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SoxBlanco

Successful Plan B; What’s Next?

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56 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I think part of it is also that it’s 9:30 PM on a Friday...and also, it hasn’t been that long since the tweet was posted. 

That’s probably true, I’m off work the rest of the year so days are all the same to me for now.

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Does anyone know how long Kopech has to stay down next year to earn us an extra year of control?   I show he’s got 41 days of service time and believe that 172 days count as a year.  With the season being 187 days long and starting for us on 3/26, I believe he’d have to be with Charlotte through 5/20.  Does that sound right?

Also, what’s nice is Charlotte’s season does not start until 4/9 and they only play about 39 games through 5/20.  So if you want to assume Kopech gets eight starts down there at 4 innings per (32 innings), he could still make 22 starts for the Sox at 5 innings each (110).  Or more likely, by skipping him once a month he could make 18 starts at 6 innings each (108) and be right at a 140 innings limit.

IMO, that former scenario should be the plan.  Losing out on 32 rusty Kopech innings will not be the end of the world for us world with Gio as a more than competent place holder.  It also allows him pitch the rest of the way once called up and without having to tax the bullpen by committing to any overly short starts.  Now just go get Ryu or Keuchel so this plan is actually possible.

 

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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Does anyone know how long Kopech has to stay down next year to earn us an extra year of control?   I show he’s got 41 days of service time and believe that 172 days count as a year.  With the season being 187 days long and starting for us on 3/26, I believe he’d have to be with Charlotte through 5/20.  Does that sound right?

Also, what’s nice is Charlotte’s season does not start until 4/9 and they only play about 39 games through 5/20.  So if you want to assume Kopech gets eight starts down there at 4 innings per (32 innings), he could still make 22 starts for the Sox at 5 innings each (110).  Or more likely, by skipping him once a month he could make 18 starts at 6 innings each (108) and be right at a 140 innings limit.

IMO, that former scenario should be the plan.  Losing out on 32 rusty Kopech innings will not be the end of the world for us world with Gio as a more than competent place holder.  It also allows him pitch the rest of the way once called up and without having to tax the bullpen by committing to any overly short starts.  Now just go get Ryu or Keuchel so this plan is actually possible.

 

My calculations (which could be wrong) have May 20 as the day for Kopech and April 10 as the day for Robert/Madrigal. 

I didn’t realize the Charlotte season started on April 9. Now, I didn’t expect the Sox to call up Robert on the very first day after securing the extra year, but it looks like he won’t get much time at all in Charlotte. 

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Frankly, at this point, I really don't much care how much the Sox spend on their acquisition for another starter. I just want them to get someone, who is acceptable and capable of filling a role, as a middle, to bottom half, arm in the rotation. I would be satisfied with Keuchel, Ryu or Price. My greater concern has been the idea that they would make a trade and give up prospects, upon whom we are counting, to keep this competitive window open. Our top starters are going to have to come from Giolito, Cease and, or Kopech. Knowing that there will be bonafide Major Leaguers, in the 4 & 5 spots, and that there will now be some depth, is reassuring. 

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16 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Frankly, at this point, I really don't much care how much the Sox spend on their acquisition for another starter. I just want them to get someone, who is acceptable and capable of filling a role, as a middle, to bottom half, arm in the rotation. I would be satisfied with Keuchel, Ryu or Price. My greater concern has been the idea that they would make a trade and give up prospects, upon whom we are counting, to keep this competitive window open. Our top starters are going to have to come from Giolito, Cease and, or Kopech. Knowing that there will be bonafide Major Leaguers, in the 4 & 5 spots, and that there will now be some depth, is reassuring. 

Just sad how our expectations have become so lowered...I guess we’re all conditioned by so much sustained mediocrity that it’s become normalized to be content with just a .500ish team after 3 1/2 years of this.

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45 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

My calculations (which could be wrong) have May 20 as the day for Kopech and April 10 as the day for Robert/Madrigal. 

I didn’t realize the Charlotte season started on April 9. Now, I didn’t expect the Sox to call up Robert on the very first day after securing the extra year, but it looks like he won’t get much time at all in Charlotte. 

The Sox start a series against the Twins on 5/21 and another 5/29.  I think they call up Kopech sometime in that range.

No idea what they do with Robert.  Got to give him at least a week or two down there.  Hopefully they can find a way to extend him.  Same applies to Madrigal, although they may be less eager to lock him given his less traditional skillset.

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I'm okay with how this offseason is shaping up. Sure, Wheeler would have been a great addition but not meant to be. I actually like the addition of Mazara and believe he will pleasantly surprise. Gio is a good get. I'd like to see another rotation piece but not if it means 4 yrs. of Keuchel (would maybe go 3 + option for either Keuchel or Ryu). My preference is to seek a trade (guessing that is exactly what Hahn is doing). It wouldn't surprise me if we pull off an interesting trade that will make us among the big winners this offseason (am still hoping for Price/Benintendi but probably wishful thinking).

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10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Just sad how our expectations have become so lowered...I guess we’re all conditioned by so much sustained mediocrity that it’s become normalized to be content with just a .500ish team after 3 1/2 years of this.

I am not sure they are lowered to a .500 team.  There are way to many variables. I think w the assumed improvement of Eloy and Moncada and a very solid year again from Anderson this could be a .500 team.  The addition of Grandal, Robert and Madrigal  as well as a RF and the quality of the Central Division should mean .500 is very realistic. Then the pitching staff determines how much better than .500 we will be.  Will Gio be as good as his 2019 , will Cease jump to a #2 type or drop to a #5 and  how big of an impact will  Kopech have. Finally, who will the 2nd SP be.  

Yes it could be a .500ish team but in this division it could also challenge for a playoff spot. Way too early before the roster is even finalized to fold the tents yet. 

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24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Just sad how our expectations have become so lowered...I guess we’re all conditioned by so much sustained mediocrity that it’s become normalized to be content with just a .500ish team after 3 1/2 years of this.

Look at that lineup.  Envision what the pitching staff will look like after adding Ryu/Keuchel/Price and a top reliever or 2 this offseason.  This is not a .500ish team.  It has an excellent chance to win the division.  Depending on how fast Madrigal & Robert acclimate to the ML game...might actually compete deep into playoffs.

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14 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Look at that lineup.  Envision what the pitching staff will look like after adding Ryu/Keuchel/Price and a top reliever or 2 this offseason.  This is not a .500ish team.  It has an excellent chance to win the division.  Depending on how fast Madrigal & Robert acclimate to the ML game...might actually compete deep into playoffs.

Sure, beating up the Royals and Tigers shouldn’t be so hard...maybe even the Indians, but we’re still just the 9th or 10th best team in the entire AL as things currently stand.

We’re arguably just as close to trading Moncada and Giolito as we are winning the World Series.

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27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, beating up the Royals and Tigers shouldn’t be so hard...maybe even the Indians, but we’re still just the 9th or 10th best team in the entire AL as things currently stand.

We’re arguably just as close to trading Moncada and Giolito as we are winning the World Series.

Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rays, A's.

Those are the only teams I can say for sure will be better than the Sox. Maybe Boston.

Angels are probably a toss up. Indians for now until they trade Lindor.

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2 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rays, A's.

Those are the only teams I can say for sure will be better than the Sox. Maybe Boston.

Angels are probably a toss up. Indians for now until they trade Lindor.

We can argue Texas, Boston, Cleveland and LAA...but none of these teams can realistically compete with the top two.

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47 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Look at that lineup.  Envision what the pitching staff will look like after adding Ryu/Keuchel/Price and a top reliever or 2 this offseason.  This is not a .500ish team.  It has an excellent chance to win the division.  Depending on how fast Madrigal & Robert acclimate to the ML game...might actually compete deep into playoffs.

Sox played near .500 ball before the ASB last season before injury and lack of depth caught up.  And that was before any of the new additions.  I too think they are aiming much higher than .500. 

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ZiPS had the Sox projected at around 30 WAR before the Gio signing. Add Gio at 1.5 wins and they're at around 32. That's around a 80 win team. If ZiPS has us as a .500 team now, some luck/hits on our prospects will easily have us in contention. Their projections had Robert at 2.5 wins, Kopech at 1.9, and Madrigal/Mendick at 1.9. All fairly feasible assuming they stay healthy and get playing time like we all think they will this year.

Edited by chw42

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Give me Aaron Sanchez, Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Robbie Erlin, Trevor Cahill if the Sox don’t sign Ryu or Kuechel. I’d much rather have the Sox pay a FA than trade prospects as the farm is quite thin and they really need to string some good drafts together to rebuild some depth there. 
 

I hope they sign some intriguing guys to some minor league deals, if they plan on competing they need 10 arms to get through a season having guys like Chris Volstad is not going to cut it anymore. 

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48 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, beating up the Royals and Tigers shouldn’t be so hard...maybe even the Indians, but we’re still just the 9th or 10th best team in the entire AL as things currently stand.

We’re arguably just as close to trading Moncada and Giolito as we are winning the World Series.

The Sox have the potential to go through the roof this coming season. I think that's why many of us are frustrated with the *so far* poor off-season. It didn't feel going in to the winter that it would be that hard to patch these obvious holes - given how open the payroll was compared to all other teams in MLB.

But there's still time. I mean, if the Sox signed Castellanos and Ryu, then traded Collins for a bullpen arm - the sky would be the limit this season. You could have a loaded lineup and loaded pitching staff if a few things come together.

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1 minute ago, Sarava said:

The Sox have the potential to go through the roof this coming season. I think that's why many of us are frustrated with the *so far* poor off-season. It didn't feel going in to the winter that it would be that hard to patch these obvious holes - given how open the payroll was compared to all other teams in MLB.

But there's still time. I mean, if the Sox signed Castellanos and Ryu, then traded Collins for a bullpen arm - the sky would be the limit this season. You could have a loaded lineup and loaded pitching staff if a few things come together.

 

3 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

Give me Aaron Sanchez, Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Robbie Erlin, Trevor Cahill if the Sox don’t sign Ryu or Kuechel. I’d much rather have the Sox pay a FA than trade prospects as the farm is quite thin and they really need to string some good drafts together to rebuild some depth there. 
 

I hope they sign some intriguing guys to some minor league deals, if they plan on competing they need 10 arms to get through a season having guys like Chris Volstad is not going to cut it anymore. 

That will never happen the. White sox do not run their organization like that, they continue to run this organization with zero aggressiveness.

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11 minutes ago, Sarava said:

The Sox have the potential to go through the roof this coming season. I think that's why many of us are frustrated with the *so far* poor off-season. It didn't feel going in to the winter that it would be that hard to patch these obvious holes - given how open the payroll was compared to all other teams in MLB.

But there's still time. I mean, if the Sox signed Castellanos and Ryu, then traded Collins for a bullpen arm - the sky would be the limit this season. You could have a loaded lineup and loaded pitching staff if a few things come together.

I like your thinking but they in my opinion are not  signing castellanos  or ryu

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All of this makes the miss on Wheeler that much harder to swallow.  Why could they not have just said, here is a $10 million signing bonus in addition to contract.  No need to re-litigate just needed to vent.  Let’s see what happens by start of spring training.  Merry Christmas everyone!

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Sox start a series against the Twins on 5/21 and another 5/29.  I think they call up Kopech sometime in that range.

No idea what they do with Robert.  Got to give him at least a week or two down there.  Hopefully they can find a way to extend him.  Same applies to Madrigal, although they may be less eager to lock him given his less traditional skillset.

Madrigal might be easier to extend and I see him as the likely of the 2 to maybe take a very team friendly deal (maybe not in offseason but year or two).

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33 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

Give me Aaron Sanchez, Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Robbie Erlin, Trevor Cahill if the Sox don’t sign Ryu or Kuechel. I’d much rather have the Sox pay a FA than trade prospects as the farm is quite thin and they really need to string some good drafts together to rebuild some depth there. 
 

I hope they sign some intriguing guys to some minor league deals, if they plan on competing they need 10 arms to get through a season having guys like Chris Volstad is not going to cut it anymore. 

I'm in the same boat. You currently have Fulmer or Covey holding down a spot or Kopech. Definitely not acceptable.

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Why not front load a four year contract for Keuchel? Give him four years, overpay him this year and have the money go down at the back end of the contract so it’s not an albatross when they have to re-up with some of their young guys.

Edited by Middle Buffalo

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

We can argue Texas, Boston, Cleveland and LAA...but none of these teams can realistically compete with the top two.

Once Cleveland trades Lindor they aren't better than the Sox. Texas won 78 games last year and only added Kluber & he doesn't seem as good as he once was. Angels still have no one to pitch. Boston seems to want to go in a direction of a rebuild.

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16 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

Why not front load a four year contract for Keuchel? Give him four years, overpay him this year and have the money go down at the back end of the contract so it’s not an albatross when they have to re-up with some of their young guys.

Totally agree with that strategy. You have to believe that  the Sox anticipate who they need to sign long term - Moncada, Robert and possibly o a few others.  The Sox are not just being cheapskates by not blowing their budget  on FA contracts this off-season. 

Given that, if they stand pat as far as mega million dollar FA acquisitions I would be quite happy with Grandal, Mazara and Gio Gonzales, plus re-upping Abreu.  Meanwhile, dumpster dive for a few inning-eating pitchers and wait until Spring Training,,,, unless of course some team makes Rick & Kenny an offer they simply can't refuse. Patience is sometimes rewarded in these circumstances.

 

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