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Quin

2019 Lineup vs. 2020 Lineup WAR

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Using fWAR, here's the 2019 lineup vs. the 2020 lineup.

2019

C - James McCann, 2.3
1B - Jose Abreu, 1.9
2B - Yolmer Sanchez, 1.0
SS - Tim Anderson, 3.5
3B - Yoan Moncada, 5.7
LF - Eloy Jimenez, 1.9 
CF - Adam Engel, 0.8
RF - Ryan Cordell, -.2
DH - Yonder Alonso, -1.3=

2020, using 2019 numbers and Steamer projects for rookies

C - Yasmani Grandal, 5.2 (+2.9)
1B - Jose Abreu, 1.9
2B - Nick Madrigal, 1.7 (+.7)
SS - Tim Anderson, 3.5
3B - Yoan Moncada, 5.7
LF - Eloy Jimenez, 1.9
CF - Luis Robert, 2.3 (+1.5)
RF - Nomar Mazara, 0.5 (.7)
DH - James McCann, 2.3 (+3.6)

That lineup is 9.4 fWAR better. 

Now, Grandal, Anderson, Abreu, McCann, Jimenez and Moncada could all regress. But conceivably, Moncada, Anderson, Mazara and Jimenez could improve drastically. This is also assuming Madrigal and Robert have ok rookie seasons, when they'll both be capable of much more, especially Robert.

The lineup upgrades alone are nearly enough to get this team to .500. That's not quite playoffs, but it's something to be positive about when we still have a couple months of offseason left.

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This is where I’ve been at. Add a couple pitchers and they could win this poopy ass division

Edited by mqr
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Finally something positive!!! 

If we can get league average pitching instead of Santana, Covey, bullpen days etc that would be a few more wins. You can see how this team could make 85 wins plus!

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Wouldn't it be more accurate to use steamer for all players? 

C grandal 4.7

1b abreu 1.8

2b madrigal 1.7

SS anderson 2.0

3b moncada 3.8

Lf Jimenez 2.5

Cf robert 2.3

Rf mazara 1.4

Dh mccann 0.2 

That would be 20.4 war

 

Mccann will be worth less at dh but if vaughn comes up in june he could be worth 1.5 war the rest of the way.

 

So that could be about 22 war which is still pretty good especially if you get another 2-3 war from the bench which would come out at 25 then.

25 war would have ranked 6th in the al last year behind the red sox and ahead of the rays.

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12 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Wouldn't it be more accurate to use steamer for all players? 

C grandal 4.7

1b abreu 1.8

2b madrigal 1.7

SS anderson 2.0

3b moncada 3.8

Lf Jimenez 2.5

Cf robert 2.3

Rf mazara 1.4

Dh mccann 0.2 

That would be 20.4 war

 

Mccann will be worth less at dh but if vaughn comes up in june he could be worth 1.5 war the rest of the way.

 

So that could be about 22 war which is still pretty good especially if you get another 2-3 war from the bench which would come out at 25 then.

25 war would have ranked 6th in the al last year behind the red sox and ahead of the rays.

Yeah I think this makes more sense.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

Hmm...yeah I think you are cheating with McCanns numbers at DH

 

1 hour ago, Dominikk85 said:

Wouldn't it be more accurate to use steamer for all players? 

C grandal 4.7

1b abreu 1.8

2b madrigal 1.7

SS anderson 2.0

3b moncada 3.8

Lf Jimenez 2.5

Cf robert 2.3

Rf mazara 1.4

Dh mccann 0.2 

That would be 20.4 war

 

Mccann will be worth less at dh but if vaughn comes up in june he could be worth 1.5 war the rest of the way.

 

So that could be about 22 war which is still pretty good especially if you get another 2-3 war from the bench which would come out at 25 then.

25 war would have ranked 6th in the al last year behind the red sox and ahead of the rays.

Basically, I didn't want to account for regression or progression. It was just with Madrigal and Robert I had no numbers to go off of.

Also, I brain farted on McCann's positional change effecting his WAR that drastically. But he also won't be a DH all the time, just needed to slot him in.

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Quin, using numbers to assist his point is showing how we are becoming a good team. 

The either majority or vocal minority of the board thinks the re-build has failed, and use White Sox fandom as like sports related self harm 🤕.

more data driven logic and less moaning would make this a nicer place to spend free time.

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29 minutes ago, Colinski said:

Quin, using numbers to assist his point is showing how we are becoming a good team. 

The either majority or vocal minority of the board thinks the re-build has failed, and use White Sox fandom as like sports related self harm 🤕.

more data driven logic and less moaning would make this a nicer place to spend free time.

Shout-out to @Dominikk85 for pointing out a different way to look at it (that's probably more accurate) and is still positive.

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2 hours ago, reiks12 said:

There is no way McCann gets 2.3 WAR at DH. Without any moves I would say our DH position is going to be pretty bad next year.

Well at some point probably Vaughn will be up either at first or DH so dh and 1b would be pretty solid with Vaughn and abreu if Vaughn doesn't struggle and abreu doesn't decline.

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21 minutes ago, Quin said:

Shout-out to @Dominikk85 for pointing out a different way to look at it (that's probably more accurate) and is still positive.

Thanks. Didn't want to show you up or anything and projections aren't perfect but usually they are more predictive than last years numbers (and also more predictive than early season stats).

The offense doesn't look bad and it has upside albeit there is also some downside. Some players will improve and hopefully most of the breakouts will stick albeit one shouldn't make the mistake to assume all positive from last year to remain and all bad to improve (which you didn't do of course)

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29 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Thanks. Didn't want to show you up or anything and projections aren't perfect but usually they are more predictive than last years numbers (and also more predictive than early season stats).

The offense doesn't look bad and it has upside albeit there is also some downside. Some players will improve and hopefully most of the breakouts will stick albeit one shouldn't make the mistake to assume all positive from last year to remain and all bad to improve (which you didn't do of course)

Nah, I appreciate it.

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53 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Thanks. Didn't want to show you up or anything and projections aren't perfect but usually they are more predictive than last years numbers (and also more predictive than early season stats).

The offense doesn't look bad and it has upside albeit there is also some downside. Some players will improve and hopefully most of the breakouts will stick albeit one shouldn't make the mistake to assume all positive from last year to remain and all bad to improve (which you didn't do of course)

Steamer, in general, is slow to react to younger players who have developed/improved. Its actually why I was a bit surprised by Gios number. 

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I expect Anderson, Abreu, McCann, Moncada to regress a bit. Anderson, McCann and Yoan's BABIP was high, but Moncada had a high exit velocity so I think his regression will be minimalised. Abreu is just getting older.

But you can, rationally, figure that Granda, Abreu, Moncada will probably have a wRC+ over 100, Anderson and Collins will probably hover around 100, give or take around 10 points. Robert, Madrigal, Collins, and Eloy are gonna be the key to this offence.

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I remember the good old days when I did this exercise before 2015 and convinced myself that they were in a good position that season.

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3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

How do the current projections look for the pitching staff and where would it rank in the AL? I imagine they’d be in the bottom 5 in the league without any further moves of significance.

There's now a whole thread for the rotation arguing. Don't derail a thread next time.

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5 minutes ago, Quin said:

There's now a whole thread for the rotation arguing. Don't derail a thread next time.

I’m not sure how you assess the the overall impact of an improved lineup on wins/losses in 2020 compared to last season without also assessing the pitching staff. I believe it’s relevant to your original post since next season’s record is mentioned towards the end of the post.

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37 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not sure how you assess the the overall impact of an improved lineup on wins/losses in 2020 compared to last season without also assessing the pitching staff. I believe it’s relevant to your original post since next season’s record is mentioned towards the end of the post.

Lineup =/= rotation

We then had two pages of rotation talk

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On 12/15/2019 at 7:18 AM, Dominikk85 said:

Wouldn't it be more accurate to use steamer for all players? 

C grandal 4.7

1b abreu 1.8

2b madrigal 1.7

SS anderson 2.0

3b moncada 3.8

Lf Jimenez 2.5

Cf robert 2.3

Rf mazara 1.4

Dh mccann 0.2 

That would be 20.4 war

 

Mccann will be worth less at dh but if vaughn comes up in june he could be worth 1.5 war the rest of the way.

 

So that could be about 22 war which is still pretty good especially if you get another 2-3 war from the bench which would come out at 25 then.

25 war would have ranked 6th in the al last year behind the red sox and ahead of the rays.

I don't think Vaughn comes up in June. He maybe fast tracked. But not that fast. Don't get me wrong would love to see that.

But I really like your lineup. And I think it's going to sneak up on the league and fans in general. 

Edited by smellysox

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17 minutes ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

image.png

4 WAR for Moncada is pretty conservative.  I think he's about to move into the elite of elites territory. 

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On 12/15/2019 at 3:07 AM, Quin said:

Using fWAR, here's the 2019 lineup vs. the 2020 lineup.

2019

C - James McCann, 2.3
1B - Jose Abreu, 1.9
2B - Yolmer Sanchez, 1.0
SS - Tim Anderson, 3.5
3B - Yoan Moncada, 5.7
LF - Eloy Jimenez, 1.9 
CF - Adam Engel, 0.8
RF - Ryan Cordell, -.2
DH - Yonder Alonso, -1.3=

2020, using 2019 numbers and Steamer projects for rookies

C - Yasmani Grandal, 5.2 (+2.9)
1B - Jose Abreu, 1.9
2B - Nick Madrigal, 1.7 (+.7)
SS - Tim Anderson, 3.5
3B - Yoan Moncada, 5.7
LF - Eloy Jimenez, 1.9
CF - Luis Robert, 2.3 (+1.5)
RF - Nomar Mazara, 0.5 (.7)
DH - James McCann, 2.3 (+3.6)

That lineup is 9.4 fWAR better. 

Now, Grandal, Anderson, Abreu, McCann, Jimenez and Moncada could all regress. But conceivably, Moncada, Anderson, Mazara and Jimenez could improve drastically. This is also assuming Madrigal and Robert have ok rookie seasons, when they'll both be capable of much more, especially Robert.

The lineup upgrades alone are nearly enough to get this team to .500. That's not quite playoffs, but it's something to be positive about when we still have a couple months of offseason left.

Why would you use 2019 numbers instead of projections?

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