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bruni

The cost of starting pitching

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7 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

We're getting none or them at those prices. 

Which is my exact point.. I don't want any of them.  Especially for something that's going to blow up in our faces.  Keuchel is washed up.  Bumgarner, i predict is going to fall off a cliff soon and Ryu is glass.  

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37 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

Check out WAR from the last 3 years.  I looked at the top 60 SP using WAR (top 2 starters for MLB teams if split evenly) and guess 3 names on that list.....Keuchel, Price, Bumgarner.  I get they have hit their peak, but to keep talking like these guys are replacement bums is I don't know........silly?????

Do not get sucked into the trap of paying for past performance, when evaluating whether to sign potential free agents you must consider what they project to do for you moving forward. 

Paying and expecting Keuchel to be more than a #4 is a mistake, take a look

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb

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1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

He'll pitch like once per week in AAA, probably short starts slowly building up to 5 IP in late May, and then he'll be recalled.  I am not a medical professional like you, so I am sure you will take some exception to that plan (I believe we've had this discussion previously), but I think that is what the Sox will do.

So you're really only "wasting" like 25-30 innings in AAA.  

I don't think that will be the program. Once a week is not a good program. More likely it will be on a regular rotation but piggy backed with someone else to only pitch a few innings.

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18 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Do not get sucked into the trap of paying for past performance, when evaluating whether to sign potential free agents you must consider what they project to do for you moving forward. 

Paying and expecting Keuchel to be more than a #4 is a mistake, take a look

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb

So I base everything off of metrics of prior years stats?  There have been players that have stayed steady eddie through a good chunk of their 30's (Buerhle) (check out Buerhle's 2015 numbers on this same site when he won 15 games), especially those who are not power pitchers.  COuld Keuchel bust?  Sure, but last year wasn't a precipitous drop off stat wise if you prorated it for a whole year.  That's what the pros get paid to figure out I guess.  I just know if teams only signed players under 30, there would be quite a few missed opportunities.  If Keuchel is our #4, we are in good shape:)  

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Have a feeling the FO is waiting for prices to drop and for the market to filter out to address SP

CWS has been reported to have been interested in MadBum and  Keuchel in FA and Price and Snell via trade

Personally, I'm hoping CWS saves their money and passes on an already over the hill MadBum clearly on the decline and a pedestrian Keuchel in the same boat

I'm also hoping CWS holds on to their assets in the farm so that eliminates Snell and would only leave interest in Price if he's available for org. fillers

We're not getting an ace or anything close to it in FA this year boys

What I do hope is for Wade Miley (2/14 tops?)...inning eating veteran southpaw who is proven, we know what we're getting and isn't a ton of money

Alex Wood on an incentive based deal for pennies wouldn't discourage me either

Felix, Teheran, or Walker for incentive based cheap deals wouldn't be bad either, low risk...improbable but high reward

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1 minute ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Have a feeling the FO is waiting for prices to drop and for the market to filter out to address SP

CWS has been reported to have been interested in MadBum and  Keuchel in FA and Price and Snell via trade

Personally, I'm hoping CWS saves their money and passes on an already over the hill MadBum clearly on the decline and a pedestrian Keuchel in the same boat

I'm also hoping CWS holds on to their assets in the farm so that eliminates Snell and would only leave interest in Price if he's available for org. fillers

We're not getting an ace or anything close to it in FA this year boys

What I do hope is for Wade Miley (2/14 tops?)...inning eating veteran southpaw who is proven, we know what we're getting and isn't a ton of money

Alex Wood on an incentive based deal for pennies wouldn't discourage me either

Felix, Teheran, or Walker for incentive based cheap deals wouldn't be bad either, low risk...improbable but high reward

Few days too late to make this statement.

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2 hours ago, daggins said:

Even bringing back Nova would preferable to having Covey in the rotation. 

Been thinking this all fall unfortunately...eats innings for cheap

 

2 hours ago, Hatchetman said:

People are assuming Kopech will be good to go opening day. I think that would be a huge mistake.

Have a feeling even is Kopech is healthy on OD, he'll be down in CHA for 4-6 weeks

Hopefully Kopech does return to form and pan out as the ace he's been advertised as

With Rodon out until mid season and Cease likely on an innings limit and Lopez on his final straw as a starter, this rotation is very boom or bust and could use a sure thing or two

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3 hours ago, Hatchetman said:

People are assuming Kopech will be good to go opening day. I think that would be a huge mistake.

He was good to go last September. The only reason he will not be int he rotation is service time.

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1 hour ago, Wisebri224 said:

So I base everything off of metrics of prior years stats?  There have been players that have stayed steady eddie through a good chunk of their 30's (Buerhle) (check out Buerhle's 2015 numbers on this same site when he won 15 games), especially those who are not power pitchers.  COuld Keuchel bust?  Sure, but last year wasn't a precipitous drop off stat wise if you prorated it for a whole year.  That's what the pros get paid to figure out I guess.  I just know if teams only signed players under 30, there would be quite a few missed opportunities.  If Keuchel is our #4, we are in good shape:)  

Sure, Keuchel could help the Sox, I'm not disagreeing with that. But at what cost?

No chance I am going four years with him, and I do not even love going three unless the price is reasonable

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6 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Sure, Keuchel could help the Sox, I'm not disagreeing with that. But at what cost?

No chance I am going four years with him, and I do not even love going three unless the price is reasonable

Exactly...that's the game in FA...Have to get proper value or steals

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Just now, ChiSoxJon said:

Exactly...that's the game in FA...Have to get proper value or steals

No, the game in FA is you pay through the nose because you have a desperate need.

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Just now, Hatchetman said:

No, the game in FA is you pay through the nose because you have a desperate need.

and any team that plans to compete should EXPECT 35-50% payroll to be through FA overpays. Just the cost of doing business these days. 

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This game is not shopping at WalMart constantly.......you sometimes have to shop at the nice stores or you don't win the prize.   We will NEVER get above a #4 starter here if there's not going to be an overpay.  Pitching is valuable.  Teams want the valuable commodity.  All of this dreaming of 2 year deals at $10-$12 million per for 200 inning pitchers is a dreamland.  Like I said earlier, if the Sox want to sign 4-5 lottery tickets and pray they scratch a winning card they can, but more often than not you will go 0/5 and end up with nothing.  I don't like overpaying either, but again, they have cash, lots of it.....it doesn't hurt to overpay on one SP and not to the tune of $300 million but $80-$100.  I'm done thinking WalMart shopping with this team.  Let's at least get to Target :)

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21 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

This game is not shopping at WalMart constantly.......you sometimes have to shop at the nice stores or you don't win the prize.   We will NEVER get above a #4 starter here if there's not going to be an overpay.  Pitching is valuable.  Teams want the valuable commodity.  All of this dreaming of 2 year deals at $10-$12 million per for 200 inning pitchers is a dreamland.  Like I said earlier, if the Sox want to sign 4-5 lottery tickets and pray they scratch a winning card they can, but more often than not you will go 0/5 and end up with nothing.  I don't like overpaying either, but again, they have cash, lots of it.....it doesn't hurt to overpay on one SP and not to the tune of $300 million but $80-$100.  I'm done thinking WalMart shopping with this team.  Let's at least get to Target :)

Teams regularly cobble together production out of less expensive players, it's called getting value. 

Homer Bailey was paid $555K in 2019 and had a nearly 3 WAR season as an example. 

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6 hours ago, 2Deep said:

Those are 2 BAD options.  We have to be better then this.........again I'm willing to let it play out before I start freaking out.

If either of them are in rotation, forget about contending in 2020.

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57 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Teams regularly cobble together production out of less expensive players, it's called getting value. 

Homer Bailey was paid $555K in 2019 and had a nearly 3 WAR season as an example. 

True. Someone always wins the lottery, but how many tickets did it take:)?

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Here’s where Fulmer, Burdi, Hansen, Adolfo, Rutherford, Basabe, Collins, Burger, Rodon...if just ONE of them had lived up to their potential, we’d now be in a much better position to put together an attractive trade offer, with no other legit FA’s being left on the table.

Instead, we’re seriously considering taking on David Price’s contract...it’s like we’ve learned absolutely nothing over these last 12 years of being shut out of the playoffs.

Or, even worse, being forced to trade Madrigal or Vaughn for more proven talent.

It’s sheer lunacy for a mid market team to make trades like that and hope to consistently win them.

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I don't really care to type this out again.  Short story - he'll be on an innings limit, and I'd rather have him pitching in Aug/Sep than April/May.  Getting the year of control back is gravy.  Furthermore, Hahn has alluded to Kopech starting in AAA many times. 

He will be held back for service time. Kopech is ready to rock. 

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