Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Dominikk85

What is a realistic payroll ceiling for the sox?

Recommended Posts

We obviously know they won't get close to the luxury tax anytime soon, but what is their payroll ceiling?

I'm not talking 2019 but the ceiling during the next 5 years, obviously they need to allow for some room to go up as players hit arbitration.

So far the highest payroll was around 130m in 2011 which is like 150m in today's baseball dollars. That was an outlier though, other than that the highest payrolls were like 115-120.

Do you think a 150m payroll is realistic towards the end of the window? Talking about what will happen not what should happen of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 teams last year were 168+ mil payrolls. If the Sox don't reach there, that likely means Moncada and/or Giolito walk or get traded at some point. For now I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, since they have in the past skirted with a top 5 payroll.  We'll see if they do that again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe 160 + makes the top third of MLB.  A major market such as the WS have zero reason not to be in the top third of baseball.  I believe we will spend this amount in 2020.

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope they get to 180+ for 1-2 years at the end of the wIndow. Even if that means losing money they saved so much money in the rebuild that they should be able to go 20m into the negative for 2 years especially since they can save money after the window again if they start another rebuild in 2026 or so.

Unfortunately many owners seem to not be willing to accept a single year loss of money even if the bottom line over 5 years is distinctly positive.

Edited by Dominikk85
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Could see them adding Wheeler, Hamels, and Castellanos/Joc along with a few lesser FAs which is mind blowing to me, not sure where that puts us

$125-130 million range before the “few lesser FAs”. 

Edited by ChiSox59

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

$125-130 million range before the “few lesser FAs”. 

Would love Hamels for 2/$28 with an option maybe if possible

Wheeler improves this rotation and team but tossing him nine digits is ludicrous to me, he is inconsistent...this team needs inning eating vets

Kopech and Rodon will be on the way back, Cease hopefully takes a steps forward, maybe Lopez does, and hopefully Gio continues his success...Maybe a Dunning appearance by Sept....Hamels allows this team to compete now and invest big money down the road appropriately

regardless I'm excited for this team next year

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

I hope they get to 180+ for 1-2 years at the end of the wIndow. Even if that means losing money they saved so much money in the rebuild that they should be able to go 20m into the negative for 2 years especially since they can save money after the window again if they start another rebuild in 2026 or so.

Unfortunately many owners seem to not be willing to accept a single year loss of money even if the bottom line over 5 years is distinctly positive.

Lol c'mon, you really think this ownership group would do that? They care about making money first and foremost. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Could see them adding Wheeler, Hamels, and Castellanos/Joc along with a few lesser FAs which is mind blowing to me, not sure where that puts us

Well they can't go to 150+ this year because they need to leave some room for when arb salaries kick in. Unless they give out 1-2 year contracts that run out when arb for the core starts.

Edited by Dominikk85

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the window is just finally opening why do people think we're spending like it's abut to close? Really hope some of these proposed deals (Wheeler) don't hold us back in the future

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MLB average over the past couple years is about $135 million.  Sox have "saved" about $30 million per year the past two years.   In the past 25 years, revenues across MLB have increased by about 15% per year.  With that said, Sox payroll should easily be about $140-$150 million this year and by the end of the window in 4-5 years be pushing $190-$200.  There is money for nice things and for Jerry to make money

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Wisebri224 said:

MLB average over the past couple years is about $135 million.  Sox have "saved" about $30 million per year the past two years.   In the past 25 years, revenues across MLB have increased by about 15% per year.  With that said, Sox payroll should easily be about $140-$150 million this year and by the end of the window in 4-5 years be pushing $190-$200.  There is money for nice things and for Jerry to make money

The Sox have been a top 5 payroll team before, and if they sniff real contention they will be again.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sox going to be hard pressed to eclipse $120M at this point.  

$86M committed today including all arb and pre-arb players.  Even if you add Ryu/Keuchel at $20M and then a backend guy like Wood for $10M, still only at $116M.  So much for those $160M payrolls some people wanted to believe would happen in 2020.  I was hopeful for $130M range, but that's going to be tough to get to at this point.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Sox going to be hard pressed to eclipse $120M at this point.  

$86M committed today including all arb and pre-arb players.  Even if you add Ryu/Keuchel at $20M and then a backend guy like Wood for $10M, still only at $116M.  So much for those $160M payrolls some people wanted to believe would happen in 2020.  I was hopeful for $130M range, but that's going to be tough to get to at this point.  

I would be happy with your Even If scenario at this time.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wegner said:

I would be happy with your Even If scenario at this time.

I would have signed up for a Grandal/Ryu/Mazara/pitcher x before the offseason started, but I'm also an idiot. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mqr said:

I would have signed up for a Grandal/Ryu/Mazara/pitcher x before the offseason started, but I'm also an idiot. 

I think a lot of people would have even a couple months ago, when it was conventional wisdom that 2020 was a year early.  But the quick Grandal signing followed by the Wheeler sweepstakes gave everyone (me included) 2020 fever.  In any event, it is indeed clear they’re not serious about spending yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we please, please stop with this pauper routine?

There are 30 MLB ownership groups. These organizations know exactly what it would take financially to compete. 

The Reinsdorf group could up the anty to 200 million TODAY if they so desired. I am so sick and tired of these apologists allowing Reinsdorf to get off the hook with this crying poor routine.  If the kitchen is too hot, they can sell the team and move on.

However, they're not going to sell because the White Sox ARE profitable. 

The ownership group is not comprised of affluent sportsmen.

They are savvy businessmen who are in it for the personal financial enrichment.. period.

Stop being played.

Reinsdorf got exposed with that crack about keep the base (what's left of it) thirsty. That"s sounds so like him.

And don't think for one second elite free agents are not swayed by the level of ownership commitment.

Reinsdorf will live in infamy as the guy that whined about paying Michael Jordan fair market value.

Edited by GradMc
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And we have a brand new broadcasting rights deal... supposedly!!!  Interestingly, they don't want the numbers of the Sox per game increase to get out, since it hasn't been reportedly publicly anywhere...or they're totally embarrassed to be getting less money the next five years before going back into renegotiations?

Edited by caulfield12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Sox going to be hard pressed to eclipse $120M at this point.  

$86M committed today including all arb and pre-arb players.  Even if you add Ryu/Keuchel at $20M and then a backend guy like Wood for $10M, still only at $116M.  So much for those $160M payrolls some people wanted to believe would happen in 2020.  I was hopeful for $130M range, but that's going to be tough to get to at this point.  

What is particularly troublesome is that they need bullpen help and we're watching relievers come off the board without them seemingly sniffing around any of them. Failing to get adequate relief pitching help would be another way to punt on this season and at least in the Fangraphs world, 6 of the top 7 options are already off the board. This is a position where they should be getting something done right now - when you wait until January the risk goes up and you find a Kelvin Herrera as the guy you nab. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought I read that the Sox new TV deal paid $750k  per game which when multiplied by 162 equates to approximately 

120 million which in itself covers payroll. This does not include national tv money, concession revenue, parking, and many other revenue streams. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×