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Sox acquire Nomar Mazara for Steele Walker


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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Castellanos has a career 797 OPS and is an awful defensive player.

Mazara has a career 754 OPS improving each year and a below average fielder.

 

Ironically, he didn't improve from 2018 to 2019 at all - if you account for the increase in offense around the league. His OPS+, league-adjusted, was 96 both years. And it went down from 2016 to 2017. So he's been treading water, with his head and nose below the water line. 

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Just now, sullythered said:

People are arguing in circles on this.  As with all things, there is nuance to this that keeps it from simply being "good" or "bad."  The Sox made a trade that sent a 23 year old middling prospect for a 25 year old replacement-level player who some people think has potential for a breakout season.  Even if he just stays a replacement-level player, that's like a 9 WAR improvement over RF last season, so in that regard, it was a good move.  If he somehow rises to his potential (which I feel is unlikely) it will have been a great move.

IF, however, this is the biggest post-Yasmani Grandal move that the Sox make this offseason, it will have been a huge disappointment.  Not just because of fan expectation, but what they, themselves, have been proudly boasting for all to hear.  If the "money is spent" and they add 2 starting pitchers, or a SP and a good RP, or some other combination of good players at need positions, then this will have been fine.  If, for some reason, they now stop pursuing the many options that are currently available in FA and trade, then this move looks bad.

The White Sox were -1.3 WAR in RF last year, Mazara with better health would have been 1. So no, it's a 2 WAR improvement if he stays below replacement level.

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Castellanos has a career 797 OPS and is an awful defensive player.

Mazara has a career 754 OPS improving each year and a below average fielder.

 

🤣🤣 Castellanos isn't improving?  He hasn't had an OPS below 826 for 3 seasons.  He was TRASH his first couple years.  He ended this season with a 1000+ OPS in 50 games.  This isn't the conversation to have when your team is on the verge to compete.

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Castellanos who many on here love was a .6 WAR through his 24 year old season.

Calhoun had 25 ABs in the majors through his 24 year old season.

Ozuna 5.8 WAR through his 24 year old season. 4.4  of that was in 1 year at the age of 23. His 24 year old season was .5 WAR, worse than Mazara's

Mazara is 1.8 WAR through his 24 year old season.

It is pretty reasonable to think that Mazara will improve on that number. I like the trade because you didn't give up much at all. Steele Walker is not going to be any better than a 4th outfielder most likely. He is doing OK at 1 year younger than Mazara and he was still a few years away. He is not that big so he wont have big power either. Now the Sox still need to make some moves for a SP and RPs. If they don't then this trade doesn't matter anyway.

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My cousin who lives in Plano and watches nearly every Rangers’ game had this to say.

Rangers are a mess and have been since the blowup with Nolan Ryan and the new ownership that doesn't appear to have any money. Mazara will be an All-Star for the Sox. Another awful trade by Daniels. How much longer will they stay with this guy? His greatest trade was trading a HOFer for Andrus.

Edited by caulfield12
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1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Why are people concerned about saving 11 or 12 million dollars in AAV while sacrificing over 5x the production lol.

The last report that came out was the Tigers and Marlins were interested.  Both of those teams are in a deep rebuild.  And this genius GM finally outbid someone.

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox were -1.3 WAR in RF last year, Mazara with better health would have been 1. So no, it's a 2 WAR improvement if he stays below replacement level.

I was making a joke about how poor they were at the position.  I forgot how people talk here.  I should have said 200 point improvement in OPS, better?

Edited by sullythered
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13 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I’m sure someone could come up with a list of highly touted 25 year old major leaguers who have done nothing in the league thus far that you wouldn’t want to acquire.

Sure, like Alen Hanson, who was highly touted and actually did nothing and whom you would seriously not want to acquire.

Nomar Mazara's "nothing" consists of four straight seasons of 19-20 homeruns, a .317-.323 OBP, and a .419-.469 SLG (that metric has improved each year). He'll be an old 24 year old on OD 2020. At worst, he'll put up a mid-.700s OPS at a position where we got mid-.500s last year. At best, he'll totally break out. Or if we shield him from LHP by playing Leury, he'll put up a mid-.800s OPS. All for the price of Steele Walker.

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

So we sign Joc Pederson for 100 million as a platoon bat next year when Springer gets locked up by the Astros and Mookie gets 350 million from not us?

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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

The real problem isn’t Mazara.

It’s pitching.  If Minnesota makes the right move for Bumgarner, Ryu or Keuchel...it’s going to make it that much more difficult to overtake them before 2022/23.

Luckily, the Dodgers and Angels will likely take 2 of those 3.

Edited by caulfield12
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1 minute ago, The Sir said:

Sure, like Alen Hanson, who was highly touted and actually did nothing and whom you would seriously not want to acquire.

Nomar Mazara's "nothing" consists of four straight seasons of 19-20 homeruns, a .317-.323 OBP, and a .419-.469 SLG (that metric has improved each year). He'll be an old 24 year old on OD 2020. At worst, he'll put up a mid-.700s OPS at a position where we got mid-.500s last year. At best, he'll totally break out. Or if we shield him from LHP by playing Leury, he'll put up a mid-.800s OPS. All for the price of Steele Walker.

oof.

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Top 20 prospects from Mazara's last year as a prospect:

2016 MLB Pipeline Prospect Rankings

Top NEXT  Major Leaguers  Has not played in MLB  Active Players  1st Round Draft Picks  Currently Active on this Team
MLB Rank Tm Rank Player Name Pos Team Name Ht Wt B-T BornDate Age Place HiLvl Stat Years MLB Years Draft Information Status Current Org (Level) Debut
1 1 Corey Seager SS Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 205 L-R 1994-04-27 22 Kannapolis,North Carolina MLB 2012-2019 2015-2019
2012- 1-  18-LAN
Active Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) 2015-09-03
2 1 Byron Buxton OF Minnesota Twins 6-2 190 R-R 1993-12-18 22 Baxley,Georgia MLB 2012-2019 2015-2019
2012- 1-   2-MIN
Active Minnesota Twins (MLB) 2015-06-14
3 1 Lucas Giolito P Washington Nationals 6-6 230 R-R 1994-07-14 21 Santa Monica,California MLB 2012-2019 2016-2019
2012- 1-  16-WAS
Active Chicago White Sox (MLB) 2016-06-28
4 2 Julio Urias P Los Angeles Dodgers 5-11 160 L-L 1996-08-12 19 Culiacan,Mexico MLB 2013-2019 2016-2019
2012-   UDFA-LAN
Active Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) 2016-05-27
5 1 JP Crawford SS Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 180 L-R 1995-01-11 21 Lakewood,California MLB 2013-2019 2017-2019
2013- 1-  16-PHI
Active Seattle Mariners (MLB) 2017-09-05
6 1 Orlando Arcia SS Milwaukee Brewers 6-0 165 R-R 1994-08-04 21 Anaco,Venezuela MLB 2011-2019 2016-2019
2010-   UDFA-MIL
Active Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) 2016-08-02
7 1 Yoan Moncada IF Boston Red Sox 6-2 205 B-R 1995-05-27 21 Abreus,Cuba MLB 2015-2019 2016-2019
2015-   UDFA-BOS
Active Chicago White Sox (MLB) 2016-09-02
8 1 Dansby Swanson SS Atlanta Braves 6-0 170 R-R 1994-02-11 22 Marietta,Georgia MLB 2013-2019 2016-2019
2015- 1-   1-ARI
Active Atlanta Braves (MLB) 2016-08-17
9 1 Joey Gallo 3B Texas Rangers 6-5 205 L-R 1993-11-19 22 Las Vegas,Nevada MLB 2012-2019 2015-2019
2012- 1-  39-TEX
Active Texas Rangers (MLB) 2015-06-02
10 1 Tyler Glasnow P Pittsburgh Pirates 6-7 200 L-R 1993-08-23 22 Newhall,California MLB 2012-2019 2016-2019
2011- 5- 152-PIT
Active Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) 2016-07-07
11 2 Trea Turner SS Washington Nationals 6-2 160 R-R 1993-06-30 23 Lake Worth,Florida MLB 2012-2019 2015-2019
2014- 1-  13-SDN
Active Washington Nationals (MLB) 2015-08-21
12 1 Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies 6-0 180 R-R 1996-08-09 19 Lake Mary,Florida AAA 2015-2019 2019-2019
2015- 1-   3-COL
Active Colorado Rockies (MLB) 2019-05-17
13 1 Alex Reyes P St. Louis Cardinals 6-3 185 R-R 1994-08-29 21 Elizabeth,New Jersey MLB 2013-2019 2016-2019
2012-   UDFA-SLN
Minors St. Louis Cardinals (AAA) 2016-08-09
14 1 Blake Snell P Tampa Bay Rays 6-4 180 L-L 1992-12-04 23 Seattle,Washington MLB 2011-2019 2016-2019
2011- 1-  52-TBA
Active Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) 2016-04-23
15 1 Steven Matz P New York Mets 6-2 192 R-L 1991-05-29 25 Stony Brook,New York MLB 2012-2019 2015-2019
2009- 2-  72-NYN
Active New York Mets (MLB) 2015-06-28
16 4 Lewis Brinson OF Texas Rangers 6-3 170 R-R 1994-05-08 22 Tamarac,Florida MLB 2012-2019 2017-2019
2012- 1-  29-TEX
Active Miami Marlins (MLB) 2017-06-11
17 2 Rafael Devers 3B Boston Red Sox 6-0 195 L-R 1996-10-24 19 Sanchez,Dom Rep MLB 2014-2019 2017-2019
2013-   UDFA-BOS
Active Boston Red Sox (MLB) 2017-07-25
18 2 Nomar Mazara RF-OF Texas Rangers 6-4 195 L-L 1995-04-26 21 Santo Domingo,Dom Rep MLB 2012-2019 2016-2019
2011-   UDFA-TEX
Active Texas Rangers (MLB) 2016-04-10
19 2 Jose Berrios P Minnesota Twins 6-0 190 R-R 1994-05-27 22 Bayamon,Puerto Rico MLB 2012-2019 2016-2019
2012- 1-  32-MIN
Active Minnesota Twins (MLB) 2016-04-27
20 2 Austin Meadows OF Pittsburgh Pirates 6-2 195 L-L 1995-05-03 21 Atlanta,Georgia MLB 2013-2019 2018-2019
2013- 1-   9-PIT
Active Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) 2018-05-18
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Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

So we sign Joc Pederson for 100 million as a platoon bat next year when Springer gets locked up by the Astros and Mookie gets 350 million from not us?

Lol. Everything that could go wrong will go wrong, yes absolutely that will happen.  There is also Michael Brantley.

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Just now, SoxFanForever said:

Castellanos in his age 23 and 24 seasons is basically identical to Mazaro.  I'm not saying he will develop into what Castellanos is now but it isn't a stretch to think he eventually could get to where Nick is.

 

 

Castellanos vs Mazaro.jpg

Castellanos was 10% better so they're not really the exact same.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

Signing Ozuna/Castellanos is about 2020 and 2021 - in 2021, Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all start hitting arbitration, meaning that just keeping those 3 guys around adds $20 million to the payroll each year. By 2022, with Abreu and Grandal also on the roster, the White Sox will have $110 million committed to their payroll just for their current players unless they are trading guys away to save money.

If they do not make the playoffs in either 2020 or 2021 such that they don't see attendance growth, they will be hitting their payroll limits just holding onto people. 

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Mazara's main issue is is his career 49% ground ball rate, but he still is consistently 20 HR per year. In 2019, he hit the ball at a 35.5% medium contact and 45.3% hard contact rate. That was with a lingering thumb issue all year. He hits the ball hard, but the problem is half the time it is in the ground. If the Sox can help him fix that ground ball rate, even just 10%, all other offensive stats will jump significantly, not to mention maybe 30+ HR's.

I've also added a graphic of Mazara's career stats against the AL Central and the Cubs.

 

IMG_2549.jpg

Edited by palehose05
Correction
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Well if any other teams were convinced Mazara is on the verge of a breakout (you know teams with much better scouting than Chicago) how come nobody was willing to pony up more than their equivalent of Steele Walker?

Crickets.  Because he sucks.  Because nobody else wanted to take this guy off Texas' hands for any assets other than cash and A ball relievers.

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6 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

🤣🤣 Castellanos isn't improving?  He hasn't had an OPS below 826 for 3 seasons.  He was TRASH his first couple years.  He ended this season with a 1000+ OPS in 50 games.  This isn't the conversation to have when your team is on the verge to compete.

It’s just a hot take by someone who defends the FO’s cheapness.

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14 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Ozuna is a two-time all-star with a 6 WAR season *two years ago.*  If we're willing to project Mazara to produce beyond anything he's ever achieved before, seems only fair to be willing to project alternative players to perform at a level they have actually achieved.

Ozuna also has a bad shoulder. My issue is more with Castellanos anyway. They fans that have a hard on for Castellanos are crying, but it's not like he's really good. 

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1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

So we sign Joc Pederson for 100 million as a platoon bat next year when Springer gets locked up by the Astros and Mookie gets 350 million from not us?

That’s not going to happen, either.  A platoon outfielder shouldn’t be getting any more than Castellanos or Ozuna.

That said, if those two guys are off the market, an aging Brantley and Pederson will be the only non-trade options.  And Brantleys not especially well-suited for RF, either.

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3 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Sure, like Alen Hanson, who was highly touted and actually did nothing and whom you would seriously not want to acquire.

Nomar Mazara's "nothing" consists of four straight seasons of 19-20 homeruns, a .317-.323 OBP, and a .419-.469 SLG (that metric has improved each year). He'll be an old 24 year old on OD 2020. At worst, he'll put up a mid-.700s OPS at a position where we got mid-.500s last year. At best, he'll totally break out. Or if we shield him from LHP by playing Leury, he'll put up a mid-.800s OPS. All for the price of Steele Walker.

The White Sox got a .636 OPS out of RF last year. 

Somehow we were also #2 in the league in baserunning performance out of RF. I'll leave it to others to figure that out.

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Of the top 20 who were Mazara's age or younger, here is how that breaks down:

Urias - still hasn't taken off yet, but still talented.

Gio - First good year last year

Yoan - First good year last year

Arcia and Crawford - Still waiting to see more from both

Brendan Rogers - Terrible big league numbers but still top prospect

Alex Reyes - Still looking for his first good year

Devers - First good year was last year (in fact, Devers was a 1 WAR player the same time as Mazara pretty much)

Austin Meadows - first good year last year

Mazara isn't exactly out of hope. Most of these guys had their first productive year last year; Mazara could easily be that guy this year.

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