Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
bruni

The cost of starting pitching

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, palehose05 said:

I'm going to assuming that we are out on Ryu and Keuchel, so I would be looking to add Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. 

I believe that Wood should be one of the Sox main focus. He is only 28, and if you take out his 2019 injury riddled year, he has had pretty good numbers. Not only does he have a good history and that he is a left, but he can be thrown into the bullpen once our rotation does eventually get healthy and fills out. While with the Dodgers, he has a lot of experience as a long innings reliever. I think this would be huge for us. 

As for Walker, I think we should take a flyer on him. Yeah, he hasn't thrown since 2017 where he only threw 157 innings, but he has great upside. Not to mention, Kopech will be on an innings limit. So why not pair them up essentially and have them split the 200 IP over the season?  

Yeah, Walker is an upside play similar to Mazara, but who are we kidding? We all know Jerry & Co. isn't paying up for premium talent. So why not cross our fingers and hope we strike gold somewhere?

Edit:

I also think we pass on RP's this year. With RP's being so volatile, why invest money into them when we know we won't be truly competing this year. If we spend money on the volatile RP's this year, Jerry will hold onto more of his dollars next year for when we truly need it.

Jerry's been holding on to his dollars for several years......why do we need to save more again?  I just don't continue to get the total bargain basement mentiality of this front office once their initial plan didn't work out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

You really think $4.8M more would have made the difference?  After the difference in tax rate, the take home pay is still only negligibly more than what he got from Philly.  

I am sure there is a price where Wheeler would have said "fuck it - I can't turn that down", but it definitely wasn't $130M when he turned down $125M.  And, at some point. you're just making a super risky investment even more risky when $125M is already $7M more than the next highest bidder.  

I too wanted Wheeler - but I don't fault the Sox for not giving the guy a blank check.  

I think the Sox would have signed Wheeler if offered 5/130

No player is going to leave $12 million on the table, Wheeler reportedly left $7, but $12? No chance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Wisebri224 said:

Jerry's been holding on to his dollars for several years......why do we need to save more again?  I just don't continue to get the total bargain basement mentiality of this front office once their initial plan didn't work out.

The ownership structure is some sort of tax sheltered investment scheme. the passive owners get cut a dividend check at the end of the year and everyone is happy. there is no incentive to "grow the business."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To me you sign a reliable guy like Keuchel who is durable and can eat a lot of innings. Then go a little more on the upside/risk side with your second guy with Wood. 
 

Then you have potentially 6-7 available starters at various points of the season which will help with injuries, innings limits, etc. 

1. Gio 

2. Keuchel

3. Cease

4. Wood

5. Lopez 

6. Kopech

7. Rodon at some point?  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

They will have him on an innings limit and they will want to get an extra year of control by keeping him in the minors for a month. They have all but said they will be doing this. 

He will be on an innings limit. It's a shame to waste those innings in the minors. He will be fully healthy and ready to go. I guess they will use it as an excuse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we realistically project Keuchel to be anything more than slightly above replacement level #5 SP making close to $20M AAV in the backhalf of a 4 year deal? 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ptatc said:

He will be on an innings limit. It's a shame to waste those innings in the minors. He will be fully healthy and ready to go. I guess they will use it as an excuse.

He'll pitch like once per week in AAA, probably short starts slowly building up to 5 IP in late May, and then he'll be recalled.  I am not a medical professional like you, so I am sure you will take some exception to that plan (I believe we've had this discussion previously), but I think that is what the Sox will do.

So you're really only "wasting" like 25-30 innings in AAA.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, soxfan3530 said:

To me you sign a reliable guy like Keuchel who is durable and can eat a lot of innings. Then go a little more on the upside/risk side with your second guy with Wood. 
 

Then you have potentially 6-7 available starters at various points of the season which will help with injuries, innings limits, etc. 

1. Gio 

2. Keuchel

3. Cease

4. Wood

5. Lopez 

6. Kopech

7. Rodon at some point?  

This is exactly what I would do given where we stand today.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Can we realistically project Keuchel to be anything more than slightly above replacement level #5 SP making close to $20M AAV in the backhalf of a 4 year deal? 

Can we realistically project where any pitcher will be in 4 years.  I'll use Buerhle as an example because Keuchel looks to be the same type of pitcher.  Buerhle was about the same from his age 32-36 years as he was in his prime including an all star appearance the year before he retired.  Of the pitchers left that are going to cost, Keuchel probably has the best chance at aging well because he's a pitcher, not a thrower.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

Jerry's been holding on to his dollars for several years......why do we need to save more again?  I just don't continue to get the total bargain basement mentiality of this front office once their initial plan didn't work out.

I'm not saying we need to save more. I agree that we need to spend, but the reality is, Jerry won't do it. So why not spend money on guys with high upside who can contribute and we can strike potential gold with to make up for the lack of spending on established players?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, palehose05 said:

I'm not saying we need to save more. I agree that we need to spend, but the reality is, Jerry won't do it. So why not spend money on guys with high upside who can contribute and we can strike potential gold with to make up for the lack of spending on established players?

If we want to continue playing the lottery like the poor do, we'll end up the same way, broke and looking up at the people that actually know what to do with money.  Play a couple lottery tickets?  Sure.  Spend all of your money on lottery tickets?  Welcome to White Sox baseball for the last decade

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Can we realistically project Keuchel to be anything more than slightly above replacement level #5 SP making close to $20M AAV in the backhalf of a 4 year deal? 

No.

Keuchel is an innings eating #4/5 starter who is not likely to get any better age 32 onward. He's still plenty serviceable parked in the back of a rotation, but should the Sox pay any more than 3/$45 for him? I would not. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

No.

Keuchel is an innings eating #4/5 starter who is not likely to get any better age 32 onward. He's still plenty serviceable parked in the back of a rotation, but should the Sox pay any more than 3/$45 for him? I would not. 

 

I just don't think there is any realistic chance he's around 3/$45M with where this pitching market is.  But ya, I do that deal.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

No.

Keuchel is an innings eating #4/5 starter who is not likely to get any better age 32 onward. He's still plenty serviceable parked in the back of a rotation, but should the Sox pay any more than 3/$45 for him? I would not. 

 

I agree but I think someone will give him more. Maybe do something the Braves did and go with a 3-year deal, opt-out after 1 year? He at least plugs a spot for a year, we don't give up a draft pick, and we're not potentially tied down long-term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I just don't think there is any realistic chance he's around 3/$45M with where this pitching market is.  But ya, I do that deal.  

Teams are looking at the same player we are. Keuchel may want four years, but I do not see him getting it. I see him settling at a $15-18 AAV, and maybe a desperate team gives a fourth year, but I highly doubt it. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Wisebri224 said:

If we want to continue playing the lottery like the poor do, we'll end up the same way, broke and looking up at the people that actually know what to do with money.  Play a couple lottery tickets?  Sure.  Spend all of your money on lottery tickets?  Welcome to White Sox baseball for the last decade

You're missing my point and a welcome is unneeded. I do not want to play "the lottery" or spend all of our money on "lottery tickets." At this point, the lack of spending is evident. Would you rather sign players with no upside if we are't going to spend at all? If we aren't going to spend on the big premium players, let alone at all, then there is no reason we shouldn't sign the upside players.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

No.

Keuchel is an innings eating #4/5 starter who is not likely to get any better age 32 onward. He's still plenty serviceable parked in the back of a rotation, but should the Sox pay any more than 3/$45 for him? I would not. 

 

Check out WAR from the last 3 years.  I looked at the top 60 SP using WAR (top 2 starters for MLB teams if split evenly) and guess 3 names on that list.....Keuchel, Price, Bumgarner.  I get they have hit their peak, but to keep talking like these guys are replacement bums is I don't know........silly?????

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, palehose05 said:

You're missing my point and a welcome is unneeded. I do not want to play "the lottery" or spend all of our money on "lottery tickets." At this point, the lack of spending is evident. Would you rather sign players with no upside if we are't going to spend at all? If we aren't going to spend on the big premium players, let alone at all, then there is no reason we shouldn't sign the upside players.  

Not trying to be  smart at you at all but that is the last decade of this team, right?  Totally agree that spending on players with upside is a good SECONDARY move.  I'm not going to sit and say well, they aren't going to spend so here's the plan.  I just don't think that's a way a professional team would think.  Sorry in advance for the all caps:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I think the Sox would have signed Wheeler if offered 5/130

No player is going to leave $12 million on the table, Wheeler reportedly left $7, but $12? No chance

Good to know.  Thanks Zack!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

Yeah my top offer for Keuchel would be 3/45.  Bumgarner 3/50 or 4/65.  Ryu 3/60. Those are about my happy limits for those 4.

Are you in some way related to Dylan Covey?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't really care to type this out again.  Short story - he'll be on an innings limit, and I'd rather have him pitching in Aug/Sep than April/May.  Getting the year of control back is gravy.  Furthermore, Hahn has alluded to Kopech starting in AAA many times. 

We'll see.  Hahn has said a lot of stuff that's turned out to not be true.  He'll be on an innings limit, but how about he pitches in April - July, and is replaced by Rodon when he's ready?  Isn't that better than having Covey or some other bargain bin pitcher starting games for the Sox in April and May?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Yeah my top offer for Keuchel would be 3/45.  Bumgarner 3/50 or 4/65.  Ryu 3/60. Those are about my happy limits for those 4.

We're getting none or them at those prices. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

We'll see.  Hahn has said a lot of stuff that's turned out to not be true.  He'll be on an innings limit, but how about he pitches in April - July, and is replaced by Rodon when he's ready?  Isn't that better than having Covey or some other bargain bin pitcher starting games for the Sox in April and May?

If Rodon comes back in July - are we sure that there will be no other injuries in the starting rotation before then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×