Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option

[The Sir]

17 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

I think Keuchel is going to end up being a better fit for the Sox long term. Wheeler would’ve been nice but we needed someone to mentor the young pitchers. Gio will help in that as well. 

I’d put money on Wheeler being a total mediocrity over the course of his deal, regardless of years and money. Much rather have Keuchel.

[Quin]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That's what I remember reading a few days ago.

 

Yes both with multiple Glove Gloves, both with great pick off moves , both multiple All Stars games . Could you also say both are ground balls pitchers ?

Just keep Joe West away from the plate with Keuchel on the mound or he'll call balks on him  like he did with Buerhle. Didn't MB have some kind of streak going and West kicked him out of the game after calling 2 balks on him ?

Yes, but Buehrle threw even softer and struck out way less people. Keuchel is essentially super Buehrle when it comes to pure stuff.

Which isn't take away from Mark. Dude got more out of his pitches than probably any pitcher ever, but Sox fans are obsessed with comparing any lefty with a fastball around 90 and good defense to Buehrle. 

This is only fresh in my mind because Garfein did it on the podcast and Kamka smacked it down, because Buehrle is a high margin of error. I highly recommend this Grantland piece on why he's probably the strangest pitcher of all time.

https://grantland.com/features/mark-buehrle-surprising-success/

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Am I wrong for wanting to see Mendick get his shot over throwing any money at Holt?

Nah it's just that Holt is a proven commodity, but for a small sample size Medick did great and shows more HR power than Madrigal ever will.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Good move.

Now we need one more good big bat and we're in business.   

Bring on Lindor 😄!

Edited December 22, 2019 by South Side Fireworks Man

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Yes, but Buehrle threw even softer and struck out way less people. Keuchel is essentially super Buehrle when it comes to pure stuff.

Which isn't take away from Mark. Dude got more out of his pitches than probably any pitcher ever, but Sox fans are obsessed with comparing any lefty with a fastball around 90 and good defense to Buehrle. 

This is only fresh in my mind because Garfein did it on the podcast and Kamka smacked it down, because Buehrle is a high margin of error. I highly recommend this Grantland piece on why he's probably the strangest pitcher of all time.

https://grantland.com/features/mark-buehrle-surprising-success/

Sox fans aren't the only ones . I've heard it on MLBN maybe from Plesac or Smoltz. And I guaranteed someone on the MLBN will say it again if there's anyone there in the next few days considering most of the regular guys are morethan likely already off for the holiday.

[bachy]

I don't know how to embed a tweet. Regardless, I'd like to think I may have had a little hand in getting this one done.

 

Link

[mattdavidsonsflow]

26 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Who cares about WAR?

19 starts last year. 12 of them quality. Only gave up more than 4 ERs twice, and only in his sole disaster outing of the year did he fail to pitch five innings. Dude will give us a decent chance to win every time he goes out.

Dylan Covey gave us one QS in 12. We were pretty much finished in several of his starts before we even came to bat. He’s DONE.

Ross Detwiler gave us two QS in 12. He’s DONE.

Despaigne, Santana, and Banuelos gave us one QS in 14. There’s four QS in 38 games. And it’s not like they were just failing to reach the six inning mark to have QS; those five gave up four or more ER in 21 of their starts. They’re DONE.

Keuchel eliminates all of them. And he’s reliable, unlike Ryu. Too many people on here think we need an ace. No- arguably, we already have one in Lucas. We now just need people to add to the potent but untested youth who will give us a chance to win and keep the uninteresting (for us fans) and disastrous (for our W-L) pitchers off the mound.

Dallas and Gio do that just fine.

Very well said IMO. Dallas is going to give this improved offense a fair to good chance to win every 5th day.

[Chicago White Sox]

34 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Am I wrong for wanting to see Mendick get his shot over throwing any money at Holt?

We need depth and a guy who can start at 2B for 4 to 5 weeks.  Are you willing to bank on Mendick in the starting lineup for a sizable stretch?  If not, we should be adding a guy who can start 2B until Nick is ready and then move to a reserve role.

[Moan4Yoan]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We need depth and a guy who can start at 2B for 4 to 5 weeks.  Are you willing to bank on Mendick in the starting lineup for a sizable stretch?  If not, we should be adding a guy who can start 2B until Nick is ready and then move to a reserve role.

I think I am.  He looked fine in his limited playing time.  But yeah, it sucks that Renteria barley played him.

[SoxAce]

I wonder if McCann will be Keuchel's personal catcher as well.

 

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We need depth and a guy who can start at 2B for 4 to 5 weeks.  Are you willing to bank on Mendick in the starting lineup for a sizable stretch?  If not, we should be adding a guy who can start 2B until Nick is ready and then move to a reserve role.

Gennett is another name oft-discussed, Dietrich too...

[Steve9347]

3 hours ago, GradMc said:

The key to this pitching staff is still Rey Rey Lopez.

Why? He’s an emergency option by May. 
 

Holy shit. What an off-season!

[BackDoorBreach]

I wanted nothing to do with Keuchel since well before FA started.  The money and years are fine imo, not really seeing a huge overpay.

If it was down to Keuchel/Ryu I'm taking Keuchel for this team.  You at least know he's going to pitch every 5th day unlike Ryu and we need that.  They had to do something for this rotation.  He does profile nicely as a LH control pitcher when everyone else is RH power.

[Eminor3rd]

I know I'm going to get shit on for being negative, because everyone is excited that they don't have to watch Dylan Covey pitch all year, and I get that, but looking at this in full context, I hate all of it.

Classic White Sox. Get the 6th best guy on the market for roughly $50M, call it a marquee signing because the guy used to be good.

The guy had a 4.72 FIP last year. Wasn't even worth 1 WAR in 112 innings. He's a fourth starter with the upside to be a 3. 

THIS is what I was afraid of. "The money will be spent" means spending $15-20M on a handful of okay players. It's Melky Cabreras all over again. All the teams that actually get to the playoffs are developing their averageish players and buying the elite talent to truly supplement their core.

Altogether now, the White have committed a bit over $60m next year to:

1. A good catcher to upgrade a spot where they already had a solid player, who may be overvalued because we aren't actually sure how to quantify pitch framing

2. A slightly above average 1B/DH

3. a SP with a near 5 FIP last year, worth just under 1.5 fWAR if you extrapolated to a full season. Steamer project 2.6 next year, mostly on past track record.

4. 34-year old Gio Gonzalez

5. a reclamation project RF who has failed for four seasons now.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have committed $36M to Gerrit Cole, the best pitcher in baseball, who Steamer projects at 6 and half wins. The White Sox spent nearly TWICE as much on a bunch of useful spare parts.

Having missed on the actual difference makers, the White Sox would have been better off just punting until next year, and letting their players continue to develop, to have another shot at a true difference maker in Betts or whatever.

Except of course that they would never actually have a chance at Betts, because the ownership/front office is too afraid of long-term contracts to actually have a chance to win. Every successful team is investing heavily in player development and then being opportunistic with elite, big-time players. The White Sox won't play that game. 

Yeah, I know, if literally everything goes as good as it could go next year, the Sox could win 85-90 games. Everyone is healthy, everyone takes a step forward, no one regresses, etc. But, I'll put it this way: there are only two teams insisting on this strategy of spending inefficient FA money on 5 middle-of-the-road players instead of 2 elite ones -- and it's the White Sox and the Reds. That's your model. Basically the Pirates the last five years.

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Eminor3rd

[ChiSox1917]

6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I know I'm going to get shit on for being negative, because everyone is excited that they don't have to watch Dylan Covey pitch all year, and I get that, but looking at this in full context, I hate all of it.

Classic White Sox. Get the 6th best guy on the market for roughly $50M, call it a marquee signing because the guy used to be good.

The guy had a 4.72 FIP last year. Wasn't even worth 1 WAR in 112 innings. He's a fourth starter with the upside to be a 3. 

THIS is what I was afraid of. "The money will be spent" means spending $15-20M on a handful of okay players. It's Melky Cabreras all over again. All the teams that actually get to the playoffs are developing their averageish players and buying the elite talent to truly supplement their core.

Altogether now, the White have committed a bit over $60m next year to:

1. A good catcher to upgrade a spot where they already had a solid player, who may be overvalued because we aren't actually sure how to quantify pitch framing

2. A slightly above average 1B/DH

3. a SP with a near 5 FIP last year, worth just under 1.5 fWAR if you extrapolated to a full season. Steamer project 2.6 next year, mostly on past track record.

4. 34-year old Gio Gonzalez

5. a reclamation project RF who has failed for four seasons now.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have committed $36M to Gerrit Cole, the best pitcher in baseball, who Steamer projects at 6 and half wins. The White Sox spent nearly TWICE as much on a bunch of useful spare parts.

Having missed on the actual difference makers, the White Sox would have been better off just punting until next year, and letting their players continue to develop, to have another shot at a true difference maker in Betts or whatever.

Except of course that they would never actually have a chance at Betts, because the ownership/front office is too afraid of long-term contracts to actually have a chance to win. Every successful team is investing heavily in player development and then being opportunistic with elite, big-time players. The White Sox won't play that game. 

Yeah, I know, if literally everything goes as good as it could go next year, the Sox could win 85-90 games. Everyone is healthy, everyone takes a step forward, no one regresses, etc. But, I'll put it this way: there are only two teams insisting on this strategy of spending inefficient FA money on 5 middle-of-the-road players instead of 2 elite ones -- and it's the White Sox and the Reds. That's your model. Basically the Pirates the last five years.

 

Good thing FIP has absolutely nothing to do with how many runs a pitcher actually gives up.  

[Timmy U]

Not a fan of Keuchel and I fear he has late period James Shields potential.  I don’t think the 2022 squad is going to benefit by his presence.  That said, probably makes them better this year.  

[Moan4Yoan]

13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

1. A good catcher to upgrade a spot where they already had a solid player, who may be overvalued because we aren't actually sure how to quantify pitch framing

You lost me here.  You mention that Hahn added a bunch of mid-tier players but seem convinced that McCann is the real deal?

Does not compute.

[Eminor3rd]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Good thing FIP has absolutely nothing to do with how many runs a pitcher actually gives up.  

If defense had absolutely nothing to do with how many runs a pitcher gives up, you'd be right.

But it does, so...

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I know I'm going to get shit on for being negative, because everyone is excited that they don't have to watch Dylan Covey pitch all year, and I get that, but looking at this in full context, I hate all of it.

Classic White Sox. Get the 6th best guy on the market for roughly $50M, call it a marquee signing because the guy used to be good.

The guy had a 4.72 FIP last year. Wasn't even worth 1 WAR in 112 innings. He's a fourth starter with the upside to be a 3. 

THIS is what I was afraid of. "The money will be spent" means spending $15-20M on a handful of okay players. It's Melky Cabreras all over again. All the teams that actually get to the playoffs are developing their averageish players and buying the elite talent to truly supplement their core.

Altogether now, the White have committed a bit over $60m next year to:

1. A good catcher to upgrade a spot where they already had a solid player, who may be overvalued because we aren't actually sure how to quantify pitch framing

2. A slightly above average 1B/DH

3. a SP with a near 5 FIP last year, worth just under 1.5 fWAR if you extrapolated to a full season. Steamer project 2.6 next year, mostly on past track record.

4. 34-year old Gio Gonzalez

5. a reclamation project RF who has failed for four seasons now.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have committed $36M (something like two thirds of that much) to Gerrit Cole, the best pitcher in baseball, who Steamer projects at 6 and half wins. The White Sox spent nearly TWICE as much on a bunch of useful spare parts.

Having missed on the actual difference makers, the White Sox would have been better off just punting until next year, and letting their players continue to develop, to have another shot a t a true difference maker in Betts or whatever.

Except of course that they would never actually have a chance at Betts, because the ownership/front office is too afraid of long-term contracts to actually have a chance to win. Every successful team is investing heavily in player development and then being opportunistic with elite, big-time players. The White Sox won't play that game.

Yeah, I know, if literally everything goes as good as it could go next year, the Sox could win 85-90 games. Everyone is healthy, everyone takes a step forward, no one regresses, etc. But, I'll put it this way: there are only two teams insisting on this strategy of spending inefficient FA money on 5 middle-of-the-road players instead of 2 elite ones -- and it's the White Sox and the Reds. That's your model. Basically the Pirates the last five years.

It’s a risk, but he was averaging a 2.7 fWAR the three previous seasons.

Pitchers never do well missing half the season, and he’s just one more example.  In fact, you can argue that extra rest will give an extra push like it did with Lance Lynn coming off a disastrous 2018 (bounced back to 4.7) to get him into the 3s and even low 4s.

Obviously, Wheeler was the more ideal player.  There’s no argument about his upside being higher...as well as his floor being much lower as well due to his injury history.  But we’re not the Yankees and we can’t carry the likes of Stanton, JA Happ and Ellsbury on the roster and still compete.   The reality is that the rebuild would be over before it started if Wheeler went down to injury again.  That’s a huge risk, even with insurance.

Grandal by fWAR was one of the thirty best players in baseball and #2 catcher behind Realmuto.   Unless you believe we were going to win that bidding war, Grandal was the right choice...along with the pre-existing synergy of being in his comfort zone with fellow Cuban players.

Complaining about Gio Gonzalez...I don’t think it was ever realistic they were going to sign Wheeler and then add Ryu/Keuchel/Bumgarner, so he’s as good a choice as any.

We keep winning the AL Central for 3 or 4 years, we’ve got as good a shot as any.

And putting all our eggs into the Machado, Rendon, Cole or Strasburg basket wipes out the possibility of team-friendly extensions for Moncada, Giolito, Robert and Madrigal (not to mention Kopech, Cease or Lopez.).  The White a Sox have always preferred rewarding their own players compared to overpaying free agents, but there wasn’t much choice if they wanted to compete this season.

[Eminor3rd]

1 minute ago, Moan4Yoan said:

You lost me here.  You mention that Hahn added a bunch of mid-tier players but seem convinced that McCann is the real deal?

Does not compute.

Not the real deal, just not among the holes the team actually needed to fill. 

[Moan4Yoan]

Just now, Eminor3rd said:

Not the real deal, just not among the holes the team actually needed to fill. 

McCann could very easily have been a hole in the lineup if he reverts back to the guy he has been for the majority of his career.  I’m guessing Hahn thought this as well and is one of the main reasons they pounced on Grandal.

[SoxAce]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

Not the real deal, just not among the holes the team actually needed to fill. 

You sound like Mike North with that statement. And Grandal qualifies as mid tier/okay player? C'mon, you're better than that.

[Eminor3rd]

Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

McCann could very easily have been a hole in the lineup if he reverts back to the guy he has been for the majority of his career.  I’m guessing Hahn thought this as well and is one of the main reasons they pounced on Grandal.

But between him and the fact that one of your org's better prospects is also a C/DH and really needs ABs -- it's way further down the list of priorities is my point. 

I know it's not as simple as this because there was WAY more than just money that went into these signings, but purely as a mathematical example:

Would you rather have:

1. Grandal/McCann (~$24M)
2. Keuchel (~$18M)

or

1. McCann/Collins (~$6m)
2. Cole (~$36M)

Because it's the same amount of money. Again, I don't think the White Sox could have signed Cole for $36m/yr, but it's just that this is the way this ends up with the White Sox every time. I just want them to do better then "well, at this point this move was the one left that made the most sense."

[SoxBlanco]

So many people continually claimed that Hahn had zero backup plan after missing on Wheeler. Well, signing Keuchel and Gio is a great backup plan. This is a very solid offseason so far. 

Lineup vs righties:

• Robert CF
• Moncada 3B
• Abreu 1B
• Grandal C
• Eloy LF
• Mazara RF
• Anderson SS
• Collins DH
• Madrigal 2B

Rotation:

• Giolito
• Keuchel
• Lopez
• Gonzalez
• Cease

[Eminor3rd]

9 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

You sound like Mike North with that statement. And Grandal qualifies as mid tier/okay player? C'mon, you're better than that.

I don't know who Mike North is, so, if that's an insult, I'm sorry but I'm not feeling it.

A large contingent of the industry, both in and outside the MLB, does not believe that pitch framing is valued correctly in the numbers that we are seeing. The fact that Grandal continues to sign deal way below what pitch-framing-infused WAR would suggest is strong evidence of that claim.

Maybe the White Sox are on the right side of this, but it would be the first time. Their track record for developing and valuing catchers is hilariously bad. 

All that said, he's still better than a mid-tier player, I'll grant that. But it's very likely he isn't actually a 6-win superstar. I'm glad they have him, but the money would have been better spent on elite pitching.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Eminor3rd