Padres / rays: Tommy Pham trade

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

12 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Bit of an odd trade, but in the end, it does...make sense.

For the Rays, this is a trade admitting that they have to have a surreal low payroll. They cut out Pham who's old and getting closer to FA for a younger Renfroe under more control and get an elite prospect back. It sucks for the fans and apparently the teammates (Snell --> Slapdick prospect), but it's... smart.

For the Padres they get their high OBP high WAR outfield superstar as they try to compete this year and next.

I just don't know whether I like the trade or not from either perspective. So many pros/cons. 

Either way it's a very juicy offseason so far.

Tommy Pham.....a superstar? Uhhhh what.

I like this trade a lot more for the Rays. But I also love when the Padres make bad moves, so this trade pleases me.

[iWiN4PreP]

Pham is an elite outfielder.

But after a day has gone on now, I really like this deal for the Rays. 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

4 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Pham is an elite outfielder.

But after a day has gone on now, I really like this deal for the Rays. 

Exactly 1 year he was a good defender.

Fangraphs defensive WAR....

0.6 WAR, 3 DRS

-4.0 WAR, -4 DRS

6.2 WAR, 11 DRS

-0.7 WAR, -2 DRS

-7.5 WAR. 1 DRS

 

Pham has played 1000 more innings in the OF than Renfroe has. Pham has a +9 DRS. Renfroe has a +27.

As I said in the other thread, Renfroe was someone I actually wanted the Sox to go after. He has become a good defender, he has a massive arm, and he has massive power. He definitely has flaws with contact skills, but I am willing to bet Renfroe is better over the next 2 years than Pham. Then you factor in Xavier Edwards and PTBNL for Jake Cronenworth, who admittedly sounds interesting given his massive leap offensively in AAA in 2019. 

But I just think any way you slice this for me, the Rays did very well.

 

Edited December 7, 2019 by ChiliIrishHammock24

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Exactly 1 year he was a good defender.

Fangraphs defensive WAR....

0.6 WAR, 3 DRS

-4.0 WAR, -4 DRS

6.2 WAR, 11 DRS

-0.7 WAR, -2 DRS

-7.5 WAR. 1 DRS

 

Pham has played 1000 more innings in the OF than Renfroe has. Pham has a +9 DRS. Renfroe has a +27.

As I said in the other thread, Renfroe was someone I actually wanted the Sox to go after. He has become a good defender, he has a massive arm, and he has massive power. He definitely has flaws with contact skills, but I am willing to bet Renfroe is better over the next 2 years than Pham. Then you factor in Xavier Edwards and PTBNL for Jake Cronenworth, who admittedly sounds interesting given his massive leap offensively in AAA in 2019. 

But I just think any way you slice this for me, the Rays did very well.

 

He also had a 562 ops in the second half with only six homers and 75  K’s in 174 at bats.  Batting average of .161!!!  Pitchers discovered the hole in his swing.  His outfield assists cancelled out his below average defense.   He’s not very mobile...and that will be even more pronounced on turf.

Edited December 7, 2019 by caulfield12

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

He also had a 562 ops in the second half with only six homers and 75  K’s in 174 at bats.  Batting average of .161!!!  Pitchers discovered the hole in his swing.  His outfield assists cancelled out his below average defense.   He’s not very mobile...and that will be even more pronounced on turf.

Where do you show him as being below average defensively? All the numbers + reports I've seen of his defense from 2019 say he has definitely improved.

[Dominikk85]

Renfroe has a lot of power and is a good fielder but with his high K rate and extreme pull approach he is a low obp guy.

Pham has a .370 career obp while renfroe is sub 300 to date in his career. There is more upside for renfroe but pham has a much better chance to  be a solid obp guy the next two years.

What hurts the padres is of course course giving up edwards while only getting a marginal prospect back. Not sure how much power edwards can gain but he is a quite solid prospect 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Where do you show him as being below average defensively? All the numbers + reports I've seen of his defense from 2019 say he has definitely improved.

I watched his team and the White Sox for 60-70 games...at least.  Eye test.  He wasn’t Reyes bad, but we would have been ultimately disappointed with him and Jimenez on the corners.

It’s the exact same reason the Padres dumped both, despite their all or nothing power numbers.

[caulfield12]

Just now, Dominikk85 said:

Renfroe has a lot of power and is a good fielder but with his high K rate and extreme pull approach he is a low obp guy.

Pham has a .370 career obp while renfroe is sub 300 to date in his career. There is more upside for renfroe but pham has a much better chance to  be a solid obp guy the next two years.

What hurts the padres is of course course giving up edwards while only getting a marginal prospect back. Not sure how much power edwards can gain but he is a quite solid prospect 

Sure, but they just drafted a much more dynamic version of him in Abrams.  The thinking has to be they can cheaply fill 2B on a year-by-year basis while they’re waiting.   Owen Miller had a “solid” AA season in the Texas League, and they like him a lot.

[bmags]

I actually think this trade is fine on both sides. I love Pham.

I just admire how explicit the buy low/sell high return was here for TB.

I also like Edwards a lot, he showed his current game is productive even as a guy challenged at his level, he doesn’t K and has tremendous speed for all the contact he makes. At 5’10, 175, he still has room to tap into acceptable power.