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Sox In on Lindor? Crackpot Rumor?

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3 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Agreed with this train of thought. A lindor move and extension would keep my pessimistic mouth shut for a long ass time. 

Lindor is a top 5 player in all of baseball behind/around Trout/Acuna maybe Yellich. 

 

Apparently you and a lot of others agree with that silly train of thought. From Smardizja to Betts to Lindor I have read hundreds of posts about extending a traded for player with a year or 2 left on their contracts . It doesn't happen .

I've asked time and time again for examples of a new team that traded for a superstar or even a good player who ended up getting an extension. No one can find one. Impending superstar free agents want to test the market unless the team they played for up until that point extends them because of the mutual respect for each other through years of association.

Best case scenario in case  the Indians are stupid enough to trade Lindor ( somehow the Indians preferring a Sox package centered around Madrigal and Vaughn instead a much more attractive offer from the Dodgers ) to a divisional rival would be the Sox flipping him right away to the Dodgers to fill that #2 spot in the rotation and more like Verdugo

Yes I'm repeating myself on this but that's what happens when I see talk of extensions. My silliness vs. yours.

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54 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

These are from my data; take it for whatever it is worth to you. Maybe nothing.

I combined 4 projection tools, and I weight league wide changes more quickly - which does not mean it's more efficient, but it means someone like Anderson might not be dinged as much for an escalated BABIP if league wide BABIPs were high, while Lindor was docked slightly for an iso decline despite a league wide iso escalation. 

I don't think what I do is perfect, and weighting league wide changes into the following year can lead to issues (such as baseball changing the baseballs back and those past changes being artificial) but I do trust my projections on players with Anderson's profile/pedigree and while I am certainly more optimistic than other services, I also tend to factor/believe in changes much more quickly as I prefer a 2 year and 18 month past look to the standard 3 year. Time will tell, but I don't think 15ish WAR over the next 5 years is crazy for Anderson.

I’m not even questioning TA’s projections all that much (though they do appear to be on the high end) but the only way Lindor doesn’t exceed 10 WAR over the next two seasons combined is if he misses time due to injury. You’re too low on him.

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14 minutes ago, Steve9347 said:

I think it's more coming to terms with the fact that the White Sox will never have and keep top talent. Kiss Moncada goodbye.

Then they better start operating more like Tampa Bay and Oakland which I have already stated multiple times that they should because I realized what you just said a while ago.

I'd rather not be like Colorado extending their superstar then trying to trade him after he has no surplus value. If you can't resign them trade them and get something for them and retool on the fly like Cleveland Tampa Oakland . It seems to produce winning teams as long as you keep the flow of young talent coming in ,along with paying good talent evaluators and spending your IFA money and using developmental sciences.

Problem is I also realized the Sox don't do those things either. They are a rudderless franchise and perhaps that's what hurts them more then anything.

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21 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not even questioning TA’s projections all that much (though they do appear to be on the high end) but the only way Lindor doesn’t exceed 10 WAR over the next two seasons combined is if he misses time due to injury. You’re too low on him.

It is certainly possible. 

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1 hour ago, Steve9347 said:

I can't believe how many people think TA's 2019 (.399 babip) won't wind up being an outlier. He's got a career 98 OPS+ (vs Lindor's 118) and will come back down to Earth.

Anderson’s expected BABIP last year was above .350. There’s no reason to think that last season was completely luck. He made real changes and improvements and simply writing them off as an outlier is lazy

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38 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Freddy Garcia.. The problem is when they are so close to being a free agent, why limit it to one place you aren't very familiar with? 

Freddy Garcia ? He was with the Sox for 3 years in his age 27 28 and 29 seasons then went to Philly and Detroit for 2 years then resigned with the Sox at age 32 for 3 seasons. I don't see a long term extension anywhere.

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36 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Freddy Garcia ? He was with the Sox for 3 years in his age 27 28 and 29 seasons then went to Philly and Detroit for 2 years then resigned with the Sox at age 32 for 3 seasons. I don't see a long term extension anywhere.

When he was first acquired, he was a few months from being a free agent. Sox signed him to a surprising extension. 

 

CHICAGO -- The Chicago White Sox acquired All-Star pitcher Freddy Garcia from the Seattle Mariners on Sunday, bolstering their rotation for the AL Central race.

 

Garcia, who can become a free agent after this season, will
pitch for White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, one of his best friends.

Edited by Dick Allen

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1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Freddy Garcia ? He was with the Sox for 3 years in his age 27 28 and 29 seasons then went to Philly and Detroit for 2 years then resigned with the Sox at age 32 for 3 seasons. I don't see a long term extension anywhere.

I gave you an example and you continued to say nobody is giving you an example. 

I agree with you that extensions like that are very unlikely, but I did give you an example. 

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2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Anderson’s expected BABIP last year was above .350. There’s no reason to think that last season was completely luck. He made real changes and improvements and simply writing them off as an outlier is lazy

While he was of course lucky to have a 399 BABIP, it wasn't more lucky than a guy running a 340 BABIP with an expected at 300. Or a guy running a 320 with an expected at 280. The size of the number doesn't really matter, and Tim is certainly capable of improving his power and his defense which would off-set anything he lost from a .40 point BABIP spike.

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29 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Can't believe anyone would want to trade this man:

Face of the organization and the rebuild. 

I'm 99.9% sure this tweet was directed right at Steve in this thread.

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4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm 99.9% sure this tweet was directed right at Steve in this thread.

Irrelevant to this thread or maybe not,anyway why the gio signing hasn't been announced?maybe they wait to introduce him with Lindor?😉

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59 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Paul Goldschmidt...just happened less than a year ago. 

Thanks. I'm glad there is one. The Sox aren't the Cardinals of course but if people want to keep thinking the Sox can trade for a superstar FA to be at the age of 27 and extend him for 9/10 years for $350M+ more power to them and I will stop reminding them how it's impossible.

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20 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I gave you an example and you continued to say nobody is giving you an example. 

I agree with you that extensions like that are very unlikely, but I did give you an example. 

I needed a chance to catch up with the rest of the thread. I did respond to that post.

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2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Nah, I didn't.

I took their projected WAR's from my data. Lindor projected for 5.2 and 4.8 WAR. 

Tim Projected for: 3.4, 3.1, 3.1, 2.8, 2.6.

I use 9 million/per WAR as my value calculation.

Why would he lose 0.3 WAR as a 27 year old in 2021?  Same question basically applies to Lindor.

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I am totally against trading Tim Anderson.  I know Lindor is a fantastic talent but I want to win with my guys. 

Tim Anderson

- Signed a Long Term Extension With the Club

- Leader During A Tough Rebuild

- Exciting Player

- Fairly Good Shortstop

 

Can we just sign good players instead of trade our team leader for upgrades. 

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I'm on the don't trade Timmy side... I'd almost rather deal Madrigal in the deal and shift Tim to 2B if we actually do believe this bs rumor that will never happen in our lives that is Lindor.

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30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why would he lose 0.3 WAR as a 27 year old in 2021?  Same question basically applies to Lindor.

Anderson's past still has some weight here, even with me weighting 2019 more than most publicly available publication. As for Lindor, we see a similar thing, as I weigh the last 18 months more than the last 36 months by nearly 1.8 times. This will skew my projections to be impacted, maybe too much, by some recency bias but I like that aggressive outlook.

Also, Anderson's defense I can't really project much better than below average - despite his tools. I don't even know how to write a model to account for skills (range) over outcomes defensively; I'm not smart enough. If Anderson's defense improves, those projections go up 1-2 WAR a year.

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2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Anderson's past still has some weight here, even with me weighting 2019 more than most publicly available publication. As for Lindor, we see a similar thing, as I weigh the last 18 months more than the last 36 months by nearly 1.8 times. This will skew my projections to be impacted, maybe too much, by some recency bias but I like that aggressive outlook.

Also, Anderson's defense I can't really project much better than below average - despite his tools. I don't even know how to write a model to account for skills (range) over outcomes defensively; I'm not smart enough. If Anderson's defense improves, those projections go up 1-2 WAR a year.

No, I’m asking why are these guys both seeing production drops in 2021 as 27 year olds vs your projections for 2020.

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16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No, I’m asking why are these guys both seeing production drops in 2021 as 27 year olds vs your projections for 2020.

I'd have to look at my positional peaks. They are tied to PA and age. So just brainstorming, lindor may be approaching his projected defensive peak. I think tim will continue to get better, so my opinion sides with you, but if his defense gets worse or declines at 28, 29 and 30 that drives his WAR down. I believe my SS defensive peak is 26/27 seasons assuming 4-5 year service time. Defense drops younger than offense.

My Lindor difference is simply a games played discrepancy. I have him at 144 games next year and 155 in his age 27 season. I should probably normalize games played to 150 - but I tend to focus on my WAR/600 projections more. His WAR/600 is almost exactly the same both years.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why would he lose 0.3 WAR as a 27 year old in 2021?  Same question basically applies to Lindor.

Just saw the quoted posted. 4.8 is next year for Lindor, 5.2 is the year following. And it's just a PA difference really. Rates are about identical.

I Appreciate the questions. 

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As you all suspected it was fake. Once the tigers fan heard the Sox signed keuchel he told me to go fuck my self and fuck the white sox. Jokes on him he’s a tigers fan lolol

 

fun to discuss anyways

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