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Dallas Keuchel (discussion)...come on down!


steveno89
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9 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Semien / Samargaizasaehaaaa was largely attributed to Kenny Williams.

For at least the first two seasons of Hahn’s position in the GM chair it was believed that Kenny was still running the show.

That was his 3rd offseason as GM.

Frankie Montas for Todd Frazier isn't looking all that great either, although who knows about the steroids part. 

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That was his 3rd offseason as GM.

Frankie Montas for Todd Frazier isn't looking all that great either, although who knows about the steroids part. 

I thought Hahn became GM in 2013 and the Samadzgrasa trade was 2014.

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5 minutes ago, hi8is said:

I thought Hahn became GM in 2013 and the Samadzgrasa trade was 2014.

Would Sox fans give Keuchel a four year deal as I’ve heard the current ask is? I certainly would not. I don’t even love a three year deal with him. He’s a #4/5 moving forward on a good team.

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2 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Would Sox fans give Keuchel a four year deal as I’ve heard the current ask is? I certainly would not. I don’t even love a three year deal with him. He’s a #4/5 moving forward on a good team.

I wouldn’t either... and if this is really the market ( which it seems to be )... then I can certainly see a more viable path being a trade for a cost controlled number two type and a 1 year back of the rotation senior citizen.

We’ve got a couple months to go and have only missed one major target, despite having the best offer on the table.

Some are acting like the sky is falling but by opening day 2020 this team will look much better and will be on the 5 yard line toward contention.

By 2021 we should really be cooking.

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and I'll ask again, if we aren't going to pay market on anyone in this market, are we content with Gio, Cease, ReyLo, and 2 reclamation projects or minor trades Rick makes?  I'm not thrilled but we need at least one pitcher of MLB caliber.  Last year the average MLB pitcher has an ERA of 4.85.  The last 10 years it's always almost been over 4.50.  Bumgarner career ERA 3.13 , Ryu  2.98,  Keuchel 3.67.  I know we all thought these guys would be in the $15 million range and now it's upwards of 20, but their ERA's are almost a run below the average.  Finally, if you look at the top 50 pitchers by ERA last year that qualified, #50 (equivalent of a #2-3 pitcher?) is 4.45.  Just sayin.....

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1 minute ago, Wisebri224 said:

and I'll ask again, if we aren't going to pay market on anyone in this market, are we content with Gio, Cease, ReyLo, and 2 reclamation projects or minor trades Rick makes?  I'm not thrilled but we need at least one pitcher of MLB caliber.  Last year the average MLB pitcher has an ERA of 4.85.  The last 10 years it's always almost been over 4.50.  Bumgarner career ERA 3.13 , Ryu  2.98,  Keuchel 3.67.  I know we all thought these guys would be in the $15 million range and now it's upwards of 20, but their ERA's are almost a run below the average.  Finally, if you look at the top 50 pitchers by ERA last year that qualified, #50 (equivalent of a #2-3 pitcher?) is 4.45.  Just sayin.....

Forget about past performance, think about the multi year contracts you would be locked into aging players for. 
 

 

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Just now, steveno89 said:

Forget about past performance, think about the multi year contracts you would be locked into aging players for. 
 

 

I'll forget about past performance when the Sox quit throwing Covey and a bunch of afterthoughts out there and call them starters.  Everyone keeps talking about these #2 cost controlled starters....where are you getting them?  What are you giving up because it's not Zach Collins for Thor.....they don't have to overspend on two but you do need one.  After your top 3 (if ReyLo gets it together you are doing what if's on guys who are or have been injured).  If we are content waiting til 21 to see what happens that's ok, but I'm tired of hearing about all of this aggression lol

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

Hahn became GM in late 2012, he supposedly had the 2013 and 2014 offseasons. Pre-2015 was his 3rd offseason.

Ah, thanks. Maybe I’m just remembering all of us thinking the smardzigaax trade has Kenny written all over it.

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9 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

I'll forget about past performance when the Sox quit throwing Covey and a bunch of afterthoughts out there and call them starters.  Everyone keeps talking about these #2 cost controlled starters....where are you getting them?  What are you giving up because it's not Zach Collins for Thor.....they don't have to overspend on two but you do need one.  After your top 3 (if ReyLo gets it together you are doing what if's on guys who are or have been injured).  If we are content waiting til 21 to see what happens that's ok, but I'm tired of hearing about all of this aggression lol

They trotted our guys like Covey because they were rebuilding. As they switch towards contention they will look to add quality pieces, but at the same time be mindful of future payroll obligations and flexibility. 
 

overpaying for a starter is just not good business unless it’s the final piece you need to contend. Ryu/MBum/Keuchel are not players I would want to touch for 4-5 years, hence explore trade markets and monitor if their seminars come down. 

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11 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

I'll forget about past performance when the Sox quit throwing Covey and a bunch of afterthoughts out there and call them starters.  Everyone keeps talking about these #2 cost controlled starters....where are you getting them?  What are you giving up because it's not Zach Collins for Thor.....they don't have to overspend on two but you do need one.  After your top 3 (if ReyLo gets it together you are doing what if's on guys who are or have been injured).  If we are content waiting til 21 to see what happens that's ok, but I'm tired of hearing about all of this aggression lol

They were rebuilding, that's the point of rebuilding, your team sucks.

They clearly are trying to make the team better by the moves they are making.  You don't give Madison Bumgarner 100 million dollars just for the Lols.  He has like 1900 innings pitched including the playoffs and was getting destroyed by HRs in an airport of a home field.  That kind of move very arguably makes the team worse overall.

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4 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

They were rebuilding, that's the point of rebuilding, your team sucks.

They clearly are trying to make the team better by the moves they are making.  You don't give Madison Bumgarner 100 million dollars just for the Lols.  He has like 1900 innings pitched including the playoffs and was getting destroyed by HRs in an airport of a home field.  That kind of move very arguably makes the team worse overall.

The "optimistic" side here is that Wheeler's a ticking time bomb with his injury history...2 1/2 year recovery track from TJ surgery...and the fact that his arsenal relies so much on 97+ MPH fastballs.

A major injury to him would have been 3X worse than Kopech going down.

In all likelihood, it's a bullet dodged...although you obviously don't ever want to see anyone get hurt, it wouldn't be a shocker...not anymore than Sale experiencing health issues at this point in his career, or Kershaw's stuff declining.

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I don't hate the team at all.  Love em too much at times and I actually enjoy having these discussions, but when the owner is taking in tens of millions, I'm not saying go pay $300 million for Cole, but looking for 2 more retreads to get by this year I don't think is taking a step forward.  I hope I'm wrong and they get something decent done, but I'm not going to be ok with going into this season opening day with Gio, Cease, ReyLo and two guys that look like Ivan Nova and Michael Wacha.  Am I going to quit watching?  Nope, but it just continues to give me that doubt that they will do what it takes

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4 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

They were rebuilding, that's the point of rebuilding, your team sucks.

They clearly are trying to make the team better by the moves they are making.  You don't give Madison Bumgarner 100 million dollars just for the Lols.  He has like 1900 innings pitched including the playoffs and was getting destroyed by HRs in an airport of a home field.  That kind of move very arguably makes the team worse overall.

Moves?  I'll hold final judgment until March, but so far there has been one move (and a good one at that).  Agreed the last 3 years were about getting to here, but if Grandal is the move you are one year closer to FA/arbitration of your youngsters.  That's all I'm saying.  What would be an example of an acceptable type rotation going into opening day or is it ok to piecemeal until the pitchers we have get healthy?  Do you have an expectation is all I'm asking:)?

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7 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

Moves?  I'll hold final judgment until March, but so far there has been one move (and a good one at that).  Agreed the last 3 years were about getting to here, but if Grandal is the move you are one year closer to FA/arbitration of your youngsters.  That's all I'm saying.  What would be an example of an acceptable type rotation going into opening day or is it ok to piecemeal until the pitchers we have get healthy?  Do you have an expectation is all I'm asking:)?

They were going to give Zack Wheeler 125 million dollars, I would say that qualifies even though he turned it down, which never happens.

I've already said I want them to make a trade, hopefully for a #2 or #3 with upside.  The reason for that is exactly what you are ranting about.  The remaining FA pitchers are not worth the money they are asking for in my opinion.  The top 3 pitchers left not named Cole are either more hurt than not, old and on a decline, or translate very poorly to the AL and at GRF.  If the asking prices are true they are way over what I would feel comfortable paying.  

 

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4 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

They were going to give Zack Wheeler 125 million dollars, I would say that qualifies even though he turned it down, which never happens.

I've already said I want them to make a trade, hopefully for a #2 or #3 with upside.  The reason for that is exactly what you are ranting about.  The remaining FA pitchers are not worth the money they are asking for in my opinion.  The top 3 pitchers left not named Cole are either more hurt than not, old and on a decline, or translate very poorly to the AL and at GRF.  If the asking prices are true they are way over what I would feel comfortable paying.  

 

We agree that Wheeler may have been the right idea and that the current group remaining is more than we thought they would be.  So does that mean pack it in until 2021?  I just keep seeing in everyone of these threads that this guy is too much, that guy is too much, so the answer is if we don't get our select 2-3 guys then just wait and hope?  Again, not saying wrong, but everyone just uses words like cost controlled and trades yet no specific ideas, just a bunch of generalities.....  

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28 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Ah, thanks. Maybe I’m just remembering all of us thinking the smardzigaax trade has Kenny written all over it.

I spent much of that season using the line "Rick Hahn's decisions aren't Rick Hahn's Fault®". I trademarked like 7 versions because it fit everywhere.  

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1 minute ago, Wisebri224 said:

We agree that Wheeler may have been the right idea and that the current group remaining is more than we thought they would be.  So does that mean pack it in until 2021?  I just keep seeing in everyone of these threads that this guy is too much, that guy is too much, so the answer is if we don't get our select 2-3 guys then just wait and hope?  Again, not saying wrong, but everyone just uses words like cost controlled and trades yet no specific ideas, just a bunch of generalities.....  

After they sign a RF none of those guys remaining in the minors have any path to the MLB as a starter.  The same could be said about the pitchers in the minors unless Lopez doesn't bounce back.  They have some pieces to trade.  What kind of specifics do you want? Nobody knows what pitchers are actually available from other teams outside of a couple.

I want German Marquez from the Rockies.  I have no idea if he's available or what they would even take in return.  Kind of hard to be specific when we aren't Rick Hahn.

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The astronomical $$$ pitching market was set off by the boneheaded Braves and that ridiculous one year deal for Cole Hamels. 

It easily pushed the Wheeler deal well north of $100 million and that Wheeler deal is pulling a guy like Bumgarner who had no chance of seeing 9 figures, in that conversation now. 

When Bumgarner  gets his 5/$100 million, there will be no reason for Ryu and Keuchel not to demand a guaranteed 4th year on any deal. 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Man, the new guys around here all seem to hate this team with a passion.

Why even post if you’re primarily just going to be pessimistic and full of spite?

This literally applies to at least 70% of the posters here. 

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5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

After they sign a RF none of those guys remaining in the minors have any path to the MLB as a starter.  The same could be said about the pitchers in the minors unless Lopez doesn't bounce back.  They have some pieces to trade.  What kind of specifics do you want? Nobody knows what pitchers are actually available from other teams outside of a couple.

I want German Marquez from the Rockies.  I have no idea if he's available or what they would even take in return.  Kind of hard to be specific when we aren't Rick Hahn.

Marquez is unlikely to be available, Gray might be, but only two seasons of control left. Unknown price tag. 

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2 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

The astronomical $$$ pitching market was set off by the boneheaded Braves and that ridiculous one year deal for Cole Hamels. 

It easily pushed the Wheeler deal well north of $100 million and that Wheeler deal is pulling a guy like Bumgarner who had no chance of seeing 9 figures, in that conversation now. 

When Bumgarner  gets his 5/$100 million, there will be no reason for Ryu and Keuchel not to demand a guaranteed 4th year on any deal. 

 

 

 

This Astronomical Pitching Market is a correction after the last 3 years. Teams have been making more money but salaries have been depressed by the number of teams that were uncompetitive. Now more teams are making moves, and the fact that teams are money-loaded is enabling them to spend big.

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