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Sox and Sawks to see if the Price is Right

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14 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

I tried to emebededed the Tweet for Iike 15 minutes.  Sorry, I’m usually smarter than this.

I got you.

 

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14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And there’s the main reason it’s too much of a risk...in a world of increasing velocities, he’s trending in the exact opposite direction.

How much is part of that related to his injury issues this past year? Not to say he bounces back cause he is old with a lot of innings, but I wouldn’t bet against it. That said I am only acquiring him if I get something else of Long term value with him. 

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3 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I got you.

 

Thanks, dawg.  So you can see not only is his overall pitch quality declining, his velocity percentile has dropped dramatically.  Went from one of the hardest throwers in the league to the middle of the pack.  

I was all for this trade when I thought we could get Benintendi as well.  Insert Price after Giolito and then Keuchel at the back end.  Then think about a 1-2 of Benintendi and Madrigal with Mazara getting DH at bats at the bottom of the order and it looks really really nice on paper.  But I’m in denial about Price’s health severly limiting his innings and talent.  I need to keep looking at this.

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It doesn’t matter....because Hahn’s not going to take the risk of assuming the contract without Benintendi.

Taking just a subsidy of $30-45 million and Price going completely south is just too risky.  It would be one thing if we knew what we were going to get out of Kopech, Cease, Rodon and Dunning...but we just don’t know yet.

The Red Sox will only cut it down to 3/$60.  We’re better off signing Ryu or Keuchel at those numbers.

The other reason is the fact that this might be his best remaining season...and we’re still on the short end of playoff contention unless everything goes right with the Sox and wrong with the Twins and Indians simultaneously.

You can’t take on what would still be one of the five biggest contracts in team history because you feel backed into a corner after Wheeler falling through.  You make the Red Sox start the season with Price, Eovaldi and Sale or you get them to send another $15-30 million (bringing the cost to the White Sox into the $30-45 million range) and you use that money for EE and Wade Miley and send Collins to Boston.

Only if they’re going to add those two other players should you think about this move.  Just Price isn’t enough to move the needle.

If the Red Sox won’t give you that kind of discount, move on and force someone else to take that risk.  We didn’t completely rebuild to turn around and have everything teetering on a landline contract like that.

Edited by caulfield12
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It’s not a perfect science as it doesn’t account for things like deception.  It generally is useful information, but it doesn’t favor Sale who has the highest SO/BB ratio in MLB history, and is tied for highest SO/9 in MLB history. 

I mostly posted it to show the massive drop in velocity per Caulfield’s request, but the steady decline in overall QOPA year after year has to be very concerning.

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Hahn can get Benintendi plus either Sale, Price or Eovaldi, depending (obviously) on the compensation. 

I think the possibilities are intriguing.  BoxSox need a catcher, at least a back-up catcher and we have one to spare.  BoSox need to cut salary so that they can re-sign Mookie and the Sox have already priced in money to get pitching help this off season. 

I think Chaim Bloom might be afraid to pull the trigger on any major deal along the lines of what we have discussed.

 

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2 hours ago, SoxAce said:

I got you.

 

Not sure I'm putting any stock into this at all.  

Chris Sale has been around a 4.4 his whole career.  

Max Scherzer hasn't had one above 4 in 3 years. 

Interesting statistic, but I don't believe it means much.  

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1 hour ago, PantsRowland said:

A career worst "pitch quality" yet a career high strike out rate. Something doesn't add up there.

Sometimes it helps to, you know, know how to pitch.  

The big problem I have with a lot of these types of statistics, is that they over value things like spin rates, and velocity.  They're turning pitchers back into throwers.  

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I feel like, at least on some level, these Boston pitchers velocity as well as their production last year shouldn't be scrutinized too heavily.  Eovaldi, Price, Sale, all these guys were so stretched out in the playoffs and thru the world series run.

 

I'm not saying to completely discount it but it's still a consideration.  Have a feeling Price and Sale will be better next year after they have time to recharge.

Edited by bschmaranz

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1 hour ago, tray said:

How was Eovaldi's velocity after he came back from injury?  That guy used to throw gas.

97.7 average velocity.  29.   Three years and $51 million remaining on contract.  The closest thing to Wheeler that’s a realistic get.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathan-eovaldi/9132/stats?position=P#pitchtype

Edited by caulfield12

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There is zero reason to believe Eovaldi can be a starter for an entire season.  And he’d be worth the gamble on a small contract, just not that monstrosity. 

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Fuq David Price, save the prospect capital for DeGrom or Syndergard at the trade deadline or next offseason. Sign Kuechel, Souza, Cesar Hernandez, and Betances. Go into the season as is wait for Mookie next year and shut us all up... 

Thats exactly how I want it to play out.. 

How it actually play out:

Sign Homer Bailey, Yolmer, and trade for Nathan Evoldi.... 

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7 hours ago, teorey23 said:

Fuq David Price, save the prospect capital for DeGrom or Syndergard at the trade deadline or next offseason. Sign Kuechel, Souza, Cesar Hernandez, and Betances. Go into the season as is wait for Mookie next year and shut us all up... 

Thats exactly how I want it to play out.. 

How it actually play out:

Sign Homer Bailey, Yolmer, and trade for Nathan Evoldi.... 

I don't think they will trade Evoldi. With Porcell leaving, he is their only RH starter.  Price makes more sense but obviously his deal will require a lot of work to balance off. I also think Bradley will be moved. 

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8 hours ago, bschmaranz said:

I feel like, at least on some level, these Boston pitchers velocity as well as their production last year shouldn't be scrutinized too heavily.  Eovaldi, Price, Sale, all these guys were so stretched out in the playoffs and thru the world series run.

 

I'm not saying to completely discount it but it's still a consideration.  Have a feeling Price and Sale will be better next year after they have time to recharge.

I get what you are saying but remember how 05 pretty much wrecked that rotation.  Outside of Buehrle it seemed like everyone took a turn for the worst and was out of the league within 3 seasons(I know they weren't but they all went downhill).  Maybe @ptatc can shed some light on Sale's injury but I was under the impression that it's a management thing until it's time to cut it up.

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4 hours ago, HakunaMachado said:

Kluber cost has to bode well for what we want from Boston, right?

In theory yes.  That doesn't mean they will trade him for something they don't want.  

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9 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

In theory yes.  That doesn't mean they will trade him for something they don't want.  

Boston has to find a RH starter to replace Porcello. I would assume they will try and get one dealing Price or Bradley.  Doesn't seem to be any other rumors floating although new GM seems to be playing things close to the vest which is to be expected. 

Edited by SCCWS

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10 minutes ago, HakunaMachado said:

As much as I want the rumored price/Ben package, isn’t a more likely scenario price/JBJ plus cash?

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-trade-rumors-blue-jays-164528125.html
 

Sure, but we just traded for Mazara...so the need for a $10 million-ish backup left handed outfielder who will be a free agent in 2021 isn’t that great.   Benintendi’s multiple years of control is the much better match.

Boston is crazy to think other teams would give up prospects for that (Price/JBJr) without at least $40 million going the other direction.

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