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Sox In on Lindor? Crackpot Rumor?

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Age:

Anderson - 26

Lindor - 26

2019:

Anderson - 3.5 fWAR - 4.05 WAR/600

Lindor - 4.4 fWAR - 4.03 WAR/600

Contract:

Anderson - 5 years/47.25 million

Lindor - 2 year/40 million (estimate)

Surplus:

Anderson - 87.75 Million

Lindor - 50 million

 

Lindor is really good, but I'll go ahead and hang onto Anderson and not trade him ++ other high end pieces for 2 years of Lindor.

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1 hour ago, Steve9347 said:

Counter point: he's a top 10 player in baseball and is 26 years old and the White Sox could completely redefine their franchise by giving him an amazing extension and revitalize a saddened fanbase and go on to win 3 of the next 7 World Series.

But fuck it. Money.

Jerry paying Lindor a massive extension? That’s funny. 

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2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Age:

Anderson - 26

Lindor - 26

2019:

Anderson - 3.5 fWAR - 4.05 WAR/600

Lindor - 4.4 fWAR - 4.03 WAR/600

Contract:

Anderson - 5 years/47.25 million

Lindor - 2 year/40 million (estimate)

Surplus:

Anderson - 87.75 Million

Lindor - 50 million

 

Lindor is really good, but I'll go ahead and hang onto Anderson and not trade him ++ other high end pieces for 2 years of Lindor.

Yeah it makes zero sense at all. 

What we need is a TOR pitcher. If you are gonna move assets you move them for that piece not a SS who is neither cost controlled not on a long term deal. 

Even if TA's numbers regress to 3 WAR, he is making a little over 9m a year for a long time. Still much better value. 

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Again, a Lindor trade and extension makes sense to the Sox MO. Don't get into a bidding war with others by making an early extension.  Hahn has said that they really only want to pay people a contract like Machado if that player is in their prime. Lindor's age would fit what the Sox would throw money at, IF THEY WOULD ever actually throw money at a big contract. 

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1 hour ago, Steve9347 said:

Counter point: he's a top 10 player in baseball and is 26 years old and the White Sox could completely redefine their franchise by giving him an amazing extension and revitalize a saddened fanbase and go on to win 3 of the next 7 World Series.

But fuck it. Money.

Yes. If they paid the man and tossed a $300 mill extension in his lap, sure. But the organization hasn't given out a 100+ mill contract so color me skeptical.

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38 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Age:

Anderson - 26

Lindor - 26

2019:

Anderson - 3.5 fWAR - 4.05 WAR/600

Lindor - 4.4 fWAR - 4.03 WAR/600

Contract:

Anderson - 5 years/47.25 million

Lindor - 2 year/40 million (estimate)

Surplus:

Anderson - 87.75 Million

Lindor - 50 million

 

Lindor is really good, but I'll go ahead and hang onto Anderson and not trade him ++ other high end pieces for 2 years of Lindor.

What are those surplus value forecasts assuming?  Please tell me you didn’t just take their 2019 fWARs and project them forward?

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I don't think this happens...but add lindor and Ryu and you have a pretty nice window to win starting NOW. That lineup would be the best in AL only to maybe the Yankees and Astros...and maybe even better in 1 season. My worry is who they would have to give up outside of TA.

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50 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Age:

Anderson - 26

Lindor - 26

2019:

Anderson - 3.5 fWAR - 4.05 WAR/600

Lindor - 4.4 fWAR - 4.03 WAR/600

Contract:

Anderson - 5 years/47.25 million

Lindor - 2 year/40 million (estimate)

Surplus:

Anderson - 87.75 Million

Lindor - 50 million

 

Lindor is really good, but I'll go ahead and hang onto Anderson and not trade him ++ other high end pieces for 2 years of Lindor.

And you called my citing of Giolito’s 2020 projection dumb...🤣

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Francisco Lindor's worst season is a 4.0 WAR.

To put Tim Anderson anywhere close to him is hilarious. If you are going to base TA's surplus value vs. his best season, shouldn't you do the same with Lindor, and his 7.6? What is the surplus value then?

That said, the tweet was BS and it makes no sense to trade for him unless you can lock him up for a long time. Come in second when he becomes a free agent.

Edited by Dick Allen
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45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What are those surplus value forecasts assuming?  Please tell me you didn’t just take their 2019 fWARs and project them forward?

Nah, I didn't.

I took their projected WAR's from my data. Lindor projected for 5.2 and 4.8 WAR. 

Tim Projected for: 3.4, 3.1, 3.1, 2.8, 2.6.

I use 9 million/per WAR as my value calculation.

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41 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

This also is an absolute sell high moment for TA, which is why I hope the Sox would get more value out of him than 2 seasons on a return...

Tim not in the trade package.idk if they trade him after for a veteran ace

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32 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Francisco Lindor's worst season is a 4.0 WAR.

To put Tim Anderson anywhere close to him is hilarious. If you are going to base TA's surplus value vs. his best season, shouldn't you do the same with Lindor, and his 7.6? What is the surplus value then?

That said, the tweet was BS and it makes no sense to trade for him unless you can lock him up for a long time. Come in second when he becomes a free agent.

Well, that's not at all what I did but sure.

Last year, Tim Anderson had a better WAR/600 than Lindor. Lindor is absolutely a better player - there is no denying that - but when taking into account their contracts and control I certainly don't think it's absurd to say 5 years of Anderson at his price is more valuable than 2 years of Lindor at his price.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Nah, I didn't.

I took their projected WAR's from my data. Lindor projected for 5.2 and 4.8 WAR. 

Tim Projected for: 3.4, 3.1, 3.1, 2.8, 2.6.

I use 9 million/per WAR as my value calculation.

What source are you using for projected wins above replacement? Please post a link. I’m curious.

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39 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Francisco Lindor's worst season is a 4.0 WAR.

To put Tim Anderson anywhere close to him is hilarious. If you are going to base TA's surplus value vs. his best season, shouldn't you do the same with Lindor, and his 7.6? What is the surplus value then?

That said, the tweet was BS and it makes no sense to trade for him unless you can lock him up for a long time. Come in second when he becomes a free agent.

"Well, we really liked him and even briefly considered trading for him a couple years ago.  But, we were happy to have a seat at the table and felt pretty good about our chances.  He chose to play elsewhere, but we thought we had a chance."

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What source are you using for projected wins above replacement? Please post a link. I’m curious.

These are from my data; take it for whatever it is worth to you. Maybe nothing.

I combined 4 projection tools, and I weight league wide changes more quickly - which does not mean it's more efficient, but it means someone like Anderson might not be dinged as much for an escalated BABIP if league wide BABIPs were high, while Lindor was docked slightly for an iso decline despite a league wide iso escalation. 

I don't think what I do is perfect, and weighting league wide changes into the following year can lead to issues (such as baseball changing the baseballs back and those past changes being artificial) but I do trust my projections on players with Anderson's profile/pedigree and while I am certainly more optimistic than other services, I also tend to factor/believe in changes much more quickly as I prefer a 2 year and 18 month past look to the standard 3 year. Time will tell, but I don't think 15ish WAR over the next 5 years is crazy for Anderson.

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2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Maybe one exists out there but could you please find me an example where a team that traded for a superstar free agent to be for a short period of time such as 2 years or less convinced him to sign an extension ?

I feel like extension talk comes up on trading for every superstar like Lindor or Betts and goes on and on without ever being a real possibility.

I understand this is a fantasy type trade that will never happen and it's fun to discuss the possibilities but once the trade is done in your mind perhaps the rest of the fantasy should be grounded in reality.

You'll notice Mike Trout was extended (albeit no trade was involved, but he didn't test the market). It's about throwing the dollars on the table and giving them no choice. The Sox would never do that, of course.

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Age:

Anderson - 26

Lindor - 26

2019:

Anderson - 3.5 fWAR - 4.05 WAR/600

Lindor - 4.4 fWAR - 4.03 WAR/600

Contract:

Anderson - 5 years/47.25 million

Lindor - 2 year/40 million (estimate)

Surplus:

Anderson - 87.75 Million

Lindor - 50 million

 

Lindor is really good, but I'll go ahead and hang onto Anderson and not trade him ++ other high end pieces for 2 years of Lindor.

I can't believe how many people think TA's 2019 (.399 babip) won't wind up being an outlier. He's got a career 98 OPS+ (vs Lindor's 118) and will come back down to Earth.

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5 minutes ago, Steve9347 said:

I can't believe how many people think TA's 2019 (.399 babip) won't wind up being an outlier. He's got a career 98 OPS+ (vs Lindor's 118) and will come back down to Earth.

So Tim Anderson runs a 350 BABIP, instead of a 399 BABIP, and his defense improves and he gets to a little more power.

What do his numbers look like? 

I have Anderson projected for a 352 BABIP next year. Slashing 306/332/521 good for a wRC+ of 121.

Anderson's wRC+ last year was 130 while Lindor's was 114. 2 years ago Lindor had a 130 wRC+ and was a 7+ fWAR player. 

I can't believe how many people on the internet like to cite players stats from when they were 24 while completely writing off major adjustments and changes made sense. 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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9 minutes ago, Steve9347 said:

You'll notice Mike Trout was extended (albeit no trade was involved, but he didn't test the market). It's about throwing the dollars on the table and giving them no choice. The Sox would never do that, of course.

This is literally not at all what happened.

Trout took less money than he'd get on the open market because he didn't give a fuck about the extra million when he had 400 coming his way. 

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21 minutes ago, Steve9347 said:

You'll notice Mike Trout was extended (albeit no trade was involved, but he didn't test the market). It's about throwing the dollars on the table and giving them no choice. The Sox would never do that, of course.

I'll notice a lot of guys get extended and none by teams that just acquired them in a trade . They always have a choice that's why it's called FREE agency. Free to seek the best offer from the team they prefer. SInce you didn't give me an example that I asked for it's not just the Sox who can't bend players to their will.

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9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'll notice a lot of guys get extended and none by teams that just acquired them in a trade . They always have a choice that's why it's called FREE agency. Free to seek the best offer from the team they prefer. SInce you didn't give me an example that I asked for it's not just the Sox who can't bend players to their will.

I think it's more coming to terms with the fact that the White Sox will never have and keep top talent. Kiss Moncada goodbye.

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9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'll notice a lot of guys get extended and none by teams that just acquired them in a trade . They always have a choice that's why it's called FREE agency. Free to seek the best offer from the team they prefer. SInce you didn't give me an example that I asked for it's not just the Sox who can't bend players to their will.

Freddy Garcia.. The problem is when they are so close to being a free agent, why limit it to one place you aren't very familiar with? 

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10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'll notice a lot of guys get extended and none by teams that just acquired them in a trade . They always have a choice that's why it's called FREE agency. Free to seek the best offer from the team they prefer. SInce you didn't give me an example that I asked for it's not just the Sox who can't bend players to their will.

Paul Goldschmidt...just happened less than a year ago. 

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