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The cost of starting pitching

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3 minutes ago, 2Deep said:

I run a corporation, this sounds great in theory.  Ultimately you can't control if someone does not want to be somewhere.

How many times have you heard from sports people that a said player will always take the most money..........in this case it didn't work for us.  We offered the most money and I can't be mad at the FO for that.  There are plenty other reasons to be mad.  

Did we try offering 10% more money? No we did not.

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38 minutes ago, Hatchetman said:

People are assuming Kopech will be good to go opening day. I think that would be a huge mistake.

People shouldn't assume that, but people also shouldn't assume that he won't be part of the opening day rotation (and yes I know Hahn previously said something like that).

Missing Wheeler obviously changed things.  My personal hope is that the Sox sign Keuchel or Ryu in the coming weeks, then wait until the end of the offseason to see what starters are still out there (Wood? Nova?) and sign someone to a minor league deal with invite to spring training, with the thought being there will be a competition between that guy and Kopech for the 5th starter spot.  If Kopech is healthy and mowing people down, he should be in the opening day rotation (service time be damned).  If he is rusty or still feeling some effects from TJS, then have the other guy be the #5 to start the season.

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11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're using Mr. Offday as a starter you better not have anyone else in your rotation on an innings limit (Cease). 

Cease threw 124 innings in 2018 and 141 last year.  He's 24 years old and as strong as he will ever be.  There is no reason for him to be on an innings limit.  

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Did we try offering 10% more money? No we did not.

You really think $4.8M more would have made the difference?  After the difference in tax rate, the take home pay is still only negligibly more than what he got from Philly.  

I am sure there is a price where Wheeler would have said "fuck it - I can't turn that down", but it definitely wasn't $130M when he turned down $125M.  And, at some point. you're just making a super risky investment even more risky when $125M is already $7M more than the next highest bidder.  

I too wanted Wheeler - but I don't fault the Sox for not giving the guy a blank check.  

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Just now, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Cease threw 124 innings in 2018 and 141 last year.  He's 24 years old and as strong as he will ever be.  There is no reason for him to be on an innings limit.  

If you're thinking this team is a playoff team then yeah you've got an innings limit because you probably don't want him throwing 210. If we're punting  on the playoffs and think we can shut him down at 180 innings in September like Lopez has hit the last few years, then Mr. Offday's ok. 

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1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

People shouldn't assume that, but people also shouldn't assume that he won't be part of the opening day rotation (and yes I know Hahn previously said something like that).

Missing Wheeler obviously changed things.  My personal hope is that the Sox sign Keuchel or Ryu in the coming weeks, then wait until the end of the offseason to see what starters are still out there (Wood? Nova?) and sign someone to a minor league deal with invite to spring training, with the thought being there will be a competition between that guy and Kopech for the 5th starter spot.  If Kopech is healthy and mowing people down, he should be in the opening day rotation (service time be damned).  If he is rusty or still feeling some effects from TJS, then have the other guy be the #5 to start the season.

Kopech will not be in the OD rotation.  Happy to wager any amount of money you'd like.  

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

If you're thinking this team is a playoff team then yeah you've got an innings limit because you probably don't want him throwing 210. If we're punting  on the playoffs and think we can shut him down at 180 innings in September like Lopez has hit the last few years, then Mr. Offday's ok. 

Playoffs?!?  Playoffs?!?

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

You really think $4.8M more would have made the difference?  After the difference in tax rate, the take home pay is still only negligibly more than what he got from Philly.  

I am sure there is a price where Wheeler would have said "fuck it - I can't turn that down", but it definitely wasn't $130M when he turned down $125M.  And, at some point. you're just making a super risky investment even more risky when $125M is already $7M more than the next highest bidder.  

I too wanted Wheeler - but I don't fault the Sox for not giving the guy a blank check.  

So your argument is that the difference in takehome pay wouldn't make a difference because of taxes, but location mattered more when our offer came out ahead by only a narrow margin.

So in other words, when taxes are taken into account, our offer and the Phillies offer were 2% apart or so, and that difference is negligible.

So do 10% more after taxes and see if he turns that down. It's clear we had no other backup plan, so there is no way that $12 million should be all that important. 

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I'm going to assuming that we are out on Ryu and Keuchel, so I would be looking to add Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. 

I believe that Wood should be one of the Sox main focus. He is only 28, and if you take out his 2019 injury riddled year, he has had pretty good numbers. Not only does he have a good history and that he is a left, but he can be thrown into the bullpen once our rotation does eventually get healthy and fills out. While with the Dodgers, he has a lot of experience as a long innings reliever. I think this would be huge for us. 

As for Walker, I think we should take a flyer on him. Yeah, he hasn't thrown since 2017 where he only threw 157 innings, but he has great upside. Not to mention, Kopech will be on an innings limit. So why not pair them up essentially and have them split the 200 IP over the season?  

Yeah, Walker is an upside play similar to Mazara, but who are we kidding? We all know Jerry & Co. isn't paying up for premium talent. So why not cross our fingers and hope we strike gold somewhere?

Edit:

I also think we pass on RP's this year. With RP's being so volatile, why invest money into them when we know we won't be truly competing this year. If we spend money on the volatile RP's this year, Jerry will hold onto more of his dollars next year for when we truly need it.

Edited by palehose05

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

So do 10% more after taxes and see if he turns that down. It's clear we had no other backup plan, so there is no way that $12 million should be all that important. 

$12MM over 5 years is like MLB pocket lint.

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Just now, Hatchetman said:

$12MM over 5 years is like MLB pocket lint.

So why didn't the organization try?

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36 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Of the three Tier C options, the only one I want is Keuchle because I wouldn't give up the draft pick.  Sorry, not for that tier or that contract length.  I want a guy who will be good for 4-5 years to sacrifice the pick, not a guy I am holding my breathe for his health or nose on the tail end of the deal.

If I can't get a C, Miley at two years ok.

After one of the above, my one year guy would be Gio as I said before to start at the beginning of year and then maybe piggy back with Kopech.

My reclamation project, so one year with a team option, would be Taijuan Walker who did make it back to the mound at the end of the year.  Until his medicals are in order, don't give Wood much of anything guaranteed, his back was toast last year.

This would be my plan too.

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Just give me Walker, Wood (swing man) and two really good relievers.  Harris/Betances.  We clearly missed on the deep SP free agent crop this year.. So lets just have a good bullpen.  Sign a high upside guy (walker) and hope the risky SP staff pans out (Cease, Kopech, Lopez)

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

So why didn't the organization try?

Apparently Uncle Jerry only gave Rick $130MM to take to the school book fair and the good books cost more than that.

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5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So your argument is that the difference in takehome pay wouldn't make a difference because of taxes, but location mattered more when our offer came out ahead by only a narrow margin.

So in other words, when taxes are taken into account, our offer and the Phillies offer were 2% apart or so, and that difference is negligible.

So do 10% more after taxes and see if he turns that down. It's clear we had no other backup plan, so there is no way that $12 million should be all that important. 

Well you didn’t say 10% more after taxes. That’s a different story. Im not gonna do the math, but that offer is likely over $135M. I don’t blame the Sox for not going there. 

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FWIW paychecks are taxed based on where the work is performed. Away games are taxed in the state where the game takes place.

 

 

 

Edited by SmashROT

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Well you didn’t say 10% more after taxes. That’s a different story. Im not gonna do the math, but that offer is likely over $135M. I don’t blame the Sox for not going there. 

Like it or not, that's the going rate. We gave an offer that, after taxes, was within 1% of another team's offer; we did not substantially beat their offer.

Given that we seemingly have no other solution other than punting on the whole season, I'd say that the extra $11 mil over 5 years seems to be a very minor cost. 

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Like it or not, that's the going rate. We gave an offer that, after taxes, was within 1% of another team's offer; we did not substantially beat their offer.

Given that we seemingly have no other solution other than punting on the whole season, I'd say that the extra $11 mil over 5 years seems to be a very minor cost. 

Yah, I know everyone is freaking out right now, but I think the bolded is a bit much to declare on December 13th.  But yes, having Wheeler would make things a lot better.  

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16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Kopech will not be in the OD rotation.  Happy to wager any amount of money you'd like.  

Why do you think he wint be in the rotation opening day?

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I know everyone is freaking out right now, but I think the bolded is a bit much to declare on December 13th.  But yes, having Wheeler would make things a lot better.  

This team needed a top of the rotation arm and they will not be getting one, so at the very least we're teetering on that.

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Just now, ptatc said:

Why do you think he wint be in the rotation opening day?

I don't really care to type this out again.  Short story - he'll be on an innings limit, and I'd rather have him pitching in Aug/Sep than April/May.  Getting the year of control back is gravy.  Furthermore, Hahn has alluded to Kopech starting in AAA many times. 

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Why do you think he wint be in the rotation opening day?

They will have him on an innings limit and they will want to get an extra year of control by keeping him in the minors for a month. They have all but said they will be doing this. 

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2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Why do you think he wint be in the rotation opening day?

Rick Hahn has basically come out saying he won't be.

And I get that people might say that there could be a grievance but I feel like they actually have a legit argument against manipulation. Signing 2 MLB SP would definitely help their case.

Edited by soxfan2014

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

This team needed a top of the rotation arm and they will not be getting one, so at the very least we're teetering on that.

Depending on definition of TOR arm, I don't think this team needed to sign Cole or Strasburg to win 85 games.  And 85 wins could actually win this dogshit division in 2020.  

I doubt the Sox sign Ryu, but he certainly is a TOR arm, and he's still available.  

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