves you don't need to do that.

"Zach Wheeler might not age the best but sometimes these pitchers continue producing."

LARR: yeah there are exceptions but they are few and far between.

[RTC]

It's about risk aversion.  Most of the best teams know that you have to gamble and take on a level of risk (usually in the form of contract length) that on the surface appears stupid, but the market dictates that that's the price you have to pay if you want the best players.  This organization just doesn't seem to have big enough balls.  Man, I hope I'm wrong.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, fathom said:

Didn’t we just get Grandal by being the best offer?

I don't think we are discussing 74 million dollar deals.. We are talking large, 100+ million.. If we refuse to take risks there we will never amount to anything,

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, SonofaRoache said:

But what FA pitcher that is very good will we be able to sign if we can't take risks? Contracts moving forward are going to be no different. 

Everyone isnt overpaid in free agency. Some guys drum up more market than others. If bum signed for 4 years, 82 million could one really argue that 6/125 for wheeler made sense? I dont like Bumgarner at all and wheeler is probably my top target this off season and I think that's a bit much.

Ftr, I want wheeler. I'd give him the money because I have an absurdly high projection and forecast for him, and think he can outpitch strasberg in this contract. I just also know that my valuation is really high and based on what wheeler has actually done, and his set of most likely outcomes, it could be argued to be a significant overpay.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, SonofaRoache said:

Madbums market will sky rocket as the teams who miss out on Wheeler will turn there. He too, will be overpaid. 

I want nothing to do with Bumgarner.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

That's a lot, ftr. I think you somehow meant your bottom paragraph as a shot at the team but its actually a compliment.

Not in the least. 3 pitchers over a decade plus? Compare that to Cleveland who has something like 7 or 8?

[Saufley]

1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

Personally I do think Kopech will be a very very good pitcher.. But I would love to ease that pressure.

Yep. 

 

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

But what FA pitcher that is very good will we be able to sign if we can't take risks? Contracts moving forward are going to be no different. 

We keep waiting for the big class of FA players and then the FO fails. I like the Grandal signing, but we need more. I'll be patient and give them more time, but like the players on the field the FO also needs to produce!

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Greinke just got traded for real assets. Nothing about his contract ever said dead money.

Stop moving the goal posts. I said you didnt have to wastefully spend in FA to win a world series. That was my point. The Astros didnt do that. 

The trade for Greinke came at a high cost for Houston, though, which gave up three of its top five prospects according to MLB Pipeline: first baseman Seth Beer (No. 3) and right-handers J.B. Bukauskas (No. 4) and Corbin Martin (No. 5), in addition to infielder Josh Rojas (No. 22) and cash going to Arizona. Martin recently had Tommy John surgery and is out for the season.

https://www.mlb.com/news/zack-greinke-astros-trade
 

Without all the money coming from AZ, it doesn’t happen.  The Astros’ system was really down by then...none of those three guys are comparable to Giolito, Moncada, Kopech, Lopez, Cease or Jimenez.